Peek at the Week: Plenty of mud, bad blood with Super Bowl berth at stake
Games of the week
Baltimore at New England, 3 p.m. ET (CBS) | 
Preview
The line: Patriots by 7½
The story: Two years ago the Ravens went to New England and hammered the Patriots 33-14, with Baltimore running over, around and through the hapless Patriots for 234 yards -- including a Ray Rice 83-yard touchdown on the game's first snap. If they can repeat that performance, they're going to the Super Bowl.
But most people think they won't. Granted, the Patriots are the league's 31st-ranked defense, but they've been better lately -- mostly because they've played a collection of stiffs. Nevertheless, they won. In fact, they have won nine straight, and that's all that matters. Now, on the verge of their fifth Super Bowl with Tom Brady, they're heavy favorites to win.
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The reason, of course, is Brady. He seldom loses at home, and he almost never loses playoff games here. Except he did ... two years ago to Baltimore when his four turnovers led to 20 Baltimore points. That should give the Ravens confidence that the improbable can happen, only there's an asterisk: Brady played with broken ribs.
Now he has a sore left shoulder, but it didn't seem to bother him a week ago when he shredded Denver. The expectation is that he can tear up the Ravens, too, especially if they have as much trouble with their pass rush as they did a week ago against T.J. Yates.
Yeah, I know, Yates still threw three interceptions. But that's what a third-string rookie can do. Brady won't make the same mistakes. The Ravens must pressure him, must hit him and must make him move in the pocket. Otherwise, as linebacker Jarret Johnson so eloquently put it this week, "he'll kill you."
I'd say that's a big 10-4.
Which is why I mention the Ravens' running game. Two years ago it tore up the Patriots, and it's Baltimore's biggest ... maybe only ... chance to pull an encore. I don't know that the Ravens can defend Brady, but they might with an offense that controls the ball, moves the chains and keeps him off the field. I saw it work in Pittsburgh this year, and I saw it work in Cleveland last season.
The key, however, is making him play from behind. I don't know why Denver thought it would be a good idea last week to defer on the opening kickoff and give Brady the ball. The Broncos were asking for swift and immediate punishment, and they got it ... all night long.
For all the questions about Joe Flacco, I don't think it's Flacco as much as it's Rice who is the key to this game. If Rice can accumulate the yards he had two years ago, the Ravens have a chance. Then they take the game off Flacco's shoulders and maybe, just maybe, minimize the damage Brady can inflict.
On defense, it's imperative the Ravens squeeze the pocket, and based on what I've seen lately that's a concern for Baltimore fans. The Ravens had no sacks last weekend. They had one in the season finale vs. Cincinnati. They had two the week before vs. Cleveland and none against San Diego. That's three sacks in the past four games, and that's not good.
Maybe now you know why people are so confident that New England -- even with the league's 31st-ranked defense -- can make it to the Super Bowl.
Something to consider: The Ravens allowed a league-low 21 offensive touchdowns this season and ranked first in red-zone defense, surrendering TDs a league-best 38.1 percent of the time.
N.Y. Giants at San Francisco, 6:30 p.m. ET | Preview
The line: 49ers by 2½
The story: It might be the weather. The forecast calls for showers Friday, Saturday and Sunday, and when you play on a surface that's below sea level that's a problem. I've covered games here in the rain, and the surface of Candlestick Park can look more like a lagoon than a football field, which means it's not a sloppy track; it's not a track at all.
I don't know who that favors, but I know it's a story waiting to happen. Someone is going to fall, lose a ball or miss a tackle because of the elements, and, hey, that's the game we love, right?
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| Hakeem Nicks has two TD catches in each of the Giants' playoff victories. (Getty Images) |
I don't expect the Giants to run effectively here, not just because Sam Francisco was the league's best vs. the run -- refusing to allow a rushing TD over the first 14 games -- but because the Giants' rushing attack ranked last. They've been better lately, producing a season-high 172 yards vs. Atlanta in the playoffs, but this is not Atlanta.
And that's OK because it's not Ahmad Bradshaw or Brandon Jacobs that have done the heavy lifting this season; it's Eli Manning and his cadre of receivers. Manning is hot, with six touchdown passes and one interception in the playoffs, and he has won his past four playoff games on the road. His favorite targets are Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz, and with good reason: Both can stretch the field, with Nicks the past two weeks scoring four times and averaging 21.4 yards per catch on a team-high 13 receptions.
But don't lose sight of Cruz, Mario Manningham or tight end Jake Ballard. All are reliable receivers, and all pose problems for the 49ers' secondary if their front seven can't pressure the pocket -- which they couldn't when these two met in November. San Francisco had one sack that afternoon, and Manning was this close to leading the Giants to a game-tying touchdown late in the fourth quarter when his pass for Cruz was batted down at the line of scrimmage.
The expectation is that the Giants win because they're rolling, they've gotten healthy and they can pressure the pocket with their front four -- and maybe that happens. But I would never underestimate San Francisco ... not after what I witnessed last weekend. The 49ers believe they are, as former owner Eddie DeBartolo put it, "a team of destiny," with Alex Smith, Frank Gore and the NFC's best defense taking them to their first Super Bowl since 1994.
That team was loaded on offense and defense. This team is loaded on defense. And if the 49ers are going to win, that is where they do it -- forcing Manning into mistakes or producing the fumbles that crippled New Orleans. The 49ers unnerved the Saints with their defense, and they unnerved them with their special teams, and a word of caution here: If this game comes down to special teams, the 49ers win.
They have a Pro Bowl kicker, a Pro Bowl punter and coverage units that don't allow return specialists to breathe. San Francisco would love the game to be decided there, but they will take their chances with Smith, too. A week ago, we said he couldn't win a shootout with Drew Brees ... but that's exactly what he did.
That makes the 49ers confident. But the Giants are confident, too. What you're about to see should be the showcase event of the weekend.
Something to consider: The 49ers have won eight of their past nine games in which Michael Crabtree has a touchdown catch.
Five guys I'd like to be
1. Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs: He has three sacks and two forced fumbles in his past three games vs. New England. He also has 10 sacks in 10 playoff games, and, with one more, would tie LaMarr Woodley and Charles Haley for fourth place on the postseason list.
2. Baltimore running back Ray Rice: In three career starts vs. New England he has averaged 145.7 yards per game, including an 83-yard touchdown run on the first play of the 2009 playoff game.
3. N.Y. Giants quarterback Eli Manning: He's 6-3 in the playoffs and 4-1 on the road -- including four straight there.
4. New England quarterback Tom Brady: He's 4-1 vs. Baltimore, though he has just six touchdowns against six interceptions.
5. San Francisco kicker David Akers: His teams have won seven straight games vs. the Giants and are 2-1 against them in the playoffs.
Five best matchups
1. Baltimore linebacker Terrell Suggs vs. New England quarterback Tom Brady: It's UGGs vs. Suggs, as Brady put it. Suggs said he has nothing against Brady, but I don't buy it. The Baltimore defense believes officials protect the quarterback, with Suggs and linebacker Ray Lewis incensed after Baltimore was called for nine penalties in a 2009 regular-season loss, including a couple of critical roughing-the-passer calls. "Without going totally off the wall," Lewis said then, "it's embarrassing to the game." Suggs agreed. "Maybe next year it will be two-handed touch for the sack," he said after that game, "because we can't tackle." One year later, it was Suggs who said he wouldn't vote for Brady for the Pro Bowl ... when he was a unanimous choice as league MVP. Gentlemen, start your engines.
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2. New York Giants running back Brandon Jacobs vs. former San Francisco wide receiver Jerry Rice: It was Rice who called Jacobs "a little soft" this week, adding, "He can't get away from defenders." Jacobs tried hard not to bite, saying he grew up a 49ers fan and a fan of Rice, and would have nothing to say about his comment. Except he did. "I betcha he won't tackle me," he said. I'm with Jacobs.
3. New York Giants wide receiver Mario Manningham vs. the San Francisco secondary: You can tell the Giants must feel good about themselves. There are more incendiary quotes coming out of this locker room than there are head cases in the Jets' huddle. Now it's Manningham's turn, with the wide receiver acknowledging that while the San Francisco secondary is "good," it "ain't the best secondary we faced."
4. Baltimore linebackers coach Dean Pees vs. his ex-employer: Pees was the defensive coordinator who left the Patriots under mysterious circumstances following their 2009 playoff loss to Baltimore. It is uncertain what happened, though Pees this week insisted he was not fired and left on his own terms. "It was just time for a change," he said. It was on his watch that the team set a franchise record for fewest points allowed (237 in 2006), and New England's loss is Baltimore's gain -- with Pees offering the Ravens insight into how the Patriots might attack them Sunday.
5. Baltimore quarterback Joe Flacco vs. Baltimore safety Ed Reed: This is not supposed to be the time of year when teammates go mano-a-mano, but Reed threw down the challenge when he said on radio that "it just didn't look like [Flacco] had a hold of the offense" in the Ravens' playoff win over Houston. I'm not sure what Reed's motivation was, but Flacco said he talked to his teammate and no harm, no foul. Yeah, sure. The enemy here, guys, is New England, not yourselves.
Five quotes to remember
1. "We can't be beat." -- New York Giants safety Antrel Rolle.
2. "This is not going to be a cute football game. It's not going to be for the meek and mild. This is going to be a bloodbath." -- New York Giants defensive tackle Chris Canty.
3. "We're going to talk on Sunday. That's the only answer we need. They [the Giants] can say whatever they want. God bless 'em. But we're going to go out there prepared to win a football game, and that's it." -- San Francisco safety Donte Whitner.
4. "That's the pretty boy. That's the man of the NFL. That's Mr. Do It All. So everybody is going to hold it against me, but I don't care. I don't play for me. I don't play for no woman. I play because I'm given the gift to play this game." -- Baltimore safety Bernard Pollard on his hit that ended Tom Brady's 2008 season.
5. "You have to pressure Brady. If you let him stand there he's going to kill you." -- Baltimore linebacker Jarret Johnson.
Five things that may only interest me
1. Since 2006 the NFC division that faced the AFC East in the regular season produced the eventual NFC champion. In 2006, it was the North (Bears). In 2007, the East (Giants). In 2008, the West (Cardinals). In 2009, the South (Saints). And last year, the North (Packers). This season, the NFC East-champion Giants swept the AFC East.
2. Tom Brady is 15-5 in the playoffs. Only one quarterback, Joe Montana, has more playoff victories ... and he had 16.
3. Joe Flacco is 49-23 as a starter. With one more victory, he would become the first quarterback to win 50 games in his first four NFL seasons as a starter and would tie Brady for most playoff victories (six) in his first four NFL seasons.
4. There have been 25 playoff games at Candlestick Park since 1970, with the 49ers 19-6.
5. The Giants' Tom Coughlin has six playoff road wins. With one Sunday he ties Tom Landry for the most in NFL history.
Numbers that may mean something
1-4: Baltimore's record in Foxborough
3: Rushing touchdowns allowed this season by San Francisco
3-0: New England's record in AFC Championship Games at home
7: Running backs knocked out of games by the 49ers
12: Osi Umenyiora sacks in 11 games this season
20: Baltimore interceptions in its past 10 playoff games
Plus-32: 49ers' takeaway/turnover differential this season, including playoffs
52: New England sacks in the playoffs since 2000, second only to Pittsburgh (53)
• Foxborough, Mass.: Cloudy, high of 35
• San Francisco: Showers, high of 57
Where we will be
• I'll be in Foxborough with Mike Freeman to sit in pregame traffic on Route 1.
• Pete Prisco and Gregg Doyel will be in San Francisco to see how they look in wet suits.
