Validation time: 'Not ready' Sanchez on precipice of making history

FLORHAM PARK, N.J. -- Every time I watch Mark Sanchez and the New York Jets upset another opponent, I can't help but think of what Sanchez's college coach, Pete Carroll, said a year ago and wonder how someone so astute could have been so wrong.

It was Carroll who discouraged Sanchez from going pro, saying quarterbacks who leave college early for the pros generally don't succeed. He had the numbers to prove it, too, pointing out that 62 percent of quarterbacks who leave as underclassmen don't pan out.

Mark Sanchez threw 34 TDs in his final year at USC, but it wasn't enough to convince Pete Carroll. (US Presswire)

"The facts are strong against his decision," Carroll said.

Maybe. Only the facts are strong in favor of it now.

Sanchez is one win away from becoming the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl. More than that, in one NFL season, he's experienced more success than his predecessors at USC -- Carson Palmer and Matt Leinart -- have in their pro careers. Palmer hasn't won a playoff game, and Leinart hasn't even started one.

Sanchez? He's 2-0 in the playoffs and this close to making history.

"It's very interesting," said wide receiver Braylon Edwards, "because now here he is in the AFC Championship Game, which is something that neither one of those other two have done in their careers yet. I'm happy for him, and I just hope he continues to get better. I just hope he continues to be the quarterback Pete Carroll helped him become."

That will take time. In Sanchez’s last game at USC he threw for 413 yards and four touchdowns. In his best game with the Jets he threw for 265 yards and two TDs. He never threw for more than two touchdowns in any start and did that only twice, while four times he had three or more interceptions -- including a five-spot against Buffalo.

But that's what rookie quarterbacks do. What they don't do is steer their teams to conference championship games. So Joe Flacco and Ben Roethlisberger did it, they're the exceptions. Peyton and Eli Manning are more the rule, with Peyton 3-13 his rookie year and Eli 1-6.

What stands out about Sanchez is not that his numbers went up as the year progressed, but that his interceptions went down -- evidence that he was following orders to be careful with the football and make plays only when they were there.

"I think [offensive coordinator] Brian Shottenheimer and Mark have gotten more on the same page," Edwards said. "I feel like they've gotten to know each other more. Coach Schottenheimer, maybe because of the past and the way [Sanchez] plays, knows Mark needs certain plays early to get him going. And Mark understands what 'Schotty' expects of him to be a better quarterback in this league.

"His confidence level hasn't increased. It's just his comfort level. He's always had his confidence, as any good player will. But that comfort level has gotten better. And when that gets stronger you're able to manage the game better, make plays and keep the ball out of opponents' hands."

All three were on display in last weekend's defeat of San Diego. For the most part, Sanchez managed an offense that became more effective as the game wore on and the Chargers wore down. While the Jets did nothing the first four times they had the ball, they scored on three of their first five second-half possessions and killed the clock -- and the Chargers -- with a five-play series at the end.

Unlike opposing quarterback Philip Rivers, Sanchez didn't make a fatal mistake, and, when he had to make a play, he did. Rewind the tape of the Jets' first touchdown, and you'll see Sanchez buy time by rolling to his right, patiently wait on receivers, then finding tight end Dustin Keller in the back of the end zone.

"I've been around young quarterbacks, and it takes some time," Edwards said. "But once they figure it out, they definitely get better at a rapid pace. But it's only once they figure it out."

Sanchez doesn't have it figured out. Not by a long shot. But he's getting there, and having him start a conference championship game in his first year is not just a start -- it's more like a leap.

"I do feel more comfortable as the days go on, as you get more experience each game," Sanchez said. "There's no substitute for that experience. The biggest thing that has made the difference in these last few games has been knowing what it takes to win but also knowing what gets you beat. And turnovers have gotten us beat.

"If that means making better decisions or not throwing the ball or taking a sack, that's what we've got to go with. It's worked to this point, and, hopefully, in the future I'll be able to take more chances and really get a feel for things. But, right now, it's better to be smart than good."

Once he was dubbed "The San-chise." Later, when interceptions started to accumulate, he became "Broadway Schmo." The truth is that Sanchez is somewhere in between, and that's not all that bad for a guy who wasn't supposed to make it.

A week ago, a San Diego reporter playfully asked Sanchez if he thought Carroll could make it in his return to the NFL, and the quarterback laughed. He didn't have to respond, his presence in the playoffs says it all.

Sanchez didn't sacrifice millions of dollars by leaving USC and he didn't sacrifice a career, either. He did what he what he thought -- no, what he knew -- was best, and lucky for the New York Jets. I don't know if they'd be where they are without him, but I know they -- and he -- are better for the experience.

So Carroll lost a good quarterback, and good quarterbacks are hard to find, ones who win are harder. Maybe the facts were against Sanchez's decision to turn pro, but Carroll should have been looking at the player instead of a spread sheet.

Then again, maybe he was.

"When you look at guys coming out in the draft, you can just tell when someone has it," Jets wide receiver Jerricho Cotchery said. "You can look at a guy and say, 'Hey, he's going to be successful.' You can look at a DeSean Jackson and see he's got it. You can have all these questions about character and all those things, but he has it.

"You have the same feel for Mark. When you looked at him on film you could see it. Obviously, coaches wanted to keep him in college so they said he needed a little more experience, but you could tell that if you got him with the right coaching staff he was going to be OK. You could see it on film. You can see a guy looking the safety off and coming back and hitting another receiver. You can see that, and you can see what type of player he's going to be."

Carroll saw it -- he just didn't want to admit it. It's time to admit Sanchez knew what he was doing and made the right move.