Peek at the Week: Steelers, injuries might be too much for Vikings

Game of the week

Minnesota at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET | Winfield doubtful | Polamalu likely

The line: Steelers by 3½

The story: One of these days the Vikings are going to lose, and this looks like the day. I know, Brett Favre is rolling and just put away the Ravens. But Baltimore's defense is crippled by cornerbacks struggling in single coverage; the Steelers' defense is not. If there's a concern, it's the loss of defensive end Aaron Smith. The guy is vastly underrated, and Pittsburgh will miss his outside push. Nevertheless, the Steelers should pressure Favre as Baltimore did not ... or could not ... and will make it more difficult for him to find the receivers that were left alone a week ago.

The problem for Pittsburgh, of course, is that stopping Favre is not the key to beating the Vikings. Stopping Adrian Peterson is. And Baltimore missed there, too. Peterson ran through the Ravens for 143 yards, including one 58-yard dash, and when you uncork Peterson, your pass defense is compromised. But this just in: Peterson is still suffering from a twisted ankle and might be compromised by injury. Nevertheless, look for Pittsburgh to force Favre, not Peterson, to win this game. Translation: Look for Pittsburgh to concentrate on keeping the All-Pro back from gashing them with big plays. The Steelers have the ammunition -- they rank second against the run -- but, then again, so did Baltimore.

Minnesota will attack the Steelers similarly, forcing Ben Roethlisberger to throw more than he hands off to Rashard Mendenhall or Willie Parker. But that shouldn't be a problem because Pittsburgh hasn't been a running team for the past couple of seasons. Mendenhall has been effective, but the Steelers still rely on Big Ben to produce the game-changing plays. If Vikings cornerback Antoine Winfield doesn't play, Roethlisberger's chances of a big day just improved. With Winfield sidelined in the second half last weekend, Joe Flacco attacked replacement Karl Paymah with success. Afterward, Flacco mentioned that he "tried to take advantage of a couple of things out there," which is another way of saying he looked for Paymah.

If Paymah joins the starting rotation, you can count on Roethlisberger looking for him, too. The Vikings are weighing Paymah or nickel back Benny Sapp but haven't counted out Winfield. I wouldn't, either, after watching last weekend's finish.

Something to consider: The Steelers have won nine of their past 11 against teams currently in the NFC North, dating back to 1998.

Three games I'd like to see

Chicago at Cincinnati, 4:15 p.m. ET | SI.com: Breaking down the game | Preview

The line: Bengals by 1½

The story: What is it about Chicago and running backs? They have a decent back in Thomas Jones, but draft Cedric Benson. So they let Jones go. They turn the ball over to Benson and draft Matt Forte. Then let Benson go. Now Jones rips off a career-best 210 yards for the Jets, Benson is one of the league's top rushers and Forte ... well, he can't find the end zone with a divining rod. Worse, he fumbled twice on successive plays inside the 2 last weekend to undermine what little confidence the Bears have in him.

It figures. I don't get Chicago. In some way, I think the Bears were better off the way they operated a year ago. Then, they had a running game. Now they don't. And that will catch up to them down the stretch when the wind blows and the temperatures plummet. Jay Cutler has the big arm that coaches love, but having Cutler put the Bears in an identity crisis. They throw because they can. Critics say their offensive line is not as good as the offensive line blocking for Kyle Orton in Denver ... well, duh. You can back off the pass rush if you can run, but the Bears can't. So Cutler passes, passes some more and the Bears wonder what happened to them.

Only here, they might be OK, and I say that because of what Matt Schaub did to Cincinnati a week ago. I respect the Bengals' cornerbacks, and they were lights out against Baltimore. But the secondary was a problem last week, and if Schaub can find holes, Cutler can, too -- provided, of course, he gets the time. Cincinnati losing Antwan Odom just might have guaranteed that.

The subplot to this game is Benson against his former teammates. He said something this week about the Bears "blackballing" him after he left, and who knows if it's true? The Bears insist it's not. All I know is that he better have his helmet strapped on tight. A target was just applied to his jersey, and he put it there.

Something to consider: Cincinnati coach Marvin Lewis is 5-0 against the NFC North.

Atlanta at Dallas, 4:15 p.m. ET

The line: Cowboys by 3½

The story: The Cowboys hold the advantage here because they're home and they're rested coming off a bye. Teams with byes are 6-2 in their first games back this season, but the bad news is that the past two that played -- Chicago and San Diego -- were losers. Dallas could join them if it's not careful. You don't make mistakes against Atlanta and survive, and I call Chicago's Lovie Smith as my first witness.

I like the Cowboys here because they had a chance to get Roy Williams, Felix Jones and Marion Barber rested and healed from injuries. Trust me, Tony Romo needs all the help he can get. Williams must be a bigger factor in the passing game, and Jones will be a big factor in the run and pass attacks. Barber is the hammer, able to move the pile when Dallas needs it, while Jones has the explosion that keeps defenses honest. These guys can do to Atlanta what Chicago did not, which is puncture it with the run. That will open things for Williams, Jason Witten and Miles Austin and should keep the Cowboys ahead of the game.

The question, of course, is how the Dallas defense holds up against Matt Ryan. Atlanta has a balanced attack, but Ryan is capable of producing a breakout game. In Atlanta's crushing defeat of San Francisco, he threw for a season-best 329 yards. The key: He wasn't sacked. And that will be important here. Ryan hasn't been sacked in any of his past four games.

Something to consider: Dallas is tied for last in takeaways with four, including a league-low two interceptions.

Arizona at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Giants by 6½

The story: This is Kurt Warner's second visit to the New York area in two seasons, and he can only hope this one goes better than the last. I'm talking about the Cards' 56-35 loss to the Jets last season, a laugher where New York jumped to a 35-0 lead at the half and where wide receiver Anquan Boldin was demolished at the goal line -- suffering a concussion that had Warner thinking about quitting the game.

I don't foresee another blowout because I don't foresee Warner struggling with this pass defense. Drew Brees didn't, and the Giants are on red alert with their secondary. If they can't rush the passer, they're in deep doo-doo, and they couldn't rush the passer a week ago. They should have less trouble this weekend: 1) Because they will emphasize it; 2) Because the Cards' pass protection isn't all that good; 3) Because Warner holds the ball longer than Brees.

I've given up looking for an Arizona running attack. It's not going to happen. This is a one-dimensional offense, which is another reason the Giants will able to defend more effectively than a week ago. All I know is the New York area is wondering if last weekend's loss was a barometer of who the Giants are and where they are headed. This is one place to get an answer.

New Orleans can beat you on the ground, in the air or with its defense. The Cardinals don't have as many weapons, though I'll take Larry Fitzgerald over any wide receiver in the game. With Boldin hurt, he might be on his own again, and that's not necessarily bad. Look what happened in last year's playoffs. The Giants will score on these guys. And they might score a lot. The question is: How will they defend Warner?

Something to consider: Arizona is 2-0 on the road this season, including one victory in the Eastern time zone. It's the first time since 1991 that they won their first two road games.

Monday night lights

Philadelphia at Washington, 8:30 p.m. ET | End Zone: Calling your own shots

The line: Eagles by 6½

The story: Forget Donovan McNabb and the "debacle," as Andy Reid described last weekend's embarrassment in Oakland. This game is all about one team and one guy -- Jim Zorn, come on down. The Redskins head coach is inching closer and closer to the finish line in Washington, though Redskins vice president Vinny Cerrato said Friday he will remain as coach through "the rest of this season and hopefully into the future."

The Redskins haven't just lost two of three home games. They've been unwatchable, failing to score a touchdown in two of them and incurring the wrath of spectators, most of whom left the building after they tired of booing. It really is an achievement to turn Washington's fans on their football team, but Zorn seems to have done it. So has owner Daniel Snyder, who hasn't really offered support other than to suggest Sherman Lewis assume the play calling.

That's great, except Sherman Lewis has been out of football for years and doesn't really know this team. Yeah, he knows the offense, but tell me what kind of rapport he has with quarterback Jason Campbell, wide receiver Santana Moss and running back Clinton Portis. He hasn't been around long enough. And his reputation as a play caller in previous stops was marginal. Lewis is a great guy, but he's not regarded as a great play caller.

With a bye next for Washington, speculation has focused on Zorn's firing. Unless he pulls this team out of its funk -- he is 2-4 against opponents who were winless when they played Washington -- he's doomed. He should start looking for a Realtor now, because the chances of him escaping the pink slip are about as good as Vince Vaughn winning an Oscar.

Something to consider: Jason Campbell fans, listen up: The Eagles are tied for first in interceptions with 11 and have three players with multiple picks, best in the NFL.

Crummy game of the week

Buffalo at Carolina, 4:05 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Panthers by 7½

The story: Carolina is on a two-game roll, and so what if it came at the expense of bottom feeders Tampa Bay and Washington? You win the games you should win. And this is a game the Panthers should win.

First of all, there are all sorts of Buffalo injuries, beginning with quarterback Trent Edwards' concussion. Second, the Panthers are back to what they do best: RUNNING THE FOOTBALL. I don't know where they get the idea that Jake Delhomme is Peyton Manning waiting to happen, but enough with the passing. Give the ball to DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart (provided his Achilles isn't bothering him), and let them soften opposing defenses for Delhomme.

I don't care if Steve Smith is upset. I don't care if he thought he was going to be traded. He's there and he's a weapon if the Panthers need him. They shouldn't against this team, and here's why: The Jets ran for 318 yards on Buffalo last weekend, including a franchise-best 210 by Thomas Jones. That doesn't exactly bode well for the Bills this week, with Carolina controlling the football, the clock and the game. Look for Ryan Fitzpatrick to play come-from-behind football, which means more Terrell Owens sound bites and almost surely another Bills loss.

Something to consider: Carolina has won nine of its past 10 home games and scored 20 or more points in each of those victories.

Upset of the week

Miami over New Orleans, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Saints by 6½

The story: I admit it, I'm stepping off the edge here. This is a leap of faith -- and I'm talking 60-foot header, people -- in the Dolphins' Wildcat offense. But Miami came this close to beating Indianapolis and is on a two-game roll. It also is 2-1 at home and coming off a bye. Plus, there is bound to be an emotional letdown for the Saints after last weekend's big defeat of the then-unbeaten New York Giants.

Anyway, the elements are there. I know, I'm taking a virtual rookie at quarterback over Drew Brees. That not only is dangerous, it's downright foolish. Except I'm not. Chad Henne won't win this game. The Wildcat will. You beat the Saints by eliminating your mistakes and keeping Brees off the field. So how does that happen? Meet Ronnie Brown. He runs the Wildcat so effectively that the Dolphins are the league's No. 1 ranked rushing offense.

I listen to the Dolphins bristle at the talk of New Orleans and its unbeaten season and the magnificence that is MVP candidate Brees, and it reminds me of when then-unbeaten Chicago met the 1-6 Dolphins in 2006. The Bears lost. Maybe the Dolphins can do it again, but I'm counting on Miami to pull off something it hasn't all season: force turnovers. It only has four, tied for last in the league.

I know this is a reach. I was more tempted to try something like Oakland over the Jets because of the Jets' West Coast run last year (0-4) and because Tom Cable just scored his first win off the field. But if linebacker Joey Porter is going public with talk that the Dolphins have a chance I will listen. The last time I remember him making bold predictions, the Dolphins shredded New England ... at New England. It could happen.

Something to consider: The Saints have never trailed in a game this season and haven't allowed an opponent closer than 14 points. The closest anyone has been was Philadelphia, which tied them shortly before halftime of a 48-22 loss. If Miami can keep it close it is to its advantage. Since the beginning of last season the Dolphins have been involved in 11 games decided by a touchdown or less.

Games within the games

Cincinnati RB Cedric Benson vs. Chicago Blackballers: Benson was the featured back in Chicago, but he never lived up to expectations. So the Bears cut him, and he was out of football for months. Why? The way Benson told it this week it's because he was "blackballed" by the Bears, which Bears coach Lovie Smith emphatically denied. Very interesting. Chicago's next response comes Sunday.

Miami LB Joey Porter vs. New Orleans' cowboys: Porters said he wants to knock the Saints "off the high horse and try to bring them down." Well, good luck trying to lasso Drew Brees & Co. You can stop Brees, but you can't slow down that offense.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin vs. his former team: Tomlin coached the Vikings' defense, and there are some Minnesota fans who wish he had been hired as their head coach. That's what winning a Super Bowl will do for you. Anyway, this is Tomlin's chance to, let's say, reacquaint himself with some of his former players.

Washington coach Jim Zorn vs. play caller Sherm Lewis: The play calling can't be worse than it has been the first six games ... can it? We're about to find out.

San Francisco WR Michael Crabtree vs. rust: The guy hasn't played a game and didn't take part in one "nutcracker drill" after skipping training camp and the first part of the season. So what did it cost him? Nothing. Crabtree almost surely starts Sunday, and I wonder what message that sends to players who have been busting their butts. "I think the most important message is that we want to win," coach Mike Singletary said. "You don't have to be a Phi Beta Kappa to figure it out. If the guy can play, if he can make plays, put him on the field." Crabtree would replace Josh Morgan.

Five guys I'd like to be

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers: In five career October starts, he has completed 72 percent of his passes for 10 touchdowns, three interceptions and a passer rating of 110.3. He also looks for his fourth consecutive 100-plus passer rating this season.

Poll What is the best game of Week 7?   74%  Vikings at Steelers     7%  Bears at Bengals     9%  Falcons at Cowboys     7%  Cardinals at Giants     3%  Eagles at Redskins     Total Votes: 81584

San Diego LB Shawne Merriman: He has four sacks in his past two starts against Kansas City.

Pittsburgh QB Ben Roethlisberger: He has a 9-1 record vs. the NFC at home.

New England QB Tom Brady: Dating back to October 2005, he is 12-0 vs. the NFC with 30 touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 109.9. He also has won 11 of his past 12 starts in October. And now the really good news: He gets to play winless Tampa Bay.

Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell: With a defeat of St. Louis, he moves to 6-0 as a head coach, tying him for the best start by a rookie head coach since 1970. Denver's Josh McDaniels got there earlier this week.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

1: Shaun Hill interceptions vs. AFC
3: Consecutive games with a Rashard Mendenhall touchdown
4: Consecutive Houston home wins vs. NFC
4: Consecutive games where Chicago rookie Johnny Knox has scored, the first time that happened for a Bears rookie since Walter Payton did it in 1975.
6: Consecutive games in October where Michael Turner has scored.
9: Consecutive wins by Pittsburgh at home, including playoffs.
14: Consecutive regular-season victories for Indianapolis, dating back to last year.
38.4: Scoring average of the New Orleans Saints, best in the NFL.
13-0: Record of Jay Cutler's teams when he has a passer rating of 100 or better.
48-7: Colts' record when Peyton Manning throws two or more TDs.

Sunday's weather watch

• London, England: Mostly sunny, 61 degrees
• Charlotte, N.C.: Mostly sunny, 69 degrees
• Cincinnati: Sunny, 61 degrees
• Cleveland: Partly cloudy, 53 degrees
• Dallas: Partly cloudy, 69 degrees
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly sunny, 62 degrees
• Houston: Partly cloudy, 80 degrees
• Kansas City, Mo.: Showers, 54 degrees
• Miami: Isolated thunderstorms, 87 degrees
• Oakland: Mostly sunny, 75 degrees
• Pittsburgh: Mostly sunny, 54 degrees
• St. Louis: Dome

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in Pittsburgh to try to find Bread Favre on the menu at Primanti Brothers.
• I'll be in Cincinnati to demand an explanation from resident Peter Frampton for that cut-and-run performance at the Stone Pony in Asbury Park, N.J.