The World Series champs just added the top free-agent starting pitcher to their already strong rotation. The signing of Mike Mussina has prompted many to draw an apparently logical conclusion -- the Yankees are the team to beat next season.
"Adding Mussina upgrades the Yankees' rotation from superb to sensational, and immediately positions the three-time defending world champions as the favorite to win their fourth consecutive title," wrote David Lennon and Jon Heyman in Newsday.
George King of the New York Post took it a step further.
"Signing Mussina, immediately creates a wide gulf between the Yankees and Red Sox in the AL East and makes the Yankees a heavy favorite to win the World Series, no matter who comes out of the NL."
Is all this true? Let's first examine how the Yankees compared to the best teams in the American League last season.
The chart shows the runs scored and runs allowed per game averages for the top five AL clubs. Each team's won-lost record is also given. In addition to the four playoff participants, the Indians are also included because they narrowly missed the postseason and actually had a better record than the Yankees.
The teams are ranked by the run difference per game by which they out-scored their opponents.
| Scoring margin |
| |
RPG |
RAPG |
Diff. |
W-L |
| Chi. White Sox |
6.04 |
5.18 |
+ .86 |
95-67 |
| Oakland |
5.88 |
5.05 |
+ .83 |
91-70 |
| Cleveland |
5.86 |
5.04 |
+ .82 |
90-72 |
| Seattle |
5.60 |
4.81 |
+ .79 |
91-71 |
| NY Yankees |
5.41 |
5.06 |
+ .35 |
87-74 |
The Yankees topped their opponents by a considerably smaller margin than the other teams. Not surprisingly, their won-lost record was also the poorest of the group.
The Yankees pitching staff was not the problem. They allowed more runs per game than three of the other clubs, but their figure was just slightly higher than two of them. However, their runs scored per game figure was the worst of the group.
Let's say the addition of Mussina will enable the Yankees to lower their runs allowed figure by half a run per game -- a very generous estimate. Their average margin of victory would jump to 0.85. That only pulls them about even with the other teams.
The Yankees' strong postseason has camouflaged their lack of dominance in 2000. This is evident from their runs scored and allowed numbers, as well as their won-lost record. They played just well enough to reach the postseason, then turned it on when they got there.
There are other factors to keep in mind as well. The Bombers will probably start the season without free agents Jeff Nelson and Denny Neagle, and possibly David Cone as well. Both Neagle and Cone pitched poorly for the Yanks in 2000, but they had been solid in previous seasons.
Nelson would be a key loss if he does sign elsewhere. The Yankees' bullpen had its problems even with Nelson last season. The return of Ramiro Mendoza could help in this area, though he might also be needed as the fifth starter.
Furthermore, the Yankees' offense has been in steady decline. Here are their runs scored averages compared to the AL averages for the past three seasons.
| Scoring margin: Yankees vs. AL |
| |
RPG |
AL RPG |
Diff. |
| 1998 |
5.96 |
5.01 |
+ .95 |
| 1999 |
5.56 |
5.17 |
+ .39 |
| 2000 |
5.41 |
5.29 |
+ .12 |
The Yankees barely topped the league average in 2000. They ranked sixth in the AL in runs scored last year after placing third in 1999 and first in 1998.
Their hitters performed better in the second half of 2000. And, of course, they came alive when it counted in October, but what will happen in 2001?
While the Mussina signing is huge, other top AL clubs figure to help themselves as well this offseason. What if the Indians, who have already inked Ellis Burks, acquire another big name or two? And there's certainly no guarantee the Yankees will win the AL East, especially if the Red Sox sign Manny Ramirez.
The Mussina signing doesn't make the Yankees the team to beat, merely one of the teams to beat.