Jan. 17, 2010

Methodical can beat Ravens, but it can't lead Colts to ultimate glory

By Gregg Doyel | CBSSports.com National Columnist
Follow Gregg

INDIANAPOLIS -- The Indianapolis Colts climbed onto their riding mower Saturday night and chopped Baltimore into little bitty pieces. This 20-3 Colts victory wasn't pretty to watch unless you were a Colts fan, and even then I have to wonder.

This is what the Colts have done all season, of course. They've driven slowly, methodically, over whoever was in their way. It works, but here's the thing about that riding mower: It doesn't go very fast. It can't go very fast. And one of these days -- most likely next weekend in the AFC title game, and if not then, in the Super Bowl -- the Colts are going to play a team that isn't content to simply plod along.

And when that day comes, will the Colts be able to keep up?

Don't look at me like that. I'm not dissing the Colts after a victory as thorough as this one was. The Colts outscored the Ravens by 17 points. They outgained the Ravens by 10 first downs -- 22 to 12 -- and forced four turnovers and even nullified the Ravens' one potentially game-changing play when receiver Pierre Garcon ran down Baltimore safety Ed Reed after a Reed interception and poked the ball loose. The Colts beat Baltimore on Saturday night, and they beat Baltimore badly. No question.

But that's not how the Colts, or their fans, will gauge this season. After Indianapolis won its first 14 games and finished with the NFL's best record in the regular season, the question will not be: Did the Colts win a playoff game? Of course, that won't be the gauge. That's silly. The question will be: Did the Colts win the Super Bowl?

After watching the Colts for the second time in a month, I'm asking it like this:

Can they win the Super Bowl?

And I'd answer it this way: Not the Colts as they played Saturday night.

The Colts couldn't run the ball against the Ravens, just as they've been unable to run the ball all season. They gained a yucky 3.5 yards per carry in 2009, and 3.5 yards per carry Saturday night would have been manna from heaven. As it was, the Colts gained 42 yards on 25 carries. A team can win the Super Bowl like that, but only with a big-play passing attack -- which the Colts do not have. Not Saturday night, and not all season.

Peyton Manning won his fourth MVP in 2009, and he deserved it more than any of his previous three for the simple reason that he has no serious weapons. Receiver Reggie Wayne and tight end Dallas Clark caught 100 passes each, but they averaged just 12.6 and 11.1 yards per reception. If you insist on calling those players "weapons," fine. But specify the weapon. They're pellet guns.

Saturday night was more of the same. Wayne caught eight passes for 63 yards. Clark caught seven for 59 yards. Garcon had five for 34. The Colts' longest play of the game was 20 yards on a pass from Manning to receiver Austin Collie, who had three more catches for 32 more yards.

Weighed down by all those nickels and dimes, the Colts simply couldn't -- and can't -- throw it downfield. Manning tried it twice on the same drive in the third quarter, and Reed intercepted it both times. One pickoff was reversed when Garcon -- a Haitian-American who was playing heartsick and stressed out by the recent earthquake that leveled Haiti -- ran down Reed and forced the fumble. The other pickoff was nullified by a Baltimore penalty. Still, those are bad signs for the Colts. Two long passes, two pickoffs.

Colts coach Jim Caldwell said he saw nothing to worry about with his passing game, but what else was he going to say? He said this:

"The timing was good, but we can always get a little better," he said.

The Colts will need bigger plays from receiver Reggie Wayne if they want to earn another ring. (Getty Images)

Up next is either 13-3 San Diego or the 9-7 New York Jets -- San Diego an absolute heavyweight and the Jets a virtual heavyweight by virtue of two things. They defeated the Colts 29-15 on this same field on Dec. 27 and, if they beat the Chargers on Sunday, they'd be entering the AFC title game on a four-game winning streak against teams that went 47-17 this season. That's heavyweight momentum.

If the Colts survive next weekend, they'd have the Super Bowl to navigate -- and the NFC will be represented by the Saints, Vikings or Cowboys. Those are big boys. Enormous boys.

Comparatively speaking, the Ravens were toddlers on Saturday night. They spit up footballs all over the field, and they dropped passes, and they committed stupid penalties, starting with their first touch of the game, when Jalen Parmele returned a kickoff 64 yards to the Indianapolis 40, only to have it nullified by a penalty that put the ball back at their 7. Quarterback Joe Flacco has regressed in the last five weeks from budding superstar to game manager to drive-killer. The Ravens dissolved down the stretch into a puddle of turnovers, penalties, missed throws and dropped passes.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh said he saw nothing but fight from his team, but what else was he going to say? He said this:

"We kept playing hard. We didn't deflate in the game. We came out and we fought for the rest of the game."

Whatever he says. But the Ravens as they are constituted now can win only if they are able to put the ball into tailback Ray Rice's stomach 25 times -- and after a 17-3 first-half deficit Saturday night, that wasn't happening. Rice carried only 13 times (but still outgained Indianapolis, 67 to 42) while Flacco couldn't do more than badly manage the game.

Philip Rivers of the Chargers isn't merely a game manager. Neither is whichever quarterback awaits -- Drew Brees, Brett Favre or Tony Romo -- in the Super Bowl. Mark Sanchez of the Jets isn't terribly dynamic, but the Jets level the field with cornerback Darrelle Revis, who would most likely take Wayne out of the game.

Two of those teams stand between the Colts and a Super Bowl. To win both of those games -- hell, just to win just one of them -- the Colts will have to find a faster gear than the one they showed Saturday.

I'm not sure that gear exists.