In two-team race to 16-0, Saints have edge over Colts

When the New England Patriots refused to lose two years ago, we told ourselves that they could not lap the field because ... well, because no one wins all their regular season games, just as no one loses them.

But the Patriots did. And a year later the Detroit Lions went 0-16, and now we're faced with the prospect of two clubs -- Indianapolis and New Orleans -- running the table.

Could both pull a Belichick and go 16-0? I suppose. But both won't. In fact, my guess is that only one has a legitimate shot, and that one is New Orleans.

The Saints are hot, they play both sides of the ball, they have a reason to push the envelope and the upcoming schedule is beginning to fall their way. That's just a long way of saying, given the choice, I'm taking New Orleans to go undefeated.

Now let me explain why:

1. The quarterback. Drew Brees is one of the most accurate and productive quarterbacks in the business, and no lead is safe as long as he has the ball. Look what happened in Miami earlier this season. The Saints were down 24-3 late in the first half, yet overcame the deficit and won by 12. That told me something about Brees and the Saints. They have resilience.

Of course, so does Indianapolis. Plus, the Colts might have the best quarterback in the game and one who, unlike Brees, has been to and won a Super Bowl. So let's take this a step farther.

2. The schedule. Ah, now we're getting somewhere. The Colts have been living dangerously lately, with four straight victories by a total of 10 points before a fifth win achieved only after overcoming a 17-0 deficit. Don't get me wrong, all of that is positive. Good teams find ways to win. But it's also a sign that Indianapolis is vulnerable and may be ready to trip -- with this weekend's game against Tennessee the first speed bump.

If the Colts win there, I'd say the Dec. 17 game in Jacksonville could be a problem -- especially because it's a Thursday night game that follows a Dec. 13 date with Denver. Then there's the season finale in Buffalo, and anything is possible when you're playing in western New York on Jan. 3.

Now let's look at New Orleans. Its toughest remaining opponent is Dallas, but the Saints play the Cowboys at home where they're bulletproof, outscoring opponents by an average of 15 points per game. So I like them there.

The week before the Dallas game they're in Atlanta, and that might be tough because the Falcons pushed them earlier this season and their head coach, Mike Smith, is 12-1 at home. But the Falcons might not have Matt Ryan or Michael Turner. Plus, their secondary is dreadful. So tell me how they beat the Saints. They don't.

The sternest test might be this weekend in Washington ... yes, Washington. The Redskins are playing hard for Jim Zorn, nearly beat Dallas and Philadelphia and have the league's top-ranked pass defense. Plus, the Saints are operating on a short week. Danger, danger, danger.

3. The incentive. There is a lot more for New Orleans than there is for Indianapolis. The Colts have been down this road before, going 13-0 in 2005 before San Diego knocked them off.

But that's not what I'm talking about. Indianapolis has a three-game lead on the rest of the conference for home-field advantage, so once it achieves that goal the next is keeping people healthy for the playoffs. And how do you do that? You rest them.

I mean, do you really care about beating Buffalo in the season finale -- and risking injuries to starters -- when you're guaranteed to be home for the playoffs? I know Tony Dungy didn't. He rested his starters down the stretch, and I have to believe Jim Caldwell will, too.

Now, let's look at New Orleans. As well as the Saints are playing they're only a step ahead of Minnesota (10-1). The Vikings are the most complete team in the business, but if the playoffs were to start now they would have to go to New Orleans for a championship game -- and that's how the Saints like it.

But New Orleans must keep winning to keep Minnesota in the rear-view mirror. That means the starters start, every game is meaningful and the Saints keep pushing the accelerator. They won't rest people because they can't ... not until they're guaranteed the home-field advantage. And that may not happen until the last week of the regular season.

4) The legacy. I just think 16-0 is more important to New Orleans than it is to Indianapolis, and partly because of what I started to explain before. The Colts know the drill. They've been here before. Heck, in four of the last five seasons they started 7-0. So this is familiar territory.

It is not for New Orleans, which in its history has one 7-0 start, one conference championship appearance (2006) and no Super Bowls. The Saints want to make a name for themselves. The Colts already have.

If there's motivation it's with New Orleans for all the right reasons. I don't say they make it to 16-0. I'm just saying their chances are better than the Colts.