Prime time for Peppers? Pass rusher at 30 crossroads

General managers and their personnel people will go into their meeting rooms in the next two weeks to dissect Carolina Panthers defensive end Julius Peppers, who could be the rare Pro Bowl pass rusher to hit the free-agent market.

The Panthers haven't yet decided what they will do with Peppers, but all indications are he might become an unrestricted free agent. That has some out there salivating at the idea of a premier pass rusher hitting the market at just the right time.

Julius Peppers has often shown he can be dominant 'when he wants to.' (US Presswire)

But is it really the right time? The personnel people will see all kinds of impressive numbers when they do the work up on Peppers, his 6-foot-7, 285-pound frame as eye-opening as any rusher in the game. They will also see he has had double-digit sacks in six of his eight seasons, including 10½ last season.

Then they will come to the most important number of them all.

Age.

Peppers, you see, is 30.

That's not old for you or me. But, as strange as it sounds, it is for a defensive end in the NFL.

"That is a concern for pass rushers," one NFC personnel director said. "That's an issue with Peppers."

In a league where pass rushers have an even bigger value than years ago because of the move toward more wide-open passing games, it's buyer-beware when it comes to rushers 30 or older. You want data?

In the 10 seasons from 1999 to 2008, there were 17 men who finished a season ranked in the top 10 in sacks in a season in which they started it 30 or older. Of those 17, only four repeated a top-10 sack season, one of those coming last season when Pittsburgh's James Harrison had 10 sacks after getting 16 at the age of 30 in 2008.

The other three to accomplish the feat in the past decade were Michael Strahan, Simeon Rice and Jason Taylor. But even they weren't the same after 30. Strahan had 22½ sacks to lead the league in 2002, a league record, in the year he turned 30. In the six years after that, he averaged 9½ sacks. But in the final four years of his career he averaged 6.9 sacks a season.

Rice had 12 sacks for Tampa Bay in 2004 to place fifth in the league in the year he turned 30. He had 14 in 2005, but then dropped to two, none and one the next three seasons before he was out of the league.

Taylor had 12 sacks in 2005 at the age of 31 for the Miami Dolphins to place him fifth in the league. He followed that up with 13½ and 11. But in the past two seasons, it has been three and 7½.

The falloff for the others is astonishing. Since Carolina Panthers linebacker Kevin Greene retired after he had 12 sacks in 1999, we'll exclude him from the breakdown. The other 12 men averaged 13.8 sacks in the seasons they finished in the top 10 at the age of 30 or older. The following year after that those 12 men averaged five sacks.

That's a big reason Peppers is so risky. He just turned 30 last month, but 30 is 30.

"When you hit that number," said an AFC personnel director, "you have to factor it because of the history. Guys don't get better when they get older, especially at that position."

The Panthers offered to make Peppers the highest-paid defensive player before the 2008 season, even though he had 2½ sacks in 2007 and his leverage was low. He turned them down.

He then wanted a new deal before the 2009 season after getting 14½ sacks in 2008, but the two sides couldn't agree on a deal, the Panthers placed the franchise tag on him. That meant he played for $1 million a game in 2009. He had 10½ sacks, which sounds like a nice number until you consider he had seven games without a sack.

Now Peppers wants to be paid. Who wouldn't? But with uncertainty of the labor situation, coupled with the fact that Carolina owner Jerry Richardson is said to be one of the owners leading the fiscal responsibility brigade, it's hard to imagine the Panthers giving him a long-term deal that placates him and his agent.

The Panthers could put the franchise tag on Peppers, but that would mean he would be paid $20 million next season. They could also put that tag on him and trade him. The problem with that is the team doing the trading also has to pay him. That's a lot tougher to swallow than just paying for a player, which makes it harder to get a deal done. The Panthers have until Feb. 24 to decide whether to put the tag on him.

There there's the "when he wants to" part of Peppers' game. In talking to a handful of scouts, coaches and personnel men from around the league, they all had pretty much the same thinking about Peppers.

He's damn good when he wants to be. He takes plays and games off, they say.

The Panthers have been quiet on the Peppers front. General manager Marty Hurney doesn't do his negotiating in the media, so this is no surprise. Quiet is usually the Peppers way since he's one of the recluses of the league. But he took to the Charlotte radio airwaves recently to state his case and said he no longer wants a long-term contract from the Panthers anymore.

"I'm a man of very few words," Peppers said. "I understand very well what silence means. For a person being silent to me, I understand exactly what you're trying to say."

Maybe the Panthers are trying to say what the data says without insulting him, which is that 30-year-old pass rushers are a risk, even one who has been to the Pro Bowl six times in his career.