NFC North preview: Rodgers difference for Pack
By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow ClarkThe NFC North doesn't just have two of the best teams in the NFC; it has two of the best teams in pro football. Take your pick -- Green Bay or Minnesota -- but one of them wins this division, and the other goes to the playoffs as a wild card.
A year ago, the Vikings were the most balanced team in the game, but they missed the Super Bowl because they couldn't hold on to the football against New Orleans. That was then, and this is now, and now the question is: Can they hold off Green Bay?
I have my doubts, and not just because Brett Favre is a year older, Sidney Rice is out half the season and Percy Harvin's migraines are still an issue. Nope, I say the Packers get there because they're simply better.
It's a close call, with Minnesota locked and loaded for another run at the Lombardi Trophy. But I guess I lean ever so slightly toward the Packers because I can't imagine Favre reproducing the numbers he put up last season, while I can see it happening with Aaron Rodgers.
All I know is the division goes to one of two teams, with the quarterbacks making the final call. This time, I'll take Rodgers.
Significant offseason additions: DB Charlie Peprah
Significant offseason losses: DE/LB Aaron Kampman, RB Ahman Green, DE Michael Montgomery, P Jeremy Kapinos.
Biggest offseason move: Solidifying the offensive line with the draft of tackle Bryan Bulaga. The Packers' offensive line has always been an issue, and the club must -- absolutely must -- protect Rodgers. So it returns Chad Clifton and Mark Tauscher at tackles and adds insurance with Bulaga, who, for the moment, serves as an understudy. Bulaga said he's disappointed, and he should be. But the Packers shouldn't be. They have quality depth at a key position where they once were short.
Will make the playoffs if ... Aaron Rodgers is as good as he looks now. And last year. And the season before. Let's face it, Rodgers is one of the top quarterbacks in the game, and the Packers not only ride him to the playoffs; they ride him deep into the playoffs.
Rookie to watch: Safety Morgan Burnett. With Atari Bigby on PUP, the Packers need someone to step in and fill a hole at strong safety. Burnett is that man. The third-round draft pick started opposite Nick Collins for every practice since April 30 and should be the starter when the Packers play Philadelphia in the season opener. While he's not the hard-hitting tackler that Bigby is, he has size and range that should minimize the dangers of starting a rookie.
Overview: When the Packers finished the 2009 regular season I thought they were ready for takeoff. Apparently, their pass defense didn't get the memo. Or maybe it did and misinterpreted "takeoff." Anyway, it failed to show up for an overtime loss to Arizona in the playoffs, with Kurt Warner gashing the Packers for 379 yards and five touchdowns. Green Bay was loaded then, and it's loaded again. Brett Favre kept the Packers from winning the division last season, but he won't do it again. This team has too many weapons on both sides of the ball, and when Al Harris and Bigby return, they should have enough defensive backs to hold off Minnesota.
Significant offseason additions: DE Michael Montgomery, CB Lito Sheppard, WR Javon Walker, WR Greg Camarillo.
| Predicted Order of Finish | |
| 1 Packers | 2009: 11-5 (2nd NFC North) |
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Pts. Scored: 461 (3rd overall) Pts. Allowed: 297 (7th overall) Off. Yds/G: 379.1 (6th overall) Def. Yds/G: 284.4 (2nd overall) |
| 2 Vikings | 2009: 12-4 (1st NFC North) |
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Pts. Scored: 470 (2nd overall) Pts. Allowed: 312 (10th overall) Off. Yds/G: 379.6 (5th overall) Def. Yds/G: 305.5 (6th overall) |
| 3 Bears | 2009: 7-9 (3rd NFC North) |
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Pts. Scored: 327 (19th overall) Pts. Allowed: 375 (21st overall) Off. Yds/G: 310.3 (23rd overall) Def. Yds/G: 337.8 (17th overall) |
| 4 Lions | 2009: 2-14 (4th NFC North) |
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Pts. Scored: 262 (27th overall) Pts. Allowed: 494 (32nd overall) Off. Yds/G: 299.0 (26th overall) Def. Yds/G: 392.1 (32nd overall) |
Significant offseason losses: RB Chester Taylor, OL Artis Hicks, CB Karl Paymah, CB Benny Sapp.
Biggest offseason move: Convincing Favre to return. OK, so maybe he didn't need much convincing. He just needed to have the Vikings break camp at Mankato. Anyway, with Favre this is a top three or four club; without him they're no better than a wild-card entry. No, I don't think he puts up the numbers he did last season. How could he at 41? But, yes, I think he puts the Vikes in the thick of the playoff picture again.
Will go to the playoffs if ... Favre stays healthy, and given his record of consecutive starts I'd say that happens. Even if he doesn't -- I mean, even if he's sidelined by a sore ankle -- they could make it as a wild-card entry with Tarvaris Jackson. It happened once. It could happen again. Minnesota and Green Bay not only are the two best teams in this division; they're two of the three best teams in the NFC.
Rookie to watch: Cornerback Chris Cook. OK, so he's hurt and will miss a couple of weeks. But he made a zillion plays in training camp and will come in handy if Cedric Griffin isn't ready to return from his knee injury. For the moment, Lito Sheppard is the starter, with Asher Allen the backup. But the Vikings are so comfortable with Cook they dealt away Benny Sapp, who started for the injured Antoine Winfield last season. That tells me someone thinks he can play.
Overview: The Vikings were the most complete team last season, and they could be again -- provided Favre puts up similar numbers. But I don't see that happening, and I don't think I'm alone. But he doesn't have to carry this team, not with Adrian Peterson in the lineup. The loss of Rice will hurt, but as long as Bernard Berrian, Percy Harvin and Visanthe Shiancoe are in the lineup Favre won't hurt for targets. Hey, maybe he even reconnects with Javon Walker. Bottom line: It's Green Bay and Minnesota in a photo finish for the division title.
Significant offseason additions: DE Julius Peppers, RB Chester Taylor, S Chris Harris, TE Brandon Manumaleuna, CB Tim Jennings.
Significant offseason losses: T Orlando Pace, CB Nathan Vasher, DE Alex Brown, DT Dusty Dvoracek, DE Adewale Ogunleye, LB Jamar Williams, S Kevin Payne.
Biggest offseason move: Hiring Mike Martz to coach Jay Cutler. Martz is the guy who created "The Greatest Show on Turf," and he could be the guy who makes Jay Cutler into a productive, winning QB ... only I don't think so. "They're too much alike," one NFC coach said. "It will never work." Maybe. Maybe not. All I know is that the Bears are must-see TV. Martz runs a high-risk, high-octane offense that either takes Cutler to career-best performances or makes him the next candidate for injured reserve. After watching the Bears' offensive line this summer, I think we're closer to Door No. 2.
Will go to the playoffs if ... Green Bay and Minnesota forfeit their seasons.
Rookie to watch: Safety Major Wright. Until he was hurt in the preseason opener he was pushing for a starting spot. Now, the Bears await his return when, in all likelihood, he serves as a backup safety learning on the fly. The Bears need him. In fact, they need all the help they can find for the secondary. When you play in a division with Brett Favre and Aaron Rodgers you never have enough defensive backs.
Overview: Coach Lovie Smith is in trouble, with another season putting him out of work. The Bears need to win and win now, but tell me how that happens in a division with the Vikings and Packers. It doesn't. In fact, I think Chicago is much closer to fourth than it is second.
Significant offseason additions: WR Nate Burleson, TE Tony Scheffler, QB Shaun Hill, DE Kyle Vanden Bosch, DT Corey Williams, G Rob Sims, CB Chris Houston, S C.C. Brown.
Significant offseason losses: LB Ernie Sims, QB Daunte Culpepper, DT Grady Jackson, CB Phillip Buchanon, CB Will James, CB Anthony Henry, LB Larry Foote, TE Casey FitzSimmons, S Daniel Bullocks, S Marquand Manuel.
Biggest offseason move: Taking defensive tackle and AP College Player of the Year Ndamukong Suh with the second draft pick. Suh is a dominant interior lineman, and I call Jake Delhomme to the witness stand. Watch the replays of last weekend's hit and tell me this guy isn't a human wrecking ball. He can penetrate the pocket, he can occupy two blockers and he can solidify the middle of a defense ... which is exactly what the Lions need.
Will go to the playoffs if ... See Chicago.
Rookie to watch: Running back Jahvid Best. The Lions traded up to acquire him at the bottom of the first round, and now I understand why. He is fast. He is quick. He makes people miss. He can catch. And he can make this team more dangerous. The Lions didn't have breakaway runners last season, with only four runs of 20 or more yards -- including two by quarterbacks. Well, now they do.
Overview: I like what I see happening here. The Lions are doing some serious rebuilding, and while it takes time to dig out of the Matt Millen debris, they're also collecting potential impact players. Vanden Bosch will help on the field and in the locker room. Best gives them a long-distance threat. Burleson can take some of the heat off Calvin Johnson. In short, this team is built to score, which is good considering its defense ranked last in yards and points last season. Tennis, anyone?
