Game of the Week
Seattle at Chicago, 8:15 p.m. | 
The line: Chicago by 3½
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| Mike Holmgren will likely attack the Bears with four wideouts. (Getty Images) |
The story: A preview of the NFC Championship Game? Maybe. Seattle plays without Alexander, the first time he has missed a game in his seven-year career. That should give Chicago the edge, right? Not so fast. For one thing, Alexander wasn't exactly himself this season -- averaging 2.9 yards a carry with two scores. I don't know if that's the result of not having guard Steve Hutchinson, but Alexander just wasn't the same guy who over the past five years averaged 1,500 yards and 19.6 touchdowns a season. Second, the Seahawks are armed and dangerous. Remember, they acquired wide receiver Deion Branch and now have a group of wide receivers that coach Mike Holmgren likes so much he terms it "The Fantastic Four." But, third, and this is where it gets interesting, remember what happened to Chicago in last year's playoffs when Carolina lost running back DeShaun Foster? It was pummeled by Steve Smith on long, short and intermediate passes. The Bears couldn't stop him. So how are they going to handle four outside threats?
The problem for Seattle is that it just isn't that easy. Without a running threat, defenses will rush four and drop everyone else into coverage -- making it difficult to find an open target before the quarterback is hammered. And Matt Hasselbeck was hammered his first two starts, sacked eight times and hit on another 12 occasions. Chicago's front four is one of the best in the business; the Bears are one of seven clubs with double-digit sacks, so Hasselbeck should be wary. The key to what he does may be left guard Chris Spencer, starting in place of the injured Floyd Womack. It's not just that Spencer, normally a center, is playing out of position; it's that he faces defensive tackle Tommie Harris, who leads the Bears with three sacks. Uh-oh.
| Comparison based on 2006 stats |
The bottom line: Over the past two years, Hasselbeck has the league's third-best passer rating on the road. It's 102.7, putting him behind only Carson Palmer and Peyton Manning. Hasselbeck also won six of his past seven road starts, with eight TDs and no interceptions.
Three games I'd like to see
San Diego at Baltimore, 1 p.m. |
The Chargers are unbeaten. Baltimore is unbeaten. The Chargers have the league's top-ranked defense, Baltimore is next. Baltimore is numero uno against the run. San Diego is fifth. Could these clubs be any closer? Yes. The combined record of the teams these two have bested? Try 0-13. That means we really don't know how good either is. Sure, we suspect both are decent and might be playoff worthy, but we don't know for sure. Well, this is where we find out. Baltimore will follow Philadelphia's lead from a year ago when it shut down LaDainian Tomlinson, holding him to 7 yards on 17 carries and forced the Chargers to beat it with the pass. It didn't happen. But the Ravens might not be as fortunate.
They can be beaten through the air, and Cleveland offered a demonstration a week ago when Charlie Frye threw for 298 yards -- and that was after he was sacked seven times. Baltimore can collapse the pocket, with a league-high 16 sacks, but if you protect your quarterback -- and San Diego's Philip Rivers hasn't been sacked -- there are open targets. Look for a big afternoon for tight end Antonio Gates. Oh, there's one more thing to consider here: San Diego is rested, coming off a bye. Baltimore just escaped Cleveland. Advantage: San Diego.
Something to consider: LaDainian Tomlinson, beware. The Baltimore Ravens are brutal against the run, allowing only two gains of more than seven yards. Of the 58 carries against them 22 have been for no gain or negative yardage.
New Orleans at Carolina, 1 p.m. |
We always thought this game would showcase the best of the NFC South, and it does. Only the best is New Orleans, not Carolina. The Panthers were supposed to be a Super Bowl contender, but they're a field goal from being 0-3. Disappointing? You bet. Disastrous? Nope. They were 1-2 a year ago, too, and wound up in the conference championship game. Now they're back home, with Steve Smith over his hamstring woes and with a chance to close the gap between them and the Saints. It's hard to not like Carolina here, especially after the emotional exercise New Orleans went through Monday. But the Saints are no pushovers. In fact, they're looking for their third consecutive victory in Charlotte. Give them credit.
They're surprisingly better on defense than anticipated, shutting down Atlanta's running game and keeping the Falcons out of the end zone. They could shut down Carolina's ground game, too, but all that means is that they'll have to contend with a passing attack that features Smith and Keyshawn Johnson -- and I'm not sure they do it. The concern for the Panthers is not their offense but their defense -- particularly their defense against the run. It's dreadful, with opponents averaging 4.3 yards a carry. Look for the Saints to hammer the middle of the line with Deuce McAllister and to probe the Panthers perimeter with rookie Reggie Bush. New Orleans wants to control the line of scrimmage; otherwise it must contend with defensive end Julius Peppers, who is off to the best start of his six-year career.
Something to consider: There's nothing wrong with Carolina's defense when it matters most. The club ranks third in third-down conversions, shutting down opponents on 75 percent of third downs.
New England at Cincinnati, 4:15 p.m. |
I guess sooner or later we have to find out if the Patriots lost their swagger. So it might as well be sooner. Normally, I'd like New England here -- for no other reason than it hasn't lost consecutive games since Dec. 12, 2002. But there is nothing normal about this club. I saw the Patriots overwhelmed by Denver last weekend, and they've got problems. Just read Tom Brady's body language. You might act that way, too, if your team traded in David Givens and Deion Branch for Doug Gabriel and Reche Caldwell. The Pats should be able to run on Cincinnati, with Brady advised to throw only when he must. That's because the Bengals thrive on mistakes; Cincinnati's D has 37 interceptions over the past 19 regular-season games. But there's another benefit to featuring Laurence Maroney and Corey Dillon, which is to slow down the Cincinnati offense. If Jake Plummer is able to produce big plays on these guys, imagine what happens when Carson Palmer gets his hands on the football. I see this game as more important to New England than Cincinnati, which means the Patriots might play with passion. The problem is that its roster is not what it once was, and emotion can carry you just so far. Once I thought having Brady meant the Pats were bullet proof; then I saw him flounder against Denver. It sure helps to have a supporting cast.
Something to consider: Over their first 32 starts, Palmer and Brady have nearly identical statistics. Brady was 21-11 with 49 TDs and an 84.8 passer rating; Palmer is 20-12 with 56 touchdowns and a 90.4 passer rating.
Crummy game of the week
Cleveland at Oakland, 4:15 p.m. |
Oakland can't score, and Cleveland can. That, in a nutshell, is what this game is all about. The Raiders defense isn't half bad, but its offense looks as if it's working with a game plan from the Home Shopping Network. I mean, two field goals in 26 series? C'mon, guys, the Black Hole was supposed to be in the stands, not your playbook. I'm sorry, but until or unless Oakland demonstrates that it knows where the end zone is, it's hard to find a reason to believe in these guys.
Something to consider: Cleveland has won five of the past six against the Raiders, including four of the past five on the road.
Upset of the week
Seattle over Chicago. Maybe it's because I have an indelible memory of last year's NFC playoff game when Carolina's Steve Smith opened with a 58-yard touchdown catch and put 218 yards on the Bears that afternoon. Or maybe it's because I think the Seahawks defense could flummox Rex Grossman. Whatever it is, I believe Mike Holmgren will find holes in the Chicago secondary with his four wide receivers. The problem will be finding time for Matt Hasselbeck to deliver the ball, but the Seahawks just completed a game where he wasn't sacked once ... and wound up throwing five touchdown passes.
Five guys I'd like to be
1. Andy Reid, coach, Philadelphia: Since the NFL realigned itself in 2002, he's 7-0 against the NFC North.
2. Kurt Warner, QB, Arizona: I know he sees Matt Leinart closing fast in his rear-view mirror, but he might be able to hold him off another week. Why? Well, look at what he's done in six career starts against the Falcons: He's 6-0 and completed 69 percent of his passes for 1,657 yards with 18 touchdowns, five interceptions and a 126.3 passer rating.
3. Shawne Merriman, LB, San Diego: First of all, he's going home. Second, he's murder on the road, with five sacks in his past three games away from San Diego.
4. Chad Pennington, QB, New York Jets: In his last start against Indianapolis, he had a perfect passer rating. In his two career starts against the Colts, he has six touchdowns, no interceptions, a completion percentage of 76.9 and a passer rating of 152.9.
5. Trevor Pryce, DE, Baltimore: When he played in Denver he always seemed to excel against San Diego. In 16 games against the Chargers, Pryce had nine sacks, including a career-high three in one contest, with one forced fumble and one fumble recovery. Now the good news: The Broncos were 13-3.
He said it
Cincinnati wide receiver Chad Johnson must be feeling better. He went out of his way this week to torch New England's defensive backs in a conference call with reporters covering the Patriots. Take it away, Chad. "You tell 37 (Rodney Harrison) that I'm going to knock his helmet off," said Johnson. "You tell Asante (Samuel) to make sure he has help for all four quarters or his 22 is going to be a 55. Isn't that what it looks like upside down? You tell Eugene Wilson if he hits me coming across the middle, we'll probably have to fight and get thrown out of the game right there on the spot. The last hit I'm going to take this year was in Cleveland. Anyone that hits me like that again is going down."
Where we will be
Pete will be in Atlanta, prepping Matt Leinart for his eventual start.
I'll be in Baltimore to ask Ray Lewis about T.O. Then I'm ducking.
Mike Freeman will be in Chicago to ask Lovie Smith what's up with Cedric Benson. Then he's ducking, too.
