School A has played in 16 NCAA Tournaments resulting in 14 victories and a national title.
School B has played in six NCAA Tournaments resulting in zero -- seriously, ZERO! -- victories and, obviously, no national titles.
School A is UTEP.
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| Doc Sadler followed the money trail from UTEP to Nebraska this offseason. (Getty Images) |
Doc Sadler went from the first to the second this offseason. And really, he didn't have a choice.
The reason?
M-O-N-E-Y.
Sadler left a program with rich tradition for a program with no tradition. Still, primarily because of Nebraska's BCS affiliation -- and UTEP's lack thereof -- the former Billy Gillispie assistant reportedly increased his base salary from $300,000 to $700,000. So he had to go, and it's an example of how non-BCS schools will forever have a difficult time keeping their successful coaches from moving on.
Last year it was Bruce Pearl going from Wisconsin-Milwaukee to Tennessee.
This year it was Greg McDermott going from Northern Iowa to Iowa State.
Next year, it'll be somebody else. Perhaps a few somebodies. So athletic directors at the following non-BCS schools would be wise to plan ahead, as I present the 10 non-BCS coaches -- in no particular order -- most likely to move into a BCS tax bracket next spring.
(Note: Gonzaga's Mark Few, Memphis' John Calipari, George Mason's Jim Larranaga and Saint Joseph's Phil Martelli are intentionally not included. Few and Calipari are well-compensated, and they have managed to push their respective programs to the point where superseding league affiliation isn't an issue. Plus, if they were in a hurry to leave, both could have done it after last season. Larranaga will never be hotter than he was following a 2006 trip to the Final Four. That he's still at George Mason is an indication he'll be there for a while. And Martelli is a Philly guy perfectly happy in Philly. Like Calipari and Few, if he wanted to leave he could have done it already.)
1. Mark Fox (Nevada): The first rule in coaching is to get while the getting's good. Put another way, you go while you're hot because there's no guarantee of when you'll be hot again. For that reason, I'll be shocked if Fox is still at Nevada this time next year.
Assuming things go as planned, he'll be coming off three straight WAC titles and NCAA Tournament appearances. More importantly, Fox will be losing All-American candidate Nick Fazekas, and thus positioned for a likely slip in 2006-07.
Translation: It's time to go!
2. Mark Turgeon (Wichita State): Scott Spinelli made a wise career move when he left Nebraska after last season to attach himself to the rising Turgeon, whose Shockers are coming off a Sweet 16 appearance and have a legitimate shot to repeat that achievement considering four of five starters return.
Consequently, Turgeon should be on every athletic director's short list come March. As for Spinelli, he'll either be the next head coach at Wichita State or joining Turgeon at a BCS school. Either way, life is good.
3. Dana Altman (Creighton): Altman's situation is difficult to gauge because he actually has a non-BCS job that rivals many BCS jobs. The Bluejays are the class of the Missouri Valley Conference, having been to six of the past eight NCAA Tournaments. And, it's worth noting, it would have probably been seven of eight if Nate Funk hadn't been limited to just six appearances because of injury last season.
Altman reportedly makes about $800,000 a year, and Creighton draws 13,900 fans per game, a number that is -- bet you didn't know this -- greater than what Texas, Oklahoma State and Florida draw to their home games. So ... oh, never mind. If Altman wanted to leave, he could've done it by now. Better yet, why would he leave? He's off the list. Let's try No. 3 again.
3. Karl Hobbs (George Washington): Hobbs will always be mentioned for openings thanks to his success at GW, specifically last season when the Colonials went 16-0 in the Atlantic 10. Still, there are two problems. One of them is Hobbs' unusually high buyout. The other is that he isn't going 16-0 again this season, not with four starters gone.
In fact, if you're looking for the Atlantic 10 coach more likely to be a hot candidate in March, take a look at the next guy on the list.
4. Sean Miller (Xavier): Miller is an intriguing candidate who should be able to parlay a nice season into some nice offers. Three starters return from a team that went 21-11 last year, and former McDonald's All-American Drew Lavender -- an eligible transfer from Oklahoma -- is the type of point guard with which teams win league titles.
That's why Xavier should win a league title this season. If it happens, Miller will be the hottest 38-year-old on the market, and positioned for a move if he's interested in taking it.
5. Gregg Marshall (Winthrop): Marshall has been impressive at Winthrop, averaging 20.6 wins through eight seasons. He has won the Big South Conference in six of those years while also making the NCAA Tournament six times, though a victory in the Big Dance still eludes him.
If that NCAA Tournament victory comes this year -- and it could with a decent seed -- expect Marshall's name to emerge for several BCS jobs. Of course, he could accept a position and then change his mind the next day, like he did this offseason with College of Charleston. But Marshall's credentials suggest he's a fool-proof hire. Thus, it's probably a risk worth taking for some desperate athletic director.
6. Jeff Bzdelik (Air Force): Anytime a former NBA coach goes 24-7 in his first season at Air Force, people are going to pay attention. When he does it despite losing his best player (Nick Welch) to a foot injury, people have to pay attention.
Long story short, Bzdelik is likely to have another NCAA Tournament team, considering the only thing gone from last year's squad is Antoine Hood. And while that's 14.9 points per game missing, the return of Welch -- the 2005 Mountain West Conference Co-MVP -- will ease the transition, create another 20 wins and, subsequently, more interest in Bzdelik, provided there's no sophomore slump.
His situation is actually a lot like the one of ...
7. Dave Rose (BYU): Though Pearl at Tennessee probably had the best first year of any Division I coach, if somebody wanted to make a case for Rose I'd be willing to listen. The longtime Steve Cleveland assistant was nothing short of spectacular in his rookie season. The Cougars were picked to finish last in the Mountain West. Instead, they finished 20-9 overall and 12-4 in the league, a mark good enough for a second-place tie.
With four starters back, Rose has the pieces in place to improve on last season and maybe even take the MWC title. If he does, any BCS athletic director worth his country club membership would be wise to make a phone call, just to see if Rose might listen and uproot.
8. Rob Jeter (Wisconsin-Milwaukee): Jeter was a hot name following a 22-9 rookie season that ended with a trip to the NCAA Tournament, one featuring a win over Oklahoma and second-round loss to eventual national champion Florida. The former Bo Ryan assistant even interviewed for the Iowa State job, though he was ultimately passed over in favor of McDermott.
Another 22-9 mark, and Jeter won't be passed over again. But the problem is that all five starters from last year's team -- including star Joah Tucker -- are gone, meaning it's hard to imagine Jeter stacking up another stellar campaign.
Somebody in a similar predicament is ...
9. Jim Les (Bradley): The Missouri Valley is not the type of league where a team can lose its top four scorers and still challenge for a title. Alas, Les will likely realize this at some point in February.
The Braves are coming off a Sweet 16 appearance, and the program is on solid footing. Still, the losses of NBA lottery pick Patrick O'Bryant and -- more importantly, I'm betting -- Marcellus Sommerville is probably too much to overcome. On the other hand, if Les somehow manages another trip to the NCAA Tournament in what should be a rebuilding year, his name will be all over the place, though trying to lure a coach from his alma mater (Les starred at Bradley in the mid-1980s) is usually a tricky proposition.
10. John Pelphrey (South Alabama) and Travis Ford (UMass): Eventually Tubby Smith is going to grow tired of Kentucky's rabid fan base and semi-retire or take an NBA job. Who knows, it might happen after this season, considering the Wildcat faithful isn't happy with the coach's underwhelming recruiting of late. Exhibit A is this song written by OH Napier titled Final Four or Hit the Door (Please. You have to hear this. Follow the link. Thank me later).
Anyway, if Smith does indeed hit the door, two of UK's favorite sons -- Pelphrey and Ford -- could be among the candidates if they are coming off big years. Of course, they'd probably need Florida's Billy Donovan to reject the gig first. But we'll deal with that when the time comes.
