Jan. 8, 2010

Peek at the Week: Last week's losers try to turn into wild-card winners

By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
Follow Clark

Game of the week

Philadelphia at Dallas, 8 p.m. ET Sat. | Matchup | Preview

The line: Cowboys by 3½

The story: This is the second game between these two in six days, and logic says the Cowboys win again. They swept Philadelphia this year and crushed the Eagles last weekend in a game that could've guaranteed Philadelphia a first-round bye. More than that, Dallas seems to create matchup problems for the Eagles on both sides of the ball.

First, there's the coverage of tight end Jason Witten. A year ago, the Eagles could tie him up with Brian Dawkins. Not anymore. And that's a problem. Then there's covering the point of attack with cornerback Asante Samuel, who has trouble defending the screen and the run. Samuel makes big plays, but he makes big misses, too -- and last week's game was a case in point.

Lastly, there's Philly's offensive line. Without center Jamal Jackson, it could be in trouble. Guard Max Jean-Gilles -- who stepped in for Nick Cole, now the team's center -- was nothing special last week, and that's being kind, while tackle Jason Peters struggled with the pass rush.

Then again, almost everyone struggled with the Dallas pass rush. Philadelphia had trouble blocking Dallas' nickel front, which allowed the Cowboys to drop seven into coverage -- and caused Donovan McNabb all sorts of headaches.

But McNabb isn't the focus of attention here. Tony Romo is. He has been incendiary the past month, and if he plays as he did a week ago I don't know how Philadelphia wins. It's not just that he's accurate; it's that he's handling the pressure and not making big mistakes as he didn't in the past. Exhibit A: A week ago, he completed six passes in the face of 11 Philadelphia blitzes.

But that takes me to another concern, and I don't know how to say it other than this: Philadelphia misses Jim Johnson. Sean McDermott did a nice job in his first year as defensive coordinator, but teams like Dallas used to fear Johnson and his ability to attack your strengths. I'm not sure that's the case anymore. The Cowboys seemed to have an answer for everything McDermott and the Eagles tried a week ago.

I know that paints a dismal picture for Philadelphia, but buck up, Eagles fans. If there's one thing I keep going back to, it is this: Andy Reid has never lost the first game of the playoffs. He's 7-0. Wade Phillips is 0-4 in the playoffs. Furthermore, Dallas hasn't won a playoff game since 1996.

Though everything seems to tilt toward Big D, it did two years ago, too. That's when the Cowboys, then the best team in the NFC, hosted the No. 5 seed, the New York Giants, and I think you know what happened. Memo to Andy Reid: Study that playbook.

Something to consider: Since Reid was hired in 1999 no other franchise has more divisional (7) or championship playoff appearances (5) than Philadelphia.

The rest of the story

N.Y. Jets at Cincinnati, 4:30 p.m. ET Sat. | Matchup | Preview

The line: Bengals by 2½

The story: Rex Ryan is talking it up again, and now he says oddsmakers have it wrong -- that it's his team that should be the favorite here. You know something? I think he's right. Cincinnati seems to be in a downward spiral, losing three of four and struggling to put points on the board in the past two. Wide receiver Chad Ochocinco has a bad knee that might or might not be a concern, and the Bengals looked positively dreadful last weekend in a 37-0 waxing. OK, so they mailed it in. But a passer rating of 1.7 for Carson Palmer?

The Jets, meanwhile, have momentum, the league's top-ranked rushing attack, the league's top-rated defense and Defensive Player of the Year candidate Darrelle Revis. They have won five of their past six, losing only to Atlanta on a last-gasp touchdown pass, and absolutely hammered the Bengals a week ago -- overwhelming them in every conceivable area.

Of course, Cedric Benson didn't play that evening, and Ochocinco bowed out early -- and those two guys are critical to Cincinnati's ability to move the ball. Ochocinco is the team's only legitimate deep threat, and I don't figure him to do much -- not because of the injury but because Revis will cover him. If Randy Moss, Andre Johnson, Steve Smith, Marques Colston and Reggie Wayne couldn't solve Revis, I don't know how Ochocinco does.

Then there's Benson, and this is where it gets interesting. He ran for 100 yards in six of the 13 games he played and is averaging 106 per game at home. The Bengals desperately need another C-note from him again.

First of all, it balances their attack. Second, it chews up yards and the clock. Third, it takes the heat off Palmer. With linebacker David Harris banged up, the Jets might be vulnerable here -- but I doubt it. They're confident, and it's easy to see why: They figure they have nothing to lose here, and they don't. The way I see it, Cincinnati is the club with something to prove.

Something to consider: The Jets are aiming for their fourth road victory in a row and third consecutive defeat of the Bengals.

Baltimore at New England, 1 p.m. ET Sun. (CBS) | Matchup | Preview

The line: Patriots by 2½

The story: These guys have played before, too, only it was three months ago when New England held on for a 27-21 victory. That was a game where Ravens linebacker Ray Lewis termed the officiating "an embarrassment," with Lewis peeved at the perceived protection of quarterback Tom Brady. Nevertheless, Brady was sacked a season-high three times, and the Ravens frazzled him as they did down the stretch in 2007 when he rallied New England to a last-minute victory.

But that was then, and this is now, and now Tom Brady is missing one of his favorite targets. Correction, he is missing THE favorite target, Wes Welker, who had a league-best 123 catches before bowing out with torn knee ligaments. Welker's loss has a direct impact on Randy Moss, but tell me which Ravens cornerback can cover the guy. Someone? Anyone? So you double-cover Moss. Trust me, Brady will find other targets if Moss can't shake his opponents.

Look, Baltimore has a decent chance, but there are a couple of things that bother me. One is where this game is played. New England didn't lose at home this season and hasn't lost in its past 11 playoff games there. That's a concern. Second is the Baltimore pass rush. It's not all that effective. So the Ravens must blitz linebackers, corners, safeties, you name it, to pressure Brady, and that puts pressure on the corners. And where is Baltimore the most vulnerable? You got it.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: When it's Joe Flacco vs. Brady, it's Brady in a landslide. That's no knock on Flacco. It's just that Brady knows how to win big games. Which is why Baltimore doesn't want it to come down to Flacco vs. Brady. The object for the Ravens is to make Ray Rice and Willis McGahee the heroes here, figuring if they can control the clock they can control the game. And maybe they're right. A little less Brady means a little more of a chance.

Something to consider: Baltimore is 3-1 in wild-card games and 2-0 on the road. The club has also won five of seven road playoff games and not allowed a 100-yard rusher in its past 11 playoff starts.

Green Bay at Arizona, 4:40 p.m. ET Sun. | Matchup | Preview

The line: Cardinals by 2½

The story: There was a story floating around out there that Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt was ticked with the Packers' don't-stop-till-you-drop approach last weekend in that 33-7 finale, with Green Bay pushing the pedal to the medal while comfortably ahead. But it turns out that's not exactly true. Whisenhunt said he was more irritated with his own club and how it got shoved around the field. Maybe he's posturing, maybe not. All I know is that now he and his team have an opportunity to do something about it.

Like two others this weekend, the Cardinals have a chance to beat the club that hammered them a week earlier. There's no question this year's Cardinals are better than last year's team, a club that was within a minute of winning the Super Bowl, but there's also no question it's operating at a disadvantage because its opponent is one of the most complete teams in the playoffs.

The Packers can run. They can throw. They play solid defense. And they don't turn over the football, with their plus-24 turnover margin leading the league. Plus, they're hot, winning seven of their past eight and are playing in a stadium where the home team is no better than .500.

Maybe this comes down to Kurt Warner's playoff experience vs. Aaron Rodgers' inexperience, and if I'm a Cards fan, I hope so. Otherwise, Arizona is in trouble. The Cards had more turnovers than anyone outside of Detroit and led the league in fumbles lost with 18, and they won as many as they lost over the final six games. They also have injuries to Anquan Boldin and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie that bear following.

A year ago, the Cardinals came out of nowhere to surprise opponents. They will surprise no one this season, but they might have to come from behind to catch Green Bay.

Something to consider: The Cardinals are the only NFL team not to lose back-to-back games this season.

Upset of the week

N.Y. Jets (+2½) over Cincinnati | Pete's Picks

I see where Cincinnati practiced in the snow Thursday, and here's hoping that's not so they can get used to the speed of their offense this weekend.

Frankly, I don't know where they find the points. Chad Ochocinco has a sore knee, and there isn't another deep threat on the roster. Ochocinco says his knee is fine, but so what? He still has to solve Darrelle Revis. So that means Cedric Benson is going to carry this offense? I don't think so.

The Jets feel good about themselves, and it's easy to see why: Cincinnati looks as if it hit the wall from a long, emotional and trying season, while the Jets defense keeps improving -- allowing 47 points the past six games, or less than eight points per start. That spells upset.

Games within the games

Dallas CB Michael Jenkins vs. Philadelphia WR DeSean Jackson: Jackson claimed in a Twitter report that "them boys are scared of me," but I don't know who he had in mind. Jackson was no factor in the Eagles' loss last weekend. He also said Jenkins never has shut him down, but let's look at the big picture, DeSean: Your team just got shut down. This isn't the time to be yapping.

Cincinnati WR Chad Ochocinco vs. N.Y. Jets CB Darrelle Revis: Ochocinco said last week that if he stunk he was going back to being known as Chad Johnson. Well, then, nice to meet you, Mr. Johnson. Revis and a bad knee hampered Ochocinco last week. Both are back again, and good luck to No. 85. He's going to need it.

Baltimore LB Ray Lewis vs. New England QB Tom Brady: The last time they met, Lewis charged officials with "preferential treatment" of the star quarterback, saying it was "embarrassing to the game." Lewis said he has put that behind him. The question is: Can he put the Pats behind him, too?

Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald vs. Green Bay CB Charles Woodson: Two of the best at their positions in a mano-a-mano showdown. Woodson plays several positions -- inside in the nickel, corner, safety -- but he'll see plenty of Fitzgerald, who set a career high with 13 TDs. With Anquan Boldin hurting, the winner of this matchup could determine the outcome of the game.

Dallas coach Wade Phillips vs. his future: Phillips hasn't won a playoff game, and he better win one now or else. His contract is up, with the club able to pick up a one-year option. If he loses this weekend, you can open the auditions Monday.

Five guys I'd like to be

New England QB Tom Brady: He hasn't lost a playoff game at home, winning eight times, completing 64 percent of his passes for 1,778 yards, 13 touchdowns, five interceptions and a passer rating of 89.9. Brady can become the first quarterback in the Super Bowl era to win his first nine home playoff games.

Jets RB Thomas Jones: He aims for his third consecutive game against Cincinnati with two rushing touchdowns.

Dallas DT Jay Ratliff: He has four sacks in his past five games against Philadelphia and, for the second week, goes against backup center Nick Cole.

Philadelphia CB Asante Samuel: He has seven playoff interceptions, fifth best in NFL history, and four of those pickoffs he returned for touchdowns.

Baltimore S Ed Reed: In five playoff games, he has five interceptions.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

0: Points allowed by Dallas the past two games
3: Philadelphia receivers 24 or younger with 50-plus catches, 750-plus yards and four-plus touchdowns
8: 300-yard games for Tony Romo, a franchise record
8: Touchdowns of 20 or more yards for Miles Austin
18: Sacks allowed by New England this season, a club record
42: Ben Graham punts inside the 20, tying an NFL record
55: Jermichael Finley receptions, one short of the Green Bay record for tight ends
4-0: Philadelphia's wild-card record under Andy Reid
8-0: New England's playoff record when Brady has two or more touchdown passes

Wild-card weekend weather watch

• Cincinnati (Saturday): Snow flurries, high of 22
• Arlington, Texas (Saturday): Sunny, high of 33
• Foxborough, Mass. (Sunday): Partly cloudy, high of 25
• Glendale, Ariz. (Sunday): Sunny, high of 69

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in Dallas to take your rib orders at Tony Romo's.
• I'll be in New England to critique Julian Edelman's Wes Welker impersonation.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Cincinnati because it's home.
•  Mike Freeman will be in Phoenix because he likes it hot.