Peek at the Week: Cincy visit will let Vikes know where they stand

Game of the week

Cincinnati at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Favre, Allen ready for Bengals

The line: Vikings by 6½

The story: Brett Favre has a one-game hiccup and the sky is falling? Maybe. Favre has been one of the most accurate, most successful and most extraordinary quarterbacks this season ... through the first 11 games. Then he hit the wall against Arizona, and, hey, it happens, right? Sure, only it happens this time every year with Favre. Before this season he had 13 touchdown passes and 34 interceptions over his final five games the previous four years. That is more than just a trend; it could be a problem.

And this is where we find out. Favre is back at the Metrodome, where he hasn't lost this season, and he faces a playoff-caliber team in what amounts to a dress rehearsal for the postseason. The Bengals are a club that can defend, meaning they challenge Favre and the Minnesota offense as Arizona challenged them a week ago. The key, of course, is if Minnesota can get Adrian Peterson more involved than he was last weekend, and considering that he had 19 yards rushing that shouldn't be difficult. But the Vikings need to get him rolling downhill, force Cincinnati to back off and loosen up the Bengals so Favre can dissect them as he did everyone else the first 11 games.

But that's what I love about this game. It has a playoff feel to it, with both clubs forced to bring their A games. Remember, Cincinnati's defense is not just solid. The Bengals are allowing an average of 15.6 points per game, best in the league, and rank second against the run. Adrian Peterson, consider yourself warned.

To win, the Bengals must keep Favre, Peterson and the Vikings offense off the field, and they might just have the ticket in Cedric Benson. Benson is having the best season of his career, which makes life a whole lot simpler for Carson Palmer and the Bengals' pass attack. For years the Bengals didn't have the threat of the run; now they do, and Palmer, Chad Ochocinco and the Bengals' passing game are the beneficiaries. The evidence: When Benson has 25 or more carries the Bengals are 5-0.

Keep the ball and produce touchdowns, you probably force Minnesota to play catch-up -- and that's where Favre struggled last week. And that's where he has struggled the last four seasons this time of year.

Something to consider: At the Metrodome this season Favre has 16 touchdown passes, one interception and a passer rating of 119.1.

Three games I'd like to see

Denver at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Colts by 6½

The story: So the Colts haven't lost this season. This game is more about Denver and who the Broncos are. I have no conviction that they can win, and I don't know many people outside the 303 area code who do. But if they could somehow pull the upset, the Broncos might regain the legitimacy they worked so hard to achieve the first six weeks.

Then, they did not lose. Unfortunately, after six straight victories they could not win -- dropping four straight, including defeats to Baltimore, Pittsburgh and Washington, opponents with a combined record of 15-22. Now, all of a sudden, they're back on a roll, with the passing and running games in sync and, more important, the defense stonewalling opponents again.

But those opponents were the Giants and Kansas City. This is Peyton Manning, and the luck stops here. For Denver to succeed it must get on top, then stretch the lead to a position where its defense can dictate the tempo. Opponents get on top of Indy all the time. In fact, five of the past six have led in the fourth period. But the Colts know how to close, and they know how to close because of Manning, the AFC's top-ranked passer in the fourth quarter.

Yes, Indianapolis has had close calls, but this should not be one of them. The Colts not only are better than Denver, they have a history of walloping the Broncos here. In their past three games in Indianapolis, the Colts have averaged -- averaged -- 43 points against Denver, and try beating that with Kyle Orton, Brandon Marshall and Knowshon Moreno. It won't happen.

Something to consider: There is plenty of incentive here for the Colts, and I'm not talking about locking down the home-field advantage. With a victory they run their regular-season winning streak to 22, breaking the record set by the 2006-08 Patriots for the longest streak in NFL history.

San Diego at Dallas, 4:15 p.m., ET (CBS)

The line: Cowboys by 2½

The story: The Chargers haven't lost a game in December since 2005, winning 15 straight. The Cowboys haven't had a winning December in seven years, and they're already on schedule with a loss last weekend against the Giants. So this one's a mismatch, right? Maybe. The Chargers are on a seven-game roll, while Dallas has lost two of its past four. But the Cowboys have won their past five at home, surrendering an average of 11 points per game, and they know what's at stake -- namely, first place in the NFC East and Wade Phillips' future.

Essentially, Phillips must make it to the playoffs and win at least one game there to return as head coach. But getting to the playoffs might be more difficult than he or any Dallas fan imagines. After San Diego, the Cowboys visit unbeaten New Orleans. Then it's on to Washington, a club that has played hard the past three weeks and should've beaten Dallas in Texas. Then they wrap up the season against Philadelphia, and anything's possible there.

For Dallas to succeed, it better resurrect its running game. We all saw what the one-dimensional approach did for the Cowboys at the Giants. Tony Romo threw for nearly 400 yards and had a franchise-record 41 completions, yet Dallas lost. So change your ways, Wade, and give the run a chance. San Diego is vulnerable up front, ranking 21st against the run, and has been since the departure of Jamal Williams to a season-ending injury. Take advantage, Dallas, and go run first, Romo second. If you don't, you may regret it.

Something to consider: San Diego quarterback Philip Rivers is 5-1 on the road with 13 touchdown passes, three interceptions and a passer rating of 107.5. In his past four, Rivers has seven TDs, no interceptions and a 133.2 passer rating.

Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants, 8:20 p.m., ET | Preview | End Zone: AFC & NFC East

The line: Giants by 1½

The story: These two first met on Nov. 1, and the Eagles not only won, they embarrassed the Giants 40-17. Everything they did that afternoon worked, with Philadelphia scoring on six of its first seven possessions, rookie LeSean McCoy running for a 66-yard touchdown and Donovan McNabb producing a season-high 146.7 passer rating. "Something is not clicking the way it should," defensive end Justin Tuck said afterward. Six weeks later, something still isn't.

OK, so the Giants beat Dallas last weekend. That was good. They had to win, and they did. But they hemorrhaged a zillion yards and prevailed only because of some big plays. Do you think that happens two weeks in a row? Me neither. Plus, tell me how the Giants defense is better now than it was in November. It isn't, and the Atlanta game convinced me. The Giants won in OT but only after blowing a 14-point fourth-quarter lead ... at home, no less.

I think we all agree that McNabb and the Eagles offense will score plenty again. The Giants just have to keep it to field goals. Lately, the Eagles offense has been its own biggest obstacle, committing so many mistakes that it has produced only 10 touchdowns in its past 23 series inside the red zone. With DeSean Jackson back, the threat of the big play returns, and after what I saw against Dallas, yeah, I'd say that's a concern for New York. McNabb may not be as accurate as Romo, but he will dial up the big play -- and, usually, it's to Jackson.

I don't question the Giants defense here basically because it is what it is -- not very good. What I do question is their offense. It must be sharp enough to play tennis with Philadelphia. That means no turnovers, a solid running game and controlling the football -- essentially, none of what they did the first time these two met. But that was in Philadelphia, and the Giants are home -- and nobody in this series has been swept since 2004. Good luck, Tom Coughlin. You'll need it.

Something to consider: McNabb has won 10 of his past 14 starts against the Giants, including the playoffs.

Monday night lights

Arizona at San Francisco, 8:30 p.m., ET

The line: Cardinals by 2½

The story: Once upon a time, the 49ers thought this would be their chance for first place in the NFC West, but those dreams went kaput when the club lost five of six in the middle of the season, changing quarterbacks in the process.

The change was beneficial. The 49ers may have found their starter in Alex Smith, though it's not as if they had to go far to uncover the guy. He was sitting on the bench, waiting for a chance, and he got it. The losing streak? That's a problem because the 49ers had the toughest training camp out there, and you see the effects now. Guys are wearing down because they're wearing out.

Arizona is 5-1 on the road, and that one loss is only because Vince Young engineered a marvelous 99-yard drive, winning on the last play of the game. The Cardinals are better than they were a year ago, and one reason is their running game: They have one.

Beating Minnesota convinced me these guys are poised to go deep into the playoffs again, and they should prove it here. They're simply a better team than San Francisco, even though the 49ers won the season opener in Glendale. Kurt Warner wasn't himself then. Now he will be. That's good enough for me.

Something to consider: Arizona has won 10 of its past 11 within the division. The only loss? San Francisco in this year's season opener.

Crummy game of the week

Buffalo at Kansas City, 1 p.m., ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Even

The story: Of course there is no favorite here. Both teams are on the down escalator and close to ground level. You wonder why the Chiefs were in danger of missing their first sellout in 19 seasons before avoiding a blackout Friday? Look at their past two games. They lost by a combined score of 87-27. Now along comes Buffalo, a club that has less horsepower than a used Hornet, and you can understand why buyers prefer to spend Sunday walking the streets at the Plaza to watching incomplete passes at Arrowhead.

The Chiefs rank 30th in offense; the Bills 29th. The Chiefs rank 28th in scoring; the Bills 27th. Say no more. The score should be low, the no-shows high and the play mediocre. But all is not lost, Chiefs fans. Look who's next: Cleveland. If you think the crowd is sparse Sunday, get a load of next weekend's audience.

Something to consider: Kansas City punter Dustin Colquitt is tied for the NFL lead with 32 punts inside the 20, which should tell you something about the K.C. offense. Yep, lots of work for the punter.

Upset of the week

Miami over Jacksonville, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview | Week 14 picks

The line: Jaguars by 2½

The story: The Dolphins showed me something last week with their come-from-behind defeat of New England. They had to win to stay alive for the playoffs, and they did ... against a team that has dominated the division for years.

Now, they're gasping for air again, only this time it's at a place that could pose a problem -- someone else's stadium. It's bad enough that Miami is 2-4 on the road, losing to Buffalo the last time it hit the road; but now it plays in Jacksonville, where the Jags have won their past five.

That is an issue. Nevertheless, I still think the Dolphins have a chance, and here's why: New heroes are beginning to emerge on the scene, and, yes, I'm talking about Chad Henne.

The Dolphins have been moving away from the Wildcat lately for two reasons: 1) Ronnie Brown is injured; and 2) They're gaining confidence in Henne, who is 6-3 as a starter. Henne is the difference maker here. He wins or loses this game for Miami, and I say he wins it. The reason: Jacksonville's pass defense leaks, with the Jags ranked 23rd in the league and 20 touchdown passes completed against them.

Something to consider: Jacksonville's Maurice Jones-Drew needs two scores to set a franchise record for most rushing TDs in one season.

Games within the games

Green Bay NT B.J. Raji vs. Chicago C Olin Kreutz: Raji is a rookie; Kreutz is a decorated vet. But you would never know it listening to Raji talk about how much stronger he is than his opponent. I guess we'll see Sunday.

New England LB Adalius Thomas vs. coach Bill Belichick: Earlier this year Belichick deactivated Thomas for the Tennessee game. Now he sends him, along with three others, home Wednesday for being late. Thomas was stuck in traffic and said he called ahead, but he was sent home anyway -- a move that Thomas said "dumbfounded" him. "I'm an Indian. I'm not the Chief," he said. "I just roll with the punches."

St. Louis RB Steven Jackson vs. Tennessee RB Chris Johnson: Time to measure the league's two best rushers, mano a mano.

New York Jets QB Mark Sanchez vs. coach Rex Ryan: Sanchez won't play this weekend, and he's not happy about it. Too bad. He's not the head coach. Plus, Ryan made the right call. This is not about giving Kellen Clemens a chance. It's about preserving Sanchez's future.

New York Giants QB Eli Manning vs. the cold: Manning is 5-9 at home in December and January, and now the bad news: At kickoff the temperature could be in the low 30s.

Five guys I'd like to be

Poll What is the best game of Week 14? 36% Bengals at Vikings   14% Broncos at Colts   23% Chargers at Cowboys   23% Eagles at Giants   3% Cardinals at 49ers   Total Votes: 42842

New Orleans QB Drew Brees: He has six wins in seven games vs. Atlanta and a 106.8 passer rating in his past four starts within the division.

Green Bay QB Aaron Rodgers: He has 22 TDs and four interceptions in 11 career starts within the NFC North and aims for his fifth straight game within the division with a rating of 100 or more.

Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning: He has a 4-1 record at home vs. Denver, with 14 TDs and two interceptions.

Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne: He has eight TDs in five games against the Broncos, aiming for his sixth straight game against them with a score.

Arizona QB Kurt Warner: He's 9-2 against the 49ers and 4-0 at Candlestick Park. He also averages 329.4 yards passing in Monday night games, the highest in that series.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

7: Shaun Phillips sacks in his past seven games
18: Consecutive Tom Brady home wins
44: Drew Brees TDs in his past 16 games indoors
155: Consecutive sellouts at Arrowhead Stadium
131: Yards Vincent Jackson needs to become first San Diego receiver since Tony Martin to have consecutive 1,000-yard seasons
315: Yards needed by Peyton Manning to become first NFL quarterback to throw for 4,000 yards 10 times
5-0: Miami in December under Tony Sparano
8-2: Vince Young at home vs. the NFC

Sunday weather watch

• Atlanta: Dome
• Baltimore: Light wintry mix, high of 40
• Chicago: Snow showers, high of 37
• Houston: Partly cloudy, high of 71 (retractable roof)
• Indianapolis: Few showers, high of 40 (retractable roof)
• Jacksonville, Fla.: Showers, high of 72
• Kansas City, Mo.: Cloudy, high of 43
• Minneapolis: Dome
• Foxborough, Mass.: Mostly cloudy, high of 39
• Tampa, Fla.: Isolated thunderstorms, high of 78
• Nashville, Tenn.: Cloudy, high of 51
• Oakland, Calif.: Showers, high of 54
• Dallas: Partly cloudy, high of 68 (retractable roof)
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Few snow showers, high of 40

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in Atlanta with a red carpet for the Saints.
• I'll be in Indianapolis to take your orders at Shapiro's.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Minneapolis to harass Chad Ochocinco.
•  Mike Freeman will be at Giants Stadium to freeze.