Cutler, Orton living up -- and down -- to expectations
The right time to evaluate the Jay Cutler-Kyle Orton trade is not now, but a couple of years from now.
You have to see how the draft picks work out. Also, both quarterbacks' success is somewhat dependent on the weapons they have to work with. Cutler is behind Orton in that area right now. Orton's offensive line with the Broncos is better than the one that protects Cutler, and that affects his play too. I think you have to see how much the Bears' supporting cast improves in the coming years.
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| Kyle Orton is not a long-term answer at quarterback for Josh McDaniels and the Broncos. (Getty Images) |
The book on Orton said he was smart, a leader and an accurate short passer. The questions concerned his ability to throw deep, move in the pocket and his durability. All them have surfaced in the first half of the season.
The Denver passing game is built on short throws. Baltimore was the first team to exploit the weakness in the Denver offense, the lack of a deep threat. They sat on the short routes and blitzed Orton, and that helped shut down the Broncos offense. Defenses have figured out the Denver offense and Orton's weakness in the deep passing game. Sunday against Washington, Denver hit some big plays but they came from Redskins breakdowns in the secondary not Orton's ability to stretch the field.
With Denver's offensive weapons -- wide receivers Brandon Marshall, Eddie Royal and Jabbar Gaffney, tight end Tony Scheffler and running back Knowshon Moreno -- they should have one of the top offenses in the NFL. Not only that, the Broncos have a top left tackle in Ryan Clady who can protect Orton's blind side. I am not sure Denver will reach its full potential on offense with Orton. In the next couple of years the Broncos will be looking for a QB.
In regards to Cutler, he has a strong arm, is a very good deep passer and has very good mobility to make things happen outside the pocket. His drawbacks included his penchant for turning the ball over, especially in the red zone. There were also questions about how he handles adversity.
We have seen him display all of these traits in Chicago. He has been very impressive in making great throws and performed brilliantly in their victory over Pittsburgh. Even in their loss to the 49ers last week, he drove the Bears the length of the field with a chance to win it before his fifth interception ended the game. When Cutler has the ball, you feel you have a chance to move it every time he drops back to throw.
The negatives have shown up too. He forces balls he should not. The Bears' passing game is throwing the ball more downfield to an inexperienced group of receivers, and you have seen mistakes made by both Cutler and his receivers. These factors result in Cutler turning the ball over too much. We have also seen him get frustrated, as evidenced by his frequent complaints to the officials, one that cost him $20,000.
When I left Bears camp this summer one of the things that struck me about Cutler was that he was not as comfortable as he was when I spoke to him in Denver. That is understandable considering all the pressure he is under and it is something that will take some time for him to work through. He has to realize is that he doesn't have to win the game by himself. He has not learned that yet. Where this shows up is in his turnovers. Can a quarterback improve in this area? I think he can, but the Broncos are likely part of a ground that believes he can't.
The deal isn't just about Orton and Cutler. There are also a number of draft choices involved. Denver has a No. 1 pick in the 2010 draft as a result of the trade. With the first-round pick the Broncos got in the 2009 draft, they chose linebacker Robert Ayers, who played defensive end his senior season at Tennessee. Though he has some linebacker experience, there is still a learning curve in the 3-4 defense. He has played in all nine games this year with limited production, but he has shown some flashes of ability.
Later in the draft, the Broncos chose tight end Richard Quinn and guard Seth Olsen. They have not done much yet, but like Ayers you have to give these players time to develop.
One part of the trade that gets overlooked is the fifth-round pick the Bears received, which they used on receiver and kick returner Johnny Knox. He has shown a lot of potential, with 30 receptions for three touchdowns and a kickoff-return average of 27.4 yards with a score.
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| Mistake-prone Jay Cutler must stop letting his emotions take over. (Getty Images) |
Ultimately this trade will come down to the play of the two quarterbacks. At this point I think both teams are happy and I believe both teams would do the trade over again. The Bears reinforced this, giving Cutler a contract extension.
Denver has not solved its long-term quarterback situation and will have to fix the position, possibly with the '10 first-round pick acquired from the Bears. But it will be interesting to see if Josh McDaniels will use a first-round pick on a quarterback. That is not his philosophy. My advice -- if there is a good one there, take him.
It is a little more complicated for the Bears. Chicago should not have buyer's remorse. The Bears will need to do some work on the offensive line to protect Cutler and improve the run game, but that is workable if Chris Williams can play left tackle, which I think he can.
I agree with Bill Cowher's assessment on The NFL Today this past Sunday. The Bears must decide who they are on offense. Are they a running team or a passing team? Chicago runs a risk with Cutler if he can't stop his penchant for turnovers. I would still take my chances with the prospect of that, but Cutler has to relax, stop being so emotional about negative plays and learn to play within himself on a consistent basis as he did against Pittsburgh.
Right now, I would take the Bears in this trade.
