Peek at the Week: It's winning time or else for Jets, Eagles
Game of the week
N.Y. Jets at New England, 4:15 p.m. ET (CBS) | 
Preview
The line: Patriots by 9½
The story: The betting line is the story. I mean, 9½ points? Really? I know the Patriots are the better team, but 9½ points better than an opponent that drilled them the last time they played? I have a tough time swallowing that. Of course, I have a tough time swallowing much of anything involving the New York Jets these days.
"Maybe people don't think we're very good," coach Rex Ryan said this week.
Maybe? They can't run. They can't block. They can't pass. They can't stop the run. They can't stop the bleeding. Other than that, they're just fine. This is a huge game for Generation Rex, and it's not hard to figure out why: A loss would drop them two games behind the Patriots and jam them in a three-game spin cycle, with three winning teams (New England, San Diego, Buffalo) among their next four opponents.
Somehow, somewhere, the Jets must straighten themselves out, but I can think of better locations. The Patriots have not only won their past 18 regular-season games here, but Tom Brady loses in Gillette Stadium about as often as the Washington Generals win on the road. In fact, Brady has scored victories in his past 29 regular-season games at home and is 14-5 lifetime overall vs. the Jets.
Nevertheless, there is hope, Fireman Ed. The Patriots' defense leaks so badly it ranks last in overall defense and last in pass defense. That means New England must score and score a lot to keep up with the other team, and that can happen when Brady is your quarterback. In fact, all he has done is throw two or more touchdown passes in his past 13 games, while the Patriots have scored 30 or more points in their past 12 regular-season starts.
That explains the 3-1 record.
And the Jets? Well, not having Nick Mangold the past two weeks certainly hurt, and there's a feeling that if and when he returns Sunday everything will be OK. Maybe. But keep this in mind: Before Mangold left, the Jets weren't running effectively, either, averaging 3.0 yards a carry. Nor was Mark Sanchez particularly effective. But Mangold can wall off Vince Wilfork, who has three quarterback hurries, half a sack and two interceptions this season. At least that's something.
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Pete PriscoWith Revis Island ahead, it's time to study Wes Welker's success, plus who else is producing and who isn't. Further Review >> Prisco: Top 10 matchups to watch in Week 5 |
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Something to consider: Brady is on pace to throw for 6,212 yards this season. Only two quarterbacks have thrown for over 5,000 yards in a year, with Dan Marino's 5,084 the league record (1984).
Three games I'd like to see
Philadelphia at Buffalo, 1 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Eagles by 3½
The story: Every time I hear Tom Petty's Free Fallin' I think of the Eagles. They're not in a rut; they're in a full-scale swan dive that threatens to sink their chances of making any dreams happen. Sooner or later they must start winning ... or else. I can only imagine the possibilities, none of them good.
Anyway, I see where Michael Vick this week said enough is enough and let's can the "Dream Team" talk. Smart. The Eagles need to stop talking and start winning, and it can happen here. I just don't know that it does. The past three weeks these guys blew fourth-quarter leads, and they can do it again ... especially vs. an opponent that overcame 18- and 21-point deficits in consecutive weeks.
Buffalo has a balanced attack that can keep Vick and Co. off the field, with running back Fred Jackson the featured performer. The Eagles rank 30th vs. the run, and Jackson is one of the league's most underrated backs. His lead blocker, Corey McIntyre, is underrated, too. My good friend Rich Q., who follows the Bills, tells me that if McIntyre gets to the second level -- that is, if he goes mano-a-mano with linebackers and safeties -- it's over. The Bills spread the Eagles' defensive line, run Jackson up the gut behind McIntyre, and, just like that, it's another Eagles heartbreaker.
Maybe. But Philadelphia is a desperate team with a load of talent. Plus, Buffalo is without left tackle Demetrius Bell, which means rookie Chris Hairston makes his first start there, with tight end Scott Chandler in all likelihood called on to help chip onrushing linemen. Correction: To chip Jason Babin, and good luck, folks. He leads the league with seven sacks.
The Eagles can get after the quarterback, with their 15 sacks tied for the league lead. They just can't get after running backs, and that's a problem here. So is the Eagles' offensive line. Rookie Danny Watkins starts at right guard. King Dunlap starts at left tackle. The center is a rookie. Their left guard is new. Their right tackle is the former left guard. I think you get the picture. There are cracks galore, with onrushing defensive linemen filling them.
But that's not all. There are turnovers galore, too. Philadelphia makes too many of them -- 10 to be exact. The Eagles are favored because people believe the tailspin can't last forever, but that's what we said last week. Now there's an urgency to that call. Philadelphia must ... absolutely, positively must ... get this thing turned around.
Now.
I know it's the fifth week of the season, but it's not too soon to label this a critical game for one team, and that team is not Buffalo.
Something to consider: Beware another second-half swoon, Eagles fans. Buffalo quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick in the second half is completing 69.4 percent of his passes with six touchdowns, no interceptions and a passer rating of 123.6.
Oakland at Houston, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview
The line: Texans by 6½
The story: I'm not sure why this spread is so big, either, especially after Andre Johnson checked out of the Houston lineup. I know the Texans are a tough out at home, but they didn't do much last weekend after Johnson exited. Yes, they won, but they also scored once without their star receiver. That won't work vs. Oakland, which we learned this week is the team to beat in the AFC West ... or so says its head coach.
Hue Jackson likes his club, and I can see why. There's talent in most of the right places. But the quarterback scares me. I'm just not sure Jason Campbell can dig these guys out of holes when he must. He didn't last week. OK, so he has seven TD passes and only one interception in his past five road games. He has also won two of his past three. Still, there's something about him I don't trust when Oakland absolutely, positively needs to make a play.
Of course, Campbell usually doesn't have to make plays, which is what happens when you have the league's top running game. Darren McFadden and Michael Bush will try to do to Houston this week what the Texans did to Pittsburgh last week -- namely, wear them down with a relentless and effective rushing attack.
Who says you don't have to run anymore? Oakland and Houston rank 1-2 in the AFC in that department, with the Raiders grinding out 178.5 yards a game. But if they're going to win the West, as Jackson says, they must accomplish a couple of things sooner or later: First, beat non-division opponents; second, cut down on the penalties.
So far, neither is happening. The Raiders are 1-2 outside the AFC West, and they lead the league with 39 penalties -- an average of nearly 10 per game. If they're serious about going to the top of their division, they're not going to do it like that.
Something to consider: Since the start of last season no two running backs have rushed for more yards per game than Arian Foster (100.2) and McFadden (95.6).
Green Bay at Atlanta, 8:20 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Packers by 6½
The story: It's the 2010 playoffs all over again, only this time the Packers are favored. That's because Atlanta couldn't stop them in January, and few expect the Falcons to stop them now. I mean, if Tarvaris Jackson can look decent against Atlanta, what happens when Aaron Rodgers is in the building? Well, he is, and it could be a nightmare for the league's 24th-ranked pass defense.
Look, when the Falcons traded away five draft choices for the sixth pick in this year's draft I thought they would use that choice to plug holes on a defense that Green Bay exploited. They did not. Instead, they joined the arms race, adding wide receiver Julio Jones to a cast that already included Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez. I guess the feeling was, anything you can do, we can do better.
Only they aren't. The Falcons are 2-2 because their defense doesn't look appreciably improved over the one that cratered in the playoffs. I know Matt Ryan didn't help with two critical interceptions in that meltdown -- including one late in the second quarter that Tramon Williams returned for a touchdown -- but their defense had more holes that evening than Augusta.
Yes, Atlanta beat the Pack here during the 2010 regular season, but it was partly because the Packers had no running game. So Rodgers tried to do it all, sneaking the ball in at the Atlanta 1, and proved that as a running back he makes a better quarterback. His goal-line fumble cost the Packers the game.
I can't imagine that happening again, not just because Ryan Grant and James Starks are back but because Rodgers is a better -- far better -- quarterback now than he was then.
I wish I could say the same about Atlanta as a ballclub. I can't. This is a team that a year ago committed just 58 penalties. Now the Falcons have run up 27 and the players have been fined $47,500 by the NFL. Do the math, people: At the rate they're going they'll wind up with 108 penalties, or nearly twice their total of last season. Not good.
Atlanta must demonstrate it can play with the heavyweights, and this is its chance. The Falcons are a tough out at home, but Green Bay is a tough out anywhere. Look for a tennis match, with the last team to hold serve the winner.
Something to consider: Rodgers has won his past 10 starts, including the playoffs, and has a passer rating of 100 or better in eight of those games. In three games vs. Atlanta he has seven touchdown passes and one interception.
Monday night lights
Chicago at Detroit, 8:30 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: Lions by 6½
The story: This one's all about the home team. It's the first Monday night game for the Lions since 2001, and it could be the first game period for rookie defensive tackle Nick Fairley, expected to play after missing most of the past two months with a foot injury. That's why they call it Motown, folks, with momentum clearly in the Lions' corner. They're hot. They're confident. And they're good.
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| Advice to Detroit's opponents: Double-team Calvin Johnson and take your chances with the rest of the Lions. (Getty Images) |
Detroit will feature the usual cast of characters, with Calvin Johnson practically daring Chicago to double-team him. For the sake of the Bears, they should. I saw what happened in Dallas last weekend, and there's a lesson there: DO NOT SINGLE-COVER THE BEST RECEIVER IN THE GAME! Hey, if you're Lovie Smith, you want to take your chances with Calvin Johnson or with Jahvid Best, Nate Burleson, Tony Scheffler and Brandon Pettigrew? I thought so.
Of course, if you're Lovie Smith, you're never sure what offensive coordinator Mike Martz has next on the menu. One week he doesn't run; the next he doesn't pass. After only 17 Jay Cutler attempts last week, I imagine the pendulum swings back ... only because it might have to. The Lions put points on the board, and they can do it in a hurry. That could push Martz into warming up Cutler, and, against this opponent, that's not a bad idea.
Since joining the Bears, Cutler is 4-0 vs. Detroit, with nine touchdowns and only one interception. What's more, he has a passer rating of 100 or better in each of those four starts, and that's significant. When Cutler hits three digits, his teams are 23-0.
Something to consider: Under Lovie Smith, the Bears are 6-1 on Monday nights, including four straight victories.
Upset of the week
Denver over San Diego, 4:15 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview
The line: Chargers by 4½
The story: If you have watched Denver's pass defense -- and I use that term about as loosely as the Broncos play it -- there's no way they stay in this game. Aaron Rodgers had his way with them, so Philip Rivers will, too ... right? Maybe. Except there's something that tells me this is a trap waiting to spring on the Bolts. They weren't all that impressive through their first four starts, though they did win all but one, and I know a win is a win is a win. I'm all for that. But the combined record of the opponents they've beaten is 1-11.
So Denver's not much better. The Broncos are home, where they always hold an advantage. Plus, until last weekend, they stayed within three points of their first three opponents. But there's something else: There's an urgency to do something, anything, now that the Tim Tebow Fan Flash Mob is ready to spring into action.
And this just might be that time. San Diego tight end Antonio Gates will be out again, and that's an enormous loss for the Bolts. The poor guy can't shake a painful foot injury, and without him the offense is limited. I know, Vincent Jackson is a load, but so is Gates. More important, he is Rivers' security blanket, and he's gone.
There is so much that tells me this shouldn't happen. Rivers has won all but two starts against these guys. The Chargers have won four of their past five in Denver. And, frankly, they're just a better team than this week's opponent. But that's why they call them upsets, folks. It shouldn't happen, but it could. I say it will.
Something to consider Rivers is 8-2 vs. Denver, with 18 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 112.4 rating.
Crummy game of the week
Kansas City at Indianapolis, 1 p.m. ET (CBS) | Preview
The line: Colts by 3½
The story: I know one spectator who should be interested in this game: Stanford's Andrew Luck. Either or both of these teams could be jockeying to draft him next year, with Sunday's loser a possible winner next April. That's right, the worst team in the league gets the best quarterback in years ... and consider both clubs worthy candidates.
The Chiefs are playing better after a horrible start and actually broke through last weekend, so, naturally, they're the favorite here. What's that? A 3½-point underdog? That makes no sense ... unless, of course, you believe this is the week the Colts wake up. They played just well enough to lose the past two weekends but keep losing players to injuries, suspensions, something.
Curtis Painter is the quarterback now, and look no further for why Luck could make sense for the Colts. I mean, nobody knows if Peyton Manning plays again, though most think he does. Kerry Collins appears finished. And Painter? Well, if the Colts had a conviction about him before they never would've hired Collins, right?
Anyway, we have two bad teams positioning themselves for one marvelous player. Gentlemen, stop your engines.
Something to consider: The Chiefs have won their past six when leading at the half.
Five guys I'd like to be
1. Philadelphia quarterback Michael Vick: Not only is he 1-0 vs. Buffalo, but since he joined the Eagles he's unbeaten in three starts vs. AFC opponents, with six touchdowns, one interception and a passer rating of 105.6. He also has another 152 yards and three TDs rushing.
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2. Carolina wide receiver Steve Smith: He has four career 100-yard games vs. New Orleans and three in four starts this season.
3. Minnesota quarterback Donovan McNabb: In eight career starts vs. Arizona, including the playoffs, he has 19 touchdowns, six interceptions and a passer rating of 102.4. In his past three starts against the Cards, he has 11 TDs, two interceptions and a passer rating of 117.3. When McNabb throws at least 10 times and has a passer rating of 100 his teams are 46-3.
4. Chicago defensive end Julius Peppers: He has nine sacks in six career games vs. Detroit and at least one sack in each of those starts.
5. N.Y. Giants quarterback Eli Manning: He aims for his third straight game against Seattle with a passer rating of 125 or more. In his past two starts against the Seahawks he completed 70.2 percent of his passes, with five touchdowns, no interceptions and a 130.5 rating.
Five best faceoffs
1. New England quarterback Tom Brady vs. New York Jets cornerback Antonio Cromartie: A year ago, Cromartie had some not-so-nice things to say about the league MVP, including how he "hates" him, and he didn't back off this week. In fact, he went a step farther. Now he says he hopes Brady tries to pick on him, telling the Associated Press, "I hope I'm a target this game. I want to be the target every game." All I can say is be careful what you wish for.
2. Minnesota quarterback Donovan McNabb vs. Arizona quarterback Kevin Kolb: Two years ago, they were on the same bench. McNabb was Philadelphia's starter, and Kolb was the understudy. Then the Eagles traded both away, and it's time to decide who has the better quarterback. Washington already cut its losses with McNabb, but Minnesota refuses to sit him down. This is a chance to see why.
3. New York Jets wide receiver Plaxico Burress vs. Patriots fans: Burress hasn't been to Gillette Stadium since 2002, but he has had an enormous impact on New England fans -- crushing them with the game-winning catch in Super Bowl XLII. Nearly four years later, he's sure he'll hear about it. "I expect to get booed," he said. I'd say that's about right.
4. Pittsburgh offense vs. Pittsburgh defense: The Steelers' defense is hurting, and, yes, I mean that literally. All-Pro linebacker James Harrison is out 4-6 weeks and defensive end Aaron Smith is out this weekend. Plus, the Steelers can't stop the run and have an NFL-worst one takeaway all year. Somebody needs to make a play, and wide receiver Hines Ward has a suggestion. "It's time for the offense to step up and carry this team," he said. Good idea, except for one thing: Who's going to carry that offensive line?
5. San Diego's offense vs. the red zone: The Chargers move up and down the field better than anyone, holding the ball an NFL-best 34 minutes, 5 seconds per game. They have more five-minute drives (nine) than anyone and lead the league in third-down conversion percentage (58.5). Yet put them inside opponents' 20, and they shift into neutral. The Chargers have been there 17 times, scoring on only 12 series and producing touchdowns eight times. Yuck. Oh, yeah, quarterback Philip Rivers has an NFL-worst 52.3 passer rating there, too, and don't ask why. "It's too early to analyze," he said. Maybe, but it better get fixed. Otherwise, Hue Jackson may be right.
Five things that may interest only me
1. Since 1990, or after the current 12-team playoff format was introduced, 35.7 percent of teams starting 2-2 or worse advanced to the playoffs. Moreover, in five of the past 10 years, a team that was no better than .500 after four games went to the Super Bowl –- with three (New England in 2001, the Patriots in 2003 and the Giants in 2007) winning it.
2. Nineteen games have been decided by three or fewer points, the most through the first four weeks of a season.
3. If Green Bay and Detroit stay unbeaten this weekend, they move to 5-0. So what? It marks the second time since realignment in 2002 that two teams from the same division have that record. The New York Jets and New England Patriots did it in 2004.
4. Since 2007, Houston's Matt Schaub leads all quarterbacks with a 99.1 passer rating in games decided by eight or fewer points. The Saints' Drew Brees is second (95.8) and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers third (95.3). Brees, however, leads all quarterbacks with 61 touchdown passes in games decided by eight or fewer points. Now the question: Which quarterback has the best record in those contests? If you said Peyton Manning, you get a free lunch with Pete Prisco at the Jacksonville airport. Manning is 26-8, followed by brother Eli and Atlanta's Matt Ryan at 19-7.
5. Already there have been four teams that have come back from deficits of 20 or more points to win -- tying the previous record for a season. In addition, 16 clubs have rallied from setbacks of 10 or more points to win, the best through four weeks of any year.
Numbers on the wall
1-10: Kansas City's record vs. Indianapolis since 1990, including playoffs
6: Consecutive games with a Jared Allen sack
7: Straight losses in Jacksonville for Bengals
7.1: Average yards per carry for Buffalo's Fred Jackson at home
8: Individual 400-yard passing games, the most through the first four weeks of any season
21-4: Atlanta's record at home under Mike Smith, the league's second-best percentage over the past three seasons. Only New England (22-3) is better.
27-1: Atlanta's record in games where it leads after three quarters
94.3: Field-goal percentage for Minnesota's Ryan Longwell since 2009, best in the NFL
154: Average yards receiving per game for Wes Welker, best in the NFL
• Orchard Park, N.Y.: Sunny, high of 75
• Charlotte, N.C.: Mostly cloudy, high of 74
• Houston: Isolated thunderstorms, high of 86 (retractable roof)
• Indianapolis: Sunny, high of 81 (retractable roof)
• Jacksonville: Thunderstorms, high of 75
• Minneapolis: Dome
• East Rutherford, N.J.: Sunny, high of 86
• Pittsburgh: Sunny, high of 79
• San Francisco: Mostly sunny, high of 70
• Denver: Few showers, high of 56
• Foxborough, Mass.: Sunny, high of 82
• Atlanta: Dome
Where we will be
• I'll be in Houston to stay out of Darren McFadden's way.
• Pete Prisco will be in Atlanta to ask Aaron Rodgers why it took him so long to get there.
• Mike Freeman will be in New England to spell M-E-S-S, MESS! MESS! MESS!
• Gregg Doyel will be in Detroit on Monday to play basketball with Calvin Johnson.
