Ten on bubble: Handicapping wild-card contenders
By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow ClarkThe only sure things in the NFL this season are Indianapolis and New Orleans in the playoffs, Maurice Jones-Drew in the end zone and Jay Cutler in a funk. Trying to handicap the postseason field -- especially with six weeks left -- can be as difficult as predicting Bill Belichick's next move, but handicapping the postseason field is what we're about to do.
I'm not talking about gimmies like Indianapolis, New Orleans, Minnesota, Arizona and New England. They're in. So are teams like Cincinnati and San Diego. Nope, it's the mad scramble for wild-card spots that intrigues me, and I'll give Dallas a rest for the moment because the Cowboys are in front in the NFC East. But let's check out the pack waiting behind.
If you're ready, so am I.
New York Giants (6-4)
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| Will Osi Umenyiora get the defense turned around before it's too late? (Getty Images) |
Why they could not: Their defense has holes the size of Lake George. I don't know what's wrong; I just know it's not working.
The problem: Dee-fense! Dee-fense! Dee-fense! I don't know whom the Giants miss more: safety Kenny Phillips or former defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
What they must do: In the words of Paul McCartney, get back to where they once belonged. The Giants historically beat up opponents with a suffocating defense. Not this season. Four opponents have put up 30 or more points, including two of the last three. Their pass defense used to revolve around a furious pass rush, but nobody's getting to the quarterback. Osi Umenyiora leads the team with five sacks, and, yeah, OK, so it's not bad. But it's one less than he had in a game vs. Philadelphia.
The prognosis: Iffy. I like the Giants' history of playoff runs, but I don't like their defense -- and it can hold them back. They should win this week in Denver, but then look what happens. They play Dallas. They play Philadelphia. They play Minnesota. All three are among the league's top 11 offenses.
Philadelphia Eagles (6-4)
Why they could survive: Andy Reid's teams typically reserve their best football for December, and good thing: The Eagles have road games next month in Atlanta, New York and Dallas.
Why they could not: Their defense is not what it was, with injuries crippling them at linebacker, and their offensive line is nothing more than ordinary. Plus, there's the schedule -- with their last three road games in Atlanta, New York and Dallas. The good news: The Eagles are 3-2 on the road, with their only losses in the Pacific Time Zone. The bad: One of those defeats was to Oakland.
The problem: The club relies so heavily on Donovan McNabb that if he's off -- and rewind the videotape to that loss in Oakland -- the Eagles are cooked. There's no Adrian Peterson to bail him out.
What they must do: I don't worry about their defense. The Eagles can still get to the quarterback, and they're terrific at forcing mistakes -- with their 23 takeaways second only to New Orleans. Nope, my concerns are in the red zone, where they can struggle -- and their 50 percent success rate with touchdowns is the evidence.
The prognosis: Decent. I don't worry about these guys down the stretch because I trust Reid. People in Philadelphia complain about his game and clock management, and, OK, those aspects could be better. But look at the big picture: He knows how to get to the playoffs, reaching the conference championship game five of the past eight years.
Atlanta Falcons (5-5)
Why they could survive: Their next three games are home, where they're 4-0.
Why they could not: They still have two road games, quarterback Matt Ryan is inconsistent and Michael Turner is out.
The problem: Turner has a sprained ankle that will keep him sidelined indefinitely, which means Ryan carries the offense. That might be an issue, considering he has more interceptions now than he did last season. Plus, the defense is suspect, with opposing quarterbacks shredding a sub-par secondary.
What they must do: Get Turner back and Ryan straightened out.
The prognosis: Better than you think, but they must win no fewer than two of their next three at home. Then they finish with the Jets, Buffalo and Tampa Bay -- clubs with a combined record of 8-22. Yes, Atlanta, there is a Santa Claus.
Green Bay Packers (6-4)
Why they could survive: They don't play an opponent with a winning record until Dec. 20.
Why they could not: Too many injuries, with Al Harris and Aaron Kampman bowing out this week. The Packers' defense already had cracks. To lose two starters -- and those two starters -- may be too much for them to survive.
The problem: Protecting quarterback Aaron Rodgers. The poor guy absorbs more hits than YouTube. He's a human piñata, and he cannot survive 16 rounds of body blows.
What they must do: Get something out of their running game, which they're doing. The last two starts they averaged 144 yards per game, and that keeps defenses off Rodgers. They're also the best in the league at protecting the ball, and keep it up, guys. A plus-14 in the takeaway/turnover ratio is one way to make it to the playoffs.
The prognosis: Not good but capable of making it. Three of Green Bay's next four games are on the road, which is where two of its past three losses have been -- including one at Tampa Bay. The Packers' last two roadies are in Pittsburgh and Arizona, and they absolutely, positively must split those.
Jacksonville Jaguars (6-4)
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| Maurice Jones-Drew has carried the Jaguars to a 6-4 record. (Getty Images) |
Why they could not: Look at the schedule. They've beaten only one opponent with a winning record. Worse, their first four games in December are against Houston, Miami, Indianapolis and New England. Fortunately for them, three are home where they're 4-1.
The problem: The Jags aren't really outstanding at anything other than giving the ball to Maurice Jones-Drew. I don't trust David Garrard, and I don't trust a defense that surrenders 41 points to Seattle.
What they must do: Win this weekend in San Francisco. I'm serious. If they can do that, they just have to split their next four. Then it's on to Cleveland for the season finale and, in all likelihood, on to the playoffs.
The prognosis: Iffy. Basically, I don't have a lot of faith in these guys because, aside from that 31-24 defeat of Houston, they've kicked around tomato cans -- including a 23-20 overtime defeat of St. Louis. Yeah, I know, a win is a win is a win. But let's see them weather that four-game stretch in December.
Denver Broncos (6-4)
Why they could survive: They play in the AFC West where anything is possible. So San Diego is on fire. The Bolts are unpredictable and capable of brain locks at any moment.
Why they could not: They can't find the end zone with a GPS. The Broncos have become Cleveland West, scoring 37 points spanning their past four games -- all losses.
The problem: The roster. There's just not enough talent on this club to make a late-season push. The Broncos had a nice run, but the run might be over. Now they seem to be headed south for the winter because the defense that held them together the first half of the season is coming apart.
What they must do: Get back to holding opponents in check and playing mistake-free football on offense -- in other words, get back to perfect football. Look, I didn't figure these guys for six wins all year, and they're to be commended for what they've done. But they're in free fall, with nobody packing a parachute.
The prognosis: Not good. If they can beat the Giants this Thursday they might be able to survive. They have road games left in Indianapolis and Philadelphia, and I don't see how they win either. So that puts them at six losses, with the Giants a possible seventh. Then it's two games with K.C. and one with Oakland, and I'll be honest: The way they're playing now I don't see the Broncos doing any better than splitting with the Chiefs.
Pittsburgh Steelers (6-4)
Why they could survive: There's only one remaining opponent with a winning record.
Why they could not: Their offense makes too many mistakes, and while it produces plenty of yards it hasn't produced plenty of points.
The problem: Injuries galore, with backup quarterback Charlie Batch the latest casualty. Batch played only because Ben Roethlisberger was hurt, and the way Big Ben has been hammered by defenses you have to wonder how long before he bows out again. Hey, I haven't even mentioned All-Pro safety Troy Polamalu, and he has missed all or most of six games -- four of which the Steelers lost. No Polamalu, no Roethlisberger means no chance.
What they must do: Hang on until Polamalu gets back and figure out how to make a stop on kick returns. Opponents have returned four kickoffs for touchdowns the past five games (and they've scored on returns of any kinds in each of Pittsburgh's past eight games). That will keep you at the back of the class.
The prognosis: Good, depending on what happens to Roethlisberger and what happens against Baltimore. They will play the Ravens twice, but that can be a good thing. They beat them three times last season. If they can split, they're in decent shape. Three of their next five are home, then they finish at Miami.
Houston Texans (5-5)
Why they could survive: Matt Schaub. He's having the best season of his career and one of the best seasons of anyone out there this year.
Why they could not: They're too one-dimensional, spending the season looking for a running game that's not there.
The problem: No running game. Steve Slaton was supposed to be the answer, but he averages 3 yards and got benched. Yeah, Andre Johnson is a load at wide receiver and Arizona proved last year that you can make it on passing alone. But not having tight end Owen Daniels is a problem. Defenses will roll coverages toward Johnson and dare Slaton to beat them on the ground. Good luck.
What they must do: Tee it up against the big boys. They nearly beat Indianapolis earlier this month, so beat them next week. Then it's Jacksonville. They lost to them at home. And they finish with Miami and New England. If you're going to the playoffs, you better beat playoff-caliber opponents.
The prognosis: Touch and go. These guys went to Cincinnati and won, which was impressive. They nearly beat Indianapolis, too. But the loss to Tennessee is a big-time blow. Four of their last six opponents are .500 or better, including two division leaders, and that may be too much for them to overcome.
Miami Dolphins (5-5)
Why they could survive: They're improving with each week and winning the old fashioned way -- by running the ball and stopping opposing backs.
Why they could not: Losing Ronnie Brown was a crippling blow to the league's fourth-ranked rushing offense. They have a shortage of playmakers on offense, and their quarterback is a virtual rookie.
The problem: The schedule. Three of their next four games are on the road. And while the last two are home, they're against Houston and Pittsburgh.
What they must do: Continue to control opponents by controlling the clock. It won't be easy without Brown, but Ricky Williams was up to the task vs. Carolina, and that's a bonus for Chad Henne. He doesn't have to win games; he just has to avoid losing them.
The prognosis: Not good. The schedule is a bear. Their three remaining home games are against opponents with a record of 18-11, including division leader New England and defending Super Bowl champion Pittsburgh. Plus, look whom they have beaten: Nobody with a winning record.
Baltimore Ravens (5-5)
Why they could survive: They have two games left with Pittsburgh, a club they must beat twice to get to the top.
Why they could not: They have two games left with Pittsburgh, a club that beat them three times last season. Plus, they have Green Bay. This isn't a schedule. It's a slow and painful execution.
The problem: They're not getting better, losing five of their past seven. Three of those defeats have been by a total of seven points, but that happens when you have trouble kicking field goals. The curse of Matt Stover is killing these guys.
What they must do: Get back to scoring touchdowns. The first seven games they averaged 28 points. The past three, they're down to 12.7 and two TDs.
The prognosis: Grim. The Ravens have been moved to the critical list. One more loss, and they move to the ICU. They have Pittsburgh this week, then move to Green Bay. If they can win those two they might be able to make a run, but I don't see it. The defense is flawed, and the offense is down to Ray Rice and little else.
