NFC West preview: Niners get shot to be beast of least
By Clark Judge | CBSSports.com Senior Writer Follow ClarkThe NFC West is the league's weakest division, and that's not an assessment of its current talent. It's an assessment of its history. Over the last six years, there been only six teams in this division with winning records -- or one per year -- and, yep, you guessed it, they were the division champions.
Everyone else was either .500 or below.
That may happen again, with San Francisco the logical choice to succeed Arizona as division champion -- but I don't say that with a lot of confidence. The 49ers haven't had a winning season since 2002, and while this should be the year that changes this is also a division that anyone but St. Louis can win.
Nevertheless, the 49ers seem ready to make a move. First of all, Kurt Warner retired. Second of all, Arizona looks as if it's ready to dump Warner's logical successor, Matt Leinart. Third, Seattle is going through a major overhaul. And fourth, well, fourth is that the 49ers have more talent than anyone here.
So it's up to coach Mike Singletary to do what nobody since Steve Mariucci has and win a title. Can it happen? Sure. And it should. But the only thing certain in this division is St. Louis, and, my apologies, Rams' fans, but you're going to have to wait a year.
Or two.
Significant additions: QB David Carr, RB Brian Westbrook, CB Karl Paymah, WR/KR Ted Ginn Jr., DE Travis LaBoy, CB Will James
Significant losses: DE Kentwan Balmer, QB Shaun Hill, RB Glen Coffee, T Tony Pashos, CB Marcus Hudson.
Biggest offseason move: Keeping the same offensive coordinator and the same offensive system, which essentially means doing nothing. Quarterback Alex Smith has struggled to keep up with the ever-changing systems in San Francisco, where there's a new coordinator every year. Only not this season. The team kept Jimmy Raye, with Smith the logical beneficiary, and so far, so good. Smith seems poised and confident this summer, and that's nothing but good for a city that prides itself on stellar quarterback play.
Will go to the playoffs if ... Smith looks as good as he has this summer. He was the first quarterback in a draft where Aaron Rodgers went with the 24th pick, and don't tell me that could happen again. But the 49ers did the right thing this year and kept their offensive coordinator, meaning Smith doesn't have to change to suit another new assistant and another new system. Smith doesn't have to be a franchise player; he just needs to become more confident, something that is possible now that he's familiar with the offense.
Rookie to watch: Take your pick, guard Mike Iupati or tackle Anthony Davis. The 49ers chose both in the first round of this year's draft and wasted no time plugging them in a starting rotation that has been less than scintillating lately. The 49ers got smart. For their quarterback to succeed, he had to be confident in the system and confident in his offensive line. So they kept Raye, and they drafted huge offensive linemen. Now it's up to Smith.
Overview: If the 49ers don't win the division this season they ought to make the entire staff take a lap around the bay. Arizona lost Kurt Warner, Seattle is in transition and St. Louis is St. Louis. So that leaves a void at the top, with the Niners the logical choice to fill it. Furthermore, they beat Arizona twice last season when the Cards had Warner. They could beat them twice again this year … and may have to in order to get to the top.
| Predicted Order of Finish | |
| 1 49ers | 2009: 8-8 (2nd NFC West) |
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Pts. Scored: 330 (18th overall) Pts. Allowed: 281 (4th overall) Off. Yds/G: 290.8 (27th overall) Def. Yds/G: 326.4 (15th overall) |
| 2 Seahawks | 2009: 5-11 (3rd NFC West) |
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Pts. Scored: 280 (25th overall) Pts. Allowed: 390 (25th overall) Off. Yds/G: 316.8 (21st overall) Def. Yds/G: 356.4 (24th overall) |
| 3 Cardinals | 2009: 10-6 (1st NFC West) |
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Pts. Scored: 375 (11th overall) Pts. Allowed: 325 (14th overall) Off. Yds/G: 344.4 (14th overall) Def. Yds/G: 346.4 (20th overall) |
| 4 Rams | 2009: 1-15 (4th NFC West) |
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Pts. Scored: 175 (32nd overall) Pts. Allowed: 436 (31st overall) Off. Yds/G: 279.4 (29 overall) Def. Yds/G: 372.8 (29th overall) |
Significant additions: WR Mike Williams, QB Charlie Whitehurst, RB Leon Washington, DE Chris Clemons, DE Kentwan Balmer, TE Chris Baker, S Kevin Ellison, RB Quinton Ganther, G Chester Pitts, G Ben Hamilton, LB Matt McCoy.
Significant losses: DE Darryl Tapp, QB Seneca Wallace, WR Nate Burleson, T Walter Jones, G Rob Sims, DE Patrick Kerney, DL Cory Redding, CB Ken Lucas, S Deon Grant, T Brandon Frye.
Biggest offseason move: The hiring of Pete Carroll, their third head coach in three years. Carroll brings energy, enthusiasm and change to a club that had gone stale. Check out Seattle's last few games last season and, outside of the New York Giants, I don't know many teams that were worse. The club absolutely crawled to the finish. So Carroll hired new coaches, including offensive line guru Alex Gibbs, and promised to make these guys into a playoff team. Maybe that happens this year, and maybe it doesn't. But first things first: This team has nine wins in the last two seasons. How about improving on that?
Will go to the playoffs if ... Carroll pushes all the right buttons, and quarterback Matt Hasselbeck stays injury free. Hasselbeck is the key here because Charlie Whitehurst, whom Seattle acquired to groom as his successor, has been underwhelming in preseason. Hasselbeck, meanwhile, is in the best shape of his life and is motivated to get this club back on top. It will take time, but in this division anything is possible.
Rookie to watch: Safety Earl Thomas. The Seahawks' secondary has been overmatched the last couple of seasons, and Thomas fills a need at a key position. So far he's everything the club hoped, intercepting a pass against Minnesota and returning it 86 yards for a score. The Seahawks need help for a pass defense that ranked 30th last year in yards allowed and produced only 13 interceptions. Thomas may be the answer. In two seasons at the University of Texas he had 10 interceptions, including eight last year.
Overview: I like this club, but I think it's a year away. Carroll has people around the building jumping, and it's hard not to get jacked and pumped -- those are Carroll's words, not mine -- about this team when you listen to its new head coach. But the offensive line is a work in progress, and the Seahawks will try to fashion a rushing attack with the same two backs -- Julius Jones and Justin Forsett -- who a year ago comprised the 26th-best rushing attack. No question, Gibbs will help make the offensive line better, but the Seahawks probably need to upgrade their backs, too.
Significant additions: G Alan Faneca, QB Derek Anderson, LB Joey Porter, LB Paris Lenon, KR Justin Miller, S Kerry Rhodes, K Jay Feely.
Significant losses: S Antrel Rolle, LB Karlos Dansby, WR Anquan Boldin, WR Jerheme Urban, K Neil Rackers, T Mike Gandy, CB Bryant McFadden.
Biggest offseason move: Losing Warner, who retired after last season. Matt Leinart was supposed to succeed him, but he hasn't impressed anyone this summer -- at least anyone who matters -- and is in danger of getting cut or traded. In short, he probably is not on the opening-day roster, which means ... you got it, Derek Anderson steps in for Warner. Anderson is a tough, gutsy quarterback whom teammates admire, but he's also a quarterback who completed 44.5 percent of his passes last season, with three TDs, 10 interceptions and a 42.1 passer rating.
Will go to the playoffs if ... San Francisco screws things up, which is always possible. The 49ers haven't had a winning season since 2002, so it's conceivable they trip before walking through an open door. Then it's Seattle and Arizona, and remember what I said: This is the NFC West where opportunity knocks for everyone outside the 314 area code.
Rookie to watch: Wide receiver Stephen Williams. Don't look for him on the Cardinals' draft board, though Arizona had him rated as a third-round talent. The former University of Toledo star signed as an undrafted free agent and has been busy making 31 ball clubs look bad. The backup to Larry Fitzgerald, the 6-foot-5 Williams almost certainly cemented a spot on the roster with a five-catch performance against Chicago, a game where he also scored. The Cards are deep in wide receivers. They just got deeper.
Overview: I liked this team going into training camp, and I liked it midway through training camp. But the turmoil surrounding Leinart has me backing off. I saw too much of Anderson misfiring last season to have a scintilla of faith in the guy. Ken Whisenhunt has made this team at least one victory better with each year he's been in Phoenix, but this is the season that trend ends.
Significant additions: QB A.J. Feeley, C Hank Fraley, LB Bobby Carpenter, CB Kevin Dockery, LB Na'il Diggs, DT Chris Hovan, S Kevin Payne, DT Fred Robbins.
Significant losses: TE Randy McMichael, QB Marc Bulger, QB Kyle Boller, T Alex Barron, DE Leonard Little, DE Adam Carriker, LB Paris Lenon, CB Jonathan Wade.
Biggest offseason move: Doing the right thing and choosing Bradford with the first pick of the draft. The Rams were missing a franchise quarterback to put people in the seats, and they just found him -– and, no, I'm not talking about A.J. Feeley. Coach Steve Spagnuolo keeps saying he hasn't made a decision on his starter, but c'mon, Steve, there's a gap the size of the Ozarks between these two quarterbacks. Yeah, I know, Feeley has the experience. But Bradford has the ability, and rewind his performance against New England and tell me he needs to sit.
Will go to the playoffs if ... The rest of the division takes the fall off.
Rookie to watch: Have you met Sam Bradford?
Overview: GM Billy Devaney is doing his best to dig this club out of years of dreadful drafts, and having Stan Kroenke aboard as the team's new owner will help. Kroenke will be patient with Devaney, fully aware of the minefield his GM had to run to get this far. The Rams will be better than they were a year ago, but when you're 1-15 you should be. Slowly, they're collecting quality players, but they're another year or two away from moving out of last place.
