This is supposed to be the time when NHL general managers get to play real life Fantasy hockey.
The trade deadline has become their version of madness in March, a frenzied focal point of the schedule with a greater cache than it probably deserves in the post-lockout NHL because the salary cap has effectively eliminated making deals at other points of the season. More important, it also marks the unofficial start of the home stretch, creating a last-chance mentality that compels most GMs to get involved and often to act in ways they might not in more subdued circumstances.
"It's a day full of very poor decision making," Toronto Maple Leafs GM Brian Burke said. "But we all get sucked in."
|
|
| Jay Bouwmeester, who will be an unrestricted free agent, could be on the trading block. (Getty Images) |
"I think there are a number of factors that may be playing into a quiet deadline," Vancouver Canucks GM Mike Gillis said.
Chief among them is the lack of clarity in the playoff races. With only six weeks left in the schedule, there are still 25 of the 30 teams in the playoff picture, including everybody in the Western Conference. All their GMs are talking a good game about looking to make some sort of upgrade, but with so little separation in the standings, no one is ready to throw in the towel just yet. And that makes it nearly impossible to distinguish the sellers from the buyers.
"You look at the West and you have San Jose, you have Detroit that are just sitting up there all by themselves then you go to Calgary and Chicago, who look pretty good," St. Louis Blues president John Davidson said. "After that, man, there's a ton of teams that -- who knows? There's 20-some games left. This could go in any direction for any of these teams. It's very difficult."
Current economic conditions aren't helping break the logjam. The NHL's salary cap is expected to remain around its current $56 million level next season, largely because much of the ticket and sponsorship revenue it will be based on was secured before the economy began heading south. But the 2010-11 season is a question mark, although few doubt the cap level will decline along with revenues. That means teams are reluctant to take on expensive contracts, even for top-tier talent, if those deals could end up tying their hands in a couple of years.
So while Columbus GM Scott Howson admits to seeking a high-end center to help his team get to the playoffs for the first time, he understands he might not be able to afford one because young foundation players like Rick Nash, Steve Mason and Jakub Voracek will all be due big raises in the next few seasons. And he's not the only one in that situation.
"Teams are wary of '10-11," Burke said. "Taking on contracts that carry into that season, speaking for our team only, that doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me unless it's a player that we're absolutely confident can help our team at that point in time. That to me is going to be the trip wire in this trade deadline."
In theory, that should mean the most active part of the market over the next few days will be at the rental end with pending unrestricted free agents like Bouwmeester, who has shown little inclination to re-sign with Florida, being the prime targets. But the asking price is high -- the Panthers want a roster player, a prospect and a first-round draft pick for someone who might not stay with the team he's traded to beyond this season -- and with the example of Marian Hossa bolting Pittsburgh after last season still fresh in everyone's mind, that's a big risk.
"In the salary-cap system, you have your windows come and go fairly quickly but as much as you want to seize the opportunity, you have to be patient and not pick apart the foundation you have," Boston GM Peter Chiarelli said. "We went through that in Ottawa, where we thought we were getting the best player at the deadline (Peter Bondra in 2004), but it just didn't fit in the mix of things.
"You can't just say let's add a player, you have to be very careful because there's more than just what the player brings on the ice to look at. You may take away from roles of other players on and off the ice and that may be detrimental. You have to be sensitive to that."
And to the reality of the NHL right now.
"There are four or five good teams in the league and the rest of us are all the same, so I'd say we're all switchers now," Minnesota GM Doug Riseborough said. "There's not a lot people can do."
