Bengals' Lewis can control whether Jets play in postseason

So the Indianapolis Colts sit their starters, and, suddenly, the New York Jets are off life support. Now all they need is one more victory to reach the playoffs, and I love people who tell me that they ... and they alone ... decide their fate.

Not so fast, Sherlock. The Cincinnati Bengals decide their fate, too, just as Indianapolis decided their fate Sunday.

Carson Palmer might get some rest during the Bengals' regular-season finale. (Getty Images)

If the Bengals were to pull a Jim Caldwell and sit starters for part or most of the game, the Jets probably make it. It's the difference of facing Carson Palmer or J.T. O'Sullivan, and I know where I stand. If I'm Rex Ryan I write another open letter to my next opponent, pleading it to sit its key players.

It worked against the Colts, and let's be honest: The Jets probably don't win if Peyton Manning doesn't sit. With Manning, the Colts were up by five; without him, they were outscored 19-0 -- with Manning's replacement, Curtis Painter, providing the go-ahead touchdown when his fumble was recovered in the Indianapolis end zone.

But forget about the Colts, and let's concentrate on the Cincinnati Bengals. The question with them is: With the playoffs clinched, what is Marvin Lewis' next move? He can play his starters, as the Giants' Tom Coughlin did in the regular-season finale in 2007, or he can rest them, as the Colts did in the second half Sunday.

The decision is his, and there are a lot of New York Jets fans who would appreciate it if he and his team took the day off. A playoff spot is at stake, and Cincinnati isn't involved because the Bengals already won their division. So, Jets fans wonder, what's another loss?

Well, let's find out.

The league's move to switch the game to Sunday night might help with Lewis' decision because, by then, the Bengals will know where they stand in the playoff picture. New England will have played, and if it loses at Houston -- a distinct possibility considering the Patriots' travails on the road -- a victory by the Bengals moves them one spot from the fourth to the third seed.

I know that doesn't sound like much, but it could push them into playing someone like Denver -- a club that lost seven of its last nine. For the Broncos to qualify, the Jets or Ravens would have to lose and Denver would have to beat Kansas City. I like the chances for Baltimore and Denver to win, and the more I look at what's ahead for Cincinnati the more I like the Jets' chances, too.

The reason? Basically, I believe Marvin Lewis approaches Sunday's game as he would a fourth preseason contest.

I know he'll have plenty of time to pick his spots, but I'm sure his plan already is in place -- just as it was in 2005 when the Bengals won the AFC North. Lewis didn't play Carson Palmer for four quarters in the season finale against Kansas City. He didn't play him one half, either. He played one quarter in a meaningless game where the Bengals were sliced, spliced and diced by Kansas City.

According to people in and around the Bengals, the team is preparing this week to play everybody Sunday -- something Jets fans don't want to hear. But the next question is: Play them for how long? Manning played Sunday, but when he left so did Indianapolis' chances for a 15th victory.

Only Lewis knows what he's thinking, and maybe he figures that the last time he rested starters it didn't work out so well, so let's try something different. But I don't think so. I think he sticks to his convictions and does what he thought was right in 2005 -- namely, rest Palmer after a period or two to keep him healthy for the more meaningful game the following week.

And I'm not alone. Oddsmakers make the Jets a 10-point favorite, and tell me how that happens without Cincinnati sitting people. It doesn't.

Look, if the seeds don't change between now and this time next week the Jets and Bengals meet again in the wild-card round of the playoffs -- and the feeling within the Cincinnati camp could be to reveal as little as possible Sunday and save your ammunition for the following week. That means sitting guys down, and sitting them down seems the likely choice.

Which also means the Jets don't really control their own destiny.

Yeah, so if they win they're in, but I don't think they beat Cincinnati with Carson Palmer and Co. going four quarters. I think they need the sort of help they received Sunday, and, yes, I also think they get it. Sitting down starters makes too much sense for the Bengals not to do it.