You are here: Home > MLB > Feature
Behind the Numbers

By Jacob Luft
SportsLine Staff Writer

Major milestones: Who's next?

Mark McGwire ushers in a new era of 500-home run hitters. 
Mark McGwire ushers in a new era of 500-home run hitters.(AP) 

Mark McGwire became only the 16th member of the 500-home run club when he launched his shot Thursday.

He'll have plenty of company soon enough.

The homer-happy decade of the '90s is about to show its effects on one of baseball's hallowed milestones.

Only one player, Eddie Murray, has reached the 500-home run plateau in the last 10 years. No National Leaguer has done it since 1987 (Mike Schmidt).

But in the next five years, there is a strong likelihood of 10 more players slugging their way into this exclusive club.

Here is a look at players with a decent chance:


Bombing away
Player HR Age Comment
Jose Canseco 428 35 Health a major concern
Barry Bonds 427 35 Could reach 600 easily
Ken Griffey Jr. 385 29 A mortal lock
Fred McGriff 384 35 Not slowing with age
Albert Belle 347 32 Should reach 500 easily
Rafael Palmeiro 340 34 Needs five more solid years
Juan Gonzalez 326 29 Has shot at Aaron
Sammy Sosa 315 30 At this rate, sky is limit
Frank Thomas 299 31 Could be 500 HR, 3,000-hit man
Larry Walker 255 32 Anything can happen at Coors



Baseknocks still hard to come by

Smaller parks and diluted pitching have sent home run totals skyrocketing, but they haven't had as much an impact on the 3,000-hit club.

After Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. join the club, there are two solid contenders in the foreseeable future -- Rickey Henderson and Harold Baines. After that there is a list of longshots and a handful of future Hall of Famers at least five-to-10 years away.

Three players -- Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas -- have legitimate shots at joining the ultra-exclusive 3,000-hit/500-home run club. Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray are the only current members.

Hitting away
Player Hits Age Comment
Rickey Henderson 2,759 40 Don't bet against him
Harold Baines 2,742 40 Could DH forever
Tony Fernandez 2,203 37 Probably too late already
Mark Grace 2,002 35 Needs five outstanding years
Barry Bonds 1,964 35 Might be lacking in desire
Ken Griffey Jr. 1,694 29 Has the desire and the talent
Frank Thomas 1,540 31 He's right on track



Not in this lifetime

The use of the five-man rotation and situational relievers have made the 300-win club all but unreachable even for Hall of Fame-caliber pitchers.

Roger Clemens has five Cy Young awards and five 20-win seasons. He is 58 victories away. At age 37, that may be a few too many for the Rocket.

Greg Maddux is four years younger than Clemens but 86 wins off the mark. The other great pitchers in the game today -- Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown -- are too old to make a decent run at 300.

Mike Mussina and Pedro Martinez are off to fast starts, but they will have to rattle off many more terrific seasons before becoming serious contenders.

Wins
Player Wins Age Comment
Roger Clemens 242 37 Age is catching up
Greg Maddux 214 33 Needs to keep up amazing pace
Mike Mussina 131 30 Will never happen with Orioles
Pedro Martinez 99 27 Needs a few 20-win seasons


Behind the Numbers Archive