Pitching Forecaster: Rotation roulette is upon us
You have gone through a full season now, save for this final week-plus ahead of us. We would like to hear where you stand on the CBSSports.com standard scoring system again.
Can. Open. Worms.
The hate-mail had died down after the early season shock, but how much did it grow on you? How much did you give up on it? How much do you actually not want it to change again now?
We cannot make an guarantees, but we want to hear from you. This could be your last chance to affect our system for 2010.
We will be making tweaks, most likely. Nothing is ever perfect. But what tweak is most necessary?
The first inclination here would be to drop the earned runs penalty from minus-2 to minus-1. Also, perhaps raise the value of the save some and not penalize blown saves, because earned runs, walks and hits are already penalized.
One thing we might be able to do is limit the number of starts in a given week. That is a complex thing to do.
And, yes, we know the number of starts can ruin a team in Fantasy Head-to-Head playoffs. Yours truly lived it first-hand last week.
E-mail us your scoring system ideas to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com.
Finally, this is the last team-by-team Pitching Forecaster of the season. Notice the uncertainty with just about every team's two-start pitcher(s). It is not our fault, it is there's. It means you have to be riding the arms you trust the most, regardless of the number of projected starts in Fantasy Week 26 (Sept. 28-Oct. 4).
Arizona Diamondbacks
| | |||
| Pitcher | TM | Own % | Start % |
| Justin Verlander | DET | 97 | 89 |
| Chris Carpenter | STL | 96 | 84 |
| Jair Jurrjens | ATL | 96 | 80 |
| John Danks | CHW | 94 | 72 |
| Scott Kazmir | ANA | 95 | 71 |
| Jason Marquis | COL | 86 | 66 |
| Scott Feldman | TEX | 85 | 66 |
| Ervin Santana | ANA | 90 | 61 |
| Randy Wells | CHC | 79 | 57 |
| Hiroki Kuroda | LA | 76 | 49 |
| Jeff Niemann | TB | 76 | 49 |
| Rick Porcello | DET | 72 | 45 |
| Jonathan O. Sanchez | SF | 72 | 41 |
| Tommy Hunter | TEX | 65 | 38 |
| Nick Blackburn | MIN | 57 | 35 |
| Tim Hudson | ATL | 64 | 33 |
| Doug Davis | ARI | 48 | 30 |
| John Smoltz | STL | 62 | 29 |
| Homer Bailey | CIN | 42 | 25 |
| Brian Duensing | MIN | 35 | 23 |
| Wade Davis | TB | 30 | 15 |
| Scott Richmond | TOR | 34 | 13 |
| Anibal Sanchez | FLA | 29 | 13 |
| Jeremy Guthrie | BAL | 27 | 12 |
| Aaron Laffey | CLE | 28 | 11 |
| Brandon Morrow | SEA | 28 | 11 |
| Bud Norris | HOU | 27 | 11 |
| Chad Gaudin | NYY | 22 | 10 |
| Jamie Moyer | PHI | 20 | 9 |
| Luke Hochevar | KC | 23 | 9 |
| Paul Byrd | BOS | 7 | 3 |
| Charlie Morton | PIT | 4 | 2 |
| Kevin Hart | PIT | 4 | 2 |
| Nelson Figueroa | NYM | 2 | 1 |
| J.D. Martin | WAS | 2 | 1 |
| Mark Hendrickson | BAL | 1 | 1 |
| Chris Narveson | MIL | 0 | 0 |
| Ross Detwiler | WAS | 2 | 0 |
| Yorman Bazardo | HOU | 0 | 0 |
Week 26 two-starter(s): Davis. He was moved back a day to be a two-start pitcher for the final Fantasy Week 26 (Sept. 28-Oct. 4). Consider him a sleeper for deeper leagues.
Starters on the DL: Brandon Webb (shoulder, out for the season).
Atlanta Braves
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Jurrjens. The Braves might be wary of his innings total and could spot Kris Medlen or Kenshin Kawakami on the season's final day. Jurrjens is a must-start, one-starter regardless.
Starters on the DL: Jorge Campillo (shoulder, out for the season).
Baltimore Orioles
Week 26 two-starter(s): Hendrickson. He is a high-risk option even in the deepest of AL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: Brad Bergesen (leg, out for the season), Rich J. Hill (shoulder, out for the season) and Alfredo Simon (elbow, out for the season).
Boston Red Sox
Week 26 two-starter(s): Byrd or Beckett. We tend to doubt Beckett would pitch on the season's final day, unless the Red Sox are playing for the AL East division title. Beckett is a must-start one-starter regardless. Byrd is a questionable option, especially since he could be removed from the current six-man rotation after his bad start Tuesday. Buchholz could move up and start twice before the end of the season. He is also a must-start, one-start pitcher -- regardless -- in the final week.
Starters on the DL: None.
Chicago Cubs
- Carlos Zambrano
- Rich Harden (out, shoulder)
- Ted Lilly (shoulder, expected to return Sept. 27)
- Ryan Dempster
- Randy Wells
- Tom Gorzelanny
- Jeff Samardzija
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Wells. The Cubs rotation looks like it could be as many as seven men at this point, which makes next week's six-game week a mess, too. Wells is a questionable option.
Starters on the DL: None.
Chicago White Sox
- Jake Peavy
- Mark Buehrle
- John Danks
- Gavin Floyd (hip, might return Sept. 26) or Daniel Hudson
- Freddy An. Garcia
Week 26 two-starter(s): Danks. He is coming off a bad start, but we would still consider him advisable in the final week.
Starters on the DL: None.
Cincinnati Reds
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Bailey. The Reds might choose to limit the young arm's innings, so he is a bit more questionable vs. the Cardinals than he would be otherwise. He might not start on the season's final day.
Starters on the DL: Aaron Harang (appendectomy, out for the season) and Edinson Volquez (elbow, out for the season).
Cleveland Indians
Week 26 two-starter(s): Laffey or Masterson. They have a six-man rotation, but if they go to five, they both could be two-start pitchers. They will questionable-to-risky ones.
Starters on the DL: Jake Westbrook (elbow, out for the season) and Anthony Reyes (elbow, out for the season).
Colorado Rockies
- Ubaldo Jimenez
- Jason Marquis
- Jorge De La Rosa
- Jason Hammel
- Aaron Cook (shoulder, expected to return Sept. 25)
Week 26 two-starter(s): Marquis. He is an advisable option in deeper leagues, but home vs. the Brewers and at the Dodgers on the final day of the season are tough matchups.
Starters on the DL: Aaron Cook (shoulder, expected to return Sept. 25), Jeff Francis (shoulder, out for the season), Greg Smith (shoulder, out for the season), Greg Reynolds (shoulder, out for the season).
Detroit Tigers
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Porcello and Verlander. Porcello could be limited on his innings, while Verlander would be held out for the first game of the playoffs if the Tigers have clinched. Consider them advisable options regardless.
Starters on the DL: Dontrelle Willis (hip, out for the season).
Florida Marlins
Week 26 two-starter(s): Sanchez. He is an advisable option after his dominance of the Phillies on Tuesday night.
Starters on the DL: None.
Houston Astros
Week 26 two-starter(s): Bazardo and perhaps Norris. Two young arms who could be held out of their second starts. Consider them questionable options.
Starters on the DL: Mike Hampton (shoulder, out for the season). Roy Oswalt (back) has also been shut down for the season.
Kansas City Royals
- Zack Greinke
- Kyle Davies (doubtful, oblique)
- Luke Hochevar
- Robinson Tejeda
- Lenny DiNardo
Week 26 two-starter(s): Hochevar or Davies. Davies might not make another start this season and Hochevar could be skipped on the season's final day due to an innings limit. They are questionable options even in AL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: None.
Los Angeles Angels
Week 26 two-starter(s): Santana and Kazmir. The Angels might alter their rotation to line up their postseason rotation, which could affect Kazmir more than Santana. Both these guys are advisable options with or without the second start.
Starters on the DL: Dustin Moseley (elbow, out for the season) and Kelvim Escobar (shoulder, out for the season).
Los Angeles Dodgers
- Chad Billingsley
- Clayton Kershaw (shoulder, expected to return Sept. 27)
- Randy Wolf
- Hiroki Kuroda
- Jon Garland
- Vicente Padilla
Week 26 two-starter(s): Kuroda or Billingsley. The Dodgers decided Wolf will be their No. 1 starter in Round 1 of the postseason, so Kuroda or Billingsley could make a couple of starts, including on the season's final day -- although a six-man rotation could make for no Dodgers two-start pitcher. Kuroda looks like a must-start as a one- or two-start pitcher at this point. He is 3-1 with a 2.16 ERA since his return from the DL.
Starters on the DL: Eric Milton (shoulder, out for the season).
Milwaukee Brewers
- Braden Looper
- Jeff Suppan
- Dave Bush
- Chris Narveson
- Manny Parra (out, might return Sept. 25) or Josh J. Butler
Week 26 two-starter(s): Narveson or Suppan. Suppan could be a sleeper, but the Brewers would have to skip Narveson next Tuesday for it to happen. Narveson is a high-risk option.
Starters on the DL: None. Yovani Gallardo has been shut down for reaching his innings limit.
Minnesota Twins
Week 26 two-starter(s): Blackburn and Duensing. Blackburn is an advisable option in deeper leagues, while Duensing is a sleeper with a quality start Wednesday at the White Sox.
Starters on the DL: Boof Bonser (shoulder, out for the season) and Kevin Slowey (wrist, out for the season).
New York Mets
Week 26 two-starter(s): Figueroa or Pelfrey. The Mets could line up Pelfrey for an extra start if they choose to skip Figueroa on the season's final day. Pelfrey is a nice sleeper, while Figueroa figures to remain high-risk.
Starters on the DL: Johan Santana (elbow, out for the season), Oliver Perez (knee, out for the season), Jonathon Niese (hamstring, out for the season) and Fernando Nieve (quadriceps, out for the season).
New York Yankees
Week 26 two-starter(s): Gaudin or Burnett. The Yankees could choose to start Burnett over Gaudin on the season's final day. Gaudin is a nice sleeper, while Burnett is an advisable option regardless of the second start.
Starters on the DL: Chien-Ming Wang (shoulder, out for the season).
Oakland Athletics
Week 26 two-starter(s): None. If the A's stick with a six-man rotation, Cahill will make his final start of the season Tuesday. Cahill is a nice sleeper, though, at Seattle.
Starters on the DL: Dallas Braden (foot, out for the season), Justin Duchscherer (elbow/depression, out for the season) and Josh Outman (elbow, out for the season). Vin Mazzaro (shoulder) and Brett D. Tomko (arm) have also been shut down.
Philadelphia Phillies
- Cole Hamels
- Cliff Lee
- Pedro Martinez (neck, questionable)
- Joe Blanton
- J.A. Happ (oblique, questionable) or Jamie Moyer
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Moyer. Happ's return leaves plenty of uncertainty right now. We have to figure the Phillies will save Hamels for the postseason and use Moyer on the final day, though. Moyer could be a no-starter, too, though, especially if the Phillies take another look at Kyle Kendrick.
Starters on the DL: None.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Week 26 two-starter(s): Morton and perhaps Maholm. They figure to be questionable options. Maholm would be a nice sleeper, but the Pirates could elect to slot a No. 6 starter again, Donnie Veal, Virgil Vasquez or Jeff Karstens, which would keep Maholm from a second start.
Starters on the DL: None. Ross Ohlendorf has been shut down for his innings limit.
San Diego Padres
Week 26 two-starter(s): None. The Padres play just five games in the final week, although they could choose to skip someone if they wanted to get another look at Stauffer on the season's final day.
Starters on the DL: Chris R. Young (shoulder, out for the season), Cha Seung Baek (elbow, out for the season) and Shawn Hill (elbow, out for the season).
San Francisco Giants
Week 26 two-starter(s): Sanchez. He is a nice sleeper with a quality start Wednesday at Arizona.
Starters on the DL: Noah Lowry (shoulder, out for the season).
Seattle Mariners
Week 26 two-starter(s): Morrow. He is a nice sleeper for deeper leagues, although the Mariners could skip him to get two final starts out of King Felix. Felix is a must-start in all leagues, regardless.
Starters on the DL: Erik Bedard (shoulder, out for season) and Ryan Feierabend (elbow, out for the season).
St. Louis Cardinals
Week 26 two-starter(s): Smoltz. He is a nice sleeper with a quality start Wednesday at Houston. He will be pitching for a postseason start, so he will be plenty motivated.
Starters on the DL: None.
Tampa Bay Rays
Week 26 two-starter(s): Niemann and Davis. The Rays could limit their innings and slot Andy Sonnanstine over either one of them in the final week. Niemann and Davis are solid options in all leagues, even as one-starters vs. the Orioles.
Starters on the DL: None.
Texas Rangers
Week 26 two-starter(s): Hunter and Feldman. Feldman is likely a must-start, while Hunter will be a sleeper if he posts a quality start Wednesday at Oakland.
Starters on the DL: Matt Harrison (shoulder, out for the season) and Eric Hurley (shoulder, out for the season).
Toronto Blue Jays
Week 26 two-starter(s): Richmond. He is a questionable option even with a quality start Wednesday vs. the Orioles.
Starters on the DL: Shaun Marcum (elbow, out for the season), Dustin McGowan (shoulder/knee, out for the season), Jesse Litsch (elbow, out for the season) and Bobby Ray (shoulder, out for the season). Brett Cecil and Marc Rzepczynski have also been shut down for reaching their innings limits.
Washington Nationals
Week 26 two-starter(s): Perhaps Detwiler and Martin. The Nats could choose to shut down Detwiler and start a reliever over the final weekend, but these guys are high-risk options even in NL-only leagues.
Starters on the DL: Jordan Zimmermann (elbow, out for the season) and Scott Olsen (shoulder, out for the season).
You can e-mail us your Fantasy Baseball pitching questions to DMFantasyBaseball@cbs.com. Be sure to put Pitching Forecaster in the subject field. Please include your full name, hometown and state. Be aware, due to the large volume of submissions received, we cannot guarantee personal responses to all questions.
