Projections Snapshot: Throwing out first pitch on projections
For several weeks, these Projection Snapsnots have focused exclusively on hitters, but sooner or later, pitchers have to be projected, too. After all, the hitters aren't just going to hit off tees. The pitchers will be there in 2012 and they will be getting projections just as well.
As usual, I solicited your suggestions on Twitter for pitchers to feature and received no shortage of responses. While there was interest in seeing projections for some of this season's better starting pitchers, like Ricky Romero, Justin Masterson and Ervin Santana, as well as some lower-end options like John Lannan and Bruce Chen, I've opted to split the difference and go with a set of pitchers between those two tiers.
There's an agenda behind this focus on middle-to-late-round mixed league starters. It gives me a chance to gauge the draft and auction value of Neftali Feliz, whom the Rangers recently announced will join their starting rotation. As a converted reliever, Feliz will almost certainly pitch fewer innings than most mixed league starters, and in fact, I have projected him for just 170 innings next season (just one inning more than fellow Ranger reliever-turned-starter Alexi Ogando pitched this year). That alone will keep Feliz from being even a No. 3 starting pitcher in mixed leagues, but he should still be effective enough in limited innings to be drafted in those formats.
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So where exactly does Feliz fit in? Three of the pitchers suggested by Tweeters fit the bill of a No. 4 or 5 mixed league starter, so they provide a decent measuring stick for sizing up Feliz's value. Wandy Rodriguez, Doug Fister and Jeff Niemann all have track records that indicate they are worth targeting in standard mixed formats, though each achieves his success in a very different way. Rodriguez has an above-average strikeout rate for a starter and he has a knack for stranding baserunners, which is helpful for a pitcher who doesn't possess great control. Though Fister fanned more batters this season than in the past, he is still a contact pitcher who relies on avoiding walks for his success. Niemann is a league-average pitcher in almost every way, but his ability to induce popups helps him to keep his WHIP on the good side of normal.
As a reliever, Feliz has profiled as a very different pitcher from any of these three, but as with most relievers, that profile is likely to shift once he transitions to starting. Will his strikeout rate get punctured, and if so, by how much? Will his high flyball rate haunt him more with longer outings?
The graph below shows how our four starting pitchers line up in terms of their Fantasy point projections, and by clicking on each individual pitcher, you can see their year-by-year trends and projections for ERA, WHIP, wins and strikeouts. As for the logic behind the projections, I'll tackle each pitcher one-by-one just below the graph.
Doug Fister, Tigers: Fister does not project to have the lowest ERA in our group, and even though he will likely have the lowest strikeout rate by far, he should be the most productive of our pitchers, at least in Head-to-Head. Pitching to contact is actually the key to Fister's success, as it helps him to plow through lineups efficiently. He needed just 3.65 pitches per plate appearance in 2011, as compared to 3.73 for Niemann, 3.89 for Rodriguez and 4.20 for Feliz. That's why I have Fister projected for a robust 220 innings next season. Those innings will help him in Head-to-Head, and a low walk total will keep Fister's WHIP low, which will aid him in all formats.
Wandy Rodriguez, Astros: Only Feliz projects to have a higher walk rate than Rodriguez, but Wandy misses enough bats to give him the lowest projected ERA within this group. Rodriguez's value comes not only from his high K rate, but also from a consistent trend of stranding baserunners, as he has posted an above-average rate in each of the last four seasons. He may not repeat his most recent rate of 78 percent, which is why I have projected a slight ERA increase. However, his trend is consistent enough that he should be able keep his ERA under 3.60, just as he has done for four straight years. For those concerned with Rodriguez's strikeout rate, which dropped slightly last season, know that his rate rebounded after he returned from a midseason DL stint for elbow discomfort, as he struck out more than eight batters per nine innings from June on.
While Rodriguez currently projects to be slightly less valuable than Fister next season, there is a good chance that he gets traded, and that could change everything. If he winds up with a team that provides more run support and a better pitching environment, he could leapfrog Fister in the rankings.
Jeff Niemann, Rays: Niemann posted the highest ERA out of our group last season with a 4.06 mark, but take away his early season starts when he was struggling with a bad back, and he fits right in with the other three pitchers. From June 20 forward, Niemann's ERA was a more impressive 3.55, and he struck out 7.6 batters per nine innings. I'm not quite ready to assume that he can sustain a strikeout rate that is more than a strikeout per inning higher than his recent norms, so my strikeout, ERA and WHIP projections are on the conservative side. Niemann's production has also been curtailed in each of the last two years due to injuries, so I'm also counting on a relatively modest inning total of 180. Those assumptions leave Niemann a bit behind Rodriguez in projected value. Say, however, that Rodriguez gets dealt to the Rockies, and he has to pitch half of his games at Coors Field; it could be worth taking a flier on Niemann over Rodriguez in the hopes that he stays healthy and builds on his second-half success.
Neftali Feliz, Rangers: A healthier shoulder and mechanical adjustments helped Feliz to regain his form late this past season, so Fantasy owners should not take his mediocre full-season strikeout rate too seriously. Granted, relievers who can strike out a batter per inning or more don't tend to do so when stretched out over longer starting appearances (e.g., C.J. Wilson, Phil Hughes), but Feliz's high strikeout rates as a minor league starter suggest that he should easily post a higher rate than either Niemann or Fister, if not Rodriguez. Strikeouts should not be a problem for Feliz, but walks, home runs and innings could be. If we could count on Feliz to make 32 starts, he would have roughly the same overall value as Niemann, but that is a very risky assumption to make for someone who has never pitched as many as 130 innings in any season. Given that we project Niemann to be a 16th-rounder in standard mixed leagues, the safe move is to wait until the last few rounds to draft Feliz in those formats.
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