Peek at the Week: Brady-Brees battle a Monday night special

Game of the Week

New England at New Orleans, 8:30 p.m. ET Monday

The line: Saints by 2½

The story: For the second time in three weeks the Patriots can drop an unbeaten team, and for the second time in three weeks they can do it with millions sitting in as witnesses. Let's face it, they should've beaten Indianapolis two weeks ago. But they didn't. They didn't know how to close that game, took an unnecessary gamble and suffered the consequences. Hey, it happens. But I don't see it happening again.

I know New Orleans is rolling, but the Saints will get beaten sooner or later ... and it could be sooner if Tom Brady plays as he did against Indianapolis. Injuries have weakened the Saints at cornerback, where they were forced to sign Chris McAlister and Mike McKenzie, and a crippled secondary is no way to beat New England. It's not just Randy Moss that is the problem. It's more like Wes Welker, who is Brady's security blanket and who is coming off a career performance against the Jets.

Yes, I expect Drew Brees to find holes in the New England secondary, but not as many as Brady should find in the Saints' defensive backfield. The key for the Saints is keeping Brady off the field with prolonged drives that feature a combination of Brees and the league's fifth-ranked rushing game. If they're unsuccessful with the run, they will not win -- basically because I trust Brady more than I do Brees.

Something to consider: The Patriots have six straight Monday night wins and 17 straight victories against the NFC, the longest winning streak vs. an opposing conference since the 1970 merger.

Three games I'd like to see

Indianapolis at Houston, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview | End Zone: AFC wild-card contenders

The line: Colts by 3½

The story: Unbeaten Indianapolis has won its past four by a total of 10 points, the lowest margin for a four-game winning streak in NFL history, so we know the Colts don't panic -- a telltale sign of a good club. And this is a very good club.

Peyton Manning throws for 300 yards almost every week, and the defense that lost Bob Sanders keeps making game-changing plays. Don't ask me how long the Colts can keep this up; I just know they look as if they can continue for another week.

Houston is coming off a tough Monday night loss and beginning to have a look of desperation. You know what I think about desperate teams at home. They're dangerous, and the Texans are dangerous. But they're also one-dimensional, which is OK when you have Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels as receivers. But Houston does not. It has Johnson, period, and the Colts and everyone else will roll coverage in his direction to force someone, anyone else to beat them. It didn't happen Monday, and I'll be surprised if it happens here.

The Texans were also forced to subtract starting safety Eugene Wilson from the lineup, and that's not good when Manning comes to town. Indianapolis has a raft of receivers that can beat you, and you better bring your "A" game if you want to win. I'm not sure that's possible with Houston injured and Steve Slaton/Chris Brown no factors in the running game. It's all on Matt Schaub here, and whom do you trust more -- Schaub or Manning? Me, too.

Something to consider: Schaub has passed for 300 yards in each of his past four games vs. the AFC South. In two starts against Indianapolis he has completed 77.6 percent of his passes.

Arizona at Tennessee, 4:15 p.m. ET

The line: Titans by 2½

The story: I admit it. I climbed on the Titans' bandwagon after watching them shred Houston with Chris Johnson and Vince Young. The offense that once was dull, boring and predictable is anything but, with Young making the plays he could not two years ago.

I love these guys, and I sense a terrific story in the works. Of course, a lot of that is predicated on beating an Arizona club that is unbeaten on the road and headed to its second straight division championship. Once, this game looked like a gimme for the Cards. Not anymore.

First of all, there's Kurt Warner's health. He says he will play, but how effective will he be? Second, there are Vince Young's legs. I don't see how anyone stops this guy. Third, there are Chris Johnson's legs. Nobody does stop this guy.

The Titans can control the ball with those two and play just enough defense to give Johnson and/or Young a chance to win the game. They are a tough, tough out now, and the Cards are in trouble if Warner isn't himself or doesn't suit up.

But say this about Arizona: The Cardinals are not the same team they were a year ago, and that's not bad. They have a promising running back and a perfect record on the road. Beanie Wells gives them a dimension they haven't had in years, and they haven't lost any of five road games.

I like that, and I like teams that peak for the playoffs -- which the Cards seem to be doing. But beware Tennessee. This is not the same club that dropped its first six. The Titans are on a four-game roll and getting so confident that some people have started talking about their playoff chances.

Playoffs? Let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Something to consider: Vince Young is 22-11 as a starter and aims for his ninth straight victory. He is 12-6 at home.

Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 8:20 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Ravens by 2½

The story: The Ravens have lost five of their past seven; the Steelers their past two. This isn't a game as much as it's the latest installment of Survivor: Baltimore.

The Ravens are in trouble, and they took another hit with the loss of starting cornerback Fabian Washington. Normally, I would say they're in deep, deep kimchi against these guys, except I don't know which Ben Roethlisberger shows up ... that is, if, in fact, he does show up. The Steelers say he will, but I don't know -- when you have concussion-like symptoms, isn't rest the best remedy?

The problem, of course, is that the Steelers have no one behind Big Ben, unless you consider Dennis Dixon someone. With Dixon and the recently signed Tyler Palko, the Steelers have safety nets without one game of starting experience -- and, yes, that's a problem.

But it's not the only one. Even if Roethlisberger plays, it is a guarantee he gets hit again and again by the Baltimore pass rush, even without Terrell Suggs. Playing the part of a pinball is not exactly how you take care of post-concussive symptoms.

Anyway, the edge is with the Ravens, even though they're on the down escalator. First of all, there's the Roethlisberger issue. Second, there's no Troy Polamalu at safety. Put them together, and you have the Steelers' leader on offense compromised, and their leader on defense missing. The Steelers don't often lose three straight, and they beat the Ravens three times last season. But they're wounded, and they're up against a desperate team. That's trouble.

Something to consider: Roethlisberger not only has four straight wins over Baltimore, he has eight TDs and one interception in those games.

Crummy game of the week

Seattle at St. Louis, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Seahawks by 2½

The story: Both teams stink. Both have quarterback issues. And now that Steven Jackson isn't practicing because of a sore back, both have running back issues.

The Seahawks also have issues on the road, where they have lost 13 of their past 15, including the playoffs. But maybe their luck changes here because the Rams are, in the words of Todd Rundgren, broke down and busted.

But the Seahawks aren't much better. They struggle everywhere now basically because they're undersized, they can't run, their offensive line isn't very good, there's no top-shelf wide receiver and their cornerbacks are overwhelmed.

Good clubs wallop them, but the Rams are not a good club. They did, however, keep it close with New Orleans a couple of weeks ago, which gives the natives hope. But Kyle Boller? That's why all eyes are on Jackson.

Something to consider: Seattle defensive end Patrick Kerney has six sacks in his past five games vs. the Rams.

Upset of the week

New England (+2½) over New Orleans | Pete's Picks: Week 12

The story: This time there will be no fourth-down gamble. The Patriots played well enough to beat Indianapolis two weeks ago but let the Colts off the hook when Bill Belichick suffered brain lock. No such luck this time.

The Patriots win because I don't like an opponent that signs cornerbacks off the street the week of the New England game. I expect both teams to score and score plenty, but I'll take Belichick here because he was embarrassed once on prime-time TV; he won't be shown up again. Losing to Indianapolis all but guarantees the Patriots win here.

Games within the games

Jacksonville RB Maurice Jones-Drew vs. San Francisco RB Frank Gore: Gore is averaging 176.3 yards from scrimmage in his past three starts at home; Jones-Drew needs two TDs to pass Fred Taylor's franchise record of 14.

Minnesota DE Jared Allen vs. Chicago QB Jay Cutler: Allen aims for his third straight game against the Bears with two or more sacks, and now it's Cutler who is his target. Earlier this year, Allen boasted on radio that "twice a year I'm going to peel the back of [Cutler's] head off the turf." Here is his chance.

New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez vs. the learning curve: Jets coach Rex Ryan this week installed a code system to help the rookie cut down on his mistakes, and good luck. His first pop quiz is against the Jaguars.

Tampa Bay coach Raheem Morris vs. Atlanta offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey: Morris fired his offensive coordinator before the season. Now he has fired his defensive coordinator. I guess that makes him the King of the Universe. My only question: What does it say about the guy who hired those coordinators that they couldn't last the season? All inquiries can be directed to Morris.

Cincinnati DE Jonathan Fanene vs. common sense: Earlier this week he told Geoff Hobson of Bengals.com that the Bengals are "going to win this game. We're going to [sweep] the division. I guarantee that. It's going to be a win. I promise." One question: Who is Jonathan Fanene?

Five guys I'd like to be

Poll What is the best game of Week 12? 81% Patriots at Saints   6% Colts at Texans   5% Cardinals at Titans   8% Steelers at Ravens   Total Votes: 12147

Atlanta QB Matt Ryan: He's 11-1 at home and 4-0 vs. the NFC South.

New Orleans QB Drew Brees: He aims for his fifth straight Monday night game with 300 or more yards.

Cincinnati QB Carson Palmer: He has a touchdown pass in all nine of his career starts vs. Cleveland.

Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning: He's 14-1 vs. Houston, with 34 TDs and six interceptions.

Minnesota QB Brett Favre: He hasn't lost at home in five tries, completing 69.1 percent of his passes with 13 TDs and one interception.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

0: Arizona road losses
5: Consecutive games vs. Houston with a Joseph Addai rushing TD
7: Straight wins for Matt Hasselbeck over St. Louis
212: Yards receiving needed for Vincent Jackson to become first Chargers receiver since Tony Martin (1995-96) to reach 1,000 in consecutive seasons.
4-1: Miami Dolphins road record vs. AFC East under Tony Sparano
4-1: Buffalo's record vs. Miami in its past five home games in November
5-0: Cincinnati vs. AFC North
19-4: San Diego's record vs. AFC West dating back to 2006

Sunday weather watch

• Atlanta: Dome
• Buffalo, N.Y.: Mostly cloudy, high of 46
• Cincinnati: Mostly cloudy, high of 54
• Houston: Scattered thunderstorms, high of 76 (retractable roof)
• Minneapolis: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Mostly sunny, high of 53
• Philadelphia: Mostly sunny, high of 55
• St. Louis: Dome
• Nashville, Tenn.: Mostly cloudy, high of 61
• San Diego: Partly cloudy, high of 66
• San Francisco: Sunny, high of 63
• Baltimore: Mostly sunny, high of 58

Where we will be

• I'll be in Baltimore to make sure Big Ben doesn't strike five, as in concussions.
•  Mike Freeman will be in Minneapolis to intercept Jay Cutler at the door.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in New Orleans on Monday to remind Bill Belichick to just say no to fourth-down gambles.