Game of the week
New England at Denver, 4:15 p.m. ET | 
End Zone: Broncos
The line: Patriots by 3½
The story: Well, well, well. Four weeks into the season and Josh McDaniels has more victories than mentor Bill Belichick. Now he has that rarest of opportunities, to take down The Boss himself, and you can't blame the guy if he wonders what he did to deserve all this. I mean, two months ago, outraged critics wanted McDaniels fired. Now, he's first in line at the Coach of the Year window.
McDaniels has turned the Broncos inside out by following Belichick's formula, which, basically, is don't beat yourself. That wasn't the case a year ago when Denver had 30 turnovers, including 18 Jay Cutler interceptions, and tied San Francisco for last in turnover margin at minus-17. One year later, they lead the league, thanks to an AFC-low three mistakes -- all of them fumbles.
The biggest difference is quarterback. Kyle Orton doesn't make the big plays that were Cutler's signature, but he doesn't make the big mistakes, either. Orton has five touchdown passes, no interceptions and a passer rating that surpasses you know who in Chicago. In short, he's everything McDaniels wants out of his quarterback because ... repeat after me ... he doesn't beat himself, winning seven of his past eight starts.
Of course, New England is the Broncos' toughest opponent yet and poses problems the league's stingiest defense hasn't encountered -- Tom Brady. He is beginning to look like the Tom Brady of yesteryear. So he's not producing mega-touchdowns. Give the guy time. With Wes Welker back, Brady is moving the chains again. Earlier this season, he and his teammates struggled to find rhythm and timing to their game; not anymore. If there's a hole with New England it's in a defense that is too soft against the run and a secondary that doesn't make interceptions.
If this becomes Brady vs. Orton, the Broncos are in trouble. If they maintain contact and take this deep into the fourth quarter, as they did against Dallas last Sunday, they have a chance … and a good one.
Something to consider: Since 2006, Brady has a 10-0 record in October, with 31 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a passer rating of 118.9.
Three games I'd like to see
Cincinnati at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET | SI.com: Game of the Week | Preview
The line: Ravens by 8½
The story: Pete Prisco told me Cincinnati was this year's Arizona Cardinals; that the Bengals had resolved their hard knocks on and off the field and were a legit playoff contender. So far, so good, Pete. Now comes the hard part: the next five games. The Bengals have Baltimore twice, Pittsburgh in Pittsburgh and home dates with Houston and Chicago. It's Hard Knocks, Part II, and if they survive, maybe the playoff watch is on.
Wait a minute ... playoffs? Playoffs? These are the Bungles for crying out loud -- a franchise that has made it to the playoffs once in the past 18 seasons. Because they share the same division with Baltimore and Pittsburgh, they're not supposed to be upwardly mobile, except ... well, except they beat the Steelers this season and, dating back to 2008, have won six of their past seven overall. That has people's attention, especially people in the 410 area code, with Baltimore armed and dangerous for a division showdown. You heard me. Showdown. These two share first place in the AFC North, so, sorry, Pittsburgh, it's winner take all ... at least for one week.
The difference in the Bengals is twofold: 1) Their defense is solid; 2) They finally have a running game. Cedric Benson has given them what others could not, a pulse rushing the ball. But Benson has been hurt this week (he missed practice Wednesday and Thursday with a sore hip) and may not be 100 percent for the game. No problem. He wouldn't be much of a factor anyway because running backs never are against Baltimore. So it's Carson Palmer vs. the Ravens' defense, and good luck there, Carson.
Chances are he plays from behind because the story in Baltimore is not the Ravens' defense; it's an uncharacteristically productive offense, with the team ranked third overall, third in points and sixth in passing. Joe Flacco is for real, people, and Cincinnati will discover why.
Something to consider: Baltimore's Willis McGahee has nine touchdowns in his past six games and aims for his seventh consecutive start with at least one score.
Atlanta at San Francisco, 4:05 p.m. ET
The line: 49ers by 2½
The story: Let's get this out of the way right up front: The team to beat in the NFC West is the 49ers. Elephants will fly, fish will walk and JaMarcus Russell will complete half of his passes the day the 49ers return to the top of their division ... only that day is here. I swear. The 49ers knocked off Arizona in Arizona. They overcame the Seahawks. They blanked the Rams. And they were within seconds of upsetting unbeaten Minnesota before St. Brett was called on for a last-minute miracle.
One quarter into the season, the 49ers look as if they're for real. Now we find out. Beating Atlanta would go a long way toward giving them the credibility they lost years ago, or since they thought it was a good idea to fire Steve Mariucci. Mike Singletary has the team playing so well that Michael Crabtree got tired of watching them on TV and decided to be part of the party. Hey, if you can't beat 'em, join 'em. Anyway, things haven't been this good for the 49ers since Terrell Owens left town. The club is winning. Players are happy. The division is theirs.
But careful, careful, careful. Atlanta is coming off a bye. Worse, the Falcons are coming off a convincing loss to New England two weeks ago. The Falcons are balanced, rested and determined not to fall further behind division-leading New Orleans. So I guess this is where we find out as much about them as we do San Francisco. One reason: Six of Atlanta's next eight games are on the road, with four or its next six opponents (Chicago, Dallas, Washington and the New York Giants) coming off byes.
Something to consider: Atlanta running back Michael Turner has 13 rushing touchdowns in his past 11 games. When Turner has 19 or more carries, his teams are 13-1.
Houston at Arizona, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Arizona by 5½
The story: I know this matchup isn't all that sexy, but look at the weekend's lineup of games. It's good only if you're watching baseball. I mean, Cleveland at Buffalo? Washington at Carolina? Oakland at the N.Y. Giants? Tampa Bay at Philadelphia? Minnesota at St. Louis? Puh-leeze. This is not what you would call must-see TV, unless it's the Yankees you're watching.
Nevertheless, I would check out this game to see Matt Schaub and Kurt Warner play tennis. Neither of these teams looks formidable, but their passing attacks do. Schaub already has two 300-yard games, and Warner is capable of dialing up a 300-yard half. Then there's Andre Johnson, Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin, Steve Slaton and Tim Hightower. In short, this is a Fantasy Football owner's love-in, with points, points and more points.
If Arizona is serious about shaking its Super Bowl hangover, it better win one at home. Look it up: The Cards are 0 for 2 in Arizona this season. When you have as much trouble traveling as this club, that's a ticket to the next fairway in January. Make this game a tossup: Arizona can't defend the pass, Houston can, but Arizona is at home.
Something to consider: In his past nine games, Fitzgerald has 55 catches for 958 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Monday night lights
N.Y. Jets at Miami, 8:30 p.m. ET
The line: Jets by 1½
The game: There is something about this game that isn't right. The Dolphins have one win. The Jets have one loss. Miami lost its starting quarterback. The Jets just added a Pro Bowl wide receiver. The Jets are thinking playoffs. The Dolphins are not. So why is New York only a 1½-point favorite?
Something is off. Maybe it's people deserting the Mark Sanchez bandwagon, I don't know. But I just don't see how Chad Henne solves a Jets defense when Drew Brees and Tom Brady couldn't. Even when Sanchez stinks, which is what happened last weekend, the Jets defense won't allow the club to crater.
So how does Henne punch holes in it? He doesn't. If the Dolphins pull the upset, Henne won't be the reason: running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will. The club will lean heavily on the league's top-ranked rushing game, which is its strategy every week -- and it almost worked against unbeaten Indianapolis.
The Dolphins overcame a slow start a year ago to win the division, and they must win here to get back in the race. One problem: They're counting on a virtual rookie at quarterback and a lot of variables to beat a confident opponent. I don't see it.
Something to consider: This is Jets pass rusher Calvin Pace's first game back from a league suspension. I mention this because Henne was sacked six times last week by Buffalo. Get ready to duck, Chad.
Crummy game of the week
Cleveland at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Bills by 5½
The story: This one is mildly interesting because of what's involved -- the futures of Bills quarterback Trent Edwards and coach Dick Jauron. Forget about Cleveland. With the trade of Braylon Edwards, the Browns made it clear they're looking at next year ... which they should. But the Bills might join them if Trent Edwards doesn't shape up and start completing downfield passes and if Jauron doesn't start winning.
Jauron already was on a short leash, and owner Ralph Wilson ... or Bills fans ... won't tolerate any more dull, listless and depressing losses. It's bad enough Buffalo must endure long winters each year. More bad football seems like cruel and unusual punishment. People want a change, and they want it now. I can only imagine the fallout if the Bills are as lackluster as they were a week ago in Miami.
Buck up, Bills Backers, the Browns are here, and they just might cure what is wrong with your team. Of course, I thought Chad Henne and the Dolphins might, too, and they shredded Buffalo. The Bills are an odd team that is beginning to unravel in the wake of injuries and an offense that is so ineffective we've eliminated the letters T and O from our conversations. It's time for Edwards and Jauron to do something about it. Winning is a start.
When Cleveland produced two offensive touchdowns last week, it topped their performance of the previous nine games. If you think it's tough living in Buffalo, try watching a Browns game once in a while. Derek Anderson is the quarterback for now, and, quick, list his top three receivers. If you said, "Jerome Harrison, Mike Furrey and Chansi Stuckey," you get to spend next weekend shagging one of JaMarcus Russell's incompletions.
Something to consider: Cleveland's Shaun Rogers leads the NFL all-time list with 10 blocked field goals.
Upset of the week
Atlanta over San Francisco (+2½) | Inside the NFL picks
I like teams coming off byes. Maybe it's because they win 60 percent of the time. But I especially like teams coming off byes playing the 49ers. Granted, this year's 49ers seem different, tougher, better.
Atlanta knows what it has to do, which is to get back to winning. Otherwise the Falcons are playing for a wild-card spot.
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The key here is the running game, and if Frank Gore were OK -- which he's not -- I might favor the home team. But I don't see Glen Coffee shredding the league's 25th-ranked rushing defense, and I don't see the Falcons fumbling, stumbling and bumbling as St. Louis did last week.
Of course, I don't see Michael Turner burning the 49ers, either. Basically it's Matt Ryan vs. Shaun Hill, and I make it Ryan in a photo finish.
Games within the games
New England coach Bill Belichick vs. Denver coach Josh McDaniels: Teacher vs. student. Forget the polished apple, Josh. A win would be nicer.
New York Jets coach Rex Ryan vs. Miami LB Channing Crowder: These two have been exchanging long-distance barbs for three months. Now it's up close and personal, and hallelujah.
Cincinnati WR Chad Ochocinco vs. Baltimore CB Dominique Foxworth: They're already at it, compliments of Twitter, with Ochocinco calling the Ravens cornerback "Vivica A. Foxworth." If that's the best Chad can do, the Bengals are in trouble.
New England WR Randy Moss vs. Denver CB Champ Bailey: Great receiver vs. great cornerback.
Houston Texans vs. the flu: Now it's linebacker Brian Cushing who is sick. The team's leading tackler, Cushing is the third Texan this week to come down with the flu.
Five guys I'd like to be
Baltimore QB Joe Flacco: He aims for his third consecutive 300-yard passing game at home.
Carolina QB Jake Delhomme: He has won 10 of his past 13 games in October, including seven of eight at home. He also has a passer rating of 110 or better in three of his past four starts in October.
New York Giants coach Tom Coughlin: He tries to improve to 5-0, the Giants' best start since 1990 when they won Super Bowl XXV. Now the good news: He gets to do it against the Raiders.
Minnesota QB Brett Favre: He has 19 career touchdown passes against the Rams and at least one in each of his 11 games. Favre will turn 40 on Saturday and becomes the 12th 40-year-old quarterback to start in the Super Bowl era (since 1966).
San Francisco QB Shaun Hill: He's 7-0 at home, with a 100.7 passer rating, 11 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Numbers, numbers, numbers
1: 300-yard passing game needed for Kurt Warner to reach 50 for his career
4: Consecutive wins for Tennessee at home in October
11: Kickoff returns for touchdowns for the New York Jets since 2001, an NFL high
13: Consecutive regular-season wins for Indianapolis
31: Points per game, Baltimore's average
69: Peyton Manning games with a passer rating of 100 or better. With one more, he becomes the third quarterback in league history with 70.
10-4: Shaun Hill's record as San Francisco's starter
13-1: Atlanta's record under Mike Smith when leading at halftime
Sunday weather watch
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• Baltimore: Partly cloudy, high of 65
• Buffalo, N.Y.: Partly cloudy, high of 52
• Charlotte, N.C.: Showers, high of 70
• Detroit: Dome
• Kansas City, Mo.: Partly cloudy, high of 48
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Partly cloudy, high of 63
• Philadelphia: Partly cloudy, high of 64
• St. Louis: Dome
• San Francisco: Mostly sunny, high of 67
• Glendale, Ariz.: Partly cloudy, high of 89
• Denver: Rain/snow showers, high of 45
• Seattle: Partly cloudy, high of 56
• Nashville, Tenn.: Partly cloudy, high of 65.
Where we will be
• Pete Prisco will be in Nashville to give Peyton Manning one quarter of his MVP award.
• I'll be in Baltimore to make sure officials don't dress the quarterbacks in skirts.
• Lee Rasizer will be in Denver to score the Great Debate, Belichick vs. McDaniels.
