Jan. 22, 2010

Peek at the Week: Favre aims for more dome success in Big Easy

By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer
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Game of the week

Minnesota at New Orleans, 6:40 p.m. ET | Favre

The line: Saints by 3½

The story: For the second time in three seasons, Brett Favre is one game away from the Super Bowl. In 2008 he fizzled, but that happened in the sub-zero temperatures of Lambeau Field. Now he's in the comfort of the climate-controlled Superdome, and considering Favre's success at home in the Metrodome (25 touchdown passes, two interceptions, no losses), that is nothing but a plus for the guy.

Only there are a couple of things to remember: 1) The Superdome will be raucous, with the Vikings wearing earplugs for the game; and 2) Favre's opponent, Drew Brees, is almost as bulletproof at home as No. 4. The envelope please: Though he has two defeats, he has 23 touchdowns and four interceptions and tore apart Arizona last weekend. OK, there is a third: Favre and the Vikings are 4-4 on the road this season, 9-0 at home. If they're vulnerable, it's in places like this.

Favre is 14-1 in domes the past three seasons (including Arizona, where he lost with the roof closed) and 3-1 in his career in the Superdome, so there's no reason to think he won't produce his A Game here. In the past 10 quarters he has 10 touchdown passes and no interceptions, and that includes his four-TD effort against Dallas when he stood up to the Dallas pass rush.

The feeling, of course, is that if you bring the heat, Favre will wilt, but I didn't see it last weekend. The Saints' best defense for Favre and the Vikings is Brees and their offense. Stay on the field, and you keep Favre off it. Go ahead early, and you might turn the Vikings into a desperate, come-from-behind, one-dimensional unit. That means forcing turnovers, and we all saw what happened to Arizona.

The Cardinals are a turnover machine. The Vikings are not. In fact, they had half as many (18) as Arizona (36) this season, with Favre throwing for a career-low seven interceptions. The Saints thrive on takeaways, but they might not find them here. I know, Adrian Peterson has trouble with fumbles, but my guess is that Minnesota's fortunes rest more with Favre than they do with Peterson.

Favre's only Super Bowl win was in this building, but that was 13 years ago. Only he looks like the Brett Favre of 13 years ago. Correction: He looks better.

Brees is no slouch, either, and the problem for Minnesota will be getting to him the way they got to Tony Romo. The Dallas quarterback had virtually no pass protection, and that should change here. First of all, I don't know how seriously Ray Edwards and Kevin Williams are hurt; second, I trust Jermon Bushrod vs. Jared Allen. Third, the prospect of beating a furious pass rush with swing passes to Reggie Bush can serve as a speed bump.

If the Vikings can't squeeze Brees, they're dead. I don't trust Benny Sapp to hold up as he did a week ago, basically because I saw lesser quarterbacks than Brees savage the guy. If Minnesota can ... and if it can avoid the critical mistakes ... we're talking about Favre starting a Super Bowl at 40. I know a lot of forty-somethings who would like to see it happen.

Something to consider: The last time these two met was last year, and while the Vikings won they also allowed Bush to return two punts for touchdowns. Don't say you weren't warned.

The rest of the story

N.Y. Jets vs. Indianapolis, 3 p.m. ET (CBS) | Rex Ryan | Colts get ready

The line: Colts by 7½

The story: The Colts let the Jets into the playoffs. So how ironic would it be if the Jets pushed them out? Let's be honest here: The Jets wouldn't be here without a lot of help from their friends, and I'm talking about Jim Caldwell and Bill Polian. The Jets don't have to apologize; they just have to take advantage, and they have -- upsetting Cincinnati and San Diego in successive weekends on the road.

Naturally, anything is possible here because the Jets seem, well, destined, fated, charmed ... provide your own adjective, I don't care. I mean, how many playoff teams have opposing kickers miss all five field goals? I know of one. And how many stop an 11-game win streak by opening with four series that produce no first downs? I know of one there, too.

Maybe that makes the Jets lucky, but it also makes them confident and loose. Few people outside the greater New York area expect the upset, so the Jets go in with nothing to lose.

The problem, of course, is that they're playing an opponent that, unlike San Diego last weekend, is not prone to fatal mistakes. Peyton Manning rarely gets sacked (10 all season) and rarely throws bad interceptions. But these are the playoffs, and Manning is vulnerable there -- with an 8-8 record, 24 touchdowns and 18 interceptions. The law of averages says he will throw one Sunday, and the Jets can only hope: They turned a Philip Rivers mistake into the go-ahead touchdown last week.

And that's where the luck bows out and good old-fashioned football takes over. The Jets aren't a mystery. Their offense is what Rex Ryan dubs "ground and pound," meaning Thomas Jones, Shonn Greene and an occasional glimpse of the quarterback, and their defense is the best in the business. Of course, so is the running game, and, as Ryan said the other day, if you're able to run the ball and stuff opponents you can be a championship team. And the Jets could, provided they jump to a lead, force Manning into mistakes and force the Colts to take field goals instead of touchdowns.

It's a tall order. The Colts rarely fall behind, and even when they do they have the quick-strike offense to catch up in a hurry. They were down by 17 in Houston this season and wound up winning by seven. Moreover, Manning led the Colts to seven fourth-quarter comeback wins, an NFL record since the 1970 merger.

The Texans aren't Gang Green on defense, but then again the Jets don't have Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson on offense, either. Nope, they better hope the score stays down here, and it could: None of their past eight opponents have scored more than 15 points -- with the Jets beating seven of them.

The Jets have convinced themselves they're OK because they tell themselves they played the Colts virtually even before Manning was pulled in late December. That's not exactly true. While the score was 15-10 when he left, seven of the Jets' points were via a kickoff return. That makes it 15-3 and you could see that again.

The Jets are effective running, but so was Baltimore -- and Indianapolis stuffed the Ravens twice. The Colts' defense forced Joe Flacco to make plays, and he couldn't. Look for the same formula here, and good luck Mark Sanchez. No rookie quarterback has ever started a Super Bowl.

Something to consider: During the final two minutes of the first and second halves this season, Manning was 41 of 62 for 491 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions, with a passer rating of 102.3.

Games within the games

N.Y. Jets CB Darrelle Revis vs. Indianapolis WR Reggie Wayne: The last time they met Wayne had three catches for 33 yards and no touchdowns. Typical. Nobody makes big catches ... or many catches ... against the best cornerback in the league. Revis, who has interceptions in his two playoff games, moved all over the field against San Diego and that might happen again here. But I don't think so. This should be mano-a-mano for four quarters, and here's the challenge: Wayne has touchdown catches in his past four playoff games.

N.Y. Jets LT D'Brickashaw Ferguson vs. Indianapolis DE Dwight Freeney: Freeney is a speed pass rusher who is most effective on turf, and he has four sacks in four career games vs. the Jets. Ferguson just got named to his first Pro Bowl. "It's going to be one heckuva battle," right tackle Damien Woody said.

New York coach Rex Ryan vs. Indianapolis coach Jim Caldwell: At least one rookie will make it to the Super Bowl, and you're looking at him. Take your pick.

New Orleans S Darren Sharper vs. his ex-teammates: The Vikings didn't want their starting safety back, so he wound up in New Orleans, where he tied for the league lead in interceptions and was named to the Pro Bowl. Think he's motivated? Tune in Sunday.

New Orleans T Jermon Bushrod vs. Minnesota DE Jared Allen: Bushrod protects Brees' back, and if the quarterback is going to be successful you better keep Allen off of him. The Vikings led the league with 48 sacks and dumped Romo six times last weekend. Bushrod has been terrific this season, blanking John Abraham twice, and he must be nothing less than terrific Sunday ... or else duck, Drew.

Five guys I'd like to be

Jets QB Mark Sanchez: He can't lose. If he wins he becomes the first rookie quarterback to start a Super Bowl; if he loses, he gets to shave. I call that a win-win.

Jets RB Thomas Jones: He has five touchdowns in his past five playoff games.

Indianapolis RB Joseph Addai: He aims for his third consecutive game vs. the Jets with a TD.

Minnesota DE Jared Allen: He has three sacks and two forced fumbles in his past two playoff games.

New Orleans RB Reggie Bush: He has 333 yards from scrimmage in three playoff games, scored in all three and produced two punt returns for TDs against Minnesota at the Superdome last year.

Numbers, numbers, numbers

1: 300-yard passing game for Manning to pass Joe Montana and Kurt Warner for most in playoff history
5: Consecutive Jets road wins
7-0: Jets' record when Darrelle Revis has an interception
19: Straight playoff games with a Brett Favre touchdown pass
19: Different Saints who scored touchdowns this year
24.6: Yards per catch in the playoffs for the Saints' Devery Henderson
52-26: Record of home teams in conference championship games since 1970

Sunday weather watch

• Indianapolis: Few showers, high of 45 (retractable roof)
• New Orleans: Dome

Where we will be

•  Pete Prisco and Mike Freeman will be in New Orleans to make sure Darren Sharper's coffee is de-caf only.
•  Gregg Doyel and I will be in Indianapolis to take your Sunday breakfast orders at Shapiro's.