Three-headed MVP race will be photo finish

It's one thing for Drew Brees to take down Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots. But tell me how he tackles the Colts' Peyton Manning by overcoming him at the ballot box for the league MVP?

An informal poll of 10 voters for the award reveals that Manning still holds the edge over Brees, even though it's not by much. Monday's near-flawless performance against the Patriots undoubtedly helped the Brees campaign, but it still hasn't pushed him over the top -- and, frankly, I understand why.

In the best season of his career, Brett Favre has 2,874 yards passing and 24 scores. (US Presswire)

He has more around him than Manning. His backs are better, his receivers are better and his defense produces a lot more turnovers.

That is not a knock on Brees, it's just recognition of the obvious, and if you're talking Most Valuable Player, you better look for someone who makes the biggest contribution to his team's success. And that guy, voters seem to agree, would be Manning -- at least for now. Brees is close behind, but Manning holds the edge because while he's as successful as Brees, he carries the bigger load.

Now let's take a quick timeout here. I keep talking about Manning and Brees, but this year's MVP race is a three-man runoff, with Minnesota's Brett Favre the third entry.

Favre may be the sentimental choice, but his MVP chances are compromised by all the talent in the Vikings' locker room -- starting with Adrian Peterson, generally considered the best back in the game. Favre is having the best season of a career that includes three MVP awards, but, like Brees, he has more to work with than Manning.

Heck, he has more to work with than Brees, too, which could push him to the third spot. All I know is that this year's MVP race will be a closer call than the Minnesota senatorial election, with Manning trying to hold off the NFC's two best quarterbacks.

Brees and Favre still have five weeks to close the gap, but the decision isn't up to them, it's in the hands of a group of experienced voters, and this is what they'll be looking at when they make their choices:

Peyton Manning, QB, Indianapolis

The numbers: 24 TDs, 11 interceptions, 3,415 yards and a passer rating of 102.5, fourth in the NFL.

Why he should win: His team is undefeated, yet it operates with the league's 31st-ranked running game, with Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon as its second and third wideouts, without Anthony Gonzalez and a defense decimated by injuries, including a season-ender to former Defensive Player of the Year Bob Sanders. That doesn't faze Manning. He just keeps winning. And winning. And winning. And isn't that what this award is all about? So he throws more interceptions than Brees and Favre. He throws for more yards, too, hitting 300 yards in eight of his first nine starts. Plus, nobody is more accurate in the fourth quarter, with Manning completing 76.5 percent of his passes in the most critical period of the game. I mention that because the Colts just pulled off their fifth straight come-from-behind win with their fifth straight fourth-quarter rally. Look no farther than Manning for an explanation. "He's certainly carried more of the burden than the others," said one voter, "and those comeback wins don't happen without him." Anyone who wonders why we're talking about him again for MVP again is urged to rewind the videotape to the Colts' improbable defeat of New England. It was all Manning all the time, with the All-Pro leading the Colts to three fourth-quarter TDs, including the game-winning pass with 13 seconds left.

Why he should not: The fatigue factor. There are some people out there as tired of Manning winning MVP awards as they are of seeing the Patriots in the Super Bowl, so they want a change -- and Brees and Favre offer it. "Been there, done that," as one voter said of Manning. He made him his third choice.

Bottom line: As long as the Colts keep winning, he remains the favorite. "He does more with less," said one voter, and it's hard to argue. The Colts lost Sanders and defensive back Marlin Jackson in the same week, then rolled out two rookies at cornerback. Yet they soldier on, extending their winning streak to 20 after overcoming a 17-0 deficit in Houston. It's not because of Dwight Freeney or Reggie Wayne or Dallas Clark. It's because of Number 18, who may be having the best season in a Hall of Fame career.

Drew Brees, QB, New Orleans

The numbers: 27 TDs, nine interceptions, 3,117 yards and a passer rating of 112.6, best in the league.

Why he should win: Because he's having another sensational season, only this time for a team that hasn't lost -- and may not lose the rest of the way. Brees' supporters offer Monday's blowout of New England as their strongest piece of evidence, and it's convincing stuff. The guy wasn't just on, he was practically bulletproof, shredding a Belichick-coached club for five touchdown passes and achieving a perfect 158.3 passer rating. So he has a zillion weapons around him. You still have to take advantage of them. Brees has, with more touchdown passes than anyone in the league. Plus, look what he does when the games matter most: He leads the league in fourth-quarter passing. Clubs spend years and millions of dollars looking for quarterbacks they can trust. You can trust Drew Brees.

Why he should not: I'm going to repeat myself here, but he has more talented supporting actors than Manning. OK, so there's no Reggie Wayne. But whom do you like better -- Collie or Meachem? Garcon or Devery Henderson? Reggie Bush and Pierre Thomas or Joseph Addai and Donald Brown? I'll probably take Clark over Jeremy Shockey, but it's close and could be a push. Anyway, you get the picture. Brees has more weapons at his disposal than Manning, and that could hurt him at the polls.

Bottom line: If the Saints run the table, and they have a shot, I think he makes it. The last time anyone went 16-0, Tom Brady was the landslide choice -- and that was when Randy Moss caught an NFL-record 23 touchdown passes. Brady had Moss and Wes Welker on that club, but voters didn't care. They wanted to reward someone on the Patriots for their perfect season, and Brady was the logical -- and right -- choice.

Brett Favre, QB, Minnesota

The numbers: 24 TDs, three interceptions, 2,874 yards and a passer rating of 112.1, second in the NFL.

Why he should win: He is enjoying the best season of his life, and he's doing it at 40. OK, so forget the age. This is a level playing field and Look at what he's done: He has more touchdowns than everyone but Brees and fewer interceptions than any of the ranked quarterbacks. Plus, he has lost only once. Peterson isn't the difference with the Vikings. He was there the past two years, and Minnesota was 18-16 -- going to the playoffs once. Nope, the Vikings are running away with their division for one reason, and it's Favre. With him in the huddle, there is no more complete team anywhere than Minnesota, and, yes, that includes Indianapolis and New Orleans.

Why he should not: Everywhere you look in Minnesota, there is talent galore. Peterson leads the NFC in touchdowns and is its second-leading rusher. Sidney Rice leads the NFC in yards receiving. Visanthe Shiancoe is second in touchdowns by a tight end. Defensive end Jared Allen tops the NFC in sacks. This is not a one-man show, even though Favre is the difference maker.

Bottom line: He's making a second-half push to the top, and he may be the people's choice. A lot of persons, including myself, were wrong about the guy, and a lot of persons figure that if he can win the MVP three times with seasons not as dazzling as this one, why can't he win it now? He can. But he probably won't, and the reason is the competition. The field is a lot tougher this time around.