If you drafted Matt Forte, Steve Slaton, Brandon Jacobs or Clinton Portis with one of your top picks, I know what you're thinking.
You're thinking, "How in blazes did I manage to pass on Mike Bell not once, not twice, but (insert number of rounds in your draft here) times?!"
You can mix and match any two of those four Top 25 preseason picks and you still wouldn't have enough Fantasy points between them to match Bell's output so far in a standard-scoring league.
Keep in mind that we're talking about the long shot of long shots, a former undrafted rookie who thrived in his first year in the NFL with Denver simply because then-head coach Mike Shanahan liked his style, only to lose the job in his second year and ultimately bounce around the league until Saints coach Sean Payton dusted him off this summer. And, Bell has only been given the chance to play a lot because incumbent starter Pierre Thomas sprained his MCL.
Don't worry though -- Bell has an MCL sprain of his own, so Forte/Slaton/Jacobs/Portis all have the chance to gain ground on him. Good, the owners of Forte/Slaton/Jacobs/Portis are saying, let the Mike Bell owner deal with some trouble.
Well, they would be saying that if they weren't already panicking after drafting one or more of these two-week stiffs. While players like Michael Turner, Kurt Warner, Matt Schaub, Chris Johnson and Andre Johnson rebounded well after disappointing Week 1 efforts, Forte, Slaton, Jacobs and Portis kept on struggling.
Before those of us who own these players start trading them off for Raiders receivers and Seahawks running backs in acts of complete desperation, let's review not only why they were first- and second-round picks, but why they're off to slow starts.
Matt Forte, RB, Chicago
We liked him before the season because ... he was a total-yardage monster who not only saw his team improve his O-line, but his quarterback as well. With Jay Cutler under center and the Bears still committing to the run to a degree, Forte's potential was to top last year's totals.
We've disliked him so far this season because ... he's been grossly ineffective, rushing the ball 38 times for 84 yards (a sickly 2.2 avg.) with five catches for 33 yards -- all in Week 2. The Packers and Steelers shut him down in consecutive games though, so matchups have played a role in his struggles.
His outlook going forward is ... excellent, simply because his schedule lightens significantly through Week 9. Expect to see Forte deliver like a first-round pick now that he's gotten two tough matchups out of the way.
Bottom line: Trade for Forte if you can get him fairly cheap; hang on to him if you've got him.
Steve Slaton, RB, Houston
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| Steve Slaton was left behind as Houston aired it out in Nashville. (US Presswire) |
We've disliked him so far this season because ... he's stunk like rotten cabbage -- just 51 yards on 26 carries (2.0 avg.) with a glimmer of hope thanks to 60 yards on six catches. Worse yet, he's already matched last year's three fumbles, losing the ball once. But like Forte, Slaton's been saddled with challenging matchups: the Jets have proven that they'll be a defensive powerhouse and the Titans did a good job locking up the second-year back.
His outlook going forward is ... fairly good. Remember during the preseason when we said Houston's schedule was easy? It will be starting next week with back-to-back home games against the Jaguars and Raiders. Slaton has two truly challenging matchups left through Week 14: vs. San Francisco (Week 7) and vs. the Titans (Week 11). Everything else is smooth sailing, so like Forte, figure that Slaton is worth keeping for yourself.
Bottom line: Slaton's rock-bottom Fantasy value makes him worth grabbing now; if you've got him, ask for a healthy amount before letting go.
Brandon Jacobs, RB, N.Y. Giants
We liked him before the season because ... he was a hard-charging bully behind one of the best offensive lines in the league. Furthermore, the Giants were expected to run the ball a ton to make up for their suspect passing game.
We've disliked him so far this season because ... he's been not only tough to watch, but he's not landing the opportunities we expected him to have. Ahmad Bradshaw isn't the only one taking touches away from him -- Eli Manning has thrown over 30 passes in each of his two games so far and might keep it up with the emergence of Mario Manningham and Steve Smith.
His outlook going forward is ... pretty good. He's got a phenomenal schedule with the Bucs, Chiefs, Raiders, Saints and Cardinals coming up over the next five weeks. The only question is whether or not he'll have the opportunities to put up big stats. He seems like a No. 2 Fantasy running back right now, which is what he was drafted to be in most leagues.
Bottom line: If the price is right, getting Jacobs to be a No. 2 or 3 back is a good idea, as is trading him if you get enough for him.
Clinton Portis, RB, Washington
We liked him before the season because ... he was the star of the Redskins' offense, a position he thrived in last year before injuries to both himself and his O-line crippled his consistency.
We've disliked him so far this season because ... he's been a part of a terrible offense and is doing little to make it any better. Getting stuffed by the Giants for 62 yards on 16 carries is one thing, but managing just 79 yards on 19 reps against a Rams defense that made Julius Jones look like Jim Brown a week earlier is extremely disappointing.
His outlook going forward is ... not very exciting, thanks to an already-depleted offensive line, but there are some silver linings. Like everyone else, the Redskins' schedule is good through their next four games -- though they had the easiest matchup they could have asked for in Week 2 vs. the Rams and could only kick field goals. However, Portis is getting the chance to put up numbers and is averaging 4.0 yards per carry through two games. Will that do him any good if the rest of the offense sputters, though? Trading Portis away isn't advised since you'll pretty much have to give him away. Moreover, people who are in the market for a running back might shy away from Portis because of the perception that he's old (he's not) and because of the floundering Redskins offense.
Bottom line: If you drafted Portis, you're stuck with him for now.
Fantasy & Reality
Quick observations about the misconceptions (Fantasy) and truths (Reality) during the week's action.
Fantasy: Kevin Kolb will drag down the stats of Philly's receivers. Kolb's 391 passing yards and two touchdowns were insane, and it's a great indicator of not just how effective he could be some day, but how strong the Philadelphia offense is. By the way, Kolb's stats were good, but some of his passes were still awful. He missed on 20 attempts and threw three interceptions, so let's just say he's improving. If he does indeed start in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs, he's not a bad replacement for Donovan McNabb even if he gives up some snaps to Michael Vick.
Reality: The Texans' passing game is getting warmed up while the Titans' pass defense is falling down. I actually felt nervous ranking Matt Schaub 12th among quarterbacks for Week 2, but I guess it wasn't high enough. Houston's offensive line did a solid job protecting Schaub and giving him time to hit Andre Johnson over and over again. If anything, Houston further exposed Tennessee's secondary, which was believed to be a strength, but they've allowed back-to-back 350-yard passers. The good news for the Titans is that they play at the Jets and at the Jaguars over the next two weeks before hosting the Colts, so they'll have a chance to rectify their issues.
Fantasy: Frank Gore's offensive line is bad and the Seahawks' defensive line is good. How refreshing was it to see Gore rip off over 200 rush yards against Seattle? I mean if you didn't play against him in Week 2. Gore's line did a nice job opening up holes for him on both of his long runs and he flashed solid acceleration, especially for a big guy. No complaining about him as a first-round pick as he has four total touchdowns through two weeks, and his schedule gets very easy after a Week 3 duel at the Vikings. P.S. Absolutely start him in that game.
Reality: Kurt Warner might be old, but he's not rusty anymore. Everyone who drafted Warner can take a huge sigh of relief as he finally showed signs of breaking out of his preseason and Week 1 slump. Actually, he did much more than that thanks to his 24-of-26 passing show, completing an NFL-best 92 percent of his passes. That'll make up for his slow start, and it was encouraging to see him lean on Steve Breaston and Anquan Boldin more than Larry Fitzgerald. And, how about him completing passes to nine different receivers? Nice touch. Next week could be even better -- the Cardinals host the Colts in what might wind up being a barnburner.
Strategy Session
What in the world are we supposed to do with Willis McGahee?
Start him, of course. Next question.
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| With touches and goal-line work, McGahee is rejuvenated. (US Presswire) |
But in two games against two suspect run defenses, McGahee has done nearly all of the scoring with four total touchdowns -- two each week. And it's no wonder why -- he's been the Ravens' tailback inside their opponents' 10, not Le'Ron McClain. The Ravens have also used McGahee in an undefined rotation with Rice and McClain when they're not inside the 10, giving him more work. McGahee actually had practically twice as many carries as Rice and four more total touches.
You almost feel like there's going to be a dramatic drop-off with McGahee because his two-touchdown per game pace is not only unbelievable but unrealistic. OK, fine, that's true. But a 15-touch back weekly with goal-line work? That's not just startable Fantasy potential, kids, that's No. 1 Fantasy running back potential. And that's what he's been so far.
It's only going to get better too, for him and the Ravens: Between now and Week 11 he has exactly one difficult matchup (at Minnesota, Week 6). In that span he sees the Browns twice, the Bengals twice, the Patriots once (they're an iffy run defense right now) and the Broncos and Colts.
If you own him, start him. Simple as that. If you don't own him, get him but don't overpay. Or better yet, be sneaky and try to snare Rice on the cheap since he's still getting a lot of work but is getting overshadowed by McGahee's performances. Either way, the Ravens look like they're going to shatter the expectations we had for them before the season.
Which of these out-of-nowhere receivers are for real?
If you're looking at making a waiver-wire pick up this week, you have a lot of choices to make. Julian Edelman, Jacoby Jones, Johnny Knox, Mario Manningham, Laurent Robinson, Mike Sims-Walker and Steve Smith (the Giants one, not the Panthers one) are all staring you in the face. Who's legit? Who's set to struggle? Let's make some calls!
Julian Edelman, Patriots: A must-get if you have Wes Welker since he lined up for him not just against the Jets (targeted 16 times, most in Week 2) but also in the preseason. Had you been watching Fantasy Football Today, you would have known we talked about Edelman as a possible (albeit deep) replacement option for Welker. You don't really need him if you don't have Welker, but you could always put in the waiver claim and hold the Welker owner hostage for a guy off his bench, which is mean, but this is Fantasy Football we're talking about. If you're not trying to win every way possible, you're not trying!
Jacoby Jones, Texans: Jones has speed and decent size but is very inconsistent. But, so long as Kevin Walter is out, he's worth targeting as a flier. Once Walter returns Jones' playing time will be limited. He's at the bottom of my waiver-wire wish list.
Johnny Knox, Bears: In Week 1, Knox looked mostly like a one-trick pony as a speedster for Jay Cutler's deep lobs. But the Bears have moved him into the regular lineup strictly as a split end, not just for his speed but his ability to run good routes. That's still a work in progress, as is his knowledge of the playbook, but it seems like he's surpassed Earl Bennett as the No. 2 receiver in the offense. Look for defenses to jam him at the line and test his toughness in the coming weeks, but the Bears should react by finding other ways to utilize his speed. He's absolutely worth picking up off waivers and also worth a start at Seattle in Week 3 as a low-end No. 3 receiver.
Mario Manningham, Giants: Of these breakout receivers, Manningham is my favorite. Not only is he fast and a good route runner, but he's got all the opportunity in the world with the Giants. Eli Manning has been desperate to find a new go-to guy with Plaxico Burress no longer on the team, and judging by how often he's looked Manningham's way so far this season (13 targets against Dallas), Manningham might be his guy. Also, Manningham is used to being the big receiver in his offense, which is what he was at Michigan before being drafted by the Giants and kept inactive for much of 2008. Again, defenses will study him and try jamming him at the line of scrimmage, but Manningham has some muscle to him and should continue developing as more than just a No. 3 receiver in Fantasy. By the way, remember that easy schedule the Giants have coming up? Manningham will benefit from that.
Laurent Robinson, Rams: This is a good player with decent height but not a lot of size. He also has a history of hamstring injuries which could hamper his production at any time. But with no one else stepping up in St. Louis, and with the Rams expected to be behind pretty much every week of the season, Robinson might continue being good for five-plus catches per game. He's not a startable Fantasy receiver outside of deep leagues, but he'll fare well enough when the bye weeks start to be a viable low-end option.
Mike Sims-Walker, Jaguars: Jaguars offensive coordinator Dirk Koetter told me this offseason that he's rooting hard for Sims-Walker after an unfortunate series of events off the field held him back in 2008. But because of his efforts against Arizona in Week 2, quarterback David Garrard had a strong passing game and will likely keep gunning for Sims-Walker. Look, no one else in Jacksonville can make themselves a reliable target for Garrard, so you might as well consider Sims-Walker in the same vein as Robinson: a potential one-week replacement for your bye-week starters.
Steve Smith, Giants: The Giants have gone from no reliable receivers to two in the span of two weeks. While Manningham is the middle- to long-range target for Manning, Smith is essentially a version of Wes Welker -- a good-hands man who can run short- and mid-range routes with ease. If receptions count in your league, Smith is a fantastic choice, though I'd be surprised to see him available in those formats. He's useful in standard leagues too, but touchdowns seem to come few and far between for him.
One quick note: All of these receivers except for Edelman, Knox and Manningham are third-year receivers. Any coincidence? I think not.
Parting shots
• How can I go this deep into a column and not talk about Tom Brady's lackluster performance against the Jets? Was it because Randy Moss was blanketed by cornerback Darrelle Revis? No. Was it because Wes Welker was out of action? No. Was it because his running game couldn't get moving? Partially. Was it because he was never really comfortable in the pocket? Yep.
Last week we mentioned how Rex Ryan had always limited Brady's effectiveness and challenged him to complete more than 50 percent of his passes. It happened again in Week 2 as the Jets were constantly making contact with Brady, knocking him down after he threw a pass or sacking him outright. He might be Superman in New England, but Rex Ryan brought the Kryptonite. The Patriots will have their work cut out for them when the two meet again in Week 11.
• By the way, any defense that can cripple Matt Schaub and Tom Brady in back-to-back weeks immediately ranks high. Sorry if I'm stating the obvious here.
• Oh, the Jets take on the Titans in Week 3. Chris Johnson Fantasy owners: Dontcha dare expect another 284-total-yard, three-touchdown outing.
• We saw plenty more of Knowshon Moreno than expected, but the Broncos are still a passing offense. Only because of their big lead against the Browns did they choose to run the football for each of their final 13 plays. Because of that, and because Correll Buckhalter looks to be a part of the rushing mix in Denver, Moreno is still not usable as anything more than a low-end No. 3 Fantasy running back in deeper leagues.
• It's amazing. Jay Cutler leaves Denver and so do Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal.
• Nice job, Jake Delhomme. Make it three straight games against the Falcons with at least 290 passing yards. More of the same against the Cowboys?
• When was the last time two playoff-caliber teams entering a week on 10 days rest and 10 days to prepare for their respective opponents both lost?
• I don't know about you, but I wasn't expecting the Week 3 matchup between the 49ers and Vikings to be such a potentially pivotal showdown with playoff implications. Brett Favre's home debut, Adrian Peterson vs. Frank Gore, Gore vs. the Vikings run defense and Peterson vs. the 49ers run defense and Brad Childress' brain vs. Mike Singletary's -- what a chess match. And the winner is 3-0. Should be fun.
Dave is ready to either laugh at, ignore or answer your Fantasy questions/comments/complaints. Drop him a line at dmfantasyfootball@cbs.com. If you do write him, be sure to put Attn: Fantasy & Reality in the subject field and include your full name, hometown and state. Or, if you'd rather use something cool like Twitter to follow Dave, find him @daverichard.
