Game of the week
Minnesota at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m. ET | 
End Zone: Week 8 Look Ahead
The line: Packers by 2½
The story: If you think the nation has a tough time warming up to the Vikings, you're right. This is the second straight week they're an underdog. I don't know if that's a shot at the NFC, Brett Favre or the team itself, but Minnesota has the second-best record in its conference and, until last week, was undefeated. The Vikings are a good club, but oddsmakers don't believe they are as good as Pittsburgh or Green Bay -- at least when they play them on the road.
They were dead on with the Steelers. But this is Favre returning to Green Bay, which makes things different, right? I'm not so sure. I was on a Green Bay radio station earlier this week when one of the guys said that having the Packers play Favre once already lessened the impact of this game. I'll second that. You should be used to seeing No. 4 in a Minnesota uniform by now, and I know Wisconsin is.
That doesn't mean Packers fans have to like it or even accept it. On the contrary, I expect Favre will be booed, heckled, cursed and basically treated like the traitor Cheeseheads believe he is. In fact, former Green Bay safety LeRoy Butler told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel this week that fans should not cheer the guy; they should boo him, just as they would another quarterback standing between the Packers and first place in their division.
And that's what this is all about, folks -- the division. If you can forget about how personal the game is for No. 4, you must remember that first place in the NFC North is at stake. Minnesota can put more distance between it and Green Bay with a victory, but the Packers will climb within a half-game of the Vikings if they win.
For me, the key is not Favre; it's Favre's successor, Aaron Rodgers. When the two met four weeks ago, he was harried, hurried and harassed by unblocked pass rushers and sacked a season-high eight times -- including 4½ by Jared Allen. That better change. A week ago, Rodgers was not dumped, but a week ago he faced Cleveland. Now it's Allen again, and this just in: He probably goes against a rookie, left tackle T.J. Lang, and Rodgers is advised to pay attention. If Lang and whoever helps him can slow down Allen, Rodgers can find holes in the Minnesota secondary -- especially with Antoine Winfield sidelined.
Joe Flacco did. Ben Roethlisberger did. Hey, Rodgers did, too, even when Winfield was in there. The last time these two met, he threw for a career-best 384 yards. The Packers lost that game, but they lost after Rodgers was treated like a piñata, took a safety, committed two turnovers and the Packers were stopped on the goal line. Yet they lost by only seven. If I'm Green Bay, that gives me hope there is something better around the corner. If I'm Brett Favre, I'm pumped again. He was nearly perfect in his first go at his ex-team, and you have to believe he'll be a virtual Energizer Bunny this time around. The question is: Will the Packers cooperate?
Something to consider: Rodgers, who had a career-best passer rating of 155.4 a week ago, aims for his fifth consecutive game with a rating of 100 or better.
Three games I'd like to see
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Eagles by 2½
The story: This is the second-biggest game involving these two cities. The main event is the Yankees and Phillies, and it takes place next door seven hours after kickoff. Lucky for the Giants and Eagles. The World Series takes the heat off the loser of this game, and the Giants are the early favorites to sit in that chair. Three weeks ago, they looked like the best team in football. Now they're in a serious backpedal after getting exposed by New Orleans and floundering against Arizona.
In both losses, the problem was the same -- not enough defense. The Giants D isn't what it used to be. What it used to be was an aggressive, ball-hawking, quarterback-sacking hornet's nest. Not anymore. The past two weeks it has two sacks, two takeaways and two losses. Drew Brees and Kurt Warner found holes galore in the secondary. That will happen if you can't pressure the quarterback. The Giants can. They just haven't.
Fortunately for them, they're running into a quarterback who is not Drew Brees or Kurt Warner. Donovan McNabb runs hot and cold, and right now he's running cold. He looked awful against the Raiders and wasn't all that sharp against Washington. He has the playmakers on the outside he demanded in the offseason, and tight end Brent Celek has been a consistent over-the-middle threat. But McNabb must do his part and deliver them the football. Right now, he's all over the place, and if Brian Westbrook doesn't play -- it appears he will not -- McNabb will have to rely on his erratic right arm and the legs of rookie LeSean McCoy.
Something to consider: Eli Manning is 4-0 in regular-season starts in Philadelphia, with no victory by more than six points.
Denver at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET | SI.com: Game of the Week
The line: Ravens by 3½
The story: This is a little puzzling. Denver is unbeaten and coming off a bye. Baltimore has lost three straight and is coming off a bye. Denver's defense is nearly bulletproof, allowing the fewest points in the NFL. Baltimore's defense is discombobulated, with its corners struggling to play in single coverage. So who's the favorite? Why, Baltimore, and let me explain with these simple words: The Ravens are desperate and they are home. Desperate home teams are dangerous teams.
There, that does it. Baltimore is not the better team here. Denver is. But Baltimore is beginning to feel the squeeze of a season going south. The Ravens must make a stand, and they must make one now. Not only are they a game behind AFC North leaders Cincinnati and Pittsburgh in the loss column; they have a murderer's row awaiting them the next five weeks. First there's Denver. Then Cincinnati ... in Cincinnati. Then Cleveland, followed by Indianapolis, Pittsburgh and Green Bay. I haven't seen a path this brutal since I drove I-95 on Thanksgiving. If I'm John Harbaugh, I order 45 life preservers and tell my players to hold on.
The key for Baltimore is getting the early lead and keeping it. One thing we know about Denver is that nobody scores on the Broncos in the second half. They've allowed 10 second-half points the whole season and no second-half touchdowns in the past five games. The good news for Baltimore is that left tackle Jared Gaither is back, which means Michael Oher can return to the right side. The bad news is Elvis Dumervil is coming to town, and nobody has figured out how to slow him down.
Basically, the Ravens must play a near-perfect game to win. They can't afford any gaffes, and they must force an opponent that doesn't turn the ball over to turn it over. Good night and good luck.
Something to consider: Denver has a 15-5 record after a bye week, best in the AFC and third best in the NFL behind Philadelphia and Minnesota.
Miami at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Jets by 3½
The story: Put the clock on this one. The game involves the two best rushing offenses in the league, which means it should fly. Miami has been on a roll lately and should've beaten New Orleans a week ago. But it didn't, and now it faces a Jets team it overcame earlier this month ... by running the ball, of course. Almost nobody does it better than the Dolphins. The Jets are the one team that does.
In the past two weeks, New York has shredded opponents for 634 yards with Thomas Jones, Leon Washington and Shonn Greene. Washington is out for the season, which means more carries for Jones and more glimpses of Greene. That is nothing but welcome news for rookie quarterback Mark Sanchez, who could use help in getting the load off his shoulders. Sanchez all but took last weekend off, handing off to his backs and throwing 15 times in a laugher against Oakland, and he would like to do it again.
I don't think he will get the chance. The Dolphins are better than you think. Chad Henne is playing well and was nearly perfect (20 for 26) against the Jets. But he won't determine this club's path. Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams will. For everyone who thinks the "Wildcat" is a gimmick, I ask you to watch it run by these guys. It devours yards and opponents.
The Jets were one of those opponents, and they haven't forgotten that night. Brown danced after the game-winning touchdown and the Dolphins gloated. Coach Rex Ryan reminded his players this week of something Brown said afterward, with the Dolphins back telling reporters that the game proved who had the tougher 11 men on the field. Ryan didn't like that. He hopes his players don't either. "We'll see what happens Sunday," he said.
Something to consider: Miami has won six of its past seven vs. the AFC East.
Monday night lights
Atlanta at New Orleans, 8:30 p.m. ET
The line: Saints by 9½
The story: I'll make this one short and sweet. If Atlanta couldn't figure out Tony Romo -- which it didn't -- how does it stay with Drew Brees and New Orleans? Romo punched holes everywhere in the Falcons secondary last weekend, and it's that secondary that could keep Atlanta from moving to the next level.
New Orleans has won five of its past six against the Falcons, including its past three at home, and those teams weren't nearly as sound as this one. The Saints keep proving they're the best team in the NFC, but that isn't Atlanta's concern. The Falcons must demonstrate that for one night, at least, they're the best team in their division.
Unless they can control the clock and play flawless football, I don't see how. Miami should've beaten the Saints but suffered second-half screw-ups, with the Saints returning two interceptions for touchdowns. Atlanta can't afford similar mistakes and must keep Brees off the field.
Yeah, I know the club hasn't suffered back-to-back losses under coach Mike Smith, but there's always room for a first. And this is it. Mike, you're about to earn your paycheck.
Something to consider: Matt Ryan is 11-3 in indoor games and has a passer rating of 113.9 in two starts vs. New Orleans. When his rating exceeds 100, the Falcons are 8-0.
Crummy game of the week
St. Louis at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Lions by 3½
The story: The Lions are bad. The Rams are worse. There's one victory between these two this season and three between them in two seasons. Bad? No, atrocious. The Lions lost 19 straight before pulling out of their skid. The Rams are on a 17-game bender. It's a remake of The Longest Day, starring two of the worst franchises in recent league history, and no wonder Matthew Stafford wants to play. I would want to suit up against these guys, too.
So where's the upside? Well, here: More than a high draft position is at stake here. The way I see it, the Rams have two chances for victories the rest of the way. This is one of them. A Dec. 13 date with so-far winless Tennessee is another. Otherwise, they do what the Lions did a year ago and circle the bases without touching any of them.
Something to consider: Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson has five touchdown catches in his past seven November starts.
Upset of the week
New York Giants over Philadelphia (-2½) | Inside the NFL: Insider's picks
The story: Big Blue hasn't been the same since losing safety Kenny Phillips, with New Orleans and Arizona shredding their secondary. But Donovan McNabb hasn't exactly looked like Norm Van Brocklin lately, either. Other than the occasional bomb to DeSean Jackson, McNabb has been off his game -- missing open receivers and failing to sustain drives.
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If he plays as he did the past two weeks, the Eagles are in trouble. They probably won't have running back Brian Westbrook, which means rookie LeSean McCoy carries the rushing attack. McCoy is solid, but he is not Westbrook. They also could be without safety Macho Harris, so Sean Jones may get a crack at starting.
But that's not why I like the Giants here. This is: Eli Manning usually doesn't lose in Philadelphia, and the Giants rarely lose three straight under Tom Coughlin. Manning has won all four regular-season starts in Philly, losing only in the 2006 playoffs there, and the Giants haven't dropped three straight since the middle of the '06 season.
Frustrated Giants fans are beginning to wonder if the sky is falling, and usually when that happens the Giants respond. I say they respond here and now.
Games within the games
Minnesota QB Brett Favre vs. Cheeseheads everywhere: This is Joe Montana playing the 49ers all over again, but with one difference: Montana didn't have to return to Candlestick Park; Favre is back at Lambeau, and look for this to be ugly. As one Green Bay guy told me, a year ago fans were split 50-50 on Favre; now, they're 95-5 against. I imagine it will be more like 100-0 inside the stadium. Sorry Brett, but this is what you bargained for when you made your choice.
Minnesota DE Jared Allen vs. Green Bay LT T.J. Lang: Chad Clifton probably won't play, which means the rookie will. He took extra reps in practice this week in anticipation of making the start and was part of an offensive line that allowed no sacks last weekend. But that was Cleveland. This is Jared Allen and the Vikings. Whoever the left tackle is, he will need help.
Detroit offensive coordinator Scott Linehan vs. the St. Louis Rams: Linehan was the head coach of the Rams at the start of last season, but he was gone after three games. The club fired him with an 11-25 record. Linehan said playing them is no big deal and that he doesn't feel "anything emotionally toward this game." Yeah, sure. If you believe that I have a pair of World Series tickets at Fenway Park to sell you.
Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb vs. the 2008 playoffs: When the Eagles played the Giants in the divisional round last season, McNabb ran out of bounds and playfully picked up a telephone on the Giants sideline. That didn't go over well with the losers, who are talking about it now that they face McNabb again. Maybe the Giants should try the phone themselves, dialing up a victory for a change.
Tennessee QB Vince Young vs. the past: Young makes his first start since the beginning of last season, and we all know what happened then. I don't know who pushed the button here, but owner Bud Adams was adamant Young should be given a chance. He should. I know the Titans aren't enthralled with the guy, but what do you have to lose? Another game? The season is gone anyway. Time to find out what Young has to offer.
Five guys I'd like to be
Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning: He needs five completions to become the fourth player in history with 4,000.
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Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney: He aims for his eighth straight game with a sack.
Denver LB Elvis Dumervil: He has two or more sacks in four of his past five games.
Houston TE Owen Daniels: He aims for his fourth consecutive game with seven or more catches.
San Diego QB Philip Rivers: He gets to play Oakland again, and that's a win. Rivers is 7-0 in his career against the Raiders and has seven touchdown passes in his past three starts against them.
Numbers, numbers, numbers
9: Career 100-yard games for LaDainian Tomlinson vs. the Raiders
10: Consecutive games the New York Giants have won when Justin Tuck has a sack
11: Consecutive wins in November for Dallas QB Tony Romo
12: Consecutive wins for San Diego against Oakland
45: Minimum number of points scored by New Orleans in four of its first six games
634: Yards rushing for New York Jets the past two weeks
142.1: Kyle Orton's fourth-quarter passer rating, best in the NFL
4-0: Jake Delhomme's regular-season record vs. Arizona
6-19: Dick Jauron's record vs. teams with winning records when they face Buffalo
41-1: Philadelphia Eagles' record when Donovan McNabb has a passer rating of 100
49-7: Indianapolis' record when Peyton Manning has two or more TDs
Sunday's weather watch
• Baltimore: Partly cloudy, high of 63
• Buffalo, N.Y.: Few showers, high of 48
• Chicago: Partly cloudy, high of 48
• Dallas: Sunny, high of 68
• Detroit: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Showers, high of 57
• Indianapolis: Partly cloudy, high of 52
• Philadelphia: Few showers, high of 71
• Glendale, Ariz.: Sunny, high of 86
• San Diego: Sunny, high of 74
• Nashville, Tenn.: Partly cloudy, high of 61
• Green Bay, Wis.: Partly cloudy, high of 47
Where we will be
• Pete Prisco will be in Baltimore to remind me why losing Jay Cutler was such a bad thing for Denver.
• I'll be in Philadelphia to audition as a reliever for the Yankees
• Mike Freeman will be in Green Bay to help Brett Favre decide on that flat-screen TV.
• Larry Holder will be in New Orleans on Monday to christen the new "Greatest Show on Turf."
