Game of the Week
San Diego at Indianapolis, 1 p.m.
So now it's San Diego that picks up the slingshot.
The Chargers aren't given much of a chance here because a) the Colts haven't lost; b) Indianapolis is at home and c) the Chargers travel three time zones to get there.
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The Chargers can't afford to have LaDainian Tomlinson repeat his poor Week 14 performance. (AP) |
But be careful: San Diego wasn't given much of a chance last year, either, and the Chargers should have beaten Indianapolis there. Instead, their special teams cost them a victory, and they succumbed in overtime.
The Chargers are a good team; they're just not as good as Indianapolis. Of course, nobody is. The question is: Can San Diego be better than the Colts for one afternoon? It all depends on running back LaDainian Tomlinson.
If he's the back he was against Miami, forget it; if he's the back he was against Washington when he sliced, diced and spliced the Redskins for 184 yards, the Chargers might pull the upset.
And here's why: To beat the Colts you must minimize the damage done by Peyton Manning and Co. That means you either act like Chicago or Tampa on defense, or keep the ball from Manning. The Chargers will choose Door No. 2.
With Tomlinson, they have the ability to sustain drives and control the clock. That's critical when you have the league's 27th-ranked pass defense. Yes, San Diego's numero uno against the run, but that's because everyone -- including Miami's Gus Frerotte -- is cashing in frequent flyer miles against them.
When Manning faced them last year he threw for 383 yards, yet the Colts were lucky to win. Manning will get his yards; the Colts will get their points. But San Diego can pull the shocker if Tomlinson gains substantial yardage on first and second down.
The key against Indianapolis is avoiding third-and-long, especially on a turf that plays to the speed and quickness of defensive end Dwight Freeney. Few give the Chargers a chance, but they haven't lost a game by more than four points since Sept. 26, 2004. Plus, Manning doesn't have a 300-yard game at home this season.
Mano a mano: San Diego's cornerbacks vs. Marvin Harrison. The Colts wide receiver has scored in his past four games at the RCA Dome and has produced 100-yard efforts in two of the past three. The Chargers are vulnerable to the pass, and nobody makes bigger catches than Harrison. A week ago it was a 65-yard score. Two weeks before that it was an 80-yarder against Pittsburgh.
The key for San Diego is pressuring Manning into hurried throws. You're probably not going to reach him, but you can harass him. If the Chargers fail, count on Harrison and Reggie Wayne to make guest appearances in the end zone.
Injury update: The Colts probably will be without defensive end Robert Mathis (foot) and defensive tackle Corey Simon (foot). Coach Tony Dungy said the two would be held out "unless they miraculously recover and are 100 percent by Sunday," which means you can scratch both. But that's not all. Linebacker Cato June (knee, groin and ankle) is questionable, and now that the Colts clinched the home-field advantage Dungy can keep him on the bench, too.
San Diego tackle Roman Oben (foot) won't play again, and safety Bhawoh Jue (knee) might not, either. If Jue is sidelined, look for Clinton Hart to step in. Hart had a forced fumble and interception in his last start.
Something to consider: The Colts have scored in 31 consecutive quarters and have not trailed in 438 minutes and 16 seconds. Oh, yeah, they have also won 21 of their past 22 regular-season games.
| The Colts' offensive totals (game-by-game) |
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Three games I'd like to see
Tampa Bay at New England, Saturday, 1:30 p.m.
The Patriots are getting healthy, and they're getting better. But are they legit? We're about to find out.
I know they have won four of their past five, and their defense is beginning to pull together, but let's be honest here, folks: Those wins were over Miami, New Orleans, the Jets and Buffalo -- low-riders with a combined record of 16-36.
Bucs rookie running back Carnell Williams is for real, and, yes, quarterback Chris Simms is beginning to play with confidence. Of the two, make Simms the figure to watch here. He hasn't thrown an interception in four of his past five, and the New England secondary is so undermanned it was holding casting calls last month at the local Wal-Mart.
People keep talking about how none of the past five opponents has been all that successful running against the Patriots; how they average 66.2 yards a game and all that. But has anyone stopped to consider: Why would you run when there are holes in the secondary the size of Cambridge?
One problem here: The Bucs' game is not passing. They're ranked 25th, with only 13 TD passes. But that might have to change because of the opponent.
Besides, Simms was effective throwing against Carolina last week, particularly on third-and-long. He can hurt you when he has protection, and he has improved so much the Bucs are starting to think long term about life with him, not Brian Griese.
I know this is a difficult place to win, but Simms won at Atlanta. He won at New Orleans (well, Baton Rouge). And he won at Carolina. Weather wasn't an issue at any of those places, but it could be here. And that's one reason I like the Pats.
But there's another one, too: Given the choice of Bill Belichick or Chris Simms, I'll take Mr. Bill.
Something to consider: The temperature is expected to be in the mid-to-high 30s, which should satisfy the home team. The reason? New England's Tom Brady is 19-0 when it's 40 degrees or colder at kickoff. Now the question: Will Brady play? He was listed as questionable this week.
Kansas City at N.Y. Giants, Saturday, 5 p.m.
So now it's Kansas City that's desperate.
The Chiefs could have made life so much easier had they not blown that game at Dallas; now they're gasping for air, and I like good teams that are desperate ... except when it's the Chiefs playing in New York. They're 0-5 against the Giants here, and that's not good.
Neither is this: The Giants have won eight of their past nine at home; the Chiefs are 3-4 on the road this season. Nevertheless, they're only slim underdogs, and there's a reason: The Giants are hurting, with leading tackler Antonio Pierce sidelined by a high ankle sprain.
That means Nick Griesen slides into Pierce's middle linebacker position, and, no, no one is certain how that will work out. What they are sure of is that Griesen and his teammates must stop the Chiefs' Larry Johnson, and good luck there. Nobody else has. In six starts he has six 100-yard games, including a 211-yard effort against Houston.
The Giants could be without starting offensive tackles Luke Petitgout and Kareem McKenzie, too, which means Bob Whitfield and David Diehl are on call for a second straight week.
The key for Kansas City is how effective their tackles are at keeping defensive ends Michael Strahan and Osi Umenyiora off quarterback Trent Green. It's no coincidence that Green's play improved when left tackle Willie Roaf returned from hamstring injuries. Green has seven TD passes in his past four games and only four sacks -- including none in two of those contests.
The Giants, meanwhile, must avoid the mistakes that have become part of Eli Manning's game. He has twice as many interceptions (10) in his past five starts as he had in his first eight.
He better be careful here: Kansas City's 25 takeaways are fourth-best in the AFC and four more than the Chiefs had all last season.
Something to consider: Jeremy Shockey became the second-fastest tight end to 200 career catches by getting there in his 43rd career game. Can you name the fastest? Here's a hint: It's not the Chiefs' Tony Gonzalez. It was Hall of Famer Kellen Winslow, who did it in 39 games. It took Gonzalez 54 starts.
Pittsburgh at Minnesota, 1 p.m.
I'm not sure why, but I have a feeling Minnesota's victory tour is about to end.
Neither of these teams can afford to lose, but I'll defer to Pittsburgh here -- probably because I'll defer to Steelers' coach Bill Cowher. This is his time of year.
Since 2000 he's 18-6 in December and January, and the Steelers are coming off a decisive defeat of Chicago -- a club that has a one-game lead on Minnesota in the NFC North. Plus, the Steelers are 8-5, and that's significant because Minnesota has only one win over an opponent with a winning record -- the New York Giants.
The Steelers haven't won in a domed stadium since beating Atlanta in 1996, but they should control the ball against these guys -- despite what defensive tackle Pat Williams says of Jerome Bettis.
Everyone wonders how seriously quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is hurt, but he cleared a high hurdle last week, and the Bears' defense is better than Minnesota's. Way better ... except for one thing: interceptions. The Vikings are second to Cincinnati in that department, and Pittsburgh struggles when Roethlisberger makes mistakes.
Mistakes are what this game is all about. The team that doesn't make them wins, and Vikings quarterback Brad Johnson hasn't made them since taking over six games ago. He has two interceptions in seven appearances. His predecessor, Daunte Culpepper, had 12 in seven games. Uh-huh, I'd say that might have something to do with the Vikings' six-game winning binge.
Now along comes Pittsburgh, and what should make Johnson and the Vikings nervous is the Steelers' aggressive, gambling defense. Johnson has been sacked only four times the past three games, but none of those defenses ranks among the league's top 15.
The Steelers do -- they're eighth -- and they love to pressure the pocket, attack from all positions and keep opposing quarterbacks from completing more than 58 percent of their attempts. Just a hunch, but they unravel Johnson and the Vikings' hopes for a division title.
Something to consider: The Vikings have held opponents to under 20 points in five of their past six games. They allowed 20 or more in six of their first seven.
Crummy game of the week
Take your pick. One team can't run. The other can't protect the quarterback. And neither wins much, though score the Texans high on creativity.
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One week they blow a 10-point lead with 30 seconds left. The next they lose on a last-second field goal. Then they miss a field goal to take Tennessee into overtime.
Yeah, it's ugly, but it's entertaining. The Texans could have won four of their past five but didn't win any because that's what happens to bad teams. They find ways to lose.
Arizona could have beaten Washington last weekend, too, but coach Dennis Green made the mistake of turning to rookie running back J.J. Arrington when he needed two yards. The Cards have the league's worst rushing attack. Arrington has been a disappointment. Put them together, and what do you have? A horrible decision.
But those are the mistakes you commit when you're a bad team. Notice a theme here? At least the Cards won two straight on the road. That's more than Houston has won all year.
Something to consider: The race is on, with Houston's David Carr absorbing 61 sacks this season. The record is 76, set by -- who else? -- Carr in 2002.
Upset of the week
Dallas over Washington (-3), 4:15 p.m.
The road to the top of the NFC East goes through Washington.
The Redskins play the Cowboys this week and the Giants next, and if they win both they're back in this thing. Only one problem: They won't win both.
Quarterback Mark Brunell seems to have hit the wall, with two touchdown passes in his past four games, and that puts the pressure in a familiar place -- on a Washington defense that isn't as good as its 2004 predecessor.
Dallas is vastly improved on that side of the ball, and if Drew Bledsoe plays this week as he played last week, it's over. The Cowboys win by a touchdown. If he doesn't I still like them, basically because I trust their defense to force Brunell into critical errors.
If there's a concern for Dallas it's stopping Washington's Clinton Portis. The guy's hot, with at least 87 yards rushing in each of his past five games. Look for the Cowboys to stack the box and dare Brunell to beat them. I don't think he can.
Yeah, OK, Washington is 4-2 at home, but its two losses were its past two games there -- including one to Oakland. Ouch.
Something to consider: Figure this one to be close. Eight of the past nine games involving these two were decided by no more than seven points.
Where we will be
Pete will be in Indianapolis, advising Tony Dungy whom to start in next week's game at Seattle.
I will be at the Giants game, collecting Pro Bowl votes for Tiki Barber in section 305.
Worth noting
It's the last home game of the season in Detroit, and it will be the most eventful. I'm not talking about what happens between the Bengals and Lions but about what goes on in the stands. People in Detroit are steamed, and this time it has nothing to do with the Tigers' bullpen, Ron Artest or General Motors. It's with the Lions' losing. More to the point, it's with the Lions' losing since Matt Millen took over as team president.
One website devoted to team supporters is encouraging fans to dress in orange, one of the Bengals' team colors, while a local radio station is erecting a billboard critical of Millen. Another station is planning an "Angry Man March" to protest the Lions' downward spiral under Millen, and there are reports of fans planning rallies, wearing "Fire Millen" T-shirts and generally creating havoc inside and outside Ford Field.
I think you get the idea.
These people want another Ford recall, and with a 4:05 start and no plans to cut off alcohol sales it could be ugly. At the team's last home game several fans wrote "Fire Millen" on grocery bags and pizza boxes, and stadium security confiscated them -- including one sign carried by a spectator who was tackled in the seats. Now stadium officials say they will allow fans to carry signs as long as they're not obscene or block others' views. Good luck. And good night.
Three and out with ...
Miami running back Ronnie Brown
Q: You fumbled at the San Diego 1 last week. How long did you think about it?
Brown: "After it happened I was upset about it, then after the (replay) ruling on the field. But I had to let it go and put it off to get ready for the next series."
Q: Are coaches OK with you extending one arm to reach for the end zone, as you did there?
Brown: "That's pretty much the extra-effort stuff. When you're on the goal line you're just trying to get it in. That's the instinct with anybody. You just have to secure the ball a little better."
Q: Are you going to change the way you carry the ball?
Brown: "No. I don't think it's a lot of technical stuff. It's just the situation. You have to understand that if it's second down we have another down. So it's not as big of an emphasis trying to get it in -- especially having to put the ball out in a bad situation. It's pretty much about understanding the situation."
The lowdown on ...
New York Giants wide receiver Amani Toomer
(One scout's report)
"Outstanding size ... excellent long
speed ... has elite hands ... will drop some but can make spectacular
catches ... big, physical guy who presents mismatch problems for corners
... size allows him to put himself between defender and the ball ...
strength and size make him difficult to bring down ... tough to catch
once he gets long speed going ... not as good a blocker as he should be
... not real nifty ... takes awhile to change directions ... more suited
to post and corner routes than in-and-out routes ... if he's lost
anything maybe it's a half-step of speed ... improved with the addition
of Plaxico Burress ... Giants now have bookends at the position."
