Game of the week
San Diego at Denver, 4:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
The line: Chargers by 2½
The story: A month ago, the Chargers looked dead in the division. Then Denver pulled its now-annual el foldo, and the Broncos and Bolts are tied for the AFC West lead. Denver still has the advantage because it beat San Diego last month and it is home, where it has won seven of the past nine games in this series. But the advantage stops there, and the momentum takes over -- and the momentum is with San Diego.
The Chargers aren't just playing better. Their defense is coming around. Shawne Merriman and Shaun Phillips are reaching the quarterback. LaDainian Tomlinson looks like a running back again. The offensive line has improved. And Philip Rivers is ... well, he's one of the most effective and most dangerous quarterbacks around. So the Chargers are what they were supposed to be, and, unfortunately for Denver, so are the Broncos -- at least for the past three games.
Critics want to put the blame on Kyle Orton, but get real: This isn't his fault. The Broncos just aren't very good. For six games, they were. In fact, for six games they were very, very good, playing the sort of football they had to play for Orton and a buttoned-down offense to win. But now they're giving up the points they didn't early in the season, committing the mistakes they didn't early in the season and suffering the injuries they didn't early in the season. Result: They're not winning as they did early in the season.
They're on a three-game bender. San Diego is on a four-game binge. And that's where ol' Mo comes in. If, as one GM told me this week, football is a game of confidence and momentum, the Chargers hold all the cards here.
Still, they must beat an opponent they could not at home, which means they better figure out how to hold off Elvis Dumervil and the Broncos pass rush. The Broncos sacked Rivers four times in the second half when they met in October, and a repeat performance not only is urged for the home team; it is required. The Orton-led Broncos offense is not designed to play from behind -- if, in fact, Orton plays at all. Backup Chris Simms took snaps Thursday while Orton was sidelined with a bad ankle, increasing the chances that Simms makes his first start since 2006.
Denver has big-play receivers in Brandon Marshall and Eddie Royal, but Marshall is hurt, too, and Royal's contribution the last time against San Diego was on special teams, not offense. Besides, how effective will either be if Simms is throwing to them?
Playing in Denver is a huge advantage for the Broncos, especially in the second halves of games when opponents get gassed. But San Diego figured out how to win here in 2006 when the Broncos were 7-2, and they won the next year, too. Hey, they would've made it three straight were it not for Ed Hochuli last season, so playing here does not intimidate them. Playing the Chargers, however, should shake Denver. If the Broncos don't win here, the bottom could fall out -- with the Giants up next on Thanksgiving Day.
Something to consider: Rivers is 9-2 vs. the AFC West on the road, with 20 touchdown passes and nine interceptions.
Three games I'd like to see
Indianapolis at Baltimore, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | 
Preview
The line: Even
The story: For the life of me, I can't figure out this betting line. I know Baltimore is desperate, and desperate teams playing at home are dangerous. But let's see what we have here: The Ravens are coming off a short week; their cornerbacks have trouble defending the pass; and one of their top defensive performers and one of the best defenders anywhere, linebacker Terrell Suggs, is out. So how are they anything but an underdog against Peyton Manning?
I can think of only two explanations: 1) The desperate-team-at-home theory; and 2) The Colts might suffer an emotional letdown after last weekend's defeat of New England. But maybe the Colts gain an emotional lift from that victory. All I know is that when I watched Baltimore try to defend Carson Palmer and Brett Favre, its cornerbacks were overmatched. So how are the Ravens going to defend Manning and his coterie of receivers?
Then there's the emotional aspect of the Colts returning to Baltimore. I used to think that was a big deal, but it's not. It is for the fans who remember the Colts packing up and leaving, but that was 1984. There are some guys in this game who weren't alive then, and some who think the Mayflower brought the Pilgrims to Plymouth instead of the Colts to Indy. Imagine.
Anyway, the emotional value is overrated; it's the competitive issue that's at stake here, with the Ravens in danger of fading from the playoff picture with each loss. Remember, they follow this game with Pittsburgh and Green Bay, so their margin for error is slim.
I don't doubt Joe Flacco can puncture the Indianapolis pass defense. Losing three defensive backs in one week makes the Colts vulnerable, and we saw how vulnerable against Tom Brady. But that's not the problem here; Manning is. Not only is Baltimore's pass defense suspect -- especially without its best pass rusher, Suggs -- but the Ravens never could beat Manning when they were rolling. You can look it up: He has six consecutive victories against them, including three in Baltimore.
Yeah, maybe the Ravens wake up, and maybe they pull the upset. But I don't see how. I agree that Indianapolis is ready to lose to someone, but I just don't think Baltimore is that someone. Essentially, it comes down to whom you trust more -- Manning or Flacco -- and I know where all of us stand.
Something to consider: In his past six appearances against Baltimore, Manning has completed 64.1 percent of his passes for 11 TDs, three interceptions and a passer rating of 102.1.
Atlanta at N.Y. Giants, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Giants by 6½
The story: Four weeks ago, these two looked like a couple of premier teams. Now they're men overboard, searching for a life preserver ... something, anything, to hold on to for survival. The Giants have lost four straight. The Falcons have dropped three of their past four and are 1-4 on the road. In short, neither of these clubs is playing well and for similar reasons: They're not getting enough from their defenses or their quarterbacks.
Matt Ryan looks ordinary. Eli Manning seems handicapped by a foot injury. Both pushed their teams to the playoffs a year ago, and neither seems capable of getting them there now. But that's not all. The secondary for both clubs is an issue, with Atlanta beaten for 10 touchdowns the past five games and the Giants unable to produce a pass rush to bail out struggling defensive backs.
Jake Delhomme produced his best passing game of the season against Atlanta last week, while Philip Rivers shredded the Giants in the final two minutes of their previous game. That was two weeks ago, and it is one reason the Giants are heavy favorites. They're coming off a bye. The other? Atlanta doesn't have Michael Turner, and no Turner means the offense rests on Ryan's right arm. If he plays here as he played against Carolina, the Falcons are toast. He was high with his throws, inaccurate and more than willing to take chances when he shouldn't have.
If, on the other hand, Manning is on ... if he plays an error-free game as he did against San Diego ... it might not make a difference what Ryan does. Ryan would have to lead one of those marvelous second-half charges, and based on what I saw a week ago, I don't know that he has it in him.
Something to consider: Since 1979, the road team has won every game in this series -- 12 in a row.
N.Y. Jets at New England, 4:15 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview | Brady, Belichick | Jets' Ryan
The line: Patriots by 10½
The story: If I were Rex Ryan, I would be crying, too, at the prospect of having to face New England this weekend. First, the Patriots just blew a huge game to Indianapolis. Second, they blew it because of -- what shall we call it? -- OK, a stupid decision by their head coach. Third, their head coach has taken a lot of grief for looking more like a dunce than a genius. Fourth, they lost to the Jets earlier this year. And fifth, don't for one minute think their head coach has forgotten that it was Ryan who said he's not here to "to kiss Bill Belichick's rings." Put them together, and I'll tell you what you have.
More tears from the Jets.
I'll be honest: I don't know that Belichick wants to beat these guys as much as he wants to destroy them. Ryan not only had fun with the Patriots earlier this year, making bold comments he enjoyed more than Belichick, but he proceeded to show up Big Bill and the Pats up when they met. That doesn't happen without repercussions, and the bomb is about to drop.
So the Jets won two months ago; I don't know now how they win now. New England is stronger, deeper and better. Plus, Belichick is not a happy camper. Put them together, and I would keep that box of Kleenex handy, Rex.
I'm a big Darrelle Revis fan and admired how he shut down Randy Moss the first time these two met. He could do it again. But there's one big difference from then: There was no Wes Welker that first game. There is now. Who covers him? And then there is this: Belichick following losses. The man does not lose twice in a row. In fact, since 2002 he has dropped back-to-back games only once. It's enough to make a grown man cry.
Something to consider: Brady has 20 consecutive victories at home and four 300-yard passing games in a row.
Monday night lights
Tennessee at Houston, 8:30 p.m. ET | End Zone: Vince Young's future
The line: Texans by 4½
The story: Welcome home, Vince Young. Earlier this week, I was doing an End Zone segment with Ian Eagle and Jason Horowitz when the subject of Young's future came up. Essentially, the question was this: Can the Titans win with him? The consensus: Absolutely. Not only are they 3-0 this season; they're 21-11 with Young overall, and let's not forget that Tennessee was a playoff team when he quarterbacked the Titans in 2007.
But this is not just Vince Young starting again. This is Vince Young returning to his hometown, and that could be trouble for Houston. The last time Young started here, in 2006 as a rookie, he scored the winning touchdown on a 39-yard scramble up the middle ... in overtime, no less. That Vince Young was raw and inaccurate. This Vince Young is subdued and more confident, and the proof is in his passing: Since taking over as a starter, he has completed 71 percent of his attempts, with one interception.
Of course, Vince will never be confused with Steve Young as a passer, but he doesn't have to be Steve Young. He just can't be Sean Young. Too many mistakes hurt him in the past, like 2007 when he had 17 interceptions. The Titans don't need that. What they do need is leadership, good decisions and few mistakes, and so far, so good for Young.
But Vince Young isn't the Titans. Chris Johnson is. The guy is having an off-the-charts season, making big runs, big catches and, in general, shredding opposing defenses. He is also averaging 7.5 yards a carry vs. Houston. It's not stopping Young that is Houston's chief concern; it's stopping Johnson, and good luck. The first time these two played he produced 284 yards in offense and three TDs.
Something to consider: Young aims for his eighth victory in a row as a starter, and he's at the right place. Tennessee is 5-2 at Houston and has won two of its past three on Monday Night Football.
Crummy game of the week
Cleveland at Detroit, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview
The line: Lions by 3½
The story: This is another line that intrigues me. After watching Cleveland stumble through Monday's game and sleepwalk through most of its past 15, how can you make them anything but a double-digit underdog each week? I mean, if you can't score you can't win, right? And if you can't score you're probably going to get buried ... which is what has happened to Cleveland its past three games. For the record it's Browns 9, Opponents 77. Baltimore was the latest winner, and the Ravens didn't even look very good. In fact, they looked bored. Still, they won by 16.
But that's what happens when you play the Browns. You can bring your D game, and you don't have to worry -- which is good for Detroit. Because let's be honest: The Lions stink, too. But at least they know how to find the end zone, and that's why they win here. Forget all that stuff about Eric Mangini wearing out the Browns in practice or not making the right play calls or cracking down on guys who don't deserve it. The problem is not Eric Mangini, it's his football team.
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The Browns can't win because they treat the end zone like a DMZ, with five offensive TDs in their past 15 games. New Orleans sometimes scores five in one game; the Browns do it in one season. Worse, they have 9 points the past three weeks. I haven't seen a team that had this much trouble scoring since ... well, since the last Montreal Canadiens game. Hey, I don't know if LeBron James can play football, but I do know he can score. So bring it on. Anything at this point is better than what we've had in Cleveland.
Brady Quinn starts again, and he should. Cleveland must find out what it has now, not later. So they sacrifice another game. Big deal. It doesn't matter. The second half of this season is about the first half of 2010, with the Browns finding out who goes and who stays. Oddsmakers think they have a chance for the upset here. I don't. The way I look at it, if they score a touchdown it's an upset.
Something to consider: Detroit quarterback Matthew Stafford has three touchdown passes in his past two games. The Browns have one touchdown, period, in their past three. See what I mean?
Upset of the week
Tennessee (+4½) over Houston | Inside the NFL: Insiders picks
The story: Vince Young is hot. He can't lose. He doesn't make big mistakes. And he's going home. That combination gives me hope that Tennessee, which lost earlier to Houston this season, can pull the upset.
OK, that and Chris Johnson. The Texans already demonstrated they can't stop Johnson, but that doesn't make them unusual. Now they must stop Young, too, and he has won his past eight regular-season starts. Keeping him in check won't be easy given the circumstances -- and the circumstances are these: Young is playing in front of people he cares about, so emotions will be a factor. They were the last time ... the only time ... he started here, with Young producing the winning touchdown in overtime.
Do I think Houston is the better team? Yes. But I also think Tennessee feels pretty good about itself because its quarterback feels pretty good about himself. I like teams with momentum, and I like quarterbacks with something to prove.
Games within the games
QB Alex Smith vs. QB Aaron Rodgers: In the 2005 NFL Draft, Rodgers and Smith were the top two quarterbacks, with one destined to be the first pick. San Francisco held that choice, and Rodgers, who attended Cal, desperately hoped the 49ers would choose him. They did not. Instead, they went for Smith, with Rodgers falling down the board. When the Packers chose him with the 24th pick, Rodgers promised to save his best football for those who passed on him. Well, here is his chance.
Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb vs. "must wins": McNabb this week challenged his teammates to knuckle down, declaring Sunday's game with Chicago "pretty much do-or-die." That's great, except there's a danger in making those statements, and ask New York's Tom Coughlin. He's the guy who termed his team's game with San Diego "a one-game season," only to see that season go down the drain.
New York Giants LB Michael Boley vs. his former team: The Falcons let Boley walk in the offseason and don't seem to miss him. This is his chance to change their minds. Boley, who because of a suspension and an injury did not return to action until two weeks ago, said he feels "like himself" now. Great. So go prove it.
New England WR Randy Moss vs. New York Jets CB Darrelle Revis: The first time they met Moss was held to four catches for 24 yards, but the Patriots refused to acknowledge it was Revis alone who shut him down -- saying he had safety help. Yeah, OK, whatever. All I know is that Revis isn't happy and wants another crack at the guy. He has his chance.
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Oakland QB Bruce Gradkowski vs. Cincinnati: He started once against the Bengals, and beat them -- throwing for two touchdowns in a victory on Oct. 15, 2006, when Gradkowski was with Tampa Bay. Those Bucs weren't very good. These Raiders are worse.
Five guys I'd like to be
St. Louis QB Marc Bulger: He has a touchdown pass in each of his 12 career starts vs. Arizona and has thrown for two or more in six of those games.
Dallas LB DeMarcus Ware: He shoots for his seventh consecutive game vs. Washington with a sack. He has 41 sacks since 2007, most in the NFL.
Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew: Not only does he get to face the league's 32nd-ranked run defense, he aims for his fourth consecutive game vs. the Bills with a touchdown.
Minnesota QB Brett Favre: He's 4-0 at home vs. Seattle, including the playoffs, and has a passer rating of 100 or better in each of those victories.
New England RB Laurence Maroney: He can make it five consecutive weeks with a rushing touchdown. When Maroney runs for a score, the Patriots are 15-2.
Numbers, numbers, numbers
4: Consecutive Chargers road wins over AFC West opponents
5: Consecutive games with a Jairus Byrd interception
8: 300-yard Peyton Manning games this season
18: Consecutive Indianapolis regular-season victories
24: Charles Woodson interceptions in 55 games with Packers
25: Jared Allen sacks in his past 21 starts, including the playoffs
141: Yards rushing Cedric Benson needs to produce his first 1,000-yard season
8-0: Oakland's all-time record at home vs. Cincinnati
18-3: Kyle Orton's record at home
Sunday weather watch
• Baltimore: Cloudy, high of 57
• Arlington, Texas: Mostly sunny, high of 67
• Detroit: Dome
• Green Bay, Wis.: Partly cloudy, high of 51
• Jacksonville, Fla.: Scattered thunderstorms, high of 76
• Kansas City, Mo.: Mostly sunny, high of 56
• Minneapolis: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly cloudy, high of 56
• Tampa, Fla.: Isolated thunderstorms, high of 79
• St. Louis: Dome
• Denver: Partly cloudy, high of 47
• Foxborough, Mass.: Mostly cloudy, high of 53
• Oakland, Calif.: Partly cloudy, high of 61
• Chicago: Partly cloudy, high of 53
Where we will be
• Pete Prisco will be in New England to help tutor Bill Belichick.
• I'll be in Baltimore to welcome the Mayflowers back to town.
• Mike Freeman will be in East Rutherford to help Tom Coughlin resurrect that "one-game season."
• Lee Rasizer will be in Denver to deliver parachutes to the Denver locker room.
