May 10, 2011

Sliders: Smoak starting to build

By Scott White | Fantasy Writer
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Where there's smoke, there's fire. Or so I've heard, anyway.

But apparently, in Texas and Seattle last year, the laws of combustion didn't apply.

There was Smoak, all right -- the Justin kind, all 6-feet-4, 230 pounds of it -- but the 24-year-old first baseman never set the world ablaze, much less showed a spark to suggest he could. He never generated heat of any kind.

So Fantasy owners saw fit to dismiss him as a viable option. The Smoak was just an illusion -- a cloud of dust, maybe -- and better off ignored.

Ah, but that's when Smoak is at its most dangerous, when it's sneaking up on you, slowly building and building until, before you know it, you're suffocating.

Better act now.

Sliders ... These players are more than just hot or cold. Their recent play indicates a long-term change in value.

Justin Smoak, 1B, Mariners

His batting average was only .218, his OPS .678.

Needless to say, the enthusiasm over Smoak was lacking entering 2011. He played first base, the deepest position in Fantasy, and was putting up Jack Wilson numbers.

And it's not like he did it during a September callup, when you could easily dismiss his numbers as the product of a small sample size. Altogether, he played about two-thirds of a season.

That was enough for some Fantasy owners. He was another Matt LaPorta-type bust-o-rama, and they promised themselves they'd never make that mistake twice.

Perhaps they forgot about Adrian Gonzalez, Justin Morneau, Derrek Lee and the countless other All-Star first basemen whose careers didn't begin so swimmingly. Based on his numbers so far this year, Smoak seems to be following in their footsteps.

It's possible you haven't seen them yet. After all, he plays for a losing club in the Northwest and, truth be told, hasn't done anything all that notable -- no two-homer games like Adam Lind and no string of multi-hit games like Brett Wallace.

Nope, all Smoak has done is put up a better OPS than both -- a better OPS, in fact, than every first baseman but Miguel Cabrera, Joey Votto and Mark Teixeira.

You might recognize them from the first round of your league's draft.

Smoak may not be grabbing headlines, but he's showing home-run power, drawing walks and generally becoming everything you'd expect for the player often compared to Teixeira when he was coming up through the Rangers system. And he's done it all without the benefit of a sustained hot streak.

The lack of notoriety won't last forever. Sooner or later, after some of this year's hottest starters regress to something more sustainable and slide down the rankings, Smoak, with his quiet productivity, will rise. If you can still get him on the cheap, you should make it your mission to do so.

Ricky Nolasco, SP, Marlins

Nolasco hasn't thrown a shutout or even a complete game this year. He hasn't struck out 15 batters, flirted with a no-hitter or done anything to make you stop and take notice of him.

But you really should stop and take notice of him. Quietly, he's putting together the dominant season his peripherals have long suggested was coming.

You know those peripherals, right? They've been a constant of Fantasy preview columns since Nolasco first emerged on the scene with a 15-win 2008 season. That year, he ranked seventh in baseball in strikeout-to-walk ratio, right up there with Cliff Lee, CC Sabathia and Cole Hamels, among others. And it wasn't an isolated event. The next year, Nolasco ranked fifth in strikeout-to-walk ratio, and last year, he ranked third. The only other pitchers to rank in the top 10 each of the last three years are Roy Halladay, Dan Haren and Cliff Lee.

Pretty elite company, right? Year after year, the best pitchers in the game rank at the top of the category, and it makes sense. The more strikeouts they record, the fewer cheap hits they allow, and the fewer walks they issue, the fewer cheap baserunners they allow. The fewer cheap hits and baserunners they allow, the fewer cheap runs they allow, and those, not the home runs, are what do the most damage to a pitcher's ERA.

But unfortunately for Nolasco, that other half of the equation wasn't happening. His ERAs the last two years were 4.51 and 5.06, making him nothing short of a disappointment in Fantasy. Maybe too many of the hits he allowed were home runs. Maybe he was just unlucky. Maybe some of both. But more than anything, the way he began each season condemned him to Fantasy mediocrity.

Last year, his ERA over his first 15 starts was 4.92. His ERA over his final 10 (discarding the last one, when he was attempting to pitch through a torn meniscus) was 3.27.

The further back you go, the more extreme it gets. In 2009, his ERA was 9.07 over his first nine starts and 3.82 over his final 22. Even during that breakout 2008 season -- the one that started all the hype -- he didn't figure it out until the summer months, posting a 5.05 ERA over his first 13 appearances and a 2.83 ERA over his final 21.

If he would just begin a season the same way he finished it, his final numbers would look exactly the way they should ... which is what makes his 3-0 record, 3.23 ERA and 1.08 WHIP so far so exciting.

You may look at those numbers and yawn amid all the spectacular single-game efforts we've seen already this season, but I look at them and see a much-anticipated awakening for one of the Fantasy world's biggest sleeping giants.

The time to buy in on Nolasco is now, and if you own him, you should keep him active.

Justin Morneau, 1B, Twins

Nobody wants to admit what's happening here.

Not the Twins, who continue to bat Morneau in the middle of their lineup. Not Fantasy owners, who continue to start him in 71 percent of leagues. Not even Fantasy writers like me, who continually shy away from putting in print what we all, to some degree, suspect.

Morneau still isn't all the way back from last season's concussion.

It's not the most unexpected development -- it's why Morneau was going in the fifth or sixth round on Draft Day instead of the second or third -- but I think most of us were optimistic a player of his caliber could avoid the pitfalls experienced by so many of the other players who missed that much time with that specific injury. And who could predict what would happen, really? A brain is so much more complicated than a leg, wrist or shoulder.

But here we are five weeks into the season, and Morneau -- a historically fast starter and perennial MVP candidate who looked poised to contend for the Triple Crown at the time of his injury last July -- has a batting average near the Mendoza line and an OPS lower than the one that got Brandon Belt sent to the minors.

It's sad more than anything. Believe me: As much as I like my predictions to come true, I'd be happy to miss the mark this time. But I have to acknowledge the Fantasy ramifications of what I see happening here.

The fact of the matter is you drafted Morneau as a fifth- or sixth-rounder, and he's not that anymore. Frankly, he's not even a top-12 first baseman anymore, slipping behind players like Billy Butler, Paul Konerko and Ike Davis.

Does that mean you should cut him or write him off for the entire season? Not at all. He may just need more time, and yes, the possibility exists that this slow start is nothing more than an early-season slump. But you have to secure a more reliable option at first base if your goal is to contend this season.

And if you know of someone interested in buying low on Morneau, find out just what "buying low" means. If you can get an Alex Gordon, Jay Bruce or Max Scherzer-type player for him, it's the right move to make.

Alexi Ogando, SP, Rangers

Ogando was easy to dismiss at the beginning of the season, when he was somehow succeeding despite his lack of strikeouts. He was the overachieving middle reliever relishing his opportunity to play with the big boys until Tommy Hunter and Brandon Webb returned from injury.

But the outlook on him changed over his last three starts, elevating him from cutesy curiosity off the waiver wire to legitimate Fantasy force. During that time, he recorded 18 strikeouts in 18 innings and didn't sacrifice anything in the process, actually lowering his ERA from 2.33 to 2.17.

And given his mid-90s fastball, he should be able to pile up strikeouts regardless of his role. Having made only three professional starts before this season, perhaps he was overcompensating early, reducing his velocity and avoiding needless strikeouts to make sure he could last six and seven innings. Now that he's learning to extend himself and maximize his stuff over the duration of a start, we're finding out the fastball that made him such a successful setup man last year is still just as lively in the starting role.

The Rangers have already seen all they need to see, more or less designating Ogando a permanent part of their rotation. The only obstacle that stands in his way now is the accumulation of innings, having worked less than 80 between the minors, majors and postseason last year. But as we saw with C.J. Wilson, the Rangers aren't so quick to pull back the reins on their converted relievers.

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I understand the only pub Ogando got this spring was as a potential replacement for closer Neftali Feliz. Nobody was expecting him to move into the starting rotation, and when it happened, nobody knew exactly what to think. But you should have a pretty good idea by now. He'll be an integral part of your pitching staff this year, and if you're in one of the 15 percent of leagues where he remains unowned, he's a must-add.

Carlos Beltran, OF, Mets

Beltran played 21 consecutive games before finally taking a day off Sunday. That feat alone makes him worthy of a mention here.

But his performance seals the deal. It goes beyond what anyone could have expected for someone returning from a knee injury that sidelined him for the better part of two seasons and at an age (34) when some players begin contemplating retirement. It's especially surprising since he looked like a lost cause for most of his return last year. Only over his final 18 games, when he hit .353 with five home runs and a 1.047 OPS, did he even show the capacity for returning to his former glory.

Apparently, it was a sign of things to come.

Beltran has a .916 OPS, which would be the second-highest of his career and his highest since 2006, when he hit 41 homers and finished fourth in MVP voting. He showed no signs of slowing down over the 21 consecutive games he played, batting .328 with a 1.000 OPS over his final 19, which shows me not only is he every bit the hitter he was before, but also that the knee injury is definitively behind him.

Does that mean he's everything he used to be in Fantasy? Well, no. He was a top-30 pick about the time he hurt his knee, let's not forget. He doesn't steal bases anymore, and he's a bigger risk to for injury at this stage of his career.

Still, if you rolled the dice on him on Draft Day, it's paying off in the best possible way. He's looking like an every-week option for your Fantasy team.

Hanging Sliders ... These guys look like Sliders, but not so fast! Their recent play might cause you to misinterpret their Fantasy appeal.

Colby Lewis, SP, Rangers

Lewis was billed as a mid-round sleeper in Fantasy, someone who didn't get enough credit for his WHIP and strikeout rate last year because his ERA and win-loss record were both less than impressive.

So naturally, Fantasy owners were disappointed when he posted a 6.95 ERA over his first four starts, striking out just 14 batters in 22 innings. That much I understand, having benched him in my own leagues and not activated him since.

What I don't understand is the continued pessimism after his last two starts. I have yet to hear the collective sigh of relief from his Fantasy owners or a public outcry to get him active again. In fact, his starting percentage has actually dropped, from 52 to 51, since he began this turnaround.

That has to change. His last two starts show he's close to being the pitcher he was last year.

He went eight innings in each, posting a 2.81 ERA. His command was back, with only two walks allowed during that stretch, and so was his strikeout ability. Shoot, he recorded 11 strikeouts in his last start at Seattle, which was more than he had in any of his 32 starts last season.

I'll admit he's not completely out of the woods yet. He was facing two low-scoring teams in those two starts and still served up three homers, giving him 11 already this season. But as his strikeout rate and efficiency have improved, so has his velocity. After throwing in the 80s over his first four starts, he has gotten back to consistently hitting 90 over the last two, which is about what he averaged on his fastball last season.

Now that his stuff is back, his numbers should begin to normalize, as we're already seeing. If you own him, don't lose faith. You still have a good chance of getting everything you paid for.

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