NFL Draft 2003: Offensive Analysis

Philadelphia, PA (Sports Network) - The upcoming NFL draft doesn’t have the depth on offense that last year’s edition presented. Teams in search of quarterbacks or wide receivers will be in good shape come April 26-27, but there is a significant drop off in talent at several positions on offense, including tight end and running back.

Last year’s draft was the best in ages for the tight end position. Jeremy Shockey, Randy McMichael, Daniel Graham, Doug Jolley, Matt Schobel and Jerramy Stevens all made an impact last season and have bright futures ahead of them.

This draft lacks a Shockey and fails to provide many adequate prospects at all.

Could we be in store for a running back-free first round? Miami’s Willis McGahee was a lock to be one of the first three players chosen on the final Saturday in April before he blew out his knee in January’s national title game against Ohio State. Now McGahee is projected to be a second-round selection.

The rest of the class doesn’t have the same flair as last season’s troika of William Green, T.J. Duckett and Clinton Portis.

Only four of the top-10 selections in the 2003 draft are projected to be offensive players. Those four include two quarterbacks (Carson Palmer and Byron Leftwich) and two wide receivers (Charles Rogers and Andre Johnson).

Overall, only one-third of the first round’s 32 selections are projected to be used on offense. That’s way down from past years, but it follows the current trend of defense, defense and more defense. The last three Super Bowl champs (Tampa Bay, New England and Baltimore) all won with defense, and the NFL is a trend league. That’s why defensive players will overshadow their offensive counterparts on the first day of the 2003 draft.

QUARTERBACKS This year’s group of signal-callers could be better than the solid 2002 class that included David Carr, Joey Harrington and Patrick Ramsey. At the very least, the class of ’03 is much deeper and will present solid options for teams looking for bargains at the end of day one and into day two.

TOP-RATED QB: Carson Palmer (USC) - Palmer didn’t put up the same stats that Carr registered at pass-happy Fresno State, but the USC product finished his college career by winning college football's most storied piece of hardware -- the Heisman Trophy. At 6-foot-4 and 235 pounds, Palmer has the classic NFL QB build and the skills to match. He’s a level-headed player with excellent leadership qualities, and despite his sturdy build he’s no slug. Palmer possesses the athleticism to elude a pass rush and gain yards as a scrambler.

Still, he’s a pocket passer first and foremost. He has the arm strength and passing ability to make just about every throw on the gridiron. His mechanics are solid and he has a very good feel for the game. Projected draft position: first overall pick.

SECOND-BEST: Byron Leftwich (Marshall) - Leftwich is one of the most intriguing players in the draft. He's a better passer than Palmer, but lacks Palmer's athleticism. There are major concerns about the leg injury that Leftwich suffered during his senior season at Marshall. The injury has hampered his running ability and worsened his conditioning. The 6-foot-5, 240- pound Leftwich is built like a linebacker, but he is not Daunte Culpepper. He possesses the footwork to elude a pass rush, though Leftwich will never scramble like a Michael Vick or Donovan McNabb. From a pure passing standpoint, however, Leftwich is the best in this draft. He can squeeze the football into tight places, has a quick release and possesses great touch on short and long passes. Projected draft position: top 10.

THE NEXT LEVEL: Kyle Boller (Cal), Rex Grossman (Florida), Chris Simms (Texas) - The 6-foot-3, 235-pound Boller, who accumulated extensive starting experience in college, is a fast-rising player on many draft boards. The Cal product always had the talent to be a top prospect, but he didn’t realize that potential until his senior season. He displayed his great arm strength during Senior Bowl practices and sold scouts on his huge upside. Boller is one of the hottest players on the radar and could find himself going in the top 15 on draft day. At 6-foot-1 and less than 220 pounds, Grossman lacks ideal size for an NFL QB. However, he makes up for his lack of size with a strong and accurate arm. The former Gator has the tools to start in the NFL; Grossman should go late in the first round or early in round two. Simms, the son of Super Bowl XXI MVP Phil Simms, doesn’t have his dad’s poise, intangibles, or big-game flair. The southpaw Simms is bigger, faster and has more raw talent than his dad, but it remains to be seen if he’ll be able to put everything together on the next level. He was painfully inconsistent at Texas and threw interceptions in bunches. On the flip side, Simms has the talent to be the best QB in this draft.

SLEEPER: Jason Thomas (UNLV) - It would be interesting to see what Thomas could do on a full-time basis if he stayed healthy in college. He was plagued by ankle and shoulder injuries in college, which forced him to compromise his playing style. The 6-foot-3, 240-pound Thomas has a very strong arm, but his best attribute is his athleticism. He needs more reps and classroom time to work out the kinks, but the raw talent is there. A team looking for a developmental QB prospect should grab Thomas at some point on the second day of the draft.

RUNNING BACKS Teams in search of an impact halfback will simply have to fill the hole elsewhere. Due to McGahee’s injury, this draft lacks a legitimate first- rounder. It’s pretty rare to see a first round go by without the selection of a running back, but we could see that come April 26. However, there is some good depth that will provide value in the middle rounds.

TOP-RATED HB: Willis McGahee (Miami) - The football world was put on its ear when McGahee went down with a devastating knee injury in the final game of his two-year college career. McGahee, who is in his fourth month of rehabbing a torn ACL and MCL, remains the top talent in a shallow RB pool. Many players have come back from this type of injury, and the lack of star running backs in the class of ’03 keeps McGahee as the No. 1 prospect at his position despite the injury. He might not contribute all that much this season, but he most certainly will prove to be the best running back in this draft if he recovers and stays healthy. McGahee has Fred Taylor-like ability that shouldn’t be slighted because of the injury. Projected draft position: second round.

SECOND-BEST: Larry Johnson (Penn State) - There’s just something about Penn State running backs that makes L.J. a risky pick (see Blair Thomas, Ki-Jana Carter, et al). He’s big (6-1/228) and fast (4.44 40-yard dash) but will be hard-pressed to even come close to the numbers he put up in college. Johnson led the nation with 2,087 rushing yards last year as a senior, but scouts have found ways to knock his running style (too high) and lack of breakaway speed.

On the positive end, Johnson is a physical back and does a good job of running downhill. He might not be a LaDainian Tomlinson, but having a Dorsey Levens- type career might not be too bad. Projected draft position: second round.

THE NEXT LEVEL: Lee Suggs (Virginia Tech), Chris Brown (Colorado), Onterrio Smith (Oregon), Justin Fargas (USC) - Suggs (5-11/202) came back from reconstructive knee surgery two years ago to enjoy a strong senior season. He has a solid build and changes directions well. What really makes Suggs stand out is his ability to run inside. He shows the patience to allow his blockers to do their jobs and has a nice initial burst of speed to get through the line. Suggs will be a very solid second-round selection. The 6-foot-2, 220- pound Brown, who elected to enter the draft as a fourth-year junior, is built in the mold of an Eddie George. The former Colorado star is strong and runs the ball quite effectively between the tackles. He would be a top-40 pick if not for injury concerns. Brown’s upright running style leads to him absorbing a lot of hits. Due to McGahee’s injury and inability to run for scouts, Smith (5-10/220) takes over the role as the fastest back in the draft. The Oregon junior is a Tiki Barber-like running back with the receiving skills to match.

Fargas, who registered sub-4.4 40 times, improved his stock with a shocking display of athletic ability at the Combine. He’s an explosive player who has the ability to score just about every time he touches the football, and he doesn’t avoid contact.

SLEEPER: Kerry Carter (Stanford) - The 6-foot-2, 238-pound Carter is a punishing runner in the mold of a Mike Alstott or Anthony Thomas. Defenders cannot bring him down with arm tackles, as Carter manages to stay low, move the pile and get yards after contact. The lack of top speed knocks his stock down to a mid- to late-round prospect, but the team that winds up with Carter could get a major steal. If the knee injury that plagued him last season is behind him, Carter can earn himself a roster spot this summer and take things from there. He has the potential to be a very productive player, especially as a short-yardage specialist.

FULLBACKS As NFL teams continue to phase out the need for a fullback, scouts are looking for players with the ability to make a 53-man roster because of their ability to contribute in many different ways, including special teams. Unless the player is a devastating lead blocker like a Lorenzo Neal, these draft-eligible fullbacks need to be able to catch the ball and convert short-yardage situations in addition to showing adequate blocking skills.

TOP-RATED FB: Ovie Mughelli (Wake Forest) - Last year Najeh Davenport was in this spot because of his hybrid ability. Davenport, when he was healthy, contributed as a rookie with the Green Bay Packers. Mughelli is more of a blocking fullback than a hybrid like Davenport. The former Wake Forest standout is similar to a William Henderson without the receiving skills. The 6-foot-1, 255-pound Mughelli fits more in the mold of a traditional NFL fullback, which some teams no longer have a use for because of the emergence of H-backs and spread offenses. He will be valued by teams looking for a big, strong lead blocker. However, Mughelli lacks the ability to be an effective receiver or ball carrier. Projected draft position: fourth round.

SECOND-BEST: Casey Moore (Stanford) - The 6-foot-2, 240-pound Moore does a lot more on an overall basis than Mughelli. The ex-Stanford standout isn't on the same level as Mughelli, but he can more than hold his own as a lead blocker in a pro-style offense. In addition to leading the way for halfbacks, Moore is a very good and experienced short-yardage runner. As a receiver, he has soft hands and does a good job of catching the ball away from his body. Moore doesn’t really stand out in one specific area, but he has a desirable combination of skills for a fullback. Projected draft position: fourth round.

THE NEXT LEVEL: Andrew Pinnock (South Carolina), B.J. Askew (Michigan), Brandon Drumm (Colorado) - Pinnock (5-10/265) has a nice combination of skills that will fit well with the modern NFL offenses. As a ball carrier, he’s powerful, shows patience, gets good leverage and racks up yards after contact.

However, Pinnock needs some NFL seasoning when it comes to his blocking technique and stance. The ability is there for him to be a good blocker, but a few pro coaches need to bend his ear for a year or two before he stands out as a complete fullback. Askew (6-2/240) is a hybrid fullback, too. He’s a strong downhill runner and buries would-be tacklers who try to take him down with their arms. Askew, who has the perfect mentality to be a major contributor on special teams, would be best served in a single-back set like an Alstott. It remains to be seen if he’ll block well enough to play as an every-down fullback. Drumm (6-1/233) is a very good blocker and does well with swing passes out of the backfield. However, the Colorado product isn’t an adequate enough short-yardage runner to merit consideration in the first five rounds.

SLEEPER: Tom Lopienski (Notre Dame) - It might be hard to be a sleeper in the true sense of the term when you play at Notre Dame, but Lopienski isn’t rated as a top-10 player at his position. He’s a blue-collar worker who plays with great intensity and effort. He’s a sound blocker and gets excellent leverage and pop from his strong lower body. Lopienski also can be used as an effective short-yardage runner, but he’s not a very fluid receiver.

WIDE RECEIVERS We’ve seen some pretty good wide receivers drafted over the past few years.

Last year’s draft showcased Donte’ Stallworth, Josh Reed, Ashley Lelie, Antwaan Randle El and Antonio Bryant. The class of 2001 boasted Koren Robinson, Chris Chambers, Rod Gardner and David Terrell. However, the class of ’03 has a chance to add one or two potential Hall of Famers to the ranks. A lot has to happen between now and about 20 years from now when Canton might come calling for one of these young stars, but the cream of this year’s crop could be as good as we’ve seen in several years.

TOP-RATED WR: Charles Rogers (Michigan State) - Rogers has a chance to be a very special NFL receiver. He’s a phenomenal wideout with Terrell Owens- like ability. Rogers (6-2/202) is tall and physical like former Spartan Plaxico Burress, and he has a knack for making big plays. The Michigan State product is the complete package, but his maturity and concentration lapses have drawn comparisons to Randy Moss. Rogers will have a great advantage against opposing defensive backs on both short and long routes. He's a solid route runner and doesn't fear working the middle of the field, but he could improve his overall strength. Rogers' 4.4 speed makes him a threat to score a touchdown every time he touches the football. Some teams might be turned off by Rogers' attitude, but there are very few clubs that would pass on this world-class talent because of it. Projected draft position: second overall pick.

SECOND-BEST: Andre Johnson (Miami) - The 6-foot-2, 224-pound Johnson, who has clocked sub-4.3 40 times, is comparable to San Diego's David Boston. The former Hurricane has a size/speed combination that makes scouts drool. He's also a very athletic receiver with the ability to make a catch on just about any pass thrown his way. Johnson probably could have used another year at Miami to improve his route running, but his skills are undeniable. Both Rogers and Johnson are projected to be No. 1 receivers in the NFL. Johnson shouldn't slip out of the top 10 because he's truly an impact player. Projected draft position: top 10.

THE NEXT LEVEL: Kelley Washington (Tennessee), Taylor Jacobs (Florida), Bryant Johnson (Penn State), Anquan Boldin (Florida State) - The 6-foot-2, 223-pound Washington has the talent to rank among the best receivers in this draft. He’s big and fast in the mold of a Randy Moss, but unfortunately he also possesses some of the same negatives that plague Moss, namely his penchant for becoming a team distraction. Washington also had recent neck surgery and has a past knee injury on his unusual resume. Jacobs (6-0/205) is a solid and steady wideout who won’t disappoint the team that drafts him. The ex-Gator is a very crafty receiver with the ability to make tough catches. He could develop into a No. 1 receiver in the NFL. Penn State’s Bryant Johnson might turn out to be a better pro than former college teammate Larry Johnson. B.J. is built in the mold of an Amani Toomer. He has excellent leaping ability and usually comes down with jump balls. Johnson also will make a great effort on any pass throw in his area code. What kind of pro will Boldin turn out to be? That’s a million dollar question heading into the draft. He has the ability to be a very solid every-down receiver. Boldin (6-1/218) is a very good pass catcher with the ability to explode after the reception and score touchdowns. However, he could have problems with some of the more savvy and physical cornerbacks in the NFL, especially on the line of scrimmage.

SLEEPER: Justin Gage (Missouri) - The 6-foot-4, 217-pound Gage excelled off the gridiron as a former member of the Tigers’ basketball team. He has great athleticism, footwork and body control for such a big receiver. He does a fine job of using his size to his advantage, much like a basketball player would on the hardwood. Gage, who lacks burner speed, needs to refine his route running and stay aggressive in his first training camp. He has the ability to be a very productive wide receiver with some polish and experience.

TIGHT ENDS No Shockeys here this time around. The top TE prospects aren’t Pro Bowl material, and the group lacks the same kind of depth that we saw last year. Of course, last year’s draft was unusually deep since quality tight ends are hard to find. However, this crop ranks below average overall.

TOP-RATED TE: Jason Witten (Tennessee) - The 6-foot-6, 260-pound Witten is a huge tight end with a decent combination of skills. He has terrific hands and is a very fluid receiver with natural pass-catching ability. He’s almost like a massive wide receiver, and could find a role in the NFL like Indy’s Marcus Pollard. There are times when Witten gets caught up on the line of scrimmage.

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L.A. has won just five of its last 24 games. The club has also dropped two straight and four of its last five on the road in the series with the Grizzlies (one of the losses came when the Grizz were still in Vancouver).

Brand has averaged 19.3 points and 12.5 rebounds in four games since returning from the injured list. He had missed the previous 18 games with a lower leg stress fracture. Keyon Dooling has played in the last three after sitting out 20 for a strained arch in his left foot. Quentin Richardson missed five of the last seven games due to a bruised left patella tendon but returned to play 12 minutes last night and had two points with five rebounds.

But not all the injured Clippers are returning to action. Center Michael Olowokandi, who has been on the injured list for the past 32 contests, will be out for the rest of the season following knee surgery. The Clippers have amassed a total of 276 games lost due to injury or illness on the year, which surpassed the previous club record of 243, set in the 1994-95 season.

Andre Miller has hit 14 of his last 20 shots from the floor for 70 percent.

Maggette is second on the team in scoring at 16.8 points per game, and has made himself a viable candidate for comeback player of the year after last season’s 11.4 career-best mark.

Dennis Johnson is 5-14 as interim head coach since replacing Alvin Gentry on March 3rd.

The Clippers play four of their final five games on the road, including tonight's tilt with the Milwaukee Bucks. They return to Staples Center for one more game, the season finale against Portland next Wednesday.