Rating playoff roadies: Cards, Cowboys key threats
By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow ClarkIn each of the past four years at least two of the visitors in the divisional round of the playoffs have won, and last season three visitors snuck through.
So you have to figure at least one of this weekend's underdogs makes it. The only question is: Which one?
Ah, that's why we're here, people. If you ask me, it's one of the two NFC clubs and maybe both. That's not to say the New York Jets and Baltimore Ravens don't have a shot. It's simply to say they don't have much of one.
Let's go to the chalkboard to see why:
AFC
Baltimore Ravens
What's to like: They can run the ball and play defense. In fact, they ran all over New England, carrying 52 times for 234 yards, and they marginalized the normally unflappable Tom Brady. OK, so Tom Brady was not Tom Brady. He was hurt so badly he threw three interceptions and wouldn't run even when the Ravens gave him the end zone. Nevertheless, a win is a win is a win, and nobody had beaten Brady in the playoffs in Foxborough until the Ravens showed up. If you can run the ball and play defense in this league you can go far in January, and the Ravens have gone far with the run -- averaging 216.2 yards per game their last five starts, four of which they won.
What's not: Quarterback Joe Flacco has a sore hip that he says isn't a factor. But if it's no factor, why throw only 10 times? People close to Flacco tell me he's hurting more than he will admit, and that's a potential obstacle. The guy is tough, resilient and remarkably poised, but I don't know how you play tennis with Peyton Manning if you can't move. One other problem: the Ravens cornerbacks. Domonique Foxworth had his best game of the season against Randy Moss, but New England was minus Wes Welker. So the Ravens double-covered Moss and dared anyone else to beat them. That won't work against Indianapolis, a team that features five receivers with 47 or more receptions each -- including two with 100 apiece -- and a quarterback who, not only is healthy, but just won his fourth league MVP.
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| Coming off an emotional upset in New England, Dwan Edwards and the Ravens face longer odds in Indy. (US Presswire) |
Chance for the upset: Slim. The Colts haven't lost a home game to the Ravens and are rested. Still, there are a couple of things Baltimore can point to: 1) They can keep Manning off the field by running the ball, moving the chains and burning the clock, and 2) the last time Indianapolis rested its starters down the stretch (2005) it lost to a divisional-round opponent (Pittsburgh) it had beaten earlier that season. For those who forgot, Indianapolis squeezed past the Ravens in late November, 17-15.
New York Jets
What's to like: The same as Baltimore. They can run and play defense, only they're better in both departments. The Jets are numero uno when it comes to running the ball, and there is not a defense that is better. Both were factors in last weekend's upset of Cincinnati, with the club running for 171 yards -- including 135 by rookie Shonn Greene -- and cornerback Darrelle Revis shutting down Chad Ochocinco for the second straight week. In two games against Revis, Ochocinco had two catches for 28 yards. Don't say you weren't warned, Vincent Jackson. You're next. Prepare to take the afternoon off.
What's not: A rookie quarterback in a hostile environment. There is no way Mark Sanchez plays as well here as he did against the Bengals. Plus, there are matchup problems for the Jets defense. So you have Revis on Jackson. Who covers Antonio Gates? Malcom Floyd? Darren Sproles? I know teams that can't run aren't supposed to go far, and San Diego ranked 31st in rushing this season. Only Arizona was dead last a year ago, and the Cards were within one minute of winning the Super Bowl.
Numbers worth noting: The Chargers produced at least 20 points in each of their last 22 starts, but the Jets might be the perfect foil. They haven't allowed more than 15 points to any of their last seven opponents and yield an average of 8.7 points per game in that span.
Chance for the upset: Rex Ryan envisions a parade down Fifth Avenue, and he might be right. Only it's Fifth Avenue in the Gaslamp District of San Diego. Maybe the Jets can control the line of scrimmage with their running game, but I don't know how they handle Philip Rivers and an offense that averaged 28.4 points per game. I see Rivers over here and a rookie quarterback over there who, at some point, will have to make a big play. Now, tell me whom you trust more. Yeah, me, too.
NFC
Arizona Cardinals
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| Steve Breaston and Larry Fitzgerald are two of the weapons who make the Cards such a threat to the Saints. (US Presswire) |
What's not: Green Bay wasn't the only team that got torched by the pass. So did Arizona, with Aaron Rodgers shredding the Cards for 422 yards passing and five total touchdowns. Yeah, the Packers have lots of weapons. But so does New Orleans, with five receivers with 45 or more catches apiece. Plus, the Saints have Drew Brees and the home crowd. Alert the civil defense system. Another air raid is imminent.
Numbers worth noting: A year ago the Cardinals were 3-5 on the road but won the divisional playoff game at Carolina, an upset that convinced them they were for real. This year they're 6-2 on the road, losing only to San Francisco and Tennessee, but they dropped two of their last three and held on to win the third ... against Detroit, no less. Nevertheless, this year's Cards are better than last year's team because they can win where last year's team could not -- on the road.
Chance for the upset: Good. New Orleans has been on a downward spiral for awhile, and the Cards are coming off one of their best and most emotional victories ever. This is Ken Whisenhunt's time of the season, with the Cards' head coach 4-0 in the NFC playoffs. But he's not as dangerous as his quarterback and Larry Fitzgerald. It doesn't seem to matter if Anquan Boldin plays or not; Warner and Fitzgerald find each other, with the two combining for nine touchdowns in five playoff games. This could be a repeat of Green Bay-Arizona, and I think I speak for football fans everywhere when I say, "Let's hope so."
Dallas Cowboys
What's to like: Everything. The Cowboys are hot, hot, hot, winning their last four and proving once and for all that, yes, Texas, there is a playoff game that Wade Phillips and Tony Romo can win. The Cowboys have been nothing short of sensational the past three weeks, and I'm not talking only about Romo and a quick-strike offense; I'm talking about a defense that allowed two touchdowns the past three games. Dallas is beginning to believe that this is its year, with Romo emerging as a bona fide leader, the defense shutting down opponents and luck finally beginning to tilt toward Phillips and the men who wear the star.
What's not: Not much, other than the opponent. Minnesota hasn't lost at home, and Brett Favre looks like the quarterback of 10-15 years ago. Of course, that quarterback couldn't beat Dallas, going 0-3 in the playoffs in the 1990s, but there's a difference this time and I'll make it quick: Adrian Peterson. The Vikings can beat you where Philadelphia could not, which is with the run. Add a hot quarterback, and it's a defensive coordinator's nightmare.
Numbers worth noting: Not only hasn't Favre lost at home, he's played his best football there -- with 21 touchdown passes and only two interceptions. OK, so there were close calls against Baltimore and San Francisco. He still won. And the Metrodome was the scene of that last-second miracle against the 49ers. If Favre is comfortable anywhere it is here, and here's more proof: The Vikings averaged 32.75 points per game at home, scoring 30 or more in six of eight starts.
Chance for the upset: Good. Dallas has momentum, a solid rushing game, a hot quarterback and a white-hot defense. The Cowboys also have confidence, believing they can beat anyone at anytime, anywhere, and this is the test case. Minnesota struggled down the stretch, losing three of its last five, but Favre seems to have gotten a second wind. Plus, as I said, he's where he wants to be. One big advantage for Minnesota: The noise. The Metrodome is one of the loudest stadiums on the planet. What Philadelphia experienced a week ago in Dallas, the Cowboys get here.
