Defensive transition taking toll, challenges ahead for Patriots

The Patriots have been a hot topic over the last week. If you didn't know their record, you would think they were out of the playoff hunt. What makes it even more amazing is that they are in first place in the AFC East with three games to go (at Buffalo, home against Jacksonville and at Houston) with an 8-5 record.

Missing a strong pass rush has exposed the Pats' secondary. (US Presswire)

In the big picture the Patriots are going through a transition year while still competing for a division title. Making a transition is always a tricky situation. When do you let a player go and when do you go another year with him? That is what the Patriots are going through right now. The nature of the NFL, with the salary cap and draft system, makes it hard for a team to stay at the top for a long time, but the Patriots have been able to do that despite the system.

In the past year the Patriots have let go a number of veterans. Most of them have been on defense: linebackers Teddy Bruschi and Mike Vrabel, safety Rodney Harrison and defensive end Richard Seymour. In the case of Bruschi, Vrabel and Harrison, it can be said that their best football was behind them and they were at or near the end of their careers. But the reality is they could not have kept all of these players because of the salary cap. Even without these players, they still are only $3.4 million under the cap.

Seymour's case was more complicated. He is still an outstanding player, but he was in the last year of his contract. Seymour had already walked out on the Patriots before while under contract demanding more money. Seymour, likely aware that this would be his last contract, was not going to accept a hometown discount to stay in New England and he had never accepted one before. The Patriots can now use his money to sign their younger players, including Vince Wilfork, who will be a free agent next year. They can also take that 2011 No. 1 draft choice they acquired from the Raiders for Seymour and help their team in the future.

Not only were the Patriots faced with what I thought would be a tough and expensive negotiation, but this was going to be Seymour's third contract. If you study players on their third contract they usually do not live up to the team's expectations. I can say that from firsthand experience. So when the Patriots traded him I viewed that as a big-picture move that sometimes you have to make to keep your team in contention in the long run but perhaps take a step back for a year. It remains to be seen if the Patriots do indeed take a step back this year and miss the playoffs. Remember, last year they did not make the playoffs despite an 11-5 record.

Some of the defensive problems the Patriots are facing this year can certainly be traced to the missed leadership of these players. This is why they signed Junior Seau. One aspect of the Patriots' defense not to overlook is when you trade experience for youth, you generally cannot run all of your schemes as effectively and don't have players who are familiar with the schemes and matchups from previous years. One of the things teams always told me about the Patriots was they were difficult to prepare for because they changed their game plan every week. I would imagine that would be more difficult without the more experienced players.

The Patriots' defense even in their Super Bowl years was not strong against the pass. What has fallen off is their pass rush, hurting the secondary. The Patriots have struggled in the draft at certain positions, which can happen to the best of teams. They have not been able to find outside linebackers in the draft, which is a key to rushing the passer for any 3-4 team. They have also had trouble finding cornerbacks, with the exception of Asante Samuel, who went to the Eagles as a free agent two years ago.

They have tried to help their defense in recent years with free-agent acquisitions and trades, but have not met with much success. The biggest pickup on defense, Adalius Thomas -- who called out Bill Belichick publicly last week and ended up on the bench -- has not worked from the beginning. In Baltimore his production was because of the scheme he was in and the number of great players around him. In New England he originally played inside linebacker. While his numbers were good, I was not impressed when I watched tape. He is not a good athlete in space to cover and tackle in the open field. When they have used him to rush the passer he has not shown the quickness to beat tackles on the edge. This is obvious again this year.

All too often, Randy Moss has shown less than max effort. (US Presswire)

On offense, I still think they are excellent. The teams that I have talked to still have tremendous respect for Tom Brady, Randy Moss, Wes Welker and Ben Watson. The running game is good enough when you include their passing weapons. For the most part Brady has been effective, but I do see him missing more throws this year than I remember in the past. The toughest thing to judge when evaluating a player is how much affect injuries and returning from them have on his performance. I think some of those factors are reasons for Brady's inconsistency. I also think they miss Jabar Gaffney at wide receiver and have struggled to replace him.

That brings us to Randy Moss. On this week's NFL Today I used one clip to show Moss's lack of effort on a route where he was the primary receiver on and it resulted in an incompletion. This is not new for Moss. Against the Dolphins the previous week he did it a number of times and has done it for years. In the past, it was mostly when blocking or if he knew he was not the primary receiver.

I have always been mystified why the Patriots let Moss get away with the lack of effort. It seems to go against everything they want from their players. What I have seen differently in the past couple of games is Moss occasional lack of effort when he is the primary receiver. One team told me when you press Moss and put a safety over the top, thus showing him double coverage, he won't give great effort. The book on Moss has been in recent years to be physical with him at the line of scrimmage and slow him down, the most effective way to stop him. Darrelle Revis of the Jets has been very successful with that technique. But something else could be bothering Moss to have him playing like that now.

Moving forward, the Patriots need a good offseason or they will lose control of the division to the fast-charging Dolphins, who are only one game behind now. The Patriots need to have their young players come through on defense and they need more immediate help from the 2010 draft.

Another major issue they will confront in the next year is Brady's contract. Next season is the final year on his deal, same as Peyton Manning. Colts owner Jim Irsay has already declared Indianapolis will re-sign Manning and he will retire with the Colts. We have heard no such declaration from the Patriots. That is not something they have to do publicly, but I certainly believe they should do it privately.

It is one thing to say we are not going to do any deals until they know what the new CBA says, but Brady must be handled right. It will be interesting if Brady accepts another hometown discount in his next contract.