Dec. 4, 2009

Peek at the Week: Titans improbable contenders to derail Colts

By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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Game of the Week

Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | End Zone: Another 16-0 team?

The line: Colts by 6½

The story: The Titans have won their past five games. So have the Colts, only they had to pull off a fourth-quarter rally each time to do it -- saving their best for last week when they overcame a 17-0 deficit to beat Houston.

So here's my question: Why the 6½ point spread? I know the Colts haven't lost this season, but is there anyone out there who thinks Tennessee can't beat them here? I mean, the Colts have been teetering the past five weeks, while Tennessee keeps surging -- picking up confidence with each Vince Young triumph.

I can only imagine what that 99-yard drive last weekend did for this team and for Young. Now he and Chris Johnson have a chance to achieve their greatest success -- putting the Titans back on the playoff map and positioning them for a stretch drive where they could run the table.

I know that sounds implausible, with critics saying there's no way they can win 10 straight. Maybe. Except one thing -- they did it last year, people! Look at their schedule: After this weekend, only San Diego stands in the way, and that game -- on Christmas Day -- is in Tennessee. If the Titans beat Indianapolis, I all but guarantee they win against the Chargers.

But that is then, and this is now, and now the Titans' concern is slowing Peyton Manning and the Indy passing game. That won't be easy for the league's 31st-rated defense, but the Titans have the perfect antidote, and it's not their secondary or pass rush. It's Young and Johnson. You can beat Manning by keeping the ball away from him, and who better to push the chains than Young and Johnson?

Young hasn't lost in his past nine starts and demonstrated last weekend he can beat you with his arm as well as his legs. Johnson is this year's most electrifying running back -- a threat to score from anywhere on the field. The two are the perfect defense for Manning, guys who can stretch out drives, wear out defenses and keep one of the game's most dangerous quarterbacks on the sidelines.

Of course, that's what Miami thought when it played Indy the second game of the season. Manning had the ball for only 15 minutes that night. He still won. That point spread is a reminder never, ever, ever to take Manning for granted.

Something to consider: Tennessee's Johnson could become the first player in NFL history to run for 125 yards in seven consecutive games. He's the only player in league history to rush for 125 in six consecutive starts and average five yards a carry each time.

Three games I'd like to see

Philadelphia at Atlanta, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Eagles by 4½

The story: Some people think the hook here is Michael Vick returning to the Georgia Dome, and it would be if Vick were doing something ... anything. But he's not. He is little more than a high-priced bench jockey with the Eagles, who rely on Donovan McNabb, Brent Celek, Brian Westbrook and DeSean Jackson to push their offense.

Only Westbrook and, in all likelihood, Jackson won't be available for this game -- with both suffering from concussions. So that leaves it up to McNabb, Celek, Jason Avant and rookies LeSean McCoy and Jeremy Maclin to win a game the Eagles absolutely, positively must have to stay in the NFC East race.

Normally, the loss of Westbrook and, particularly, Jackson might be a huge concern. But the Falcons are handicapped, too, with quarterback Matt Ryan and Michael Turner hurt. So who suffers more? Make it the Falcons, who will be forced to rely on Chris Redman to keep them in the playoff picture.

A week ago, Redman rallied the Falcons to a last-second defeat of Tampa Bay, and that was terrific. What wasn't so terrific was what happened the rest of the game -- which was virtually nothing. The Eagles defense has holes, but I don't see Redman exploiting them. Turner? Sure. But if he doesn't play, it's up to Jerious Norwood, and ... sorry, but I'll take my chances with McNabb.

Something to consider: The Eagles have scored 24 or more points in each of their seven victories and four times eclipsed 30. Since 2000, they are 42-2 when scoring 30 or more.

Dallas at N.Y. Giants, 4:15 p.m. ET

The line: Cowboys by 2½

The story: I love this matchup, and it has nothing to do with the rivalry, the histories of the two teams or the impact this game has on the NFC East. Nope, this has more to do with which club is more in need of a tourniquet.

The Cowboys are on top of the division, so no problem there, right? Not so fast. It's December, and one thing we know about the Cowboys in December is that Big D does not stand for the last month of the year; it stands for Danger, Disaster and Defeat. They're positively awful down the stretch, with Tony Romo 5-10 in December and January.

That is a concern. But the Giants have bigger, much bigger, issues -- they are not proficient in any phase of the game right now. The quarterback is hurt. The running backs are hurt. The offensive line is little more than ordinary. The most reliable receiver is a tight end. The defense stinks -- with the line unable to reach the quarterback, the linebackers slow and defensive backs caught out of position. And the defensive coordinator is under siege.

No wonder they lost have five of their past six. Big Blue is Big P.U. I'm sorry, but I don't care how inept Dallas is in December. I don't see how the Giants summon the strength to fight back now. A month ago they lost to San Diego in a showdown coach Tom Coughlin termed "a one-game season," which meant they lost their season. I know I'm taking things a little too literally, but that seems to be how this is shaking out. With that defeat, the Giants realized what they are -- and what they are is not very good.

So they beat Atlanta two weeks ago. They blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter ... at home, no less -- and had to win in OT. That told me they can't trust their defense. The Denver game told me they can't trust anyone. So they're in a must-win position. Big deal. We saw what that did for them against San Diego. Nothing. I think we're looking at an encore performance.

Something to consider: The Giants' Justin Tuck had 2½ sacks the last time these two met here, and the Giants have 11 consecutive victories when he has at least one sack.

Minnesota at Arizona, 8:20 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Vikings by 4½

The story: The Vikings keep winning easily, but in Arizona they might have found one opponent that doesn't go so quietly into the night ... provided, of course, Kurt Warner plays. Warner put Arizona in the Super Bowl last season, and he could put it there again -- with Minnesota a pre-playoff litmus test for this year's Cardinals.

Granted, Minnesota and New Orleans are the two best teams in the NFC, but the two top seeds rarely make it to the conference championship game. So if you're looking for long shots, I would start with Arizona, a club that hadn't lost a road game until last week.

If there's a problem with the Cards, it's that they haven't taken care of business at home (2-3), but they can rectify that with a victory here. I don't know how it happens. Of course, I didn't see how they could get to last season's Super Bowl, either.

Warner can dissect the Vikings' secondary, provided he has the time -- and that's always an issue with Jared Allen on the field. Warner won't get much help from Chris Wells or Tim Hightower because almost no one runs on Minnesota. So it will be Arizona's passing game vs. Brett Favre and Adrian Peterson, and two is better than one –-- particularly if Favre, not Peterson, is behind the wheel.

Give me Minnesota.

Something to consider: Peterson has averaged 112.3 yards rushing in his past four games in December. He won't be clocked at 109 here, but he might be close.

Monday night lights

Baltimore at Green Bay, 8:30 p.m. ET

The line: Packers by 2½

The story: Baltimore isn't on life support ... not yet ... but it could be with a loss here. The Ravens found a way to beat Pittsburgh last week, and that was good. But it also was at home. Now they go on the road, where they have dropped three of their past four, and try to overcome a Packers team that needs a victory almost as badly and that is better, much better, throwing the ball than Pittsburgh was last week.

That could be a problem for Baltimore. No, it WILL be a problem. The Ravens may be forced into a game of tennis here, and that might have been OK two months ago, but Joe Flacco and Ray Rice aren't producing the points they did earlier this season -- with Flacco, in particular, slowing down. Bad enough he has just two touchdown passes in the past five games. Now he has to deal with a reinjured ankle, too.

Green Bay is hurting without Al Harris and Aaron Kampman, but Charles Woodson has elevated his game to where he is ... again ... a Defensive Player of the Year candidate. Look for Woodson to clamp down on the Ravens' chief receiving threat, and look for everyone else to clamp down on Rice. If you can check him, you can check the Ravens.

Something to consider: Rice has gained 5.8 yards per carry on the road this season.

Crummy game of the week

St. Louis at Chicago, 1 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Bears by 8½

The story: At last, an opponent Jay Cutler can beat. The Bears are a mess, but good news Chicago fans: St. Louis is worse. One difference: The Rams knew a long time ago they would be bad; the Bears didn't.

That's what happens when you start messing with a team's identity, and importing Cutler was a big, big mistake. Only here, he'll look like the quarterback Chicago thought it was getting because the Rams stink. Don't be misled, Chicago: He is what he is, and that's a turnover machine who cannot win.

The only reason to watch this game is to marvel at Steven Jackson. I don't know how the guy does it, but he keeps running for 1,000 yards with a less-than-scintillating supporting cast. With Kyle Boller at quarterback, Jackson should have plenty of carries -- especially against a Bears defense that has more holes than the Dan Ryan Expressway.

Something to consider: Psst, Fantasy geeks, listen up. It's a good week to play Chicago tight end Greg Olsen. Of his 13 career TDs, nine have been at home. Now he's home against St. Louis. Nice.

Upset of the week

Tennessee (+6½) over Indianapolis | Inside the NFL: Week 13 picks

The story: I thought Miami would beat New Orleans, and it didn't. I thought New England would beat New Orleans, and it didn't. Now I'm tempted to take Washington over New Orleans because of a lot of factors not worth going into, but I've learned my lesson. I'm going after the other undefeated team, and here's why: 1) They're wobbling, with five straight come-from-behind wins; and 2) They meet Vince Young and Chris Johnson.

The Colts had to overcome a 17-0 deficit last week, and one of these days the magic isn't going to be there. I say it's this day, and it's Young and Johnson who convince me.

The last time Young played the Colts he beat them 16-10 in Indianapolis. Earlier that year he lost to them 22-20 at home. So he knows how to stay with them, with his two career losses by a combined three points, and he knows how to overcome them. He's 2-2 against Indy, and all those games were played without Johnson.

We all know the Colts aren't all that great at stopping the run. So let's see them stop these two. Johnson regularly rips off huge gains, and Young isn't afraid to take off if there isn't an open target. An older, more experienced, more confident Young is a problem for Indy because a younger, less experienced and less confident Young beat them already -- and he did it without the league's most explosive weapon.

I know the Colts torched Tennessee earlier this year, with Johnson running for a season-low 34 yards that game. But I toss that game because it was when the Titans were in free fall without Young. This one will be close, and I admit it, Tennessee's leaky pass defense makes me nervous. But I like the Titans because I think Young and Johnson keep Peyton Manning off the field.

Games within the games

Philadelphia QB Michael Vick vs. his former team: Atlanta is where Vick was a star. Now it is where he will be a highly paid spectator. No matter. Look for Falcons fans to welcome him back with a loud ovation.

New York Giants QB Eli Manning vs. Dallas LB Bradie James: James is upset because Manning signed the wall in the visitors' locker room after the Giants' September win. "We won't forget that," he said. Yeah? Well, big deal. Manning was asked to sign it, and it's pretty commonplace around the NFL -- with players asked to sign the locker-room wall at Denver's Invesco Field. "I don't think he meant anything by it," said Cowboys coach Wade Phillips, "but it wasn't a great thing for him to do." I guess that means that DeMarcus Ware is going to put one of his signature hits on Manning. My take: Much ado about nothing.

Dallas coach Wade Phillips vs. December: Romo isn't the only guy feeling the heat. Phillips was put on notice this week by owner Jerry Jones that his future will depend on how he finishes the season. Geez, what a surprise.

Denver coach Josh McDaniels vs. Kansas City QB Matt Cassel: McDaniels coached Cassel a year ago when he was 10-5 as a starter. Nobody knows him as well. Now, nobody needs to beat him more. Look at the Denver schedule. This game is critical.

New Orleans defensive coordinator Gregg Williams vs. the team he was supposed to coach: Remember when Williams was the head coach in waiting in Washington, the guy who would succeed Joe Gibbs? Yeah, well, it never happened, with Washington hiring Jim Zorn instead. Washington knows it made a mistake. This is Williams' opportunity to drive the message home.

Five guys I'd like to be

Atlanta TE Tony Gonzalez: He aims for his fifth consecutive December game with a touchdown.

Carolina RB Jonathan Stewart: He's trying for his third consecutive game against Tampa Bay with 100 yards rushing and at least one TD.

Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning: He needs one touchdown pass to become the league's first ever to throw for 25 TDs in 12 consecutive seasons.

Houston QB Matt Schaub: He aims for his third consecutive game vs. Jacksonville with at least three scoring passes.

Dallas QB Tony Romo: He's 4-1 against the Giants and has a passer rating of 100 or better in three of his past four games against them. If he fizzles, look out. Critics will pin it on his road trip to Las Vegas.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

1: Victories needed for Marvin Lewis to tie Paul Brown for second most in Cincinnati history.
5: Consecutive seasons with 1,000 yards rushing for the Rams' Steven Jackson.
31: Dustin Colquitt punts inside the 20, a Kansas City record.
104.5: Average yards receiving for Chad Ochocinco vs. NFC in 2009.
4-0: Miami in December under Tony Sparano.
5-1: Donovan McNabb vs. Atlanta, including the playoffs.
5-1: Kansas City the past six years at home vs. Denver.
5-8: Seattle in its past 13 games at home.

Sunday's weather watch

• Atlanta: Dome
• Glendale, Ariz.: Partly cloudy, high of 66
• Chicago: Mostly cloudy, high of 39
• Cincinnati: Mostly cloudy, high of 43
• Cleveland: Mostly cloudy, high of 38
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Partly cloudy, high of 44
• Kansas City. Mo.: Cloudy, high of 41
• Jacksonville, Fla.: Scattered showers, high of 63
• Indianapolis: Mostly cloudy, high of 41
• Miami: Mostly cloudy, high of 76
• Pittsburgh: Mostly cloudy, high of 38
• Seattle: Partly cloudy, high of 39
• Tampa, Fla.: Partly cloudy, high of 66
• Landover, Md.: Partly cloudy, high of 42

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in Atlanta to let the dogs out on Michael Vick.
• I'll be at Giants Stadium to help Joe Girardi teach Tony Romo how not to slide this month, if you know what I mean.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Indianapolis, waiting to be con-Vinced.
•  Mike Freeman will be in Green Bay to shiver.