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Behind the Numbers: NBA Draft

By Steve Fall
Special to SportsLine.com

Top picks Kwame Brown, Tyson Chandler, and Eddy Curry all have incredible talent and potential. But how long will it take these players to make a contribution?

At least one NBA executive seemed to think it would be quite some time before these high school players would make an impact.

"None of those players are going to help us for the next three or four years," said Hawks President Stan Kasten shortly before the draft.

Already loaded with youth, the Hawks opted to trade the draft's third pick in a package that landed Shareef Abdur-Rahim. You can't question the Hawks' decision, since the deal rounds out a talented and versatile front line featuring Abdur-Rahim, Theo Ratliff, and Toni Kukoc. They could take a huge step forward next season.

But are Kasten and some other NBA execs on the money in thinking the high schoolers won't contribute until their fourth or fifth season? Does this mean Jerry Krause can look forward to several more trips to the NBA Lottery?

From 1989 through 2000, 12 players were selected directly from high school. How did these players fare in their second season? Two of them -- Leon Smith and Korleone Young -- never played a second season. Darius Miles and DeShawn Stevenson, the two high school players taken in last year's draft, have yet to experience their second campaign. The remaining eight players are ranked in the chart by points per game. (Note: Shawn Kemp was actually drafted out of junior college, but he never played a game and then declared for the draft).

Second-Season Performance of High School Selections

Player Gr GS MPG APG BPG RPG PPG
Kevin Garnett 77 77 38.9 3.1 2.12 8.0 17.0
Kobe Bryant 79 1 26.0 2.5 0.51 3.1 15.4
Shawn Kemp 81 66 30.1 1.8 1.52 8.4 15.0
Tracy McGrady 49 2 22.6 2.3 1.35 5.7 9.3
Rashard Lewis 82 8 19.2 0.9 0.44 4.1 8.2
Al Harrington 50 0 17.1 0.8 0.18 3.2 6.6
Jermaine O'Neal 60 9 13.5 0.3 0.97 3.4 4.5
Jonathan Bender 59 7 9.7 0.5 0.47 1.3 3.3

Kevin Garnett, Kobe Bryant, and Kemp all averaged at least 15 points per game in their second seasons. Tracy McGrady, Rashard Lewis, and Al Harrington all made some nice contributions off the bench in their sophomore seasons.

Lewis improved tremendously over the course of his second year. He upped his scoring average to 15.4 in the playoffs. After starting just eight regular season contests, he started all five Sonics' postseason games.

According to the chart, Jermaine O'Neal struggled in his second season. He's often cited as an example of a high school player that took some time to blossom. After four years of limited playing time in Portland, O'Neal finally emerged this past season. Or was it really just a case of finally getting an opportunity? Here are his second and fifth season's numbers expressed per 48 minutes.

Jermaine O'Neal

  MPG FG Pct. B/48 R/48 P/48
2nd Season 13.5 48.5% 3.45 11.9 16.0
5th Season 32.6 46.5% 4.14 14.4 18.9

Although his stats were better in his fifth year, they weren't that much better. Perhaps O'Neal was ready in his second season, but was buried on the Blazers' bench.

Miles should become the next high-school player to make big contributions in his second season. The 6-9 Miles averaged 9.4 points and 5.9 rebounds while playing 26 minutes per game as a rookie.

So far, Garnett is the only high school player to score in double figures as an NBA rookie. That could change next season.

20-10 Vision

The Bulls paid a heavy price for the opportunity to pair Chandler with Curry. Elton Brand is a rare player that averages 20 points and 10 rebounds per game. Only six players managed to do this last season.

2000-01 Season

  PPG RPG
Shaquille O'Neal 28.7 12.7
Chris Webber 27.1 11.1
Tim Duncan 22.2 12.2
Kevin Garnett 22.0 11.4
Antonio McDyess 20.8 12.1
Elton Brand 20.1 10.1

Brand, Garnett, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber and Tim Duncan also went 20-10 in 1999-00. Only six men topped these figures that season as well. Abdur-Rahim, another player that headed elsewhere on Draft Day, joined the aforementioned players.

Amazingly, Brand reached these levels in his first two seasons.

The Clippers, who ranked 21st in the league in scoring, sure could use Brand's offense. Having placed 10th in rebounds per game, they're in less need of his board work. On the other hand, you have to wonder what will happen to the Bulls. They ranked last in both categories in 2000-01.

Even More Numbers

136: Made three-pointers to lead the nation by Rashad Phillips of Detroit, who went undrafted despite the rule changes allowing zone defenses next season.

69.2%: Field goal percentage for Raptors' number one pick Michael Bradley last season at Villanova.

1: Lottery pick (Shane Battier) from the ACC in the past two drafts. Four ACC players went in the 1999 lottery, and Duke alone had four of the top 14 picks.



   

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