Aug. 21, 2011

Week 21 Fantasy Pitching Planner

By Al Melchior | Data Analyst
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With a healthy number of two-start pitchers scheduled for Fantasy Week 21 (Aug. 22-28) -- 40 in all -- you may think that marginal one-start types like Mark Buehrle, Javier Vazquez and Matt Harrison should find a nice, comfortable spot on the bench in most standard mixed leagues.

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To the contrary, it's time to ensure that your borderline one-starters get their side sessions in now, because you'll need them when lineups lock on Monday. Many of the two-start options for the coming week are of the low-end variety. The offerings are slim enough that Joe Saunders (@WAS, SD), Fausto Carmona (SEA, KC), Dillon Gee (@PHI, ATL) and Jason Vargas (@CLE, CHW) are all reasonable back-of-the-rotation options, though owners should draw the line at using Jeff Karstens (MIL, @STL), Carl Pavano (BAL, DET) or even the inconsistent Kyle Lohse (LAD, PIT), at least in standard mixed leagues.

What separates the Carmonas from the Lohses? Why is it worthwhile to keep someone like Buehrle active next week? And which other sleepers are worth a shot in Week 21? The answers lie below, as the key borderline options are assessed for the week ahead. More information is also available in the interactive viz just below, as you can see which pitchers have been underperforming (or overperforming) and which might be available in your leagues.

Borderline Two-Start Pitchers

Erik Bedard, Boston: Owners have had to be patient with Bedard, as he has slowly worked his way back from his knee injury. Tuesday's six-inning, 102-pitch start showed us that the training wheels are off, and Bedard is at or close to full strength. His timing couldn't be better, as he's not only healthier for Week 21, but he gets two starts to boot, facing the Rangers and A's. Owners in roughly one-third of the leagues on CBSSports.com still have Bedard benched, but now is the time that they can finally get him active.

Fausto Carmona, Cleveland: Carmona was so miserable from mid-May through early July that we may have forgotten that he had some good moments early in the season. On May 18, Carmona had a 3.94 ERA and had lasted at least seven innings in all but two of his first nine starts. Since a brief DL stint in early July, Carmona has been performing well again, and particularly in his last three starts, he has done a better job of getting ground balls. As long as Carmona is keeping the ball in the park, he can usually be relied on to be effective. Once again, he can be trusted as a two-start option, even in mixed leagues.

Bartolo Colon, N.Y. Yankees: Colon hasn't made things look easy lately, as he has failed to exceed six innings in any of his last four starts. Though Colon hasn't been especially efficient, he hasn't been all that bad, aside from his start on Wednesday at Kansas City. He is still throwing strikes, avoiding contact at a good rate, and inducing frequent popups. Colon may not be as valuable now as he was earlier in the season, but especially with the Yankees providing run support, he remains worth starting most weeks in standard mixed leagues.

Brian Duensing, Minnesota: Duensing had a stretch just before the All-Star break where it looked like he might be rounding back into his 2010 form, but he remains stuck in neutral. Even during his hot streak, the signs of regression were there, including low ground ball and mediocre line drive rates. Duensing's 2.62 ERA and 1.20 WHIP from a year ago always looked at least a little suspect, and now they seem like a classic case of overperformance. At this point, it would take some pretty radical improvement for standard mixed league owners to trust Duensing, even in a two-start week.

Nate Eovaldi, L.A. Dodgers: Speaking of overperformance, could Eovaldi be this year's answer to the 2010 version of Duensing? The Dodgers' rookie has gotten away with nine walks in his first 17 innings, producing a 2.12 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. As with Duensing last season, Eovaldi is getting help from a high strand rate and a low BABIP. He also has yet to allow a homer, despite a slightly elevated flyball rate. Flyballs and walks could be a recipe for disaster, and two starts could mean double the trouble for Eovaldi.

Dillon Gee, N.Y. Mets: Gee had one of his best starts in recent weeks on Wednesday, when he held the Padres to a single run in 6 2/3 innings. As in some of his other starts, Gee was wild, but he got away with it by not giving up many hits on balls in play. His tendency to walk too many batters makes him a risky one-start pitcher, but he has been good enough at getting grounders to be useful as a two-start option. Now that he has been moved ahead of Jonathon Niese in the Mets' rotation, Gee will in fact get two starts in Week 21, so he is worth adding for the coming scoring period.

Jeff Karstens, Pittsburgh: Ever since Karstens' streak of nine straight quality starts ended last month, there hasn't been much for his Fantasy owners to celebrate. Over his last five starts, Karstens has compiled a 6.75 ERA and 1.65 WHIP, bringing away just one win. Oddly enough, he has been striking out batters far more often lately, but his good luck on balls in play has reversed dramatically. Contrary to what his recent stats might indicate, Karstens still has value for owners in NL-only leagues and some deep mixed league formats, particularly with two starts. However, his earlier success was just a mirage, and he never really belonged as a standard mixed league option.

Kyle Lohse, St. Louis: Lohse has done well in his last two starts, so his many Fantasy owners are probably itching to get him active for an upcoming two-start week. However, those performances came at home against the Rockies (a team that doesn't hit on the road) and at the Pirates, who have scored the third-fewest runs of any NL team over the last 30 days. In his 11 starts prior to that, Lohse was carrying a 5.25 ERA thanks to a plummeting ground ball rate. Owners who give too much weight to Lohse's two easy starts could wind up regretting it. Keep him benched for at least one more week outside of deeper leagues.

Brandon McCarthy, Oakland: Overall, McCarthy has had a good season, dramatically improving his command and ground ball tendencies, and producing a 3.74 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. That would normally be more than enough to qualify McCarthy as a viable two-start pitcher, but a couple of trouble signs lurk for the week ahead. He has been hit hard in his last two starts, striking out a total of only three batters, while allowing line drives on more than one out of every four hit balls. If that wasn't bad enough, McCarthy has the mother-of-all-bad-matchup-weeks looming, as he will face the both Yankees and Red Sox in their respective home stadiums. Given that most owners have avoided McCarthy up to this point, now isn't the time to give him a try.

Mike Minor, Atlanta: When the Braves determined that Tommy Hanson (shoulder) would require a minor league rehab start before coming off the disabled list, that cemented Minor's status as a two-start pitcher next week. Minor will continue to pitch out of Hanson's spot for at least one more scoring period. One thing owners won't have to worry about with Minor is bases on balls; he's been throwing plenty of strikes, avoiding free passes, and also ringing up just shy of a strikeout per inning this year. However, it's been an all-or-nothing kind of season for Minor in his nine big league starts, as opponents are batting .290 against him. Before he nailed down his second start of the week, Minor's hittability made him an inadvisable pitcher in standard mixed leagues. With starts at the Cubs and Mets, though, the lefty should provide enough strikeouts and innings to overcome whatever runs and hits he allows.

Ricky Nolasco, Florida: Nolasco did his best to scare off owners with his disastrous outing in Colorado on Wednesday. In giving up 11 runs in just three innings, it was the fourth time this season that Nolasco had coughed up at least eight runs in a game. No other pitcher has managed that feat four times this year, and only Fausto Carmona, John Lackey and Carl Pavano have done it three times. Still, Nolasco has been a far more productive Fantasy pitcher overall than any of those three calamity- prone hurlers, and he's worth using in standard mixed leagues with two starts. Nolasco's propensity for big blowups makes him riskier than similarly-productive pitchers, like Gavin Floyd or teammate Anibal Sanchez, but he can still be reasonably productive in standard mixed leagues. However, given that the opposing pitchers in his Week 21 starts are Johnny Cueto and Roy Halladay, Nolasco is a low-end option in standard mixed leagues for the coming scoring period.

Bud Norris, Houston: Norris hasn't been as impressive or as consistent as he was earlier this season, but aside from a six-run beating administered by the Brewers earlier this month, Norris has avoided total meltdowns. It has helped that he has overcome the gopheritis that struck him in July, as he is inducing more grounders in his recent starts. Owners can still count on Norris for strikeouts, and even with a visit to Coors Field next week, he should offer enough to merit an active roster spot in standard mixed leagues.

Joe Saunders, Arizona: Saunders doesn’t miss enough bats to help standard mixed league owners in most weeks. Over the last two months, though, he has been pitching with possibly the best control of his career, and that has enhanced his value, especially in Head-to-Head leagues. In his last 11 starts, Saunders has posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.20 WHIP, while walking just 19 batters in 74 innings. Good matchups against the Nationals and Padres help his cause, too, making Saunders a solid waiver wire option for Week 21.

Jason Vargas, Seattle: Vargas been terrible over his last seven starts, compiling a 7.39 ERA and allowing opponents to tally eight homers over 35 1/3 innings. In all fairness, Vargas has had a challenging schedule, and the Angels have been the only favorable matchup. In that one start, he blanked the Halos over six innings. The Indians and White Sox present Vargas with two of his easiest matchups in awhile. Also important is the fact that the Pale Hose will travel to Seattle, so Vargas gets to avoid facing them at homer-friendly U.S. Cellular Field. The southpaw doesn't crack our top 70 this time, but in a week with few reliable two-start options, Vargas is worth a claim if you're looking to cram an extra start into your rotation.

Jordan Zimmermann, Washington: It's use-him-or-lose-him time for Zimmermann. This is likely to be his last week in the Nats' rotation this year, and it will certainly be his last two-start week. The 25-year-old has been a reliable pitcher for standard mixed league owners this year, and there's no reason to bench him now. Even though he goes up against a couple of tough adversaries in Ian Kennedy and Johnny Cueto, Zimmermann has shown that he can hold his own against tough lineups and formidable opposing pitchers. Enjoy what might be his last fling for 2011.

Other Add/Activate Targets

Mark Buehrle, Chicago White Sox: Buehrle is incredibly consistent from season to season, but he's actually taken his game up a notch this year. He is posting his highest strikeout-to-walk ratio since 2008 and getting batters to pop up much more often than usual. As a result, opponents are slugging below .400 against Buehrle for just the third time in his career. Even though he's still a contact pitcher, Buehrle's improvements not only make him a starter who can be used in two-start weeks, but also in one-start weeks on occasion. With a game against the offense-starved Angels, this is one of those occasions when standard mixed league owners can keep Buehrle active.

Phil Hughes, N.Y. Yankees: Since returning from his extended DL stay in early July, Hughes has been surprisingly reliable. He has allowed two runs or fewer in all but one of his seven starts, and all but two have been quality starts. Also encouraging has been Hughes' velocity, which has exceeded 93 mph in his recent outings. There is no guarantee that he will stay in the rotation for the remainder of the season, but because the Yankees have a doubleheader with the Orioles on Aug. 27, they need to keep their six-man rotation intact for another week. Given his strong recent performance and a guarantee of him making a start next week, it's safe to use Hughes for the next scoring period.

Ivan Nova, N.Y. Yankees: Having faced the Twins on Sunday, Nova got his two-start week in Week 20, ruling out that possibility for Week 21. Still, even as a one-start option, Nova is worth using in standard mixed leagues. As he showed in his most recent appearance, Nova has really improved his command, and he's getting good results with his slider, which he has featured more often this season. There is no reason to think that Nova can't continue his recent success, especially with an upcoming start against the Orioles, who have the third-lowest on-base percentage in the American League this month.

Roy Oswalt, Houston: After getting whacked around by the Giants in his first game off the DL, Oswalt has looked more like his old self in his last two starts, both against the Nationals. That pair of games isn't enough to restore Oswalt's status as a high-end option, but he still merits a spot in standard mixed leagues, especially with decent matchups. A Week 21 tilt with Marlins qualifies as such.

Jake Peavy, Chicago White Sox: Peavy got August off to a good start, with strong outings against the Yankees and Twins, but he returned to his erratic ways last weekend. In his start against the Royals, Peavy yielded a staggering 11 line drives, including five in a row to start the fifth inning, and then he allowed three dingers to the slugging Rangers on Friday. While he has been highly hittable at times, Peavy's control hasn't been a problem, and his ability to consistently throw strikes has enabled him to limit the damage in several of his starts. In Week 21, Peavy will face the Mariners, who have scored the fewest runs in the majors this year. He should fare well enough to help owners in standard mixed league formats.

Anibal Sanchez, Florida: Sanchez endured a four-game slump in which a 32 percent line drive rate contributed to a 6.86 ERA and a .366 opponents' batting average. He turned his fortunes around this week with better starts against the Rockies and Padres. Sanchez had been awfully good prior to his slump, and his decent showings in Week 20 could be a sign that he is about to return to his usual form. National League matchups don't get much worse than a battle against the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park, so it's not a good week to trust Sanchez in shallower formats, but he's worth a shot in standard and deeper leagues.

Other Drop/Stash Targets

Trevor Cahilll, Oakland: Cahill's road ERA this season is 5.42. His ERA in a two starts against the Yankees is 14.54. Cahill starts at Yankee Stadium on Wednesday. Avoid.

Edwin Jackson, St. Louis: Jackson did not leave his pattern of inconsistency behind when he left the White Sox just before the non-waiver trade deadline. With the Cardinals, he has had two good starts, one terrible start, and two mediocre ones. One thing that Jackson has done all year long is allow hitters to square up on him, and he continues to be among the major league starters with the highest line drive rates. Jackson's ownership rate received a boost after his trade to St. Louis, but he hasn't really done much to earn that additional trust. Especially with a one-start week coming up, a large portion of his owners can drop him.

Ted Lilly, L.A. Dodgers: Lilly can only be trusted with favorable matchups, but the good news for Lilly is that, beginning next week, he is done with his toughest matchups for this season. There is bad news, too: Lilly was pulled early from his last start with a stiff neck, but he could still take his next turn in the rotation. He is currently owned in just 59 percent of the leagues on CBSSports.com, but now that he will be a reliable option going forward, owners in standard mixed leagues might as well pick him up. They just may need to stash him for the coming week. Once Lilly is healthy enough to make active, you can probably leave him in your lineup for the remainder of the season.

Charlie Morton, Pittsburgh: Morton is good enough to use in most two-start weeks, and with certain matchups, he could pay off in some one-start weeks. The Cardinals are his opponent in Week 21, and they simply have too many good bats in their lineup to make it an easy week for Morton. They can even add lefties Skip Schumaker and Daniel Descalso to their lineup, as Morton has trouble with left-handed hitters, and Schumaker and Descalso hit righties well. This is a good week to leave Morton for your NL-only leagues.

Alexi Ogando, Texas: Ogando has had a few rough starts throughout this season, but he has always managed to bounce back…that is, up until the last three weeks. Over that period, the rookie has been hit hard, compiling a 5.46 ERA over five starts, as opponents have batted .306 against him. He has already thrown 75 more innings than he did last season in the majors and minors combined, and the extra workload may be taking a toll. The mighty Red Sox lineup will be Ogando's Week 21 opponent, so it might be asking too much for Ogando to help you in a standard mixed league in this one-start week.

Rick Porcello, Detroit: Averaging just over 10 Fantasy points per start, Porcello can be helpful in two-start weeks, but his normal level of production is nowhere near enough to be of use in most mixed leagues in a typical week. Many owners picked Porcello up for two starts in Week 20, but now it's time to clear a spot for one of next week's two-start options. Start by cutting Porcello outside of deeper formats.

Tim Stauffer, San Diego: Stauffer has been one of the steadier starters this season, as he registered a quality start in 17 of his first 23 tries. That's what makes what happened to him over his last two starts entering Thursday night all the more puzzling. Normally a good ground ball pitcher, Stauffer allowed flyballs on 25 of 45 hit balls over those two starts, and eight balls left the park entirely. To put this in perspective, Stauffer had allowed just eight home runs in his first 23 starts, covering 143 innings. He did rebound against the Marlins on Thursday, but given how much the Marlins have struggled to score lately, it may be premature to trust Stauffer again. Owners need to give him a time-out in Week 21 when he faces Tim Lincecum and the Giants.

Might Not Start in Week 21

Nick Blackburn, Minnesota: Blackburn left Sunday's game against the Yankees with a right forearm strain. He will be re-evaluated on Monday, but in the mean time, Anthony Swarzak is scheduled to take Blackburn's next turn in the Twins' rotation.

Cole Hamels, Philadelphia: Hamels missed his start on Saturday against the Nationals due to shoulder inflammation, but he did get in a bullpen session. Barring a setback, he should return to start at home versus Florida on Friday.

David Huff, Cleveland: The Indians have a day off on Thursday, so they could opt to skip Huff, who has been filling in as their fifth starter. If they keep their other starters on regular rest, then Huff will not get a start in Week 21.

Zach McAllister, Cleveland: The Indians need someone to start one of their doubleheader games against the Mariners on Tuesday. McAllister had been called into spot starter duty earlier this season, and he could make this start on regular rest. Jeanmar Gomez is also a candidate for the start.

Jonathan Sanchez, San Francisco: Sanchez (ankle) was not able to make his scheduled start against Houston on Sunday, as he was replaced by Dan Runzler. He is questionable to make his start in Week 21, which would also be versus the Astros.

Anthony Vasquez, Seattle: The Mariners will need a spot starter to pitch one of their doubleheader games at Cleveland on Tuesday. Manager Eric Wedge has suggested that whoever gets called up could stay in the rotation, expanding it to six members for the remainder of the season. Vasquez would be a good candidate, as he would be sufficiently rested to start on Tuesday (his normal turn with Triple-A Tacoma was skipped on Sunday), and he has pitched well in the minors this season.

DL Watch

Tommy Hanson, Atlanta: Hanson (shoulder) was initially targeting a return from the DL on Tuesday to start at the Cubs, but he will now miss that start. He will toss a bullpen session on Monday, and is expected to follow that up with a minor league rehab start on Saturday. It appears that Hanson will return no earlier than Fantasy Week 22 (Aug. 29-Sept. 4).

Alex White, Colorado: White (finger) will be activated from the DL to make his Rockies' debut on Tuesday against the Astros.

Paul Maholm, Pittsburgh: Maholm was placed on the 15-day DL on Friday with a left shoulder strain. He will consult with Dr. James Andrews for a second opinion on Monday. There is no timetable for Maholm's return. Ross Ohlendorf will take over his spot in the Pirates' rotation.

Freddy Garcia, N.Y. Yankees: The Yankees put Garcia (finger) on the 15-day DL retroactive to Aug. 8. He is scheduled to be activated in order to make a start in Saturday's doubleheader against the Orioles.

Philip Humber, Chicago White Sox: Humber was hit in the face by a line drive in his start against Cleveland on Thursday. He was placed on the DL on Friday, though the move has been reported to be a precautionary measure.

Chris Narveson, Milwaukee: Narveson (thumb) will be activated on Monday in order to start the first game of the Brewers' doubleheader with the Pirates.

Zach Britton, Baltimore: Britton (shoulder) will return to the Orioles' rotation for Monday's game at Minnesota. He will be a two-start pitcher in Week 21, as he is also scheduled to face the Yankees on Saturday.

Stephen Strasburg, Washington: Strasburg (elbow) made a rehab start for Class A Hagerstown on Wednesday and will make another one on Monday. He is expected to make another rehab start after that, possibly at Triple-A Syracuse, and then he could potentially make his season debut for the Nationals in Week 22 (Aug. 29-Sept. 4) or Week 23 (Sept. 5-11).

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