Peek at the Week: Colts-Patriots never gets old
Game of the Week
Indianapolis at New England, 4:15 p.m. ET (CBS)
The line: Patriots by 3½
The story: This is the NFL's version of "Same Time, Next Year," the eighth straight year the Colts and Patriots have met in the regular season -- the longest streak among non-division opponents since the 2002 realignment. I think I speak for all of us when I say, "Hallelujah!" I can never get enough of this series because I can never get enough of the league's two best quarterbacks in the same game.
Between them, Peyton Manning and Tom Brady have five MVP awards, four Super Bowl rings and six Super Bowl appearances, and each is among the frontrunners for this year's MVP. Either is worthy, with both carrying their clubs now more than ever.
Manning lost his security blanket, Dallas Clark, for the season, while the Patriots traded away Brady's best (only?) deep threat in Randy Moss. Manning has had to play much of this year without Joseph Addai, while Brady operates with BenJarvus Green-Ellis and Danny Woodhead as his backs. And so it goes, but it doesn't seem to matter -- and it doesn't because Manning and Brady always make people around them better.
That's happening again. Too bad it's not happening on defense because both clubs could use help. The Colts are soft vs. the run; the Patriots are soft vs. the pass. Both give up too many points, yet both are division leaders and conference heavyweights because both share the same thing.
If you guessed quarterbacks, congratulations. You get to make "Pete's Picks" next week.
The edge here belongs to Brady because he's home and Manning is not. Indianapolis is 2-3 on the road, while Brady hasn't lost a regular-season home game in his past 24 starts. Yes, there have been close calls -- like the Baltimore game earlier this season -- but Brady always finds a way to win.
So where's the hope for the Colts? Look no farther than Manning. He knows how to beat New England, winning five of his past six against the Patriots. Plus, he has passed for 300 or more yards in four of his five road games this season. Once upon a time we asked if the Patriots were in Manning's head; now it's Bill Belichick who must answer the same question about Manning.
Something to consider: The past five meetings have been decided by no more than seven points.
Three games I'd like to see
Green Bay at Minnesota, 1 p.m. ET
The line: Packers by 3½
The story: Maybe this is the last meaningful game for Brett Favre. I don't know. If it is, how appropriate that it's his former team that is there for the sendoff.
|
|
| Brett Favre should be extra pumped if this is his finale vs. the Packers. (Getty Images) |
And maybe that's what happens here. Owner Zygi Wilf thought enough of Brad Childress a year ago that he gave him a contract extension, so I can't imagine he's quick with the hook here. Nevertheless, there is so much resentment building in Minneapolis -- from fans to unnamed players to the media -- that with each loss Childress' future becomes more of a hot-button topic than what happens next with Favre.
In both cases, the prospects aren't good, and if either is going to back off critics, a win here would sure help. Naturally that will be difficult, especially in light of the Vikings' lackluster play. But if this really is Favre's last game against Green Bay I can think of one guy who should have a pulse Sunday.
OK, so Minnesota is all but out of the NFC North playoff picture, with the Vikings forced to run the table to get off life support. And, granted, based on what I saw in Chicago last weekend there's more life in on Mars than there is the Minnesota offense.
But these aren't the Bears; these are the Packers, the team that let Brett Favre walk. Tell me this isn't something special for him, and tell me it shouldn't be something special for his teammates. I don't care if the Vikings don't win the division. They can still retain a shred of their lost dignity with a win here, though they won't succeed if they treat Aaron Rodgers as they did Jay Cutler.
And that's what this game comes down to: Pressuring Rodgers. Green Bay's running game won't beat you. But its quarterback can. So Minnesota must do something to unnerve Rodgers. The Vikes' pass rush has been a disappointment, with Jared Allen producing 4½ sacks, and that better change in a hurry. Otherwise, you can sit back, watch another quarterback pick these guys apart and listen to Zygi Wilf field the next question about his head coach.
Something to consider: The Packers have won 10 of their past 14 in games immediately following byes and are 3-1 under Mike McCarthy.
Oakland at Pittsburgh, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The line: Steelers by 7½
The story: The subject this week might have been the redemption of the Oakland Raiders, the return of "Just Win, Baby" or the resurrection of one of pro football's great rivalries. Only the Steelers screwed it all up last weekend by blowing a tire, with Chicken Little alarmists wondering if Pittsburgh is on the escalator going down. Please. The Steelers were considered one of the game's best clubs before getting flattened by New England. So now all of a sudden they're the S.S. Minnow? I don't think so.
Normally, I would say Oakland has an advantage of coming off a bye, but the weekend off occurred at the worst time for the Raiders. They're in the middle of a three-game surge, and you never know -- that momentum might have been lost. All I know is that the Raiders are back on top of their division and front and center of conversations again with a quarterback Washington didn't want -- Jason Campbell.
So he's not great. Big deal. He doesn't have to be. He just has to be effective, limiting his mistakes and making big plays when he can, and he has done that. Then again, he hasn't seen pressure like the heat Pittsburgh will throw at him, and that better be Oakland's concern now.
I don't worry about the Pittsburgh defense and what Tom Brady did to it because that's Tom Brady, and this is Jason Campbell. Campbell will get hit. He will get sacked. And he will make mistakes. Can the Raiders overcome all that? I doubt it. Pittsburgh doesn't drop two straight at home often, and the Steelers are motivated after last weekend's debacle. That should be enough.
Something to consider: Since returning to the Steelers, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for an NFL-best 1,304 yards. Roethlisberger is 35-11 at home and had a 123.3 passer rating in his last game against Oakland.
N.Y. Giants at Philadelphia, 8:20 p.m. ET
The line: Eagles by 3½
|
|
| Michael Vick leads the NFL in passer rating and has zero interceptions. (Getty Images) |
If Coughlin has indigestion, imagine how Perry Fewell feels. He's the Giants' defensive coordinator, which means he's the guy who designs the scheme to stop Vick. Just because nobody has doesn't mean it can't be done. I mean, they found the Titanic, didn't they? Plus, in Vick's last game against the Giants he was sacked seven times, with four fumbles, in a 2006 loss.
So it can happen. Only that was when Vick was with Atlanta and could make a raft of mistakes. This Michael Vick makes none. In case you missed it, Vick not only leads the NFL in passer rating, but he hasn't lost a game he started and finished this season and hasn't thrown an interception all year.
Accuracy is the biggest difference in his game, with the quarterback making all the throws to all the right people -- including a pair of over-the-middle bombs the past two weeks to DeSean Jackson. We all know Vick can run. But now he can throw, too, and it's up to the Giants to confine him to the pocket, force him into hurried deliveries and hope they can hit him.
I know, he's an elusive target. But the Giants did it once and now they're the league's top-rated defense. Maybe they can do it again. Me? I'm skeptical. I mean, if you get shredded by Jon Kitna one week how do you turn around and stuff Michael Vick the next? Anyone with an answer is urged to contact Perry Fewell. All calls are welcome.
Something to consider: Giants running back Ahmad Bradshaw leads the league with 10 carries of 20 or more yards each, but he could have trouble padding that total. The Giants are short at left tackle, with Shawn Andrews -- who replaced the injured David Diehl the past two games -- out with back soreness.
Monday night lights
Denver at San Diego, 8:30 p.m. ET
The line: Chargers by 10½
The story: Ooops, here they go again. I'm talking about the San Diego Chargers, who seem to be making their annual second-half run -- this time after a bye. Byes are always welcome, and this one was perfectly timed for a San Diego team that was bruised, beaten and gasping for air.
| Peek at the Week XI |
| Analysis |
Charley CasserlyWhen teams play the Colts and Patriots, the key is pressure on the QB and being able to disguise coverages. Five things to watch>> |
| Stories |
|
| Video |
|
| Fantasy Football |
|
| Video |
|
I'm serious. Look at this week's practices. Wide receivers Legedu Naanee and Malcom Floyd are back for the first time in a month, and that's big stuff for quarterback Philip Rivers, who last played with his five top receivers entering the season. One of those was tight end Antonio Gates, still suffering from a foot injury, but he's on his way to recovering, too -- listed at 50-50 for this one.
But that might characterize the Denver Broncos. Talk about a split personality. One week they hemorrhage 59 points to Oakland ... in Denver, no less. Then they return home to bury front-running Kansas City. Will the real Broncos please stand up? I don't know what to make of this team, other than it may have regained some of its balance with the return of Knowshon Moreno and boasts one of the top Comeback Player of the Year candidates in Brandon Lloyd.
Kyle Orton is having a big season, too, but quarterbacks on bad teams often produce big numbers because ... well, because that's what happens when you're always playing from behind. And that should happen again here because nobody is producing bigger numbers than Rivers. The way I see it, he loads up against a Denver defense tied for 29th in points allowed, 25th overall and 26th in sacks per pass play.
I know the Broncos stink against the run, too, but the Bolts' running game doesn't beat you. Rivers does. One look at those defensive numbers tells me this is another week where Rivers pads his totals.
Something to consider: San Diego is looking for its seventh straight win in November.
Crummy game of the week
Buffalo at Cincinnati, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)
The line: Bengals by 5½
The story: This game isn't sold out, the first time there has been a blackout in Cincinnati since November 2003, and you don't need me to tell you why. The Bills have won one of their first nine games. The Bengals have lost their past seven. The Bills haven't won on the road. The Bengals have lost their past three at home. The Bengals are 25th in yards per play on offense. The Bills are 27th. I think you get the idea. The Bills aren't much good, and neither are the Bengals.
If you're a Bills fan, of course, you want to tune in, and here's why: Dating back to 1989, Buffalo has won the past nine games against Cincinnati and scored at least 22 points in each of those games. Moreover, the Bills' past four games have been decisions where no more than three points separated the Buffalo and its opponents.
Can you say "Two straight wins?" You might Sunday.
Something to consider: The game will mark the ninth time Terrell Owens plays against a former team. In his eight previous performances, he averaged 103.4 yards receiving per game, with a total of seven TDs. His best game was a 213-yard effort in 2008 against Philadelphia.
Upset of the week
Minnesota (+3½) over Green Bay | 
Inside the NFL picks | Pete's Picks
I've taken risks before, but none as illogical as this one. The Vikings are floundering. Their head coach is under fire. Their quarterback is under fire. Their team is holding rehearsals for The Caine Mutiny. And their fans aren't allowed in the Metrodome without "Fire Chilly" placards.
Great, huh? Yet somehow, some way, I think the Vikes find a way to win here because somehow, some way, I think Brett Favre summons one of those magical games for his ex-teammates.
I know he didn't produce one when they met before. In fact, he was downright dreadful, with coach Brad Childress questioning his quarterback afterward. Not smart. But, hey, it happened, and now Childress and Favre are fighting the same fight, trying to make something out of a lost season.
This is their chance, and with Favre it may be his final chance to even the score with Green Bay. That makes it personal, and with Favre at home against an opponent he desperately wants to beat -- especially if it's the last time they meet -- yeah, that's good enough for me. Give me Favre and the Vikings.
Five guys I'd like to be
1. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco: In his past four starts, he has completed 67 percent of his passes with 10 touchdown passes, one interception and a passer rating of 114.2. In his past three games against NFC opponents, he has eight TD passes, one interception and a 119.5 passer rating.
2. Minnesota RB Adrian Peterson: He aims for his sixth straight game against Green Bay with a rushing touchdown. In his past five starts against the Pack, Peterson has averaged 115.6 yards and a TD per start.
3. Tennessee coach Jeff Fisher: The Titans have won their past 12 regular-season games against NFC opponents, and now Fisher draws Washington -- a loser two straight and three of its past four -- after the Redskins played Monday night.
4. N.Y. Giants WR Hakeem Nicks: He aims for his fourth straight road game with 100 yards and a touchdown.
5. San Diego QB Philip Rivers: He's 6-2 against Denver, with 14 touchdowns, 3 interceptions and a passer rating of 117.1.
Five best mano-a-manos
1. Indianapolis QB Peyton Manning vs. New England QB Tom Brady: Manning has won five of his past six vs. the Pats; Brady is 7-4 vs. the Colts. Let the games begin.
2. Washington DT Albert Haynesworth vs. Tennessee: He was outstanding in Tennessee. He rides the bench in Washington. Money doesn't buy happiness, and here's the proof.
| |
3. Minnesota QB Brett Favre vs. Packers: Favre is 2-1 against Green Bay with 8 touchdown passes, 3 interceptions, a 106.6 passer rating and one big ax to grind for the last time.
4. Kansas City coach Todd Haley vs. Arizona: Once the Cards' offensive coordinator, Haley tries to run the Chiefs' record at home to 5-0 for the first time since 2003 -- and he does it against an opponent on a four-game slide.
5. Cincinnati WR Terrell Owens vs. Buffalo: He spent a season with Buffalo and didn't do much of anything. Now he plays the Bills in a game that might draw lower ratings than The T.Ocho Show. Yeah, well, let the games begin here, too.
Five things that may only interest me
1. The Detroit Lions have scored TDs on 17 of 25 red-zone possessions, the best rate in the NFC.
2. St. Louis rookie Sam Bradford doesn't have an interception in his past 138 passing attempts.
3. Through the first nine games there are 18 teams with winning records, tied for the second most at this point in league history. And for the first time since realignment in 2002, every division leader has no more than a one-game lead. Can you say ... parity?
4. With 308 yards passing against Denver, Rivers would set an NFL record for most passing yards through the first 10 games, breaking Drew Brees' mark of 3,251, set in 2008.
5. Warning to Carolina fans: Under John Harbaugh, Baltimore is 13-1 against opponents with sub-.500 records. His only loss was to 0-1 Cincinnati this season.
Numbers to crunch
1: Catches needed for T.J. Houshmandzadeh to reach 600, joining teammates Derrick Mason and Anquan Boldin
2: Touchdown passes Joe Flacco needs to set Baltimore's career mark
6: Fourth-quarter TD passes by Carson Palmer, tied for league best
8: Arizona returns for touchdowns
22: Consecutive games with a Philip Rivers touchdown pass
80: Green Bay points off takeaways, the league best
4-1: Sam Bradford at home
12-2: Vince Young's record vs. the NFC
• Charlotte, N.C.: Mostly sunny, high of 68
• Cincinnati: Partly cloudy, high of 64
• Arlington, Texas: Cloudy, high of 76 (retractable roof)
• Jacksonville, Fla.: Partly cloudy, high of 76
• Kansas City, Mo.: Partly cloudy, high of 70
• Minneapolis: Dome
• East Rutherford,N.J. : Partly cloudy, high of 47
• Pittsburgh: Partly cloudy, high of 56
• Nashville, Tenn.: Partly cloudy, high of 72
• New Orleans: Dome
• St. Louis: Dome
• San Francisco: Showers, high of 57
• Foxborough, Mass.: Partly cloudy, high of 42
• Philadelphia: Partly cloudy, high of 51
Where we will be
• Pete Prisco will be in Foxborough to explain why it's not spelled Foxboro.
• I'll be in Philadelphia to treat Giants defenders for whiplash.
• Mike Freeman will be at the New Meadowlands to tell us if Matt Schaub is more likely to start than the stadium lights.
• Gregg Doyel will be in Pittsburgh to tell us what became of "The Criminal Element."
