By Jacob Luft
SportsLine Staff Writer
Major milestones: Who's next?
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| Mark McGwire ushers in a new era of 500-home run hitters.(AP) | |
Mark McGwire became only the 16th member of the 500-home run club when he launched his shot Thursday.
He'll have plenty of company soon enough.
The homer-happy decade of the '90s is about to show its effects on one of baseball's hallowed milestones.
Only one player, Eddie Murray, has reached the 500-home run plateau in the last 10 years. No National Leaguer has done it since 1987 (Mike Schmidt).
But in the next five years, there is a strong likelihood of 10 more players slugging their way into this exclusive club.
Here is a look at players with a decent chance:
Baseknocks still hard to come by
Smaller parks and diluted pitching have sent home run totals skyrocketing, but they haven't had as much an impact on the 3,000-hit club.
After Wade Boggs, Tony Gwynn and Cal Ripken Jr. join the club, there are two solid contenders in the foreseeable future -- Rickey Henderson and Harold Baines. After that there is a list of longshots and a handful of future Hall of Famers at least five-to-10 years away.
Three players -- Ken Griffey Jr., Barry Bonds and Frank Thomas -- have legitimate shots at joining the ultra-exclusive 3,000-hit/500-home run club. Hank Aaron, Willie Mays and Eddie Murray are the only current members.
Not in this lifetime
The use of the five-man rotation and situational relievers have made the 300-win club all but unreachable even for Hall of Fame-caliber pitchers.
Roger Clemens has five Cy Young awards and five 20-win seasons. He is 58 victories away. At age 37, that may be a few too many for the Rocket.
Greg Maddux is four years younger than Clemens but 86 wins off the mark. The other great pitchers in the game today -- Randy Johnson, Kevin Brown -- are too old to make a decent run at 300.
Mike Mussina and Pedro Martinez are off to fast starts, but they will have to rattle off many more terrific seasons before becoming serious contenders.