AFC East preview: Pats still too much for trendy Jets
By Pete Prisco | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow PeteThe New York Jets are trendier than those Jersey Shore reality-show kids.
All summer long, all we've heard is how good they are, watching the brash, bold team, led by loud, fun-loving coach Rex Ryan, on HBO's Hard Knocks. While that show taught us that Ryan has a mouth that would make a longshoreman blush, it also contained a scene that would worry me if I were a Jets fan.
During one of the shows, Jets quarterback Mark Sanchez was being criticized by quarterbacks coach Matt Cavanaugh. As Cavanaugh spoke, using Ryan's trademark nasty mouth, Sanchez seemed to be annoyed. He fiddled with something the entire time, rarely looking up to look at Cavanaugh.
That's not what you want to see from a passer on a team most have pegged for a Super Bowl run.
Sanchez is why I don't think the Jets will even win the division. Want to take it one step further? They won't even make the playoffs.
Sanchez is the perfect example of a quarterback being rushed to greatness. Look at his numbers from last season. Sanchez threw 12 touchdown passes and 20 interceptions and had a passer rating of 63.0. Those are hardly eye-opening numbers.
Then there's the perception he was fantastic when the Jets made their Super run, getting to the AFC Championship Game.
The reality is he was just OK. In three playoff games, he didn't hit 200 yards passing in two of those games. His completion percentage was under 60 percent in two of them. He did throw four touchdown passes in the three games and he played well in the loss to the Colts in the AFC Championship Game, but by no means has he arrived. He will get there in a year or so, but not now.
That's why the Patriots are the pick in the AFC East. I'll take Bill Belichick and Tom Brady over both combos of Ryan and Sanchez and Tony Sparano and Chad Henne of the Dolphins.
This is a coach/quarterback league. New England still has the top duo, which is why I will pick them to win the division.
The Jets and Dolphins will push for a wild-card spot. Their year will come in 2011, when their quarterbacks grow up.
So ease up on the Jets-to-the-Super-Bowl talk.
That's a year away, no matter how trendy they are.
Significant additions: TE Alge Crumpler, DL Gerard Warren, CB Devin McCourty, LB Brandon Spikes, TE Rob Gronkowski and TE Aaron Hernandez.
Significant losses: DE Jarvis Green, OLB Adalius Thomas and TE Ben Watson.
| Predicted Order of Finish | |
| 1 Patriots | 2009: 10-6 (1st AFC East) |
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Pts. Scored: 427 (6th overall) Pts. Allowed: 285 (5th overall) Off. Yds/G: 397.3 (3rd overall) Def. Yds/G: 320.2 (11th overall) |
| 2 Jets | 2009: 9-7 (2nd AFC East) |
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Pts. Scored: 348 (17th overall) Pts. Allowed: 236 (1st overall) Off. Yds/G: 321.0 (20th overall) Def. Yds/G: 252.3 (1st overall) |
| 3 Dolphins | 2009: 7-9 (3rd AFC East) |
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Pts. Scored: 360 (15th overall) Pts. Allowed: 390 (25th overall) Off. Yds/G: 337.6 (17th overall) Def. Yds/G: 349.3 (22nd overall) |
| 4 Bills | 2009: 6-10 (4th AFC East) |
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Pts. Scored: 258 (28th overall) Pts. Allowed: 326 (16th overall) Off. Yds/G: 273.9 (30th overall) Def. Yds/G: 340.6 (19th overall) |
Biggest offseason move: It's a move they haven't made. They still haven't come to a contract agreement with Tom Brady, which could become a distraction as the season moves along.
Will go to the playoffs if ... Brady stays upright. As long as he's slinging it, they are the team to beat. They also need to get more from the pass rush.
Rookie to watch: Spikes was a second-round pick in large part because he didn't run that well in his workouts. But he's impressed on the inside in the Patriots scheme. He might be a rookie starter.
Overview: Yes, they have some defensive issues, especially in terms of the pass rush. But Belichick is one of the great defensive minds. He will find a way to scheme around that. The offense will be sensational. Brady is another year removed from his knee injury and he has a slew of weapons on the outside, including rookie tight ends Gronkowski and Hernandez, two pass-catchers who will play a lot in their first season. He also has Randy Moss, and Wes Welker is back from injury. Early on, the Patriots will have to put up a lot of points as the defense grows together. By the end of the season, when the young players on defense have worked things out, the Patriots will really shine.
Significant additions: CB Antonio Cromartie, WR Santonio Holmes, RB LaDainian Tomlinson, OLB Jason Taylor, K Nick Folk, S Brodney Pool, G Vladimir Ducasse and CB Kyle Wilson.
Significant losses: RB Thomas Jones, RB Leon Washington, S Kerry Rhodes, CB Lito Sheppard and G Alan Faneca.
Biggest offseason move: Trading to get Cromartie. He will team with Darrelle Revis, if he shows up, to form a nice pair of cover corners. He does have to tone down his freelancing some.
Will go to the playoffs if ... They don't get caught up in their lofty expectations and Sanchez can continue to develop.
Rookie to watch: Wilson. With Revis holding out, Wilson is starting opposite Cromartie. Wilson has the tools to be an effective cover player, but they'd prefer him be the nickel in his first season.
Overview: This is a team that most are picking to win the division. I see a step back in 2010. They just don't throw the ball well enough to win the entire thing. They might be the team to beat in this division next year, but I think there will be some disappointment this season. Sanchez hasn't wowed anybody in the preseason, which has to be a concern. The defense will be dominant again, especially if Revis returns. But they ran it over 600 times last season. Teams that play that formula usually have a drop-off the next season. See: 2008-2009 Titans. That's what happens here with the Jets. As good as they are on defense and running the ball, this is a passing league. It's all on Sanchez.
Significant additions: WR Brandon Marshall, ILB Karlos Dansby, OLB Koa Misi, DE Jared Odrick, DE Charles Grant, ILB Tim Dobbins and G Richie Incognito.
Significant losses: WR Ted Ginn Jr., OLB Joey Porter, OLB Jason Taylor and S Gibril Wilson.
Biggest offseason move: Trading for Marshall. They lacked a go-to receiver for young quarterback Chad Henne, so they acquired Marshall. He is a big-time player who can really help this offense.
Will go to the playoffs if ... Henne is what they think he can be. He has all the tools, but now that he's the full-time starter heading into a season, it will be a lot tougher on him.
Rookie to watch: Misi. He is making the move from college end to outside rusher, but he has a chance to be a contributor early. He has been penciled in as the starter from the open of camp.
Overview: The Dolphins are building something special in South Florida. But I think this is another team that is a year away. They will push for a wild-card spot this season. Henne is poised to make big steps, especially with Marshall around, but I just think he needs one more year under his belt before he can be counted on to take this team to a Super Bowl. The defense has questions in two young edge rushers, which is why it may struggle early before getting better as the season moves along. I like what they're building, just not this season.
Significant additions: RB C.J. Spiller, WR Chad Jackson, DE Dwan Edwards and DT Torell Troup.
Significant losses: T Brad Butler, G Richie Incognito, WR Terrell Owens, T Jon Scott and WR Josh Reed.
Biggest offseason move: Hiring Chan Gailey as head coach. Gailey knows offense, but does he have enough to work with in Buffalo?
Will go to the playoffs if ... Trent Edwards becomes Jim Kelly. Not happening.
Rookie to watch: Spiller. He is an explosive back who will help the return game as much as he does the offense.
Overview: They might be picking first next spring. But that wouldn't be a bad thing. At least they'd get the quarterback they so badly need. The quarterback draft will be deep in 2010. This year will be a long season for Gailey. They just don't have enough talent to compete on a week in and week out basis. The offense is limited. Gailey will get them playing hard, and he can scheme things up on offense, but they just don't have the triggerman to make it all work. The defense has some playmakers, but not enough of them.
