Insider | Mailbag
The college football season is winding down and all over the country NFL scouts are going from campus to campus, game to game, rating college players.
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| Matt Leinart has just about everything but a power arm. (Getty Images) |
Since it is close to the end of the college football regular season, it's a good time to take a look at the players I feel have a good chance to be taken with the first 10 picks next spring.
Naturally, a quarterback tops the list.
That's Matt Leinart of Southern California. He would have been the first player taken last year had he come out, so why should that change?
Texas quarterback Vince Young is also in the top 10, but some wonder if he can be a quarterback on the next level. The feeling here is that he can.
So enjoy the list, and we promise an update at some point in February before the combine, when we do our top 32.
By then, the scouts I talk to might change my mind on some of these players. Then again, they probably won't.
1. Matt Leinart, QB, USC: If the team with the top pick is looking for a quarterback, this is their guy. Leinart is an accurate passer who has a great command of the offense. He doesn't have a great arm, but it's good enough that he can make all the throws. Plus, he seems unflappable. The fourth-down throw he made to Dwayne Jarrett against Notre Dame was as good as it gets. Leinart will be a big-time NFL passer.
2. Reggie Bush, RB, USC: If the team picking first has a quarterback, Bush might be the choice to go No. 1 barring a trade down. A junior, he's almost surely entering the 2005 draft. Bush is explosive and can change a game with one play. There are some who say he's not big enough to handle the pounding on a regular basis, but he's 6-feet, 205. That's plenty big enough. He will be electrifying in the NFL. Take that to the bank.
3. D'Brickashaw Ferguson, T, Virginia: He is an athletic left tackle who has the feet teams love in their pass protectors. He isn't huge at 6-5, 300 pounds, but he has the frame to gain 20-30 pounds, and that shouldn't hurt his quickness. For a team like the Texans in need of a franchise left tackle, Ferguson would be a great fit.
4. DeAngelo Williams, RB, Memphis: An explosive back who leads the nation in rushing, Williams could have been a first-round pick if he had entered last year's draft as a junior. As it is, he stayed and has played even better. At 5-10, 220 pounds, he is strong and fast.
5. Jimmy Williams, CB, Virginia Tech: At 6-3, 215 pounds, Williams has great size for a corner. He has played safety in the past, so he could move inside, but the value comes outside. He can turn and run with receivers and he will be physical as a tackler. Williams is the top-rated corner in this draft, and those players are usually top 10 picks.
6. Mathias Kiwanuka, DE, Boston College:
7. Vince Young, QB, Texas: He is only a junior, but he might be on his way out. The only question about him is where does he play? Can he be another Mike Vick at quarterback, a weapon more than a passer? Or is he destined to play receiver or somewhere else? The team that takes him will give him a long look at quarterback and then go from there. He will be a playmaker, no matter where he plays.
8. Halati Ngata, DT, Oregon: A 6-4, 335-pound junior, he's a dominant player for the Ducks. He is powerful and quick and can attack the quarterback. With teams looking for big bodies inside who can rush the passer, Ngata will be a high pick. He's had a great junior year.
9. Laurence Maroney, RB, Minnesota: Anybody who has watched Minnesota play this year knows all about Maroney. He has that ability to make tacklers miss -- and look bad in doing so. At 5-11, 205, he isn't a big back, but he plays tough. And he has the home-run speed. This guy will have a big impact as a rookie, much like Cadillac Williams has for Tampa Bay.
10. Mario Williams, DE, North Carolina State: He is 6-7, 280 pounds and can rush the passer. He's much like Julius Peppers, who plays for the Carolina Panthers. Williams is a junior, but he is expected to enter the draft next April. In a league starved for big play pass rushers, he will be a high pick and could go first overall if a team is searching for a pass rusher.
Some other potential high picks: A.J. Hawk, LB, Ohio State; Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame; Mercedes Lewis, TE, UCLA; LenDale White, RB, USC; Marcus McNeil, T, Auburn; Winston Justice, T, USC, Gabe Watson, DT, Michigan; Tye Hill, CB, Clemson; Jon Scott, T, Texas.
Around the league
- When Redskins quarterback Mark Brunell was the quarterback of the high-scoring Jacksonville Jaguars offenses, he had a dynamic receiving duo to throw to in Jimmy Smith and Keenan McCardell. Smith was the deep threat, but McCardell was the better route runner. Now Brunell has a combination of the two in Washington in Santana Moss. And Moss is quicker than both of them in the short routes. "He's got the quickness, but he's also a great route runner," Brunell said. "I always thought he was quick, but he plays quicker than I expected. Plus, he can get deep. He's having a great year. He's up there with the best in the league." Moss has 38 catches for a league-high 743 yards (a 19.6 average) and five touchdowns. Moss caught just 45 passes for the New York Jets in 2004 after catching 74 in 2003. So when the deal was made for Moss to go to Washington for Laveranues Coles, the feeling in some circles -- including here -- was that the Jets got the better of the deal. Moss is proving all the doubters wrong. In his fifth season, he has developed into one of the league's best. The surprising thing about that is he's only 5-feet-10. The trend in recent years has gone to the bigger receiver, but Moss might change that. "He has no problem with the bigger corners," Brunell said. "He's so quick they have trouble handling him at the line." The Brunell-to-Moss combination is quickly becoming one of the best big-play combos. You'd be hard-pressed to find anyone who thought that would be the case two months ago. By the way, Brunell gives new quarterbacks coach Bill Musgrave a lot of credit for helping him bounce back from a bad season in 2004. Musgrave is in his first year with the team after being let go as offensive coordinator in Jacksonville. Word is Musgrave and Jaguars quarterback Byron Leftwich had a relationship that soured last season, which contributed to Musgrave leaving. Brunell, though, raves about him.
- Edgerrin James is having a big year for the Indianapolis Colts. He leads the league in rushing with 801 yards and has been the focal point of the team's offense as teams have tried to take away the passing game from Peyton Manning. The conventional thinking would be that James would now be re-signed to a long-term deal after the season by the Colts. That would likely be wrong. The Colts are expected to let James walk, which could lead him to a fat contract elsewhere. James is averaging 4.9 per carry, but he has just three runs of 20-plus yards. Considering the way teams have defended the Colts, he should have many more big plays than that. And that's the rub. James is a grinder who gets all he can from a run, but he doesn't bring the big play to the offense. Until he can rip off those explosive runs, teams will continue to defend the Colts by taking the slow death rather than have Manning and the passing game kill them quickly.
- If there is any thought that the San Francisco 49ers are set to pack it in now that they're 1-5, think again. According to a team source, the 49ers players showed they are totally behind first-year coach Mike Nolan following last week's blowout loss to the Redskins. When Nolan spoke to the team after the game, he asked them if they were still believed in what he was doing and what steps the team is taking. In unison, they all yelled, "Yes sir." After a loss like that, most players would quietly say yes. The fact they yelled it might be a good indication for Nolan as he attempts to build the 49ers into a contender.
- Giants coach Tom Coughlin is known as a tyrant, a coach players love to hate. Here's something else he should be known for: Offensive football. When Coughlin was the coach of the Jacksonville Jaguars, he had explosive offenses. Now he has one in New York. The Giants lead the league in scoring at 28.8 point per game, and Coughlin's aggressive approach is a big reason. Coughlin doesn't get the due he deserves for being an offensive wizard. The late Sid Gillman, the offensive guru of gurus, once said Coughlin one of the best offensive minds in the game. That's high praise. We tend to agree.
- The Eagles run the ball 73 percent of the time. Many in Philadelphia blame coach Andy Reid for a lack of trying. Maybe there's a reason why. Maybe it's the fact that center Hank Fraley isn't powerful enough in the middle to move people and open up running lanes. Fraley would have been no match for San Diego nose tackle Jamal Williams if the Eagles had attempted to run the ball last week. So they didn't. Instead they threw 54 passes and ran 14 times, four of those quarterback scrambles. "Fraley has trouble pushing people out," said one league scout. "He's been overrated for a while." So maybe Reid isn't so dumb after all. Maybe there's a method to his madness.
- If Mike Martz is coaching the Rams next season, it will be a major shock. It's been no secret, especially in this space, that Martz and many other key members of the front office do not get along. Martz and Jay Zygmunt, the team's president, have warred for the past couple of years. So it might come down to one or the other, and the likelihood is that Martz would lose out. If he does go, Martz would be my first choice as an offensive coordinator. The guy can call plays. Will he be a head coach again? Some day. But he might have to take a step back first. Here's a bet that says he's a better head coach, one with a thicker skin, the next time around.
- The Steelers have to be a bit concerned with right tackle Max Starks. He isn't playing well. When the Steelers let Oliver Ross go to Arizona in free-agency, the Steelers felt they could just plug in Starks. The knock on him, however, was that he was soft. So far, that label is proving true. Starks has struggled some the past two games. Reggie Hayward of the Jaguars whipped him two weeks ago and Robert Geathers got the better of him last week for the Bengals. The Steelers need to have a strong right tackle because they run the ball so much, and most teams are right-handed when they run it.
- Question to ponder: Would a team rather pay Baltimore's Chester Taylor or Jamal Lewis when both become free agents next spring? That's no such an easy answer anymore. There is growing concern that Lewis isn't the same player he was a couple of years ago, that maybe his hard-running style has slowed him some. It sure looks that way, too. Taylor has far more pop when he carries for the Ravens.
- If the Texans are going to play the rest of the season the way they did against the Colts last week, they have no chance to win. The Colts couldn't believe the Texans threw only nine passes and rarely exposed David Carr to their pass rush. He rolled out a bunch. We can understand trying to protect him, but you also have to try and win the game. Again, like we've said in the past, the front office should take the blame for the lack of a good offensive line to protect him.
