AFC East preview: Don't believe Patriots on wane

For some reason, we love to pick apart sports dynasties, waiting for them to come unraveled.

It happens with all the great teams. Eventually, they stop being great, and as they slowly move from top, the vultures move in, tearing the carcass to shreds, bit by bit.

At 29, Tom Brady enters his prime with three Super Bowl titles. (AP)

This spring and summer it has become trendy to do that to the New England Patriots, searching for ways to convince oneself that they are no longer the same team that won three Super Bowls in the past five years, the team that won the AFC East in 2005.

Too much attrition, the doubters say. And they've had too many coaching losses the past couple of years.

Moreover, the Miami Dolphins are coming fast, winning their last six games in 2005, acquiring a franchise quarterback in Daunte Culpepper to go with their hot head coach Nick Saban.

This looked to be the right time to seize the AFC East from the Patriots.

It all sounds good, but it's not true.

The Patriots are still the team to beat. Pick them apart all you want, but underneath the surface losses remains a good football team. Talk about how they lost a great kicker (Adam Vinatieri), a leader (Willie McGinest), their second defensive coordinator (Eric Mangini) in the past two years, but this team is still talented.

And there are two reasons why they will win the division again -- Bill Belichick and Tom Brady, coach and quarterback.

Poll Who will win the AFC East?   8%  Buffalo Bills     5%  New York Jets     37%  Miami Dolphins     50%  New England Patriots     Total Votes: 23251

Belichick is the NFL's best coach, while Brady is right there with Peyton Manning to make that same claim at the quarterback position.

They are the reasons the Patriots are again the best in the AFC East. Belichick is a master at filling holes, and he'll do that just fine in 2006. Brady is a master at running the Patriots' quick-trigger offense.

Belichick has had his team re-commit to toughness and fundamentals, two areas he thought his 2005 team was lacking. That's the greatness of the coach, taking a playoff team and treating it like a high-school group meeting for its first day of practice. He said he can see the results.

"It's not dramatic differences," Belichick said. "It’s basically the same guys or the same team, but I do think that you can see, or at least I thought I saw, a little bit of an improvement in some of those areas.

"Then there are other things that we're probably not as good at as we've been in the past, or as we were at this point in time last year. I think the main thing is for the players to build their fundamental base. It's always that way.

"I'm not saying we’re reinventing the wheel here. It's always important for the players to work on their fundamentals in training camp and then as the season goes on, the game plans get bigger."

The Dolphins will be an improved team, which is why many think they're ready to push the Patriots. But they have too many issues; the offensive line is so-so, the second-receiver spot isn't great, the defense has age in the front seven and the secondary is really young.

The Buffalo Bills have quarterback issues, and that's never a good thing, and the New York Jets are two years away from competing for a division title.

That brings us back to the Patriots. They might not be good enough to win it all in 2006, but they're certainly good enough to win their division.

Pick them apart all you want. The Patriots, as we've come to know them the past five years, aren't dead just yet.

A look at the AFC East in predicted order of finish:

New England Patriots

Significant additions: WR Reche Caldwell, S Tebucky Jones, CB Eric Warfield, RB Laurence Maroney, WR Chad Jackson.

Significant subtractions: DE Willie McGinest, TE Christian Fauria, WR David Givens, K Adam Vinatieri, LB Chad Brown.

Biggest offseason move: Letting Vinatieri go in free agency is a risky move. But the Patriots didn't want to overpay to keep him. They will go with either veteran Martin Gramatica or rookie Stephen Gratkowski.

Will go to the playoffs if: Brady stays on his feet and Belichick doesn't morph into Chuck Fairbanks.

Rookie to watch: Maroney. He will push Corey Dillon for time right away and will eventually be the starter. This kid has star ability.

Overview: This is still a quality team. As long as they have Brady and Belichick, they will be the favorites in their division. They did lose some players in the offseason, but nothing that isn't replaceable. Belichick will make sure of that.

Miami Dolphins

Significant additions: QB Daunte Culpepper, CB Will Allen, T L.J. Shelton, LB Sedrick Hodge, CB Renaldo Hill, S Jason Allen.

Significant subtractions: QB Gus Frerotte, CB Sam Madison, RB Ricky Williams.

Biggest offseason move: Getting Culpepper in a trade from Minnesota was a good move. He has made great progress from his blown-out knee, and should be ready for the open of the season. He gives this team a legitimate passer for the first time since Dan Marino retired.

Will go to the playoffs if: Culpepper can liven up the passing game. They have to be able to spread out defenses and allow second-year back Ronnie Brown room to run.

Rookie to watch: First-round pick Jason Allen will help alleviate coverage problems in the secondary. He can run and he's also a solid tackler.

Overview: The Dolphins won their last six games in 2005, and then added Culpepper. Saban is building something special in South Florida and he's the right guy for the job. If they can keep Culpepper on the field, the Dolphins could push for a playoff spot. But they're not ready to push the Pats.

Buffalo Bills

Significant additions: WR Peerless Price, C Melvin Fowler, DT Larry Tripplett, S Donte Whitner, DT John McGargo.

Significant subtractions: DT Sam Adams, WR Eric Moulds, S Lawyer Milloy, T Mike Williams.

Biggest offseason move: The Bills forced out coach Mike Mularkey and hired former Bears coach Dick Jauron. If Jauron is to be successful, he has to have a better offense than the one he coached with the Bears.

Will go to the playoffs if: J.P. Losman turns into Jim Kelly. That's not likely.

Rookie to watch: Whitner. He is an athletic safety who will show up in a big way in the Bills defense, which was already pretty good.

Overview: The Bills have a really good defense and Jauron is a defensive-minded coach. But this team will go only as far as Losman or whoever starts at quarterback will take it. Running back Willis McGahee will have to play better than he did in 2005 to help take pressure off the quarterback. Even so, this is an 8-8 team at best.

New York Jets

Significant additions: CB Andre Dyson, QB Patrick Ramsey, DE Kimo von Oelhoffen, C Nick Mangold, T D'Brickashaw Ferguson, QB Kellen Clemens.

Significant subtractions: DE John Abraham, T Jason Fabini, C Kevin Mawae, CB Ty Law.

Biggest offseason move: Hiring former Patriots assistant Eric Mangini to take over as head coach. Is he the next Belichick?

Will go to the playoffs if: Joe Namath comes back in his prime and we really will have the Miracle at the Meadowlands.

Rookie to watch: Left tackle D'Brickashaw Ferguson was the fourth player taken in the draft, a franchise tackle to build a line around. He is athletic and fast, but is he strong enough at the point of attack?

Overview: The rebuilding of this team will take time. Patience is a must for Jets fans. This team is young and will need to get some great efforts from some young players to even get to six victories. Then there's the questions about running back Curtis Martin. Is he done? If he is, the Jets don't have much behind him. Pennington is the starter for now, but for how long?