Pete Prisco
CBS SportsLine.com Senior Writer

Prisco plays it safe with predictions -- are you happy now?

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No more outlandish picks.

I tried that last year when I picked the Oakland Raiders to win it all. We know how that turned out. And you guys never let me forget it as they went belly-up.

All season long, it was Raiders this and Raiders that, mostly in a nasty tone.

Prisco has Randy Moss and the Raiders in his rear-view mirror. (AP)  
Prisco has Randy Moss and the Raiders in his rear-view mirror. (AP)  
So instead of going for the home run this year --- the pick that will make you look like a genius if it comes in -- I'm going with the chalk, the favorites, those teams that most think will be in the Super hunt.

My pick to win the AFC is the Indianapolis Colts. My pick to win the NFC is the Carolina Panthers.

Boring? You bet. But want to bet there's a better chance of those two coming in than that lame-brain Raiders pick from 2005?

The Colts and Panthers will be in Miami to play for it all. Will Peyton Manning finally get the ring? Or will it be Steve Smith and the Panthers?

My choice is the Colts. They put their demons behind them.

And so will I, pushing that Raiders pick way behind in my rear-view mirror.

Can't you guys do the same?

Final standings

  • AFC East: Patriots, Dolphins, Bills, Jets
  • AFC North: Steelers, Bengals, Ravens, Browns
  • AFC South: Colts, Jaguars, Texans, Titans
  • AFC West: Broncos, Chargers, Chiefs, Raiders

  • NFC East: Cowboys, Giants, Eagles, Redskins
  • NFC North: Bears, Vikings, Lions, Packers
  • NFC South: Panthers, Bucs, Falcons, Saints
  • NFC West: Cardinals, Seahawks, Rams, 49ers

  • AFC wild cards: Jaguars, Bengals
  • NFC wild cards: Seahawks, Bucs

AFC playoffs

  • Wild card: Jaguars over Broncos; Steelers over Bengals
  • Division: Colts over Jaguars; Patriots over Steelers
  • Championship: Colts over Patriots

NFC playoffs

  • Wild card: Cowboys over Bucs; Cardinals over Seahawks
  • Division: Panthers over Cardinals; Cowboys over Bears
  • Championship: Panthers over Cowboys

Super Bowl XLI

  • Colts over Panthers

Individual awards

MVP: Since the pick is for the Colts to win the Super Bowl, the MVP is Peyton Manning. He may never repeat the season he had in 2004, but this year he will come close.

It's long overdue and that's why Tony Dungy will be the top coach. (AP)  
It's long overdue and that's why Tony Dungy will be the top coach. (AP)  
Offensive Player of the Year: St. Louis Rams running back Steven Jackson will put up some amazing numbers this year under new coach Scott Linehan. Look for Jackson to lead the league in rushing, becoming this season's Larry Johnson.

Defensive Player of the Year: Broncos corner Champ Bailey is the best in the NFL at playing one of the toughest positions on the field. He will again be a big reason why the Denver defense plays at a high level.

Coach of the Year: All his team does is win, but the Colts' Tony Dungy never wins any of these awards. That's not right. This is the year he finally gets one as his team gets to the Super Bowl.

Offensive Rookie of the Year: Colts running back Joseph Addai isn't opening the season as the starter, but he will close it that way. This kid is perfect for what Indianapolis wants to do.

Defensive Rookie of the Year: Lions linebacker Ernie Sims has already opened a lot of eyes. He is fast and aggressive and plays much bigger than his frame (5-11, 230 pounds) would make you think.

Comeback Player of the Year: Terrell Owens. He will put up some big numbers for the Cowboys.

Most improved: Jaguars wide receiver Matt Jones made some plays as a rookie last season, but he was thinking too much instead of reacting. Now he's reacting. He will be an impact player.

Step-back player: Shaun Alexander. He got the money, so he's content. He also lost his left guard, the best in football. Watch out, fantasy players. Alexander might be a risk.

Step-back team: It's the Washington Redskins. Despite spending freely again in the offseason, this team just doesn't look right. OK, so it was the preseason. We get it. But playing in a tough division doesn't help, either.

Team on the rise: It's the Arizona Cardinals. Yeah, yeah, I know. They were the pick last year. Well, they had a lot of injuries that slowed them. This season, a lot of their good, young players are better.

Best free-agent pickup: Owens. So what if he comes with the baggage? He's a player. And he plays hard all the time. The Cowboys will love having him.

Worst free-agent pickup: Ty Law is too old to play corner at a high level. The Chiefs will find that out early this season, maybe even in the opener against the Bengals.

About Pete Prisco

author photoPete Prisco has covered the NFL for three decades, including working as a beat reporter in Jacksonville for the Jaguars. He hosted his own radio show for seven years, and is the self-anointed star of CBS Sports' show, Eye on Football. When he's not watching game tape, you can find Pete on Twitter or dreaming of an Arizona State national title in football.
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