Is there a better time for a college baller’s stock to improve than the NCAA Tournament? Every fan, general manager, coach and player will be watching, and players are liable to make quantum leaps from the second round to lottery, and from out of the draft to the first round.
Remember Kirk Snyder? Didn’t think so. He blew up at the 2004 NCAA Tournament, leading Nevada to wins over Michigan State and Gonzaga, and a near upset of eventual finalist Georgia Tech. His draft value skyrocketed, he left school early (good call, Doyel) and Snyder was taken 16th by the Utah Jazz in the 2004 draft. Two years later, he displaces high school phenom J.R. Smith as the starting shooting guard on the New Orleans Hornets.
Here's our pre-tournament look at June's NBA Draft (lottery only), and we'll bookend things with a post-tourney follow in a few weeks. So take notes, and rib us later:
1. Chicago: The good news: The Bulls inherit the Knicks' top pick
this year, and it’ll be a very high one, thanks to the motley crew of
castoffs Isiah Thomas has assembled in the Big Apple. Surely, Bulls GM
John Paxson has already mailed the 'thank you' card. The bad news: The
Bulls need size like Nicole Richie needs a cheeseburger, but Texas center LaMarcus
Aldridge is supposedly staying in school. Players flip-flop all the time, and
when the lithe 6-10 center convinces head-down dribblers Daniel Gibson
and P.J. Tucker to get him the ball, Aldridge can and will impress.
We're projecting a monster regional final for Aldridge against Duke's
Shelden Williams (in a loss), sending him into the draft, and right into
the arms of an elated Tyson Chandler.
2. Charlotte: Along with praying for good health, the
injury-ravaged Bobcats kneel by the bed for offense. So here's the
question: Connecticut’s Rudy Gay is the most complete player in the draft, but can he play
shooting guard? The 6-9 Gay appears to be the ultimate small forward,
but the Bobcats already have Gerald Wallace. We'd go Gay. Wait, that
sounds funny ...
3. Portland: Amazingly, there’s good news out of the
talent-depleted Pacific Northwest: The Blazers found a taker for the
criminally selfish and supremely arrogant Ruben Patterson. Let the
rebuilding begin! But there's almost no debate: You must go with
Gonzaga's Adam Morrison. He's as close to a local as you’re going to
get, and his likeability will help repair some dignity to this
downtrodden franchise. We're not sure how Darius Miles will take the
addition of Morrison, but we're fairly certain he'll curse somebody out.
4. Atlanta: Nobody's noticed, but the Hawks have salvaged the
season. Since a horrific 5-24 start, Atlanta is 16-17. That bodes well
for next season -- if the Hawks can find a point guard and center.
Here's a bit of a surprise: Connecticut's Marcus Williams. Yes, top five
is high, but when he leads the Huskies to the national title, maybe
you'll reconsider. How about this for a sleeper: Villanova's Randy Foye.
The Big East Player of the Year is not a pure point guard, but hey,
neither was Ron Harper during the Chicago Bulls run of the 1990s.
5. Toronto: Another team on the cusp of something. Maybe.
Assuming Toronto finds a wingman for Chris Bosh (Joel Przybilla,
anyone?), and the team signs Jose Calderon as the point guard when Mike
James walks, we're going with a surprise: Duke's J.J. Redick. Yeah, he's
probably a reach here, and an early NCAA exit (it's possible) may hurt
Redick's stock. But we have Duke going to the title game, and for the
eight people in the country (including both of my parents) who have yet
to witness Redick create and drain his own shot, it's a thing of beauty.
We see him having a solid NBA career, along the lines of Bryon Scott or
Steve Kerr. Let Redick learn behind Mo-Pete next season, and take over
at shooting guard when the former MSU guard opts for free agency in the
summer of 2007.
6. Orlando: Since the Warriors failed us this year, we're already
setting our sights on a pet project for the 2006-2007 campaign. Now that
the Magic have dumped the unbelievably overrated Steve Francis, we're
ready to stump for them. The combo of Dwight Howard and Darko Milicic up
front will be around for at least a decade -- they just need a shooting
guard or small forward to join in the fun. Memphis' Rodney Carney? Works
for us. He occasionally gets lost in the swarm of talented Tigers, but
the kid is one nasty package of defense, shooting and leaping ability.
We're geeked about a potential second-round showdown between Carney and
Arkansas' Ronnie Brewer. Just hope that Bucknell doesn't spoil the party
(it will).
7. Seattle: Teams aren't as high on the foreign talent as they
were five years ago, but maybe the Sonics will take a gander at
Dirk-clone Andrea Bargnani. He's 6-11, but only 20. He's a bit thin, but this video shows the skill is already there. In two years, he could
be a 20-point-a-night scorer ... or he could be the second coming of this guy, who was, as you may recall, supposed to
be the next Dirk. Memo to Sonics management: Pass on Chris Wilcox and
we'll see you back in the Greg Oden sweepstakes lottery next year.
Duke's Josh McRoberts isn't nearly ready to come out, but if he does, he
might be a nice fit here.
8. Golden State: Our beloved Warriors. What a letdown they’ve
been. But we're not holding it against GM Chris Mullin or "Mouthy" Mike Montgomery. Just grab a defensive-minded
player, OK? A couple of options: The aforementioned Carney would be a
great fit at small forward for the inept Mike Dunleavy; and Temple's
Mardy Collins is a defense-first, very athletic small forward. Should
the Warriors decide to go big, Connecticut's Hilton Armstrong may
warrant serious consideration. (Yes, we know that's three Huskies in the
top eight, but they're that loaded). We feel Armstong's stock will
skyrocket on a run to the title, vaulting him into the lottery. If he's
not the most improved player in the nation, there better be a recount.
9. Minnesota: We've got no idea where this franchise is headed,
and we're clueless as to whether or not Kevin Garnett wants to be there. So, Kevin McHale,
can you get him some help up front? Pittsburgh’s rapidly improving
7-footer, Aaron Gray, anyone? The Panthers are a tough March read; last
year, with eventual first-rounder Chris Taft, Pitt underachieved. Will
it happen again? Connecticut’s Armstrong, or his partner in crime, 6-11
garbage man Josh Boone, may be a nice fit alongside KG. Here's another:
UNC's Tyler Hansbrough. Why not? Yes, he's destined for a great college
career, but his stock is astronomically high right now. He has a
Barkley-esque demeanor in the paint, and has a feathery touch for a big
man. At 20, he probably can't get much more impressive physically.
10. Boston: The Celtics do have trouble turning the ball over --
the second most per night in the league -– so maybe Boston needs to nab
a pure point guard. Connecticut's Williams is the best in the draft, so
we'll pencil him in here. Really, he's the only pure point guard worthy
of getting selected in the first round. It would also give the Celtics
two lefty point guards, which may be a first in NBA history. If Doc
Rivers was after Baron Davis, will he lean toward Texas' Gibson?
Although not as athletic as Davis, Gibson is skilled at getting the
basket, and he's a fantastic shooter.
