Dec. 18, 2009

Peek at the Week: Bengals' focus may be shaken in San Diego

By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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Game of the week

Cincinnati at San Diego, 4:05 p.m. ET (CBS) | Henry's death shakes Bengals

The line: Chargers by 6½

The story: I'll be honest with you. I don't know how Cincinnati suits up for this one, not with the Chris Henry tragedy this week. But the Bengals have been through this before, with the team carrying on in October after defensive coordinator Mike Zimmer's wife died, and it carried on remarkably: It knocked off Baltimore in Baltimore.

This job is more difficult. The Chargers are better than Baltimore, much better, and they're playing in their favorite month. Not only is Norv Turner unbeaten in December as Bolts coach; his quarterback, Philip Rivers, has never lost in this month. The Chargers are white-hot, they're home and they can virtually solidify themselves as the No. 2 AFC seed with a victory.

The Bengals know what they're up against, and it's not only San Diego. It's a collective feeling of despair, with the team suffering two tragedies in one season. I can't see how they get through this. Not here. Not now. Henry was a contributor until injuries sidelined him for the season, and he has plenty of friends in the locker room.

Without him, the Bengals passing attack has suffered -- and it's easy to see why. They have one deep threat, and that's Chad Ochocinco. If Carson Palmer can't get the ball to him, he's in trouble. Sure, running back Cedric Benson gives them a dimension they haven't had, but stop him, and the Bengals are reduced to one playmaker opponents can double cover.

What? You think Laveranues Coles is going to beat you? Please. Andre Caldwell? Nope. He has disappeared the past five games, with no scores and no more than 35 yards in any game. I would like the Bengals' chances better here if they had a receiving threat at tight end -- a position that always seems to bite the Chargers -- but they don't.

So tell me how they keep up with Rivers. He has weapons galore, some of whom you will see in the end zone here. Cincinnati's defense is good, but it's not good enough to keep the Bengals close down the stretch. Plus, remember the last time Cincinnati was on the West Coast? Uh-huh, it lost at Oakland.

Something to consider: The Chargers' LaDainian Tomlinson aims for his sixth consecutive game with a rushing touchdown.

Three games I'd like to see

Miami at Tennessee, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Titans by 2½

The story: People who say it's a dull Sunday must have forgotten about this game. Miami is making another push for the playoffs, while the Titans look like the team that last season had a chokehold on the AFC.

The incentive is with the Dolphins, who finish with two home games and improve their playoff hopes with a victory here, but never undersell Tennessee. The Titans lost their first six and were supposed to be goners. Then they won six of their next seven and suddenly joined the chorus talking about a playoff run.

Frankly, I don't see it. I think the loss in Indianapolis finished them, but the way they're playing now they deserve to be included. The question, of course, is if they play with Vince Young. They're a different team with him at quarterback, and the record shows it. They win twice as many as they lose with Young in the lineup and are 6-1 with him this season.

Good, huh? Miami is 6-0 in December under Tony Sparano. I thought the Dolphins were finished when they lost Ronnie Brown, but let's hear it for offensive coordinator Dan Henning. He shuffled his plays, pretty much scrapped the Wildcat and turned things over to Ricky Williams. Good moves. Williams will gain 1,000 yards, and the Dolphins are in the playoff mix.

Williams has had a solid season, but he's not the best running back on this field. Chris Johnson is. In fact, he's the best running back anywhere right now. With seven touchdowns of 50 or more yards, he's a threat to take it to the house every time he touches the ball -- and look for him to get it plenty here. The Dolphins' success depends on how they defend Johnson, and good luck, guys. You'll need it.

Something to consider: Chris Johnson has a franchise-record eight consecutive games with 100 yards rushing.

Atlanta at N.Y. Jets, 1 p.m. ET

The line: Jets by 5½

The story: The Jets' Mark Sanchez was practicing again this week, and teammates insist he will play. So the Jets would have Sanchez, the Falcons would not have Matt Ryan. The Jets would have Thomas Jones, the Falcons would not have Michael Turner. The Jets would be home, and the Falcons would be on the road, where they are 1-5 -- losing their past four WITH Ryan.

Atlanta, you have a problem.

The Falcons almost surely will start Chris Redman again, and while he threw for over 300 yards last week he still lost. People keep telling me that if Redman plays as he did against New Orleans ... that if he just can dissect the Jets' secondary as he did the Saints' ... that if he's as accurate as he was against New Orleans ... Wait a minute, stop right there. You want to compare Saints defensive backs to the Jets? Kyle Farnsworth is closer to Mariano Rivera than these two ... at least as it stands now, with injuries crippling the New Orleans secondary.

The Jets' Rex Ryan this week went on a one-man Darrelle Revis campaign, pushing his star cornerback as the league's best defensive player. I don't know about that, but I do know that Roddy White won't be a factor with Revis on him. Revis shut down Andre Johnson, Randy Moss (twice), Steve Smith, Marques Colston, you name it, and White will join the list Sunday. So Redman will be reduced to Tony Gonzalez, and, just a hunch, the Jets have something in store for him, too.

That's why it comes down to Jones vs. the Falcons' Jason Snelling, and I'll take Jones in a heartbeat. I'll take Sanchez vs. the Atlanta secondary, too. The Falcons' best hope? Forcing turnovers like the ones Sanchez committed vs. Buffalo in October. Otherwise, the offseason comes early.

Something to consider: Gonzalez has at least four catches in each of his six career games against the Jets.

Green Bay at Pittsburgh, 4:15 p.m. ET | Preview

The line: Steelers by 1½

The story: The Steelers lose five straight, including a sleepwalk in Cleveland, and now they're favored to beat a Green Bay team that's on a five-game roll? What part of this am I missing? Pittsburgh has been in a long winter's nap most of the past two months. So now that the Steelers are home, that will wake them up? Color me skeptical. I know they're tough at Heinz Field, but Cincinnati beat them there. So did Oakland ... Oakland, for crying out loud.

Coach Mike Tomlin promises to shake things up, but earth to Mike: It's too late. This team is on life support, and it doesn't seem to matter if Ben Roethlisbeger plays or not. The Steelers underachieve. What does matter is having safety Troy Polamalu in the lineup, and he is out again Sunday. That means more confusion in the secondary, which is precisely where Aaron Rodgers and the Packers can -- and should -- win this game.

I mean, if the Steelers can't cover Louis Murphy, how do they cover Donald Driver or Greg Jennings? Moreover, when they can't stop Bruce Gradkowski, tell me how they put Rodgers in check.

I think it will be close, but there is nothing about that Steelers defense, sans Polamalu, that inspires confidence. In five of their seven losses the Steelers blew fourth-quarter leads, and that is not typical of a Dick LeBeau unit. Green Bay has the ammunition to come from behind, which it might have to do here, but big deal. Others have done it before. Why not Green Bay now?

Something to consider: Green Bay's Charles Woodson has three interceptions in his past three games vs. AFC opponents, including one he returned for a touchdown. Since joining the Packers in 2006, he has an NFL-best six interceptions for touchdowns.

Monday night lights

N.Y. Giants at Washington, 8:30 p.m. ET

The line: Giants by 2½

The story: After last weekend's loss to Philadelphia, I heard one of the Giants say he wasn't all that concerned because the club is still in the playoff picture and can make it by running the table. Sure, it can ... if this were last year's Giants. Or the year before. Or the year before that. But it's not. This club has been on a downward spiral for two months, losing six of its past eight games, and that's not the worst of it. What bothers me is how the Giants are losing -- namely, without anything that passes for a defense.

They don't pressure the passer. Their linebackers are slow. And their defensive backs couldn't cover Cris Carter. I don't mean Cris Carter then; I mean Cris Carter now. That's a little unfair to the cornerbacks, who are serviceable, but the safeties aren't. Take a look at Aaron Rouse trying to cover DeSean Jackson on last weekend's game-winning touchdown, and tell me he shouldn't be clocked with an hourglass.

The Giants have major, major holes in their defense, and one game isn't going to solve them. So, you say, Washington is no big deal. Well, yes, as a matter of fact, it is now. The Redskins should've beaten Dallas. They should've beaten Philadelphia. They would've beaten New Orleans if Shaun Suisham made a 23-yard field goal. And they crushed Oakland in Oakland, something neither Philadelphia nor Cincinnati could do.

Bottom line: The Redskins have found something, and that something is working. They're a dangerous team to anyone desperate for victory, which means they're a dangerous team to the Giants. Washington is playing hard for Jim Zorn, and it is determined to be a playoff factor even if it isn't in the playoffs -- which means trouble for the Giants this week and Dallas next.

Something to consider: Eli Manning has won six of his past seven starts against Washington.

Crummy game of the week

Cleveland at Kansas City, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview

The line: Chiefs by 1½

The story: The Chiefs avoided their first blackout in 19 years last week with a last-minute run on 3,500 tickets. They won't be so fortunate this time around, and look no further than the opponent for an explanation. Ladies and gentlemen, your Cleveland Browns!

It's one thing to be bad. It's another to be bad and ugly. The Browns have been one of the league's worst and most dull teams most of this season, which is one reason they're pushing everything but the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame to lure Mike Holmgren as their next GM.

But I said most of this season. Lately, the Browns have a pulse. They should've beaten Detroit, and they did beat Pittsburgh. Finally, they're not treating the end zone like the DMZ, and finally they might have found a quarterback. The stat sheet, please: Brady Quinn has seven touchdown passes and no interceptions over his past four starts. A little more of that, and Cleveland might have solved its most significant problem.

Of course, both clubs have a raft of troubles. If they didn't they wouldn't have five wins between them. I make this a low-scoring game, with the club that has more takeaways winning it. But that's a guess. Here's a more reliable prediction: There will be more shoppers on the sidewalks of the Plaza than there will fans in the stands at Arrowhead.

Something to consider: The Browns aim for back-to-back victories for the first time since Sept. 28 and Oct. 13, 2008.

Upset of the week

Washington (+2½) over the New York Giants | Inside the NFL: Week 15 picks

The story: No, I don't think this is a "Win One for Vinny" scenario. Vinny Cerrato is gone, and Jim Zorn will be next, and the Washington Redskins are about winning games for anyone but themselves. Unfortunately, they haven't won much of anything, but they did push Dallas, Philadelphia and New Orleans before bombing the Raiders.

The point is: They're playing well enough to win, and they're playing well enough to win here.

Yes, the Giants were in a situation like this in 2006 and beat Washington in the season finale. But they had Tiki Barber running for a franchise-record 234 yards then. Barber is gone, and so is New York's defense of three years ago. Now it leaks like the Titanic, taking the team's playoff hopes down with it.

Two months ago, the Redskins offense couldn't find water with a diving rod. Now it's on tear, scoring 24 or more points in each of its past three games. I think it has its way with New York's defense, just as most opponents have their way with the Giants defense, and pulls off the upset.

Games within the games

St. Louis Rams vs. swine flu: As if they don't have enough troubles, now the Rams have to beat the flu. Sorry, Cleveland is easier. The team canceled practice Thursday because of the swine flu, and maybe that's a good thing. I mean, have you seen St. Louis play?

New York Giants WR Mario Manningham vs. the sidelines: He had two would-be touchdowns erased last weekend because he was out of bounds, and that wasn't something extraordinary; it has been happening a little bit too much lately. "That has been an issue we have been working to try to improve," coach Tom Coughlin said. Keep it up, guys.

Pittsburgh defensive backs Ryan Clark and Ike Taylor vs. the local media: Clark had a name this week for reporters that cover the team, and you wouldn't want to step on it. Apparently, he and Taylor feel the secondary has suffered unfair criticism this season, with Taylor saying he is "fed up" with the media's portrayal of the Steelers and their secondary. Great, now maybe they can prove people wrong by stopping somebody.

Fox analyst Brian Billick vs. cheering in the press box: The former Baltimore head coach returns to M&T Stadium to do the Chicago-Ravens game, and I know one roster he won't have to review. Merry Christmas, Baltimore. It's good to have Billick back.

Kansas City receivers vs. the football: The Chiefs lead the league in dropped passes with 39.

Five guys I'd like to be

New England QB Tom Brady: The only certainties in life are death, taxes and Brady over the Bills. He's 14-1 against them, with 32 TDs and 11 interceptions.

Pittsburgh LB LaMarr Woodley: He aims for his sixth consecutive game with a sack, and he's going against Green Bay. Can you say, "Cha-ching?"

Arizona QB Kurt Warner: He needs only three TDs to become the first quarterback since Fran Tarkenton to have 100 each for two NFL teams. Now the good news: He plays Detroit, the league's worst pass defense and an opponent Warner has a career passer rating of 101 against.

N.Y. Jets CB Darrelle Revis: He aims for his fourth consecutive game with an interception, and with Chris Redman throwing, I like his chances.

Philadelphia QB Donovan McNabb: He has won his past three vs. San Francisco and in his previous performance against the 49ers, he tied a career high with five TD passes, threw for 342 yards and had a 155.4 passer rating.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

0: Times Houston has played in St. Louis
1: Catches needed by Derrick Mason to reach 850 for his career
1.5: Sacks that Elvis Dumervil needs to set a Denver single-season record
2: Rushing touchdowns the Jets' Thomas Jones needs to tie his own single-season franchise record
5.4: Jamaal Charles' rushing average since becoming a starter
6: Consecutive victories for Baltimore at home vs. the NFC
8: DeSean Jackson TDs of 50 yards or more
25: Interceptions by Buffalo, tops in the NFL
156: Consecutive games at Arrowhead without a blackout
6-0: Miami in December under Tony Sparano

Sunday weather watch

• Baltimore: Sunny, high of 35
• Orchard Park, N.Y.: Flurries, high of 28
• Detroit: Dome
• Kansas City, Mo.: Partly cloudy, high of 40
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Snow showers, high of 34
• Philadelphia: Snow showers, high of 37
• Pittsburgh: Mostly cloudy, high of 32
• St. Louis: Dome
• Nashville, Tenn.: Cloudy, high of 40
• Denver: Mostly sunny, high of 48
• San Diego: Mostly cloudy, high of 67
• Seattle: Showers, high of 49
• Charlotte, N.C.: Partly cloudy, high of 42

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in New Orleans to start the countdown on the end of Wade Phillips' career in Dallas.
• I will be in San Diego to taste-test the oatmeal pancakes at the Encinitas Café.
•  Mike Freeman will be at Giants Stadium to line up tee times for Atlanta.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Washington, D.C., to usher in another Allen Era.