By Lawr Michaels
Special to SportsLine
With each year's College World Series comes Major League Baseball's First-Year Player Draft, and with it the speculation and teeth gnashing that have accompanied the event over the past years.
Without the publicity or glamour of the football or basketball draft -- mostly because there are so many rounds and players -- the baseball draft has also become a political game between baseball management and agents. Just a few years ago (1991), high school pitcher Brien Taylor received $1.5 million as the No. 1 selection, and the last couple of years controversies regarding J.D. Drew and money have abounded. Since both received relatively huge contracts, yet neither is a success as a professional, the glitter factor rating is understandable. Add in the factor that there are indeed so many eligible to be drafted, yet many selected don't sign right away, and it could be thought amazing that the draft gets any coverage at all.
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| Josh Beckett may be the next Texas-raised flame-thrower. (AP) | |
Nevertheless, some of the stars who will play for and entertain us in four or five years will be selected starting next Wednesday. Names like Josh Beckett and Eric Munson have become commonplace, and other top players known. Teams do have a tendency to take the best available arms first, as a dominant pitcher is a rare thing. In fact, most scouts are suggesting that Beckett and fellow high-schooler Josh Hamilton will be the first two selected.
But, what does each team really need? Well, drafts are tricky things, but let's see if we can take a stab at the major league franchises and who they might want to grab during the first or second round.
1. Tampa Bay, which drafts first overall, did well last year in selecting Ryan Rupe in the first round. Rupe, who has already hit the majors (with some success, even) leads a number of good pitching prospects in the Rays' chain. They could use infield and power help, both. A good power corner hitter, like Stanford's John Gall would be a good start.
2. Cross-state rival
Florida drafts next. The Fish have done an excellent job both drafting and when jettisoning stars, getting good young value in return. The Marlins could also use some power, but catcher is one area where they could use help in, say, Eric Munson.
3. The Tigers go third, and like the Marlins, they have done a good job drafting. Like the Rays, Detroit's 1998 first-round pick, Jeff Weaver, is already doing well in the bigs. The Tigers too could use a backstop, or a leadoff hitter like Arizona State's Willie Bloomquist.
4. Arizona selects next, and the Diamondbacks have also done an excellent job drafting. They already have a budding star in Travis Lee, and have Brad Penny and John Patterson in the wings as hurlers. The D-backs could also use some power, and they will need a third baseman in a few years. Perhaps Andrew Beinbrink.
5. The Twins are next, and they too have at least drafted -- and traded for -- a number of youngsters who are currently on their major-league roster. They could use a real power hitter, ala Kent Hrbek again, but they could also use a starter, and Josh Beckett fits in well with the young mix.
6. Another club that has proven to be more than adept at selecting talented players are the
Expos. They too have a good basis of solid young players, including several live arms and some power. They could use a middle infielder, especially one who can get on base. Miami shortstop Bobby Hill is good if Bloomquist is gone.
7. An interesting pattern has revealed itself, in that the teams that are high in the draft have mostly very young teams on their major league diamond these days. The Royals are no exception. Though they have Jeremey Giambi as a potential first sacker, they could use a third base counterpart, such as Ryan Gripp.
8. Pittsburgh, which is next, is yet another team nearly done with rebuilding. They too have fine prospects all over, in the majors and minors both. As the Bucs position player talent is so deep, they can afford to take a shot with the best available pitcher. With Josh Hamilton, they may have a hitter or a pitcher.
9. The Athletics are another franchise that is more than a veteran or two away from a title. Like the Bucs, the Athletics are deep with position players. Though they have two excellent pitching prospects nearly ready for the majors, in Tim Hudson and last year's number one selection, Mark Mulder, they too could use another arm. If Jason Jennings is available, they should grab him.
10. With J.M. Gold (the Brewers' No. 1 pick last year) and Kyle Peterson, The Brew Crew has a couple of potentially strong starters, but they can use more. Auburn outfielder Brent Schoening is a great pick.
11. The Mariners, like most teams, are absolutely struggling to build a rotation, especially following the loss of Randy Johnson. Immediate help may be on the way in the form of 1997 first-round selection Ryan Anderson, but it is likely that the M's will take a hurler as their pick Wednesday. Hamilton and Beckett will surely be selected by the time Seattle picks, but Washington local B.J. Garbe makes a lot of sense.
12. Another team that has nearly turned the corner on rebuilding is
Philadelphia. The Phils will soon augment their developing offense with last year's top overall selection, Pat Burrell. A pitcher looks good here, too. Jennings would be a good fit, but if he is gone, maybe Pepperdine product and future closer Jay Gehrke would be a strong pick.
13. The Orioles, who have been struggling under the weight of overpaid vets, have four selections in the first round this year. The No. 13 slot is theirs outright. The Birds can use a lot, and though they have some solid prospects, they can use a backstop. If Munson is there, the O's should jump on him. If not, perhaps Riverside, California's Ryan Christenson.
14. The Reds have some good youngsters coming up, like catcher Jason LaRue, and have young stars like Sean Casey, but they can use some help up the middle and at third. South Carolina shortstop Brian Roberts could help at either left side spot.
15. The Chicago White Sox have two first-round selections, and are likely to take pitchers for both spots. After all, they have a good stock of young position players like Joe Crede on the rise. Mario Ramos or Alex Santos could make good staff additions.
16. I have heard several analysts suggest that the key to successful pitching at Coors Field is strikeouts. The
Rockies should pursue hard throwers under the theory that if a batter cannot connect, he will not get a hit. Not a bad solution, and if the Rockies go that way, they will take versatile Jason Jennings, if available, or perhaps Northeast Louisiana's Ben Sheets.
17. The Red Sox get the Angels' selection (#17 overall) as compensation for losing Mo Vaughn. The Sox, who moved super outfield prospect Dernell Stenson to first base at Pawtucket, could use some power at the corners or outfield. Either Ryan Gripp or Ken Harvey, both Nebraska collegiates (Gripp went to Creighton, and Harvey to Nebraska), may prove to be a solid replacement.
18. The Orioles pick 18th as compensation for Eric Davis from St. Louis. With Calvin Pickering in the wings as a future first sacker, they will likely zero in on pitchers, hoping to strike gold, with the rest of their first round picks. Caseys Burns or Casey Fossum may still be available, as may Florida high schooler Bobby Bradley.
19. Toronto, who selects next, are clearly having trouble filling their third base needs. It would be risky to draft sophomore Xavier Nady so high, so Ryan Gripp might be a logical pick if available, or Cal State-Fullerton outfielder Ryan Owens.
20. Another team just facing the start of the rebuilding process is San Diego, which lost Ken Caminiti and gets the Dodgers' selection as compensation for Kevin Brown. The Pads will need some outfield help, and could also use pitching. Pitcher Ben Christenson, or outfielders Keith Reed or Lamont Mathews are part of the San Diego future.
21. Baltimore's third pick, compensation from Texas for Rafael Palmeiro, should be a pitcher, possibly previously mentioned Burns, Fossum or Bradley.
22. Losing Robin Ventura to the Mets affords the
White Sox a second selection. The Sox should look for a hot middle infielder, like South Carolina's Brian Roberts.
23. Baltimore's final first round pick is from the Indians, for Roberto Alomar. Another hurler is what makes sense, from those mentioned, maybe North Carolina Tar Heel Kyle Snyder.
24. The Giants will be needing corner power before long, and may not look any further than USF freshman star, Taggert Bozied. Bozied poses a signing risk, so they may go the safe route with Pat Magress.
25. Kansas City's second pick, from the Red Sox for Jose Offerman will probably see a pitcher selection. Washington's Jeff Heaverlo could still be available.
26. The Cubs, who have thin minor leagues, select next, and the pickings will be slim. Edwin Franco came from a small school (Florida International), but he could surprise.
27. The Yankees, who seem to collect every good arm they can, actually have a well-stocked minor-league system. They can gamble a little here, but a pitcher is what they will select, maybe Wake Forest's big Mike MacDougal.
28. The Padres have their own selection, then come back with the No. 29 pick from the Astros for losing Ken Caminiti. Look for more hurlers to be selected, though interesting outfielders, like SW Missouri State's Matt Cepicky and Ball State's Larry Bigbie could be available.
29. San Diego from Houston. Back-to-back picks for the Padres could mean an outfielder noted above (pick #28) or pitcher, like Jacksonville prep star Brett Myers.
30. The Cardinals finish the first round with a salvaged selection from the Braves, compensating for the loss of Brian Jordan. Look for another hurler here, as all the teams search for the golden arm. Chuck Crowder or Brian Wiley are graduating seniors, but that extra year means experience and maturity.
This year, the draft does have many good players, just no real standout, ala Kerry Wood. Maybe that is good, and that prudence in money and opportunity will dominate both the teams and the draftees. Among those teams without a first-round pick (Atlanta, Los Angeles, Texas, the Mets, and Cleveland), the remaining rounds may still be fruitful. They'll have among Brant Ust, Josh Bard, Mark Ernster, and Gerik Baxter, as the best of the rest to choose. Or, they may find that gem of the later rounds, ala Mike Piazza.