May 15, 2011

Week 7 Fantasy Pitching Planner

By Al Melchior | Data Analyst
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The Fantasy Baseball Pitching Planner is your guide to setting your rotations for the upcoming scoring period. Every week, we'll give you the latest on all of the matchups, highlight two-start options and much more. NOTE: The Planner will be updated with the latest rotation information every Sunday prior to lineup deadlines.

Because none of the 30 major league teams has a day off during Fantasy Week 7, every team will have two pitchers that will make two starts. That is, every team but the White Sox, assuming that they will stick to their newly-unveiled six-man rotation. That provides Fantasy owners with a wealth of two-start options for next week -- 59 of them to be exact.

Due to the bounty of two-start pitchers, owners can be choosier about whom to pick up or whom to make active. Therefore, some of the pitchers who would normally be an advisable start in standard mixed leagues won't get that tag this week. That will be especially true for one-start pitchers. Another upshot of the Week 7 schedule is that virtually no one is in danger of being skipped. With no days off to rest the top-of-the-rotation starters, all fifth starters will be in play this coming week.

Because there are so many two-start pitchers to consider, this week's analysis is very heavy on those two-start options. Check out the tool and the analyses below as you sort out which arms to rest your Fantasy fortunes on.

Advisable Two-Start Pitchers (Standard Mixed Leagues)

Brett Anderson, Oakland: He has not pitched well in two of his last three starts, both of which came against Texas. Anderson may just not have the Rangers figured out; he has a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts against them. Fortunately, he gets the Angels and Giants this week, so expect Anderson to be his usual effective self.

Homer Bailey, Cincinnati: Bailey has been very sharp in his first two starts back from the DL. That alone may not be reason to start him in Week 7, but he started to make a case for himself as a standard mixed league pitcher last season.

Scott Baker, Minnesota: The strike-throwing Baker had a Wednesday to forget, handing out five walks and allowing five runs to the Tigers. That's not the usual drill for Baker, and owners can expect a better result when he travels to Seattle and Arizona next week.

Zach Britton, Baltimore: With a 1.8 K/BB ratio, Britton may look out of place among the more accomplished two-start pitchers on this list. In most cases, such poor command would not get rewarded with a recommendation to start in standard mixed leagues, but Britton can be as helpful in Fantasy as many pitchers with higher strikeout rates. He profiles much like Trevor Cahill did before he started striking people out, so he just may be able to keep his ERA around 3.00.

A.J. Burnett, N.Y. Yankees: I have been skeptical of Burnett up to this point, but he is due credit for improving his control. In facing a depleted Mets lineup this coming week, along with a start at Tampa Bay, he should offer enough to be worth an active roster spot in most leagues.

Jaime Garcia, St. Louis: Garcia didn't pitch his best game against the Cubs on Thursday, but it was still good enough to get him his fifth win of the year. The undefeated lefty is even better than he was as a rookie and deserves to be considered as a must-start option.

Matt Garza, Chicago Cubs: Garza continues to strike out batters at a baffling pace, but lately he is also getting better results when he does allow contact. Regardless of his 4.00-plus ERA, Garza is not the pitcher he used to be -- he's better.

Gio Gonzalez, Oakland: Some owners fret about Gonzalez's high walk rate, but its impact on his Fantasy value is overstated. Because of a high popup rate, his WHIP is just under league average, and meanwhile, he's winning games, piling up strikeouts, and preventing runs. Nearly anytime he gets two starts, you will want to have him active.

Tommy Hanson, Atlanta: He hasn't always been going deep into games, but Hanson rarely has a disastrous start. Despite occasional bouts with efficiency, Hanson has elevated himself to must- start status.

Felix Hernandez, Seattle: King Felix looked more like a subject of the Orioles' batsmen on Wednesday, but he had rattled off four consecutive quality starts prior to that outing. Look for Hernandez to get back in the groove next week, especially with the Twins and Padres as his next opponents.

Daniel Hudson, Arizona: With a 4.41 ERA, Hudson may not look like a must-start pitcher, but he has been awfully good, save for one ugly trip to Cincinnati. Especially with starts against the Padres and Twins on tap, you'd be hard pressed to find many better options for the week ahead.

Josh Johnson, Florida: After outdueling Roy Halladay on Tuesday, Johnson will have to turn the intensity dial back up when he faces off against David Price next Saturday. He has shown that he is the match of any pitcher, and he should also be fine when going up against Mike Pelfrey and the Mets in his first start next week.

Cliff Lee, Philadelphia: Even though he has been getting hit hard on balls in play, Lee deserves better than his 3.78 ERA. He remains a must-start pitcher, whether he takes the mound once or twice in a given week.

Tim Lincecum, San Francisco: The Giants' rainout on Sunday means that everyone in the San Francisco rotation got moved back one game. Matt Cain's loss is Lincecum's gain, as Cain goes to one-start status, while Lincecum will take the mound twice in Week 7. He'll face the Rockies and A's.

Derek Lowe, Atlanta: Going into Thursday's start against the Nationals, Lowe's homer rate was suspiciously low, but after allowing two jacks, everything has evened out. You can trust his 3.73 ERA, and you can trust Lowe in Week 7 with starts against the Astros and at the Angels.

Shaun Marcum, Milwaukee: Odds were high that Marcum was going to have a brilliant outing against a weak Padres lineup on Tuesday, but the Friars defied those odds, scoring five times against the ex-Blue Jay. Odds being odds, they sometimes take you in the wrong direction, but they lead you to the right move more often than not. Marcum has tougher assignments in Week 7, facing the Dodgers and Rockies, but he is still a good bet in the vast majority of leagues.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida: Over the last two years, Nolasco's supporting stats have outshone his Fantasy stats, which has been of little comfort to his owners. His difficulty with stranding runners has been at the root of the problem, but he is having fewer problems keeping runners from scoring this year. Until he shows otherwise, you can trust Nolasco week in and week out.

Michael Pineda, Seattle: The fly-ball-prone Pineda has allowed three home runs over his last two starts, but he could easily have a homerless week against the Twins and Padres. Since the rookie doesn't allow many base runners to start with, there is little standing in the way of him having an exceptional two-start week.

David Price, Tampa Bay: For the most part, Price has been dominant this year, as he has taken yet another step forward in his development. The latest addition to his bag of tricks is pinpoint control, as Price has walked only nine batters in 57 2/3 innings. He should continue to roll with upcoming starts against the Yankees and Marlins.

Wandy Rodriguez, Houston: Don't be fooled by Wandy's 1.38 WHIP; his control has been better than ever. His Fantasy stats have suffered under the weight of a .331 BABIP, but there is no clear reason as to why hitters are doing so well against him on balls in play. He appears to be a victim of bad luck and is still every bit the standard mixed league stalwart that he has been over the last three seasons.

Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco: As with Gio Gonzalez, a little too much has been made of Sanchez's struggles with control. He followed up a pair of six-walk efforts with a strong start against Arizona in which he granted only two bases on balls. Sanchez has always been wild, but his WHIP was not this high in either of the last two seasons. It should recede, and he should be perfectly safe to use in Week 7.

Max Scherzer, Detroit: The biggest blemish on Scherzer's stat line this season has been a high homer rate, as he has yielded eight dingers in 50 2/3 innings. It's not cause for worry, though, as four of them came in his first start of the year in Yankee Stadium. All eight homers have occurred on the road, but this week, Scherzer gets the Blue Jays at home and travels to pitcher-friendly Pittsburgh.

James Shields, Tampa Bay: Shields has been a workhorse, going at least seven innings in all but one of his starts to date. He's been producing quality innings as well, so there is little risk to running Big Game James out on your active roster for the coming scoring period.

Tim Stauffer, San Diego: Wednesday's clunker at Milwaukee was Stauffer's first real misstep since his second start of the year. With a 59 percent ownership rate, Stauffer is radically underowned, as he has handled some formidable lineups this year with relative ease. With so many good two-start options available, this might not seem like the best week to pick him up or start him, but those owners who do put Stauffer in their lineups will not be disappointed.

Other Add/Activate Targets

Ryan Dempster, Chicago Cubs: After a nightmarish first six starts, Dempster has woken up and rediscovered the strike zone. It's good to have him back. Even with just one start, he's worth keeping active.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota: His first start since a rain-shortened appearance at Boston on May 7 was a disaster, as Duensing allowed seven earned runs in three innings against Toronto on Sunday. Maybe his schedule getting thrown off has affected him or maybe he just simply had a bad game. Duensing bears close watching, but to bench him now because of one bad start and a bad relief appearance on Tuesday is an overreaction.

Yovani Gallardo, Milwaukee: Though he is as wild as ever, Gallardo got bunches of strikeouts and ground balls over his last three starts. Fantasy owners have seen better results in the last two of those, as Gallardo picked up wins both times and allowed only two runs over 14 combined innings. There's little reason to think that the 25-year-old can't have success when facing the Padres next week.

Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh: Karstens is only in the Pirates' rotation because of Ross Ohlendorf's injury-induced absence, so he doesn't get much respect. He is owned in only three percent of leagues, but his 3.62 ERA is mostly legit. Karstens is too much of a home run risk to trust in most mixed leagues, but it's hard to believe that he couldn't be helping a lot more NL-only owners.

Brandon McCarthy, Oakland: xFIP estimates that McCarthy's ERA should be 13 points higher than its current 3.34 resting point, but that's because it doesn't trust the fact that he has allowed only one home run in 56 2/3 innings. He's due to give up a few dingers now and then, but between his ground-ball tendencies and his pitcher-friendly home park, McCarthy shouldn't get hurt too much by homers. He is as good, if not better, than what his ERA would suggest. Oh, and he faces the hapless Twins next week.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee: After two subpar starts, Narveson had nice bounce-back efforts this past week at St. Louis and at home against Pittsburgh, but owners are not impressed. He is still getting dropped and benched as if he were stinking up the joint every time out. Narveson can still be trusted in standard mixed leagues nearly every week, but if you are among the many owners who needs some reassurance, he is starting against the Padres in Week 7. It's a good time to get him active again.

Inadvisable Two-Start Pitchers (Standard Mixed Leagues)

Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland: Carrasco did not have a triumphant return from the DL in taking the loss in Wednesday's game against the Rays. He has yet to show the same promise that Fantasy owners saw during his brief trial last season. For now, Carrasco remains an AL-only option, though he has the potential to be much more.

Tyler Chatwood, L.A. Angels: The Angels' rookie owns a 3.67 ERA after seven starts, but with more walks than strikeouts, I remain skeptical. Most owners are as well, as Chatwood is owned in just 11 percent of leagues. Until he can throw strikes consistently, owners should continue to avoid him.

Kyle Davies, Kansas City: Davies has a long history of stranding a low percentage of base runners, and you could argue that maybe he has been a little better than his career 5.58 ERA makes it appear. This year, though, Davies' 7.08 ERA could potentially get even worse, as he has allowed six homers, but none have been with any runners on. No matter how you dissect his stats, his 2 percent ownership rate looks just about right.

Kyle Drabek, Toronto: Drabek entered the season with a lot of hype, but since his first two starts, he hasn't been much better than, say, Casey Coleman. He shouldn't be dropped in deeper leagues, but with a 69 percent ownership rate, Drabek is using up more roster spots than he should be.

Armando Galarraga, Arizona: Starts against the scuffling Twins and Padres are helping the Diamondback and Mariner pitchers who get to face them this week. However, the easy schedule does not automatically make any pitcher opposing them useful in Fantasy. Galarraga cannot be trusted against any opponent. Even with the two most desirable matchups possible, owners should not be using Galarraga.

Jon Garland, L.A. Dodgers: Garland hasn't always had great control, and he rarely posts impressive strikeout rates, but at least you can always count on him to get ground ball outs. Inexplicably, he's been a flyball pitcher this season, He's also been allowing plenty of line drives, but he's getting away with both trends because of a .258 BABIP. Garland has always been risky as a standard mixed league option, but now he may be even more dangerous in those formats.

Matt Harrison, Texas: After a pair of miserable starts against the Blue Jays and A's, Harrison is showing some signs of recovery. He had a better start against the Yankees last week and looked even sharper in a start against Oakland that got wiped out by rain. Owners may be able to trust Harrison again in deeper mixed leagues, but he'll have to prove himself in his coming starts against the White Sox and Phillies first.

Edwin Jackson, Chicago White Sox: As it stands, Jackson is the only White Sox hurler to get two starts next week in Ozzie Guillen's new six-man rotation. He is on a roll yet again, but Jackson's inconsistency makes him too risky of a play when there are so many two-start options for owners to consider.

Ubaldo Jimenez, Colorado: After providing some positive signs in his previous start at San Francisco, Jimenez was all over the map on Thursday against the Mets. He was chased in the fourth inning, having allowed five earned runs. He is just not the same pitcher we saw last year, so until he regains his prior form, he cannot be trusted in standard mixed leagues.

Hiroki Kuroda, L.A. Dodgers: Kuroda has been uncharacteristically homer-prone this season, but it hasn't hurt him, as all but one of the seven shots he's allowed have been solo homers. It could easily be a small sample fluke, but since Kuroda is a marginal choice in standard mixed leagues, you could think of his recent gopheritis as a tiebreaker as you consider your starting options for Week 7.

John Lackey, Boston: Many have compared Lackey's poor start this season to his early difficulties in 2010, pointing out that he managed to rebound in the second half. If he does come back from this early-season debacle, he will have dug himself out of a much deeper hole. Lackey is currently pitching much worse than he did when he was at his worst a year ago. His flyballs and line drives are up, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio is down, and we can see the result in an ERA that is nearly three runs higher. There is little risk for owners in standard mixed league in dropping Lackey, and he absolutely shouldn't be active outside of AL-only leagues.

John Lannan, Washington: Lannan isn't really cut out for standard mixed leagues, but he's been wilder than normal this year. That renders him viable for NL-only leagues and not much else.

Colby Lewis, Texas: Lewis has now put together three decent starts in a row, but it's still hard to trust him. In those three starts, he faced Oakland twice and Seattle once, and in his last outing, he didn't strike out a single batter. This is not to say that Lewis hasn't recovered from his disappointing first four starts, but owners can afford to wait another week before trying him out.

Francisco Liriano, Minnesota: We can easily chalk up Liriano's poor start versus Detroit on Tuesday to his struggles with the flu, but it's still hard to ignore his poor peripherals. It is difficult to believe that buried somewhere in those season-to-date stats is a no-hitter. Even with two starts, Liriano should be stashed until we start seeing much better command from him.

Jesse Litsch, Toronto: Litsch has been much better than what you would expect from a pitcher who is owned in only 10 percent of leagues so far. The skepticism is probably warranted, because who knows if he can keep up his newfound ability to miss bats. It's not worth starting Litsch in mixed leagues this coming week, but he is someone who a lot more owners need to keep an eye on.

Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh: Maholm's ERA and WHIP give the appearance of an improved pitcher, but he isn't doing anything much differently. In fact, he is actually walking more batters than usual. A lower-than-normal BABIP is creating the illusion of improvement, but Maholm is still the NL- only option that we've come to know.

Daisuke Matsuzaka, Boston: Matsuzaka has been getting more rest between starts, but it remains to be seen if it produces better results on a consistent basis. Owners in standard mixed leagues have given up on him for the most part -- judging by his diminished ownership rate -- but he is someone to monitor for future weeks.

Vin Mazzaro, Kansas City: Mazzaro replaces Bruce Chen in the Royals' rotation, and he should be a slightly less volatile option. That said, like Chen, the former Athletic is an AL-only option.

Clayton Mortensen, Colorado: Mortensen is another A's castoff slotting in as a replacement for an injured fifth starter. He'll fill in for Esmil Rogers while he works his way back from a strained lat. Mortensen fits in nicely with the Rockies' corps of ground ball pitchers, but he won't get enough strikeouts to be relevant outside of NL-only leagues.

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh: His 4-1 record and 3.13 ERA look peculiar alongside his poor strikeout-to-walk ratio, which is exactly 1.0. However, Morton's success stems from a very real ability to induce grounders and popups at high rates. Better yet, he has been gradually improving his strikeout- to-walk ratio, which is weighed down by his first two starts. It's understandable why owners in standard mixed leagues would avoid Morton for this two-start week. However, with a 26 percent ownership rate, Morton, who ranks among the top 50 starting pitchers in Fantasy points, is currently underused in Fantasy.

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Brett Myers, Houston: Last season's version of Myers is looking more and more like an aberration. The improvement we saw in 2010 was based on a diminished home run per fly ball rate, but that indicator is back up to a ghastly 13 percent this year. Owners can no longer consider him a solid two-start option for standard mixed leagues, even when there are fewer two-start options available.

Jonathon Niese, N.Y. Mets: Just when it looked like Niese might be developing some consistency, he dropped a stink bomb in his Thursday start at Colorado. If you're tempted to write it off as a Coors Field-aided abnormality, then get ready for a repeat, as Niese will pitch in Yankee Stadium next week.

Ivan Nova, N.Y. Yankees: Nova was simply awful in Thursday's loss to the Royals. It was the third time in seven starts this year that the rookie has failed to complete five innings. That won't cut it outside of AL-only leagues.

Mike Pelfrey, N.Y. Mets: Pelfrey's Tuesday outing at Colorado, in which he allowed three home runs, tells you exactly how effective his sinker has been this year. Until that changes, there's not much Pelfrey can do to help mixed league owners.

Joel Pineiro, L.A. Angels: Pineiro has been awfully good over his first three starts, but he doesn't strike out enough batters to be a viable two-start pitcher in standard mixed leagues this coming week.

Rick Porcello, Detroit: Porcello's strikeout rate is climbing this season, and he has not coughed up more than two earned runs in any of his last five starts. The 22-year-old might be starting to bust out, but it's still too early to use him outside of deeper mixed leagues and AL-only formats.

Clayton Richard, San Diego: Posting just three quality starts in eight tries, Richard has taken a step backwards so far this year. Until he starts to put up bigger strikeout totals, matchups and two-start weeks will be irrelevant for him.

Chris Tillman, Baltimore: Early on, Tillman appeared to be one of the biggest underperformers in the majors this season, but he continued to have one bad start after another. He broke the streak with a strong effort against the Mariners on Wednesday. Mixed league owners will need to see more of that from Tillman, and against better competition, before they can feel safe picking him up.

Josh Tomlin, Cleveland: He has been highly effective so far, but Tomlin has enough warts that he merits sitting when the situation calls for it. He is very homer-prone and one of his Week 7 opponents, the Reds, ranks second in the majors in home runs. His other opponent -- the Royals -- is tied for third in runs scored. Forget Tomlin's stats to date and bench him for the coming week outside of deeper formats.

Edinson Volquez, Cincinnati: Volquez has lasted six innings only twice this year, and he has not pitched more than six innings in any start yet. He is throwing too many pitches to go deep into games, and all of those walks are killing his WHIP and ERA,

Jake Westbrook, St. Louis: Though he has not been as bad as his 6.92 ERA would suggest, Westbrook hasn't been good enough to be trusted in deeper mixed leagues. At the very least, he needs to issue fewer walks before owners in those formats can consider him.

Randy Wolf, Milwaukee: Wolf has always been hard to figure out, but after his disaster of a start against San Diego on Wednesday, it seems almost impossible to know what could come next for the lefty. His inconsistency alone makes him hard to start in standard mixed leagues.

Carlos Zambrano, Chicago Cubs: Aside from a pair of starts -- one against the Padres and another against the Dodgers -- Zambrano just hasn't been very good this year. There's no reason to bank on a rebound when he goes to Cincinnati and Boston next week.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington: Disappointing through his first five starts, Zimmermann has really turned it on in his last three turns in the rotation. It's especially encouraging to see his 21 strikeouts over 18 1/3 innings in that three-game span. If he can keep this trend going in his starts against Pittsburgh and Baltimore in Week 7, it will be time to think about using Zim in 12-team mixed leagues.

Other Drop/Stash Targets

Clay Buchholz, Boston: Buchholz looked much better in his last two starts, striking out 13 batters with only two walks over 12 innings. If not for the bevy of quality two-start options available, this would be a good week to start trusting Buchholz again in your active lineup. He is still benched in 42 percent of leagues, so there are plenty of owners who need to clear a space for the Red Sox's righty in Week 8. At least for now, though, standard mixed-league owners should stash Buchholz for one more week.

Jeremy Hellickson, Tampa Bay: I didn't think I'd be slapping the "unreliable" tag on Hellickson this season, but seven appearances into the year it fits. His Friday shutout of the Orioles was a good start towards rebuilding owner confidence, but more often than not this season, Hellickson has had problems with command. For now, standard mixed league owners need to sit him.

Ted Lilly, L.A. Dodgers: More often than not, Lilly would be an advisable start in most leagues, but he should be stashed in standard mixed leagues in Week 7. I'm not buying into his mediocre performance to date. It's just that I don't care for extreme flyball pitchers with starts at U.S. Cellular Field, and neither should you.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis: Lohse has been one of the bigger overperformers so far this year. With so many good two-start options available, you would hate to waste an active roster spot on a one-start Lohse who could easily come back to earth.

Alexi Ogando, Texas: Ogando has far more upside than Lohse. Then again, he, too, is an overperformer with just one start next week, and as mentioned above, the Royals are a more formidable opponent than you may think.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: There was a lot more to like about Peavy's season debut at Anaheim on Wednesday than his final stat line would indicate. Still, with Peavy not having pitched very much the last couple of seasons and his results having been inconsistent, this coming week presents a good opportunity to collect a little more information. Maybe he's worth a start in standard mixed leagues for Week 8.

Ervin Santana, L.A. Angels: Santana's 3.2 strikeout-to-walk ratio... very impressive. His 35 percent ground-ball rate and 1.1 home runs per nine innings going into Sunday's start at Texas... not so impressive. The latter stats make him a marginal pick at best for standard mixed leagues.

Might Not Start in Week 7

Kyle Kendrick, Philadelphia: Kendrick filled in for Roy Oswalt for his last turn in the rotation, as the ex-Astro is currently on the disabled list. He is expected to come off the DL and make a start on Tuesday at St. Louis, so unless there is a change in plans, look for Kendrick to return to the Phillies' bullpen.

Julio Teheran, Atlanta: There is a very strong chance that Teheran will make a spot start for Brandon Beachy on Wednesday at Arizona. It has not been made official yet, but it is only a slim chance that the assignment goes to someone else. Owners thinking of picking up the highly-regarded prospect in single-season formats should bear in mind that the Braves won't need a fifth starter after Wednesday until May 31, which is in Fantasy Week 9.

DL Watch

Brandon Beachy, Atlanta: Beachy left Friday's start against the Phillies with a strained oblique, and the Braves placed him on the 15-day disabled list on Sunday. It is expected that Julio Teheran will be recalled from Triple-A Gwinnett to start in Beachy's place. The team anticipates that Beachy will be out of the rotation for at least a month.

Roy Oswalt, Philadelphia: Oswalt (back) made a Class A rehab start on Thursday, but it did not go particularly well. Nonetheless, he is expected to start for the Phillies on Tuesday and again on Sunday. Owners can get him into their lineups for Week 7, but with so many two-start options, it may be better to sit him and see how fares in his first couple of starts back. The Cardinals and Rangers are two of the tougher assignments a pitcher can have, and Oswalt will likely face them both this coming week.

Brian Matusz, Baltimore: Matusz (intercostal strain) will make a Class A rehab start on Monday, and then he will make a start at either Double-A or Triple-A on Saturday. While it's not an absolute given, Matusz is on track to be activated from the DL to pitch for the Orioles sometime in Fantasy Week 8 (May 23-29).

Mitch Talbot, Cleveland: Talbot (elbow) made a Triple-A rehab start on Saturday and is slated to make another start on Thursday. Assuming that he would just need those two rehab appearances, he could return for Fantasy Week 8 (May 23-29).

Randy Wells, Chicago Cubs: Wells (forearm) will begin his rehab assignment in Class A on Tuesday, opening up the possibility that he could return sometime in Fantasy Week 8 (May 23-29).

Bruce Chen, Kansas City: Chen was placed on the DL on Wednesday with a Grade 1 strain of his lat. While the injury is not deemed serious, he will not pitch for seven days. He will return to the rotation in approximately three weeks.

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