Peek at the Week: Patriots prepared to exploit Colts' weakness

Game of the week

New England at Indianapolis, 8:20 p.m. ET

The line: Colts by 2½

The story: This has become the NFL's best rivalry, pro football's version of Red Sox vs. Yankees. They play every year, and sometimes they play twice. In fact, this is the seventh straight season the two have met, with the two squaring off twice three times in the past six seasons. Hey, bring it on. The more, the better. It's not only great for the sport, it's great for all of you tired of waiting on another Detroit-Minnesota blowout.

There are a couple of things to remember here: First of all, this game is usually close. A year ago the Patriots kept it within three despite no Tom Brady; the year before that the Colts nearly prevailed without six starters, including two linebackers and wideout Marvin Harrison. The past four games have been decided by a total of 18 points, with the Colts winning three of them. They have won four of the past five in this series, so all those questions we once posed about Bill Belichick getting in Peyton Manning's head ... uh, put them on permanent hold.

Second, Indianapolis is ready for a fall. San Francisco nearly beat the Colts two weeks ago; Houston should have won last week. Indianapolis lost Sanders and cornerback Marlin Jackson for the season, and cornerback Kelvin Hayden is out 3-4 weeks with a knee injury. You can't tell me that won't have an impact on their pass defense. Yeah, I know, Sanders is more of a monster against the run, but you’re subtracting one of the team's top defenders and telling me life doesn't change? I don't think so, even though the Colts made it through the first five games without him.

The problem I have with the Colts is that I don't see how they stop Tom Brady. More specifically, I don't see how they stop Wes Welker. They can check Randy Moss from going deep with their pass rush, but how do you keep Welker from beating you over the middle with the short and intermediate stuff? When you get an answer, e-mail New England's opponents because nobody, and I mean nobody, has figured that out. And you certainly don't get there by subtracting three defensive backs.

So it should come as no surprise that this becomes a duel of the game's two best quarterbacks, Brady and Manning. If there's one guy who can beat Brady it's Manning, but he may be stretched to the limit here. Already he has seven 300-yard passing games, and I suspect there's an eighth waiting here because this looks like a track meet waiting to happen. All I know is I wouldn't rely on the Colts' 29th-ranked rushing game to stay with New England; I'd go with Manning and his coterie of receivers.

Something to consider: Dating back to Nov. 19, 2006, Brady is 6-0 in November, with 15 touchdown passes and five interceptions.

Three games I'd like to see

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Steelers by 6½

The story: The line seems unusually high, especially with the Steelers coming off a short week of practice. But let's face it, folks: How often do they lose twice to an opponent in one season? More to the point, how often do they lose twice to Cincinnati in one season? It hasn't happened since 1998, and I don't see it happening now.

Here's why: In the first game between these two this year, the Steelers were rolling, ahead 13-3 before Cincinnati's Johnathan Joseph returned an interception for a touchdown and Jeff Reed missed a field goal. That opened the door for the Bengals, and they rushed in -- scoring the go-ahead touchdown with 14 seconds left. But I can't see the Steelers getting generous again -- especially in Pittsburgh's backyard, where the Steelers have won their past eight starts.

This is a battle for first in the division, and Pittsburgh knows it can't afford another loss -- primarily because it hasn't played Baltimore yet. Cincinnati has, and the Bengals are 2-0. Now look what they have after this -- Oakland, Cleveland and Detroit in succession. You can see why the urgency to win is more with Pittsburgh than it is with the Bengals.

Carson Palmer hasn't been lighting it up for Cincinnati this season because he hasn't had to -- and that's a good thing. Having Cedric Benson means the Bengals are balanced and Palmer doesn't need to throw for 300 yards and four touchdowns every Sunday. Expect Pittsburgh to shut down Benson here, forcing the Bengals into a one-dimensional game. That's when we find out about Palmer standing up to one of the game's fiercest and most complex pass rushes.

There won't be time to look deep for Chad Ochocinco, so concentrate instead on someone like Andre Caldwell, a guy who has come out of nowhere to become the club's second-leading receiver and the culprit who scored the game winner the first time these two met.

Another thing that will hurt Cincinnati: Unlike the first time these two played, the Steelers have a running game. It's called Rashard Mendenhall, and he gives Pittsburgh a weapon it didn't have in September. And unlike that Week 3 game, Troy Polamalu is on the field. Good thing, too, because Cincinnati is a physical club that can stand up to Pittsburgh. But can it stand up to a club that can run, pass and blitz the pocket? I don't think so. Not here. Not now.

Something to consider: It is absolutely critical for Benson to get on track, and here's why: Under Marvin Lewis, when the Bengals are 26-1 when they have a 100-yard rusher.

Dallas at Green Bay, 4:15 p.m. ET | End Zone: NFC teams in trouble

The line: Cowboys by 2½

The story: The Cowboys are hot, winning their past four games. The Packers are not, dropping their past two -- including a shocker to woebegone Tampa Bay. So this looks like your classic mismatch, only it's not. It's more like your classic trap, and I would be careful, Dallas. I know Green Bay is struggling and its offensive line can't pass protect and its head coach is under fire and its GM is under more fire and its defense can't seem to grasp the 3-4. But I also know the Packers are in trouble, which makes them a desperate team. And what do we say about desperate teams? When they're home they're dangerous teams.

Green Bay's Al Harris already has painted the picture for his teammates, and it looks something like this: We need to run the table to make the playoffs. OK, got it. So that starts here. But tell me how it starts here when Aaron Rodgers' bodyguards can't protect him from Tampa Bay's pass rush. I mean, how does it keep DeMarcus Ware off the poor guy and figure out how to neutralize defensive tackle Jay Ratliff? Beats me. You don't build the Great Wall overnight, especially against these guys.

Dallas showed me something by going to Philadelphia last weekend and winning. But then this is Tony Romo's month. He's on a 13-game November winning streak, which means Green Bay might be in the right place but at the wrong time. If Romo figured out the Philadelphia defense he can figure out Green Bay, especially with Aaron Kampman experiencing the lingering effects of a concussion. But the Packers played much of this season as if they're all suffering from post-concussion syndromes, and that better stop now. They can't afford to give Romo, Miles Austin, Jason Witten and -- yes! -- Roy Williams openings because they will exploit them. The problem is: You have to stop Marion Barber and Felix Jones, too.

If this is a high-scoring game, and I expect it to be, I'm with Dallas. I have much more confidence the Cowboys can protect their quarterback than Green Bay can protect Rodgers. But I think this one is closer than maybe you do. Green Bay is wounded and knows what it is up against -- and I'm not talking about Dallas. I'm talking about a season on the brink.

Something to consider: Romo, who grew up in Wisconsin, is 2-0 against Green Bay, including quarterbacking the Cowboys' first ever win at Lambeau Field last year.

Philadelphia at San Diego, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Chargers by 2½

The story: A week ago it was San Diego that needed to win. Now it's Philadelphia. The Eagles aren't in trouble -- not yet, anyway -- but they look like a team getting ready to hit another midseason speed bump, and that's not good when you're chasing Dallas. Not with Dallas playing as it is now. I'm waiting for Dallas to return to earth next month too, but by then it could be too late for the Eagles. I know I'm getting way ahead of myself here, but if I'm Andy Reid I sell my guys on making a stand now. They can't wait to start a run.

Which if great and all that, except I'm not sure this is where that run begins. The Eagles just lost two defensive backs -- Ellis Hobbs for the season and Joselio Hanson for the next four games -- and now tackle one of the league's top passing offenses and most accurate quarterbacks. I'd call that a problem, and it's just the beginning.

Defensive coordinator Sean McDermott must shuffle his linebackers, too, with Chris Gocong -- who missed last week's game with an injury -- making his first-ever start at middle linebacker, Will Witherspoon moving from the inside to the weak side and rookie Moise Fokou, who made his first start last week, manning the strong side. Problem? Nope, it's more like an experiment born out of necessity.

That loss to Oakland makes me wonder what we see here. The Eagles couldn't slow the Raiders' pass rush on Oct. 18, so I'm not sure why they defend the Chargers' pass rush now. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are on fire, with nine sacks the past three games, and might be too much for the Eagles to handle. That's for Reid to figure out and, based on the Eagles' recent history, I don't like his chances. Over the past five seasons they are 7-10-1 in November.

Something to consider: The Chargers have four straight wins at home vs. Philadelphia, and Philip Rivers is 22-6 at the Q, with 38 TDs and 17 interceptions.

Monday night lights

Baltimore at Cleveland, 8:30 p.m. ET

The line: Ravens by 10½

The story: Brady Quinn is back at quarterback, and the question now is what happens first: Quinn's next birthday or a Browns offensive touchdown? Cleveland is so dreadful it has two fewer TDs on offense than the New Orleans defense. Maybe Darren Sharper should be quarterbacking these guys. Anyway, the Browns try to find a new direction here, and good luck: Baltimore is reeling from another loss to Cincinnati, and Ray Lewis has a chance to show off for Monday night TV. Not a good combination for the other side.

If there's hope for Cleveland, it's only in the history books: The Browns have won three of their past five home games vs. Baltimore, with the Ravens' two victories by a total of 11 points. But that was then, and this is now ... and now Cleveland is having more trouble finding the end zone than JaMarcus Russell getting a clue.

It's grim in Cleveland, and the vultures are circling. This is a chance for Quinn to prove he belongs, and maybe he delivers. I'm not talking about winning a game; I'm talking about making the Browns competitive.

Something to consider: In his only game against the Browns, Baltimore's Ray Rice produced a career-high 154 yards. He is averaging 146.4 in his past five games overall.

Crummy game of the week

Kansas City at Oakland, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Raiders by 1½

The story: I don't doubt this will be close. It usually is when two bad clubs play each other, and it was the first time they met, with Oakland winning at the wire. These two have split their series the past two seasons, and I see no reason they can't this year.

So it's in Oakland. Big deal. Kansas City has won the past six times it has played there, so make it a home game for the Chiefs. They don't have much on offense, but I tell you what they do have -- guts. I give them credit for moving on without Larry Johnson and getting tough with an idiot who imagined he was bigger than the head coach and the franchise. Now he knows better. Yes, the Chiefs are woefully short of playmakers, but losing L.J. was addition by subtraction. I look at what they did last weekend against Jacksonville, and it gives me hope for the future. And the future is now.

Something to consider: Dating back to 1990 the Chiefs are 17-1 vs. the Raiders in regular-season and postseason play when holding Oakland to 17 or fewer points.

Upset of the week

Patriots (+2½) over Colts | Inside the NFL: Week 10 picks

The story: In Brady vs. Manning, I lean ever so slightly toward Peyton because A) he's home; B) he's on fire; and C) he has a recent history of success against the Patriots. But the equation has been disrupted by injuries to the Colts secondary, and, frankly, I don't see how Indianapolis covers Welker or Ben Watson on the short-to-medium routes. It's not Moss I worry about so much here; it's the underneath guys.

Indianapolis has been this close to losing its past two home games, including San Francisco, and that tells me the Colts express is losing some steam. Combine that with the exits of Jackson, Sanders and Hayden, and you have New England at the wire.

Games within the games

Tennessee RB Chris Johnson vs. Buffalo's run defense: Johnson is leading the league in rushing, averages 6.7 yards a carry and has 12 rushes of 20 or more yards. The Bills are dead last against the run, with opponents averaging 5.1 yards per try. Do the math. This is not rocket science, people. If I'm Vince Young, I have to be convinced to throw the ball.

New England LT Sebastian Vollmer vs. Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney: Vollmer protects Tom Brady's back, and he did it magnificently a week ago, shutting out Miami's Joey Porter. Now it's Freeney he has to block, and look out: He can tie a league record by producing a sack in his 10th consecutive game. In nine games against the Patriots, including the playoffs, Freeney has three sacks.

Cincinnati WR Chad Ochocinco vs. common sense: Chad said he was going to send the Steelers mustard this week but changed his mind after coach Marvin Lewis intervened, imploring him not to rile up the Steelers. "I guess I have to talk trash to motivate myself," Chad said. What? The Steelers aren't enough motivation? If I'm Mike Tomlin, I make sure I get that quote in front of my players.

Denver LB Elvis Dumervil vs. Washington LT Stephon Heyer: Want to know why the Redskins once again won't exceed 17 points? You can start here, where Heyer is overmatched by a guy tied for the league lead in sacks. Poor Jason Campbell. He has been sacked 17 times the past four games, and if the Redskins don't shake up their pass protection, he could be sacked another 17 times Sunday.

Arizona WR Anquan Boldin vs. coach Ken Whisenhunt: Boldin has moved on after calling out his head coach last weekend, saying that "no one was man enough" to tell him he was inactive for the game against Chicago. Sorry, but that doesn't sound like an apology to me. The Cards won without him once; they can win without him again. Memo to Boldin: Look what happened to Larry Johnson. I would be careful.

Five guys I'd like to be

Poll Who will be the AFC's No. 1 seed for the playoffs? 6% Bengals   2% Broncos   61% Colts   14% Patriots   16% Steelers   Total Votes: 41557

Carolina RB DeAngelo Williams: He is brutal on the division, so look out, Atlanta. In his past six games within the NFC South he is averaging 140.8 yards rushing per start and has eight touchdowns.

Miami LB Joey Porter: He has seven sacks in three career games vs. Tampa Bay.

Minnesota QB Brett Favre: Here comes his eighth straight win vs. Detroit. Opposing quarterbacks have a 107.1 passer rating against the Lions this season, making Detroit last in that department.

New Orleans RB Pierre Thomas: He has nine touchdowns in his past seven indoor games.

Baltimore S Ed Reed: He has eight career interceptions against Cleveland, the most vs. any opponent, and two in his past three on Monday nights.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

• 4: Asante Samuel interceptions in the Eagles' past five games
• 5: Shaun Phillips sacks in San Diego's past three games
• 7: Consecutive games in which Michael Turner has scored
• 8: Straight division games in which Jared Allen has a sack
• 8: Games in November where Tony Romo has three or more TD passes
• 17: Indianapolis' regular-season winning streak, dating back to last year
• 7-0: Mike Tomlin's home record vs. the AFC North
• 7-4: Matt Cassel's record on the road
• 17-1: Carolina record when Jake Delhomme's passer rating is 100 or more.

Sunday weather watch

• Charlotte, N.C.: Sunny, high of 72
• Miami: Partly cloudy, high of 82
• Minneapolis: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Sunny, high of 63
• Pittsburgh: Partly cloudy, high of 65
• St. Louis: Dome
• Nashville, Tenn.: Sunny, high of 70
• Washington: Partly cloudy, high of 67
• Oakland, Calif.: Sunny, high of 64
• Phoenix: Sunny, high of 67
• Green Bay, Wis.: Partly cloudy, high of 46
• San Diego: Sunny, high of 67
• Indianapolis: Showers, high of 64 (retractable roof)

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in Indianapolis, taking your breakfast orders at Shapiro's.
• I'll be in Carolina to, um, intercept Jake Delhomme for an interview.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Pittsburgh to put mustard on Cincinnati's biggest hot dog, and take a guess whom I'm talking about.
•  Tom Krasovic will be in San Diego to put out an APB on Michael Vick.