Preseason mythology doesn't jibe with regular-season reality
By Pete Prisco | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow PeteWe've written a ton here at CBSSports.com about the Denver Broncos' 6-0 start. It's baffling, unexpected and hard to explain.
It also breaks one of the NFL myths of this season, which is this:
You can't trade away a franchise passer and expect to be better. The Broncos traded Jay Cutler to the Chicago Bears and actually improved. That defies logic.
But that isn't the only preseason myth that is being debunked by what has happened on the field.
There are many. Some of those I perpetuated, only to make me look like an idiot, which I'm sure many of you love.
Here's a look at a few of them.
The Ravens have a dominant defense.
The Ravens went 39 consecutive games without giving up a 100-yard rusher, then had two do it in back-to-back games the past two weeks. Cedric Benson went for 120 for the Bengals, followed by Adrian Peterson running for 143 Sunday for the Vikings.
It's worse than that.
Scan the NFL defensive rankings and you'll be shocked at how far down you find the Ravens: 17th.
Seventeenth?
So what's the problem?
The 100-yard games are just the tip of the problem. The biggest issue is the pass defense, or lack of it -- they rank 22nd.
The Ravens gave free-agent corner Dominique Foxworth a five-year deal with $16 million in guaranteed money. It had to be a red flag when the corner-needy Atlanta Falcons would only offer him $4 million in guarantees, and he was a starter for them last season.
Foxworth and fellow corner Fabian Washington have struggled, and the safeties haven't done a great job covering for them. Washington was benched last week against Minnesota in favor of Frank Walker, who didn't play much better.
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| Torry Holt has emerged as a key part of the Jags receiver corps in his first season in Jacksonville. (Getty Images) |
The Ravens lost defensive coordinator Rex Ryan to the Jets, but there are enough veterans that that shouldn't matter.
But it's hard to stop anybody when your corners can't cover anyone.
This certainly isn't the same, nasty defense we've come to expect of the Ray Lewis-led group.
Hines Ward and Torry Holt are old and slow.
Take a look at the top of the NFL receiving stats. Steelers receiver Hines Ward leads the NFL in receiving yards with 599, and he's tied for the lead in catches with the Giants' Steve Smith with 41.
Who's the idiot who predicted he was slowing down?
That would be me.
He was one of 10 players I listed in a preseason column who I thought wouldn't live up to the hype. He has more than done that.
Ward's 14.6 per-catch average is his best since becoming a starter in 1999. At 33, he seems to be getting better.
Slowing?
Holt's per-catch average is 15.1 yards, his best since 2001. He has 28 catches for the Jacksonville Jaguars to rank 12th in the NFL.
When Holt signed with the Jaguars as a free agent, it wasn't considered a big move. At 33, he was coming off his worst season with the Rams and some were saying he was done.
Holt laughed at that idea when I talked to him in the summer.
"I don't run like I did when I was 23, but I can still run," he said.
It seemed to bother Holt that Terrell Owens was getting all the attention as the big free-agent receiver to change teams. Owens has 15 catches for a 14.3 average for the Buffalo Bills.
The difference is that Holt never points the finger at himself. That's why for years, since he came into the league in 1999 with the Rams, he has always been a receiver who never gets the due he deserves.
The Wildcat will die in Miami.
OK, so this is a myth I championed loudly -- still do.
But I wasn't alone. After the Baltimore Ravens dominated the Wildcat in the playoffs last season, many coaches I talked with thought it would be a fad that would go away.
It hasn't. Yet. The Dolphins lead the league in rushing in large part because of the Wildcat, averaging 4.8 per carry.
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Ronnie Brown has 443 rushing yards, 194 courtesy of the Wildcat. As Chad Henne improves, the Dolphins might use the Wildcat less, but so far it has been working.
It's far from dead.
But I do have to remind Dolphins fans that the Wildcat worked to perfection against the Colts and they still lost. Why? Not enough explosive plays in the passing game. The Dolphins have an NFL-low seven pass plays of 20 yards or more.
If that doesn't change, none of the Wildcat success will matter.
Sack specialists will rule the pass-happy league.
When the season started, we expected players like DaMarcus Ware, Shawne Merriman, Mario Williams, Aaron Kampman and LaMarr Woodley to put up huge sack numbers. Their teams did as well.
That has been far from the case. Ware, who plays outside linebacker for the Dallas Cowboys, had 20 sacks last season. He has two in five games this season, which is two better than Merriman, San Diego's pass-rushing linebacker, who still hasn't scratched. Kampman, who had 21½ sacks combined in 2007 and 2008, has three for the Packers.
Williams, who had 26 sacks the past two seasons, has two in six games for the Texans. And Woodley, who I picked to be the Defensive Player of the Year, has two after getting 11½ in his first season as a starter in 2008.
Atlanta's John Abraham had 16½ sacks in 2008. He has three this season, only one since the team's opener against Miami.
So what gives?
"The ball is getting out quicker," said one NFC personnel director. "Quarterbacks are not sitting in the pocket as much. Teams are making sure the ball is out and those great pass rushers are getting doubled more. But some of those guys just aren't playing that well."
Roy Williams will make people forget Terrell Owens in Dallas.
When I went to the Cowboys camp this summer in San Antonio, I spent time with Williams. He's a likable guy. He talked about dealing with the fans who berated him on a regular basis last season because he wasn't producing.
He seemed sensitive.
He must really be that way now.
The Cowboys traded first-, third- and sixth-round picks to Detroit to get Williams last year, then gave him a six-year, $45 million contract. But he has not come close to emerging as the No. 1 receiver in place of Owens.
In four starts, Williams has 11 catches for 214 yards and one touchdown -- that coming in the opening game against Tampa Bay.
It looked like he was ready for a breakout season that day. He even seemed cocky in the locker room after the game.
But he has done little since and missed the Cowboys' last game Oct. 11 against the Chiefs because of a rib injury.
He is expected back this week against Atlanta, and if he wants to get the fans off his back, it's time he started producing like a No. 1 receiver.
Some quick-hit NFL myths we've seen debunked so far:
• The Denver Broncos will be a disaster without Jay Cutler. Oops.
• Joe Flacco and Matt Ryan would have sophomore slumps. They're even better.
• JaMarcus Russell is ready to take the next step. To the bench, maybe.
• The Tennessee Titans have a deep, talented roster and a star coach that will get them back to the playoffs. They're 0-6.
• The Colts will miss Tony Dungy in a big way. They're 5-0 under first-year coach Jim Caldwell, in large part because of Peyton Manning.
• Running the football is a better way to win. Of the top 10 passing teams, only one has a losing record. Of the top 10 rushing teams, three do.
• Giving Albert Haynesworth a $100 million contract would turn the Washington Redskins into Super Bowl contenders. How's that working out?
• That talent-rich San Diego roster would waltz to the AFC West title. They might not even make the playoffs. Talent? Where is it?
• The Atlanta Falcons would be shown to be a one-hit wonder. They're 4-1.
• Brett Favre would be a creaky old man. Not yet.







