Jan. 15, 2010

Peek at the Week: Cowboys' run faces roadblock in Minnesota

By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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Game of the week

Dallas at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET Sunday | Preview

The line: Vikings by 2½

The story: The Cowboys are hot. The Vikings are not. So, naturally, the expectation is that Dallas knocks off another opponent en route to the Super Bowl. I would say about half of that is right. Whoever wins this game is the NFC favorite, but I'm not so sure it's Dallas.

The Cowboys have all kinds of momentum and have won three of their past four games indoors -- including an upset of New Orleans at the Superdome. Their quarterback looks sensational. Their running game is solid. Their defense is a load. There is nothing about these guys that isn't working. Plus, two of their past four wins have come on the road. So they're the popular favorite here, even if they're not the pick of the oddsmakers.

But be careful. Brett Favre and the Vikings don't lose at the Metrodome and Favre has been absolutely lights-out there this season. He has 21 touchdown passes and two interceptions and more important, he's 8-0. Sure, the Vikings had close calls, like San Francisco and Baltimore, but not lately. In their past five home games, they have outscored opponents 172-46.

Nevertheless, Minnesota has a concern, and it's not necessarily Tony Romo. It's cornerback Antoine Winfield. He still has a sore foot, and if he's no better than he was for the Dec. 28 game at Chicago, the Vikings have a dilemma. Do they start him or do they go with Benny Sapp, as they did in the season finale? I saw Joe Flacco tear Sapp apart earlier this season, and, if he starts, I imagine Romo pulls an encore. Anyway, it's a situation worth watching, with the Cowboys ready to pounce.

As far as Dallas is concerned, the key is getting on top early to take the crowd out of the game. The Cowboys did that in New Orleans and felt that experience helped them. Look for them to try to exploit the Vikings secondary as Jay Cutler did. If Cutler can find holes, I guarantee Romo will, too.

On defense, they'll try to pressure Favre as they did Donovan McNabb, only there's a big difference here, and it's not just the offensive tackles: It's Adrian Peterson. The Cowboys must respect him. He's a big back who runs with power and can get to the edge. That combination will slow any pass rush.

Something to consider: Including the playoffs, Romo has a 100-plus passer rating in six of his past seven starts. When Romo hits 100, the Cowboys are 27-5.

The rest of the story

Arizona at New Orleans, 4:30 p.m. ET Saturday | Preview

The line: Saints by 6½

The story: Let's try this again. The Cardinals are hot. The Saints are not. And that is why most expect an upset here.

It's not only that the Saints failed to win any of their final three games; it's that they haven't played a decent game since late November. They should've lost to Washington. They could've lost to Atlanta. Then they had a three-game slide. I don't know how you flip the switch and become that club that won its first 13, but I guess we're about to find out.

What complicates matters for the Saints is this week's opponent. The Cardinals are one of the league's best passing clubs, and guess where New Orleans is most vulnerable? Uh-huh, that's why the score here might approach pinball proportions. The Cards are a quick-strike club, but so are the Saints. And if Aaron Rodgers could shred Arizona for 422 yards and four touchdowns, what do you think Drew Brees could do?

The key here will be turnovers, and that's where Arizona comes up short. The Cards committed 36 this season, more than everyone but Detroit. But they forced three last week against a normally sure-handed Packers team, and maybe that happens again. They can only hope.

If there's one thing the Saints thrive on it is takeaways: They had 39 this season, second only to Green Bay. If they can get to Kurt Warner, they can force the fumble or the interception ... or the retirement. Warner is playing as if each game were his last, and that's not good for New Orleans. A desperate Kurt Warner is a dangerous quarterback.

Something to consider: Warner is averaging 312.3 yards passing per playoff game, the best mark in NFL history (minimum five games). He also has passed for 365 yards six times in the playoffs and has a completion percentage of 66.5, best among quarterbacks with 250 or more attempts.

Baltimore at Indianapolis, 8:15 p.m. ET Saturday (CBS) | Preview

The line: Colts by 6½

The story: Now we find out how wise the Colts were to sit their starters at the end of the regular season. They did it in 2005 and suffered the consequences, losing to a Pittsburgh team they thumped two months earlier. Now they face an opponent they squeezed by in November, thanks to key stops by their defense. But this time Baltimore is energized, and that can happen when you knock off Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in the playoffs.

The Ravens have a brutal rushing attack that features Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le'Ron McClain. Rice is marvelous, accumulating 135 yards the last time these two met. Stop him, and you're halfway home. Of course, you must stop McGahee, too, and lately he has been a factor, too, running for 229 yards and scoring four times in the past two games.

If you bottle up Baltimore's rushing game, you force Joe Flacco to beat you -- and based on what we saw a week ago I don't think he's up to it. It's not that Flacco doesn't have the ability; he has a ton of it. It's that he has a bruised hip that could restrict his movement.

Flacco said it doesn't, and coaches insist he's healthy. In fact, he didn't even appear on this week's injury report. But he threw for 34 yards a week ago, and, yeah, I know the Ravens were destroying New England with the run. But it struck me that a healthy Flacco would have tried more than 10 passes. Anyway, a similar performance will bury him and the Ravens this weekend.

I mention Flacco because he will be called on to throw a lot more than he did a week ago. League MVP Peyton Manning moves the Colts against a pass defense that is vulnerable at the corners. Maybe Brady couldn't exploit the Ravens' weaknesses, but Manning will. That means points, and it means Flacco and the Ravens might get caught in a shootout. They better hope not. They can't win that game.

Something to consider: The Ravens have not allowed a 100-yard rusher in 12 playoff games.

N.Y. Jets at San Diego, 4:40 p.m. ET Sunday (CBS) | Preview | Inside the NFL: Jets D vs. Chargers O

The line: Chargers by 7½

The story: With all the talk about Rex Ryan and the Jets' Super Bowl parade, we conveniently forget that their next opponent is the hottest team in pro football. The Chargers are working on an 11-game winning streak, and their quarterback -- Philip Rivers -- was so good again this season he gained MVP consideration.

I know the Jets are the first team since the 1986 Chicago Bears to lead the league in rushing, scoring defense and total defense. They've had a nice run, and Ryan has the team playing its best football when it matters most -- with the Jets winning six of their past seven. But this is one mountain they'll have trouble climbing.

First, there's Rivers. In each of his previous two divisional playoff games he threw three touchdown passes and had a passer rating of 100 or more. Then there are his weapons. Darrelle Revis will take away Vincent Jackson, but who covers Antonio Gates? And Darren Sproles? And Malcom Floyd? Granted, LaDainian Tomlinson isn't what he once was, but he still managed to score 12 times -- so he's a factor, too. Plus, the Chargers are home, and they have won 10 of their past 11 there.

The Jets must get on top early and hope to hang on with their running game. Otherwise, they're toast. You don't want Mark Sanchez trying to hold serve with Rivers. It can't happen. There's also the crowd noise. You want to minimize it? Then put the Chargers in catch-up mode. If not, get a head start on lip reading.

Something to consider: The Jets allowed a league-low 38 scoring drives and were the only club not to allow a scoring drive of four or fewer plays.

Upset of the week

Arizona (+6½) over New Orleans | Pete's Picks: Divisional games

The story: This is a popular pick, and it's easy to see why. The Saints have been struggling for the past two months. In fact, they haven't played a decent game since destroying New England in a nationally televised game in late November. After nearly losing to the Redskins and Falcons, New Orleans lost its final three games, to the Cowboys, Buccaneers and Panthers.

Forget the Carolina game. The Saints mailed in that one. The others are disturbing, especially the Washington and Tampa Bay games. The Saints should have lost to Washington, but lucked out when Shaun Suisham shanked a 23-yard field goal that would have clinched the victory. The Bucs game was worse, not only because the Saints lost but because they lost at home.

Once upon a time I thought they were bulletproof in the Superdome, but they lost their final two there. Now they meet an opponent that was 6-2 on the road this season and took a big leap forward a year ago by winning a divisional playoff game at Carolina.

Not only that, they meet a team that passes effectively. If Jason Campbell can destroy the Saints pass defense, I'll take my chances with Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald.

Games within the games

Arizona S Antrel Rolle vs. New Orleans QB Drew Brees: Rolle has denied making comments where he allegedly said he would rather face Brees than Aaron Rodgers. I would, too, if I had to face Brees next.

Minnesota DE Jared Allen vs. Dallas LT Flozell Adams: Allen is an edge pass rusher, and Adams has the wide base to ride him to the outside. But if Allen gets to the corner, to the outside of Adams' shoulder, it's trouble for Tony Romo. If, however, Adams can push him inside, Allen is no factor. Gentlemen, start your engines.

Minnesota CB Antoine Winfield vs. Lisfranc injury: Winfield missed six games with the sore foot and hasn't been the same since returning. He was pushed to the nickel spot in the season finale, with Benny Sapp taking his place in the starting lineup, and that might happen again.

N.Y. Jets offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer vs. the team that fired his father: Schottenheimer worked as a quarterbacks coach in San Diego with his father Marty as head coach. Then Marty was fired, and Brian had to find another job. He found a good one. Now he has a chance to make the Chargers remember what they lost.

Dallas S Gerald Sensabaugh vs. Minnesota QB Brett Favre: Both profess to be Nostradamus. Only one can win. Favre said he would be "shocked" if the Vikings didn't advance, which provoked Sensabaugh to fire back that only the Cowboys could beat Dallas. That's why they play the game, guys.

Five guys I'd like to be

Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning: In seven playoff games at home he has 15 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a 101.2 pass rating. Including the postseason, he has 17 touchdowns, seven interceptions and a passer rating of 97.5 vs. Baltimore.

Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald: He aims for his sixth straight playoff game with a touchdown and his fourth in a row with at least two TDs. Fitzgerald has nine touchdowns in five playoff games.

Baltimore S Ed Reed: In six playoff games he has six interceptions, including two the last time Baltimore met the Colts in the playoffs.

New Orleans QB Drew Brees: The last time he faced Arizona he completed 26 of 30 passes for 315 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 132.6.

San Diego WR Vincent Jackson: Eighteen of his 22 playoff receptions have been for first downs

Numbers, numbers, numbers

4: Consecutive road wins for the Jets
15: Straight games Arizona has won when scoring 30 points
25: Baltimore interceptions in 12 playoff games
30.7: Devery Henderson's average yards per catch in the playoffs
6-2: Baltimore's playoff record on the road
8-0: San Diego's record this season when LaDainian Tomlinson scores
9-3: Kurt Warner's postseason record

Weekend weather watch

• New Orleans (Sat.): Dome
• Indianapolis (Sat.): Cloudy, high of 38 (retractable roof)
• Minneapolis (Sun.): Dome
• San Diego (Sun.): Partly cloudy, high of 68

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco will be in New Orleans to run both teams through air-raid drills.
• I'll be in San Diego taking your oatmeal pancake orders at the Encinitas Café.
•  Gregg Doyel will be in Indianapolis, taking your orders at Shapiro's.
•  Mike Freeman will be in Minneapolis to model down jackets.