Hitting 300: Pass for show, run for dough no longer formula

Think passing, and especially 300-yard games, and you usually think Indianapolis Colts quarterback Peyton Manning. So it was somewhat surprising late Sunday night, a half hour or so after he carved up the Tennessee Titans for his fifth consecutive 300-yard game, that a question stumped him far more than any of Tennessee's coverage packages did.

I asked Manning, as he dressed at his locker, why there have been more 300-yard passers winning this year than ever before.

The Colts are 9-0 when Peyton Manning throws for 300-plus yards in 2008 and '09. (Getty Images)

Manning thought for a second. Then he shook his head.

"I really don't know," he said. "I don't know why."

Only moments earlier, I had asked Colts president Bill Polian the same question. He has been around the league for over 30 years and has been close to some great passing offenses. He is usually enlightening on most issues involving football. But like his quarterback, he was perplexed.

"I have no real explanation for that," Polian said.

They might not know the reason, but they were interested in the numbers. This season, 300-yard passers are winning at a 74 percent clip, which the Colts have helped with their 5-0 record. The 300-yard passers have a 23-8 record, which includes a 5-1 mark last weekend. The only team that had one and lost (Houston) did so at the hands of a team (Arizona) with its own 300-yard passer.

The 23 victories by 300-yard passers are the most ever after five weeks, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. Fifteen is the next highest, and that came three times -- '01, '02 and '08.

"You see teams with emphasis on balance, but that stat shows you might want to re-think that," Jacksonville Jaguars receiver Torry Holt said. "You can win throwing the football for over 300 yards. That's a testament to the teams that are doing it. That's pretty impressive."

The perception for years has been that 300-yard passing teams were doing so because they trailed -- which usually meant they were on their way to a loss. As a result, it has become a number that is associated with losing.

But a look at the data since the start of the 2001 season shows that's not the case. In the nine seasons, only three times have there been more losing teams with 300-yard passers than winning teams. That happened in '03, '04 and '05. In the past three years, the percentage of wins for 300-yard passers went from 53 percent in '07 to 63 percent in '08 to the 74 percent this season.

"Right now the transition seems to be back to a passing league, which never breaks my heart," Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kurt Warner said. "But I don't know where it's headed. It depends on the trend with players and the innovation of coaches. Whatever teams do well they're going to do."

Teams are simply better throwing the football, which is why the numbers are up. In 1979, there was one team that averaged over 240 yards passing a game, San Diego. In 1989, there were five. In 1999, there were seven. This season, after the first five weeks, there are 14 teams averaging over 240 yards passing.

The Colts lead the NFL in passing yards with a 326.0 average per game. That puts them on pace to challenge the record of 327 yards per game set by the 2000 St. Louis Rams, with Warner throwing to guys like Holt and Isaac Bruce.

"Can you win in the playoffs throwing for 300 yards?" Holt said. "You probably can. We did in St. Louis."

There are many theories as to why this trend is evolving. In talking to league coaches and players, several were mentioned.

The rules changes were mentioned by most. The NFL has put more emphasis on protecting the quarterback, but also calling contact down the field on defensive backs. That leads to an easier passing game. Defensive players complain more and more every year -- see Ray Lewis -- that they can't even blow on a quarterback without getting a flag. That helps keep quarterbacks clean and upright to make the throws.

But the biggest influence, according to most of those queried, was the improved quarterback play. We're at a time where we have 10-12 star passers, players capable of putting their teams on their backs and winning with their arms. Think of the depth at the quarterback position. It's as deep as it's been for a long time.

"That influx of talent at that position has made a big difference," Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt said. "Look at those young guys who came in a few years ago in that one class. You have Ben Roethlisberger, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning. They're all playing at a high level."

They are a combined 4-1 this season in games throwing for over 300 yards.

Last year came Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco of the Baltimore Ravens. They are a combined 3-0 (Flacco is 2-0) when they throw for 300 yards this season.

Peyton Manning has thrown for over 300 yards in each of his first five games. One more and he will tie Steve Young and Warner for the six-game record to open a season. Manning is the biggest reason why the Colts are 5-0. His brother has the New York Giants at 5-0 and Drew Brees has the New Orleans Saints at 5-0.

"You look at the top teams and they have the big-time quarterbacks and they're winning," one coach said. "Now you know why the numbers are so high. Peyton helps it out with his five."

The aggression of offensive coordinators and coaches to throw on run downs is another reason mentioned for the success. More and more teams are playing to win, not to not lose.

That means taking more chances. With more teams loading up to stop the run, coordinators are being more aggressive.

"You have to be aggressive and want to score points in this game," Holt said. "Offensive coordinators are pressing the issue and upping the passing game."

Throw to score and run to win. That's what Whisenhunt did in the 2005 playoffs when he was the Steelers offensive coordinator. He had Roethlisberger throw early and the team ran it late. The result was a wild-card run through the playoffs to a Super Bowl victory.

"More and more teams are doing it that way," Whisenhunt said.

The increased use of the zone blitz is also helping the trend. It has forced the quarterback to get the ball out quickly, which can be a sort of pseudo running game. The Colts' top two rushers ran for a combined 49 yards in their victory against Tennessee last week, but they totaled 12 catches for 66 yards.

Teams also throw short to the outside receivers on slip screens and quick slants to help avoid the pressure.

"When you go see teams in the NFL now, you see a lot more short, quick, speed screens -- different things like that in the passing game that I don't think were a big part of the NFL in the past," Warner said. "As a result, 300-yard passers are a lot more prevalent than they were before. It used to be you were throwing the ball down the field. Now you get these hybrid players where you can throw them a quick screen and they can go 50 yards or 80 yards to the house.

"So I think you're seeing the design of the passing game change. Not that there aren't the big plays down the field, those are still there and always have been. But the added advantage now is people supplement their run game with the short, controlled, quick passing game. With that, it adds to the yardage and it helps you be successful on first and second downs to keep yourself manageable and keep drives going."

Said Holt: "You must get the ball out now. The zone blitz is a big part of that."

Whisenhunt offered an additional reason why he thought the trend is occurring. He said the reduced number of quality tight ends and fullbacks who enter the league has led to more passing.

Those players, Whisenhunt said, key the run game. Without them, it's tough to grind out the yards.

"A lot of times guys now are substituting them out for athletes, which helps the passing game and contributes to the 300-yard games," Whisenhunt said.

With all the success of the 300-yard passers, it doesn't mean the 100-yard rushers aren't winning as well. There have been 28 100-yard rushing games. Twenty-one of those rushers have been winners, while seven have lost. That's 75 percent, which is a tad better than the 300-yard passers so far.

Warner has 50 300-yard passing games in his career. Manning has 52. Brett Favre, who is 1-0 this season in his only 300-yard game, now has 56 for his career. Dan Marino is the record holder with 63.

Manning had 43 300-yard passing games in his first 10 seasons. He was 23-20. He's had nine in 2008 and 2009. His record in those games is a perfect 9-0, further illustrating a changing trend.

"It really is interesting that they are winning now," Atlanta Falcons coach Mike Smith said. "I can tell you that it wasn't always that way. It used to be people thought of 300-yard passers as playing from behind, trying to catch up. It sounds like that has changed."

Why? There are plenty of theories, but no definitive answers.

Pressed on the issue, Manning couldn't even come up with one.

"I'm not sure," he said. "I know we've had some success here with them, but I don't really know the answer."

Stumping Manning on something passing is like getting Edison on a light-bulb question. It must be a question that needs to be pondered even more. When the prodigy doesn't know the answer, it has to be a good one -- and one that bears watching the rest of the season.