St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals said all along they couldn't afford to replace Mark McGwire with Jason Giambi. They couldn't afford to shell out money for a slugging outfielder like Juan Gonzalez or Moises Alou, either.

Given the state of the NL Central, they didn't have to.

For about $4 million less per year than what the Yankees will pay Giambi, St. Louis hired proven clutch performer Tino Martinez -- possibly the only first baseman available who could handle the pressure of filling McGwire's spot -- and finally picked up a power closer in Jason Isringhausen. Only the Cubs added more talent offensively among division foes with Moises Alou, and no other team in the division acquired an impact pitcher.

Fortune favored GM Walt Jocketty the past two seasons. His trade for Jim Edmonds in 2000 proved better than he could've imagined, bringing an eventual 40-homer slugger to St. Louis for a fluke starter in Kent Bottenfield. Last year, Jocketty replaced Fernando Tatis with Albert Pujols, a find out of Class A who amazed team officials pretty much all year. Granted, Jocketty's karma ran out with Rick Ankiel's control, but he's still living well.

This time, Jocketty is banking on Martinez putting together consecutive stellar seasons. Though Tino has six 100-RBI seasons in the past seven years, he has never posted back-to-back 30-homer campaigns. He has posted consecutive seasons with at least a .500 slugging percentage just twice -- 1994-95 and 1997-98.

That said, don't bet on bad luck following Jocketty.

Best move: Isringhausen's signing by no means guarantees bullpen stability. His second half of last season with Oakland proved he still lacks the consistency and control to be considered among the majors' best closers. Converting four out of every five chances works well for a free-throw shooter, but not for a closer on a World Series contender. However, Isringhausen provides an intimidation factor that Dave Veres, for all his effectiveness, simply lacks. Veres, meanwhile, can shift back to pitching some of the best setup work in the league while spelling Isringhausen on occasion. The rest of an already effective bullpen bumps down.

Offseason mess: Tony La Russa insists that Albert Pujols will play third base full time next season. Doing so, however, bumps Placido Polanco from third, where he led the NL with a .985 fielding percentage. Instead, Polanco will spend most of his time in left field but also spell regulars around the infield. In other words, he'd do much of Pujols' defensive job last season. The argument here isn't that Pujols isn't a good third baseman; La Russa argues that he's Gold Glove caliber there. However, there's no guarantee Polanco can do the same thing and remain an offensive threat batting second in the lineup.

Preseason strength: If the Cards find an effective fifth starter -- i.e., if Ankiel shows impeccable control this spring -- they'll have one of their best pitching staffs since the days of John Tudor and Joaquin Andujar. Matt Morris and Darryl Kile won back-to-back games four times last season and two more times when starting in the same series. Woody Williams went 9-3 with a 2.83 ERA after the All-Star break. Bud Smith had eight quality starts, including his no-hitter, in 14 starts down the stretch.

Still need help: The bench isn't what it used to be, which is one reason why Polanco is looking at everyday utility play. His potential platoon mates in left include Japanese import So Taguchi, whose comparison to Jason Kendall isn't that flattering these days, and Kerry Robinson, who looks like a speedy holdover from the Whitey Herzog era. Miguel Cairo is effective as a defensive replacement but a lifetime .200 pinch-hitter.

Coming attraction: Unless the next Pujols makes the leap from Class A, the Cardinals aren't likely to find another rookie sensation. Triple-A wasn't high on prospects, although big right-hander Josh Pearce could take his sinking fastball to the major leagues if he improves his control and avoids the home-run ball. He threw 184 innings last season between two levels.

Offseason verdict: Considering how well St. Louis performed with little contribution from Big Mac, they should theoretically improve if Martinez can at least hit .250. If one more effective starter emerges to replace Dustin Hermanson, the Cards could threaten the 100-win mark. Otherwise, they should still near 95 victories.

Houston Astros

The view on the Astros' grounded hot stove season has two takes. Either the Astros are going cheap despite a new ballpark, or they're going young because their prospects are that good.

The past few years have proven Houston management right on the latter.

Exit Carl Everett two years ago; enter Richard Hidalgo. Out go Mike Hampton and Jose Lima, to be replaced by Wade Miller and Roy Oswalt. Lance Berkman made Derek Bell a distant memory.

This year's conundrum: Can Daryle Ward succeed Moises Alou? Considering how many trade proposals Gerry Hunsicker turned down for Ward, he'd better. Ward has driven home 116 runs in four major-league seasons; Alou averaged 115 RBI per season during his three-year stay in Houston.

Adam Everett is expected to push defensive quagmire Julio Lugo for playing time at shortstop. Morgan Ensberg could easily steal third-base duties from Chris Truby. Both Everett and Ensberg are well-regarded prospects. With that kind of problem solving, Houston doesn't need free agents.

Best move: C.J. Nitkowski carries a bit of a risk after two disastrous seasons between the Tigers and Mets. However, he provides the Astros with their best left-handed relief option aside from closer Billy Wagner. The hope is that last season, when he allowed a .293 average to left-handed hitters, was a fluke. He's also a much-needed veteran in a bullpen that lost Mike Jackson and Mike Williams and now has young, wild Octavio Dotel in a critical role.

Offseason mess: Nothing demonstrates the Astros' defensive problems in the outfield like signing Brian L. Hunter to $2 million a year. Houston was left with Berkman in center last summer when Hidalgo was injured, and the results included an inside-the-park home run by Marlins backup catcher Mike Redmond. Houston's outfield arrangement is strictly for offensive purposes until Hunter can make his fortunes as a late-inning defensive replacement, so keep those groundball-inducing sinkers handy.

Preseason strength: Houston's rotation is stocked with talented young arms. Miller and Oswalt helped dispel the notion that no pitcher can tame Enron (someone change that name ASAP) Field. Either could start Opening Day without argument. Shane Reynolds provided veteran presence last season but could contribute a whole lot more in 2002 with knee surgery a year behind him. Dave Mlicki provided just enough pitching to go 7-3 in a half of a season for the Astros. Then they can pick their hot prospect for the fifth spot. Tim Redding heated up in early summer, while Carlos Hernandez impressed enough in his three starts to earn notice when he returns from rotator cuff surgery.

Still need help: Jimy Williams steps into a young, tight-knit Astros clubhouse after watching his veteran Red Sox clubhouse disintegrate a year ago. He'll have no time for adjustment on a squad with a win-now mentality. Hopefully Williams remembers enough of the National League from his days as Bobby Cox's right-hand man in Atlanta to handle the adjustment.

Coming attraction: Everett no longer ranks among the best talent in the Astros' system after showing a weak offensive game. However, his consistent defense never looked so good after Lugo botched two grounders in their Division Series meltdown against the Braves. The 24-year-old Everett has the speed and the walks to take over the leadoff spot if he can keep his average above .250.

Offseason verdict: Hard to tell because of the abundance of youth among Houston's core players. But given Ward's potential and Dotel's emergence, they didn't hurt themselves more than a couple games.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs could have two rookies starting up the middle between second baseman Bobby Hill and center fielder Corey Patterson. Their starting catcher played just 79 games last year and couldn't break .200. Their best answer for a proven veteran in the rotation is Jon Lieber, a career sub-.500 pitcher until last season.

It would be another miserable winter for the Cubs if Sammy Sosa hadn't picked up the phone and called his good friend Moises Alou. The Cubs instead have their most fearsome trio of power hitters since Andre Dawson, Leon Durham and Keith Moreland combined for 103 home runs in 1987. To the Cubs' defense, Sosa teamed with Henry Rodriguez and Jose Hernandez for 120 in 1998.

Chicago welcomed the Alou move so warmly that even the controversial Wrigley Field renovation plan, with its rooftop-shrouding bleacher expansion, met with less opposition than earlier in the offseason. Translation: There's no objection to bringing in more money for the team, as long as the cash is spent to improve it.

However, the Cubs might have placed so much emphasis on improving Sosa's offensive support that they left the pitching staff exposed to other teams' heavy hitters. In that case, they could look less like last season's near-spoilers and more like that last-place 1987 team.

Best move: Letting Alou fall into their lap. Once Rondell White left for the Yankees, the Cubs had the need for a power-hitter, the opening in left field and Sosa's sentimental value to become Alou's best fit. All they needed was the money, and poof -- Cubs' fans no longer needed to fear a Chuck Knoblauch sighting.

Worst offseason mess: The Cubs' middle infield duo will be new for 2002. It was portrayed as a financial issue, but Gutierrez signed for less than $4 million a year with the cost-cutting Indians, while Eric Young went to the Brewers for $2.5 million a year. Alex Gonzalez will make close to $5 million to take Gutierrez's place, provided better defense but a poorer bat. Delino DeShields, Chris Stynes and rookie Hill will battle for time at second base.

Preseason strength: If Patterson finally fulfills his potential, the Cubs will boast an offensive powerhouse in the outfield. Sosa and Alou on the corners represent two-thirds of a treacherous 3-4-5 trio in the lineup. They could pair up for 90 home runs between Wrigley and the rest of the homer-friendly NL Central.

Still need help: The starting rotation after Lieber and Kerry Wood could be in trouble if Juan Cruz suffers a sophomore slump, Jason Bere reverts to previous form or Julian Tavarez pitches as expected. The Cubs' decision not to re-sign Kevin Tapani tore a hole in the middle of the staff that ex-Marlins lefthander Jesus Sanchez can't fill. Unflashy prospect Mike Meyers might be ready to claim a spot.

Coming attraction: Hill will become the Cubs' everyday second baseman and leadoff hitter sometime this year when Don Baylor and Andy MacPhail think he's ready. His first season in the Cubs' farm system produced the expected dropoff from his gaudy numbers at the University of Miami and the independent Newark Bears. But the 23-year-old switch-hitter is undeniably a speed demon with a sharp eye at the plate.

Offseason verdict: Maybe a few games improvement off their 88-win total from 2001, but the questions in the rotation could prove their last barrier to a 90-win season.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers spent most of the hot stove season as the Mets' second choice.

They were the assumed destination for Matt Lawton, whom they coveted for some reason, before the Mets pulled the Roberto Alomar deal. They waited for months on a deal to send Jeromy Burnitz to the Mets, only to be stalled while New York tried its best to work out a swap for San Diego's Bubba Trammell. Finally, the Mets ran out of options and took Milwaukee's sluggers off of the Brewers' hands.

The Brewers have invested enough money in their young players -- and made enough of a flop with Jeffrey Hammonds last year -- that they wouldn't be major players on the free-agent market this time. Not until the Burnitz trade, though, did the rest of the league realize how serious baseball's most profitable team in 2001 was about unloading a player due $11 million in 2003.

Best move: Letting go of Jimmy Haynes looked brilliant until GM Dean Taylor topped that by scooping Eric Young from the free-agent scrap heap. His subpar 2001 season has been taken as a sign of advancing age, which with his defense made him completely unwanted by the rest of the league. Yet at age 34, Young has the physical conditioning and natural ability to remain one of the NL's better leadoff threats. Last season was the first time since his rookie year that he tallied more strikeouts than walks. Considering Tony Fernandez passed for a leadoff man in Milwaukee last season, Young is worth the risk of a two-year contract.

Offseason mess: Take Burnitz, please. The Brewers set a record for strikeouts last season and had to unload one of their free swingers. Still, with Burnitz and D'Amico headed to New York, it seemed a steep price for a much-needed but mediocre left-hander in the rotation and a platoon outfielder they gave up in 1999.

Preseason strength: Even with Burnitz gone, Milwaukee has enough power in its lineup to force slugfests on a regular basis and eat through an opponent's bullpen over a three- or four-game series.

Still need help: Chad Fox, who suffered arm surgeries like running backs collected knee operations, is the best option at closer until Curtis Leskanic returns. After that, Leskanic's inconsistency still puts the bullpen in shambles. Taylor has to find a power arm sturdy enough for short use in the bullpen for those sporadic occasions when Milwaukee has a short lead to protect late.

Coming attraction: Nick Neugebauer gave fans a six-inning, 11-strikeout glimpse of his talent before shoulder surgery ended his August stint. When he can control his fastball, curve and changeup at the same time, he'll dominate an opponent. He struck out 149 Double-A hitters in 107 innings last season, but also walked 52.

Offseason verdict: About the same as last year.

Cincinnati Reds

Remember the days when Jim Bowden had spending money?

The Reds' transaction-happy general manager spent much of the 1990s trying to find jewels from presumed washed-up major leaguers like Ron Gant, Eric Davis and Deion Sanders. Now, the Reds' budget -- currently around $43 million -- heading into their final season at Cinergy Field doesn't even allow for bargain hunting with Ken Griffey Jr. and Barry Larkin holding lucrative deals.

Bowden bid farewell to Pokey Reese, Dmitri Young, Pete Harnisch and Dennys Reyes for pure financial reasons. He didn't receive much in return; even Juan Encarnacion placed a budgetary cramp on the organization.

What's left in Cincinnati is a team comprised of the very wealthy (Griffey, Larkin), the relatively poor (such as Brady Clark and Hector Mercado), the technically poor (Adam Dunn and Austin Kearns received their riches when they were signed their first pro deals) and little in between.

Sean Casey and the Reds haven't made much progress on a long-term contract. Closer Danny Graves has pitched 282 innings over the past three years and is wearing down. Aaron Boone, a dependable run producer without the glamorous power expected at third base, always seems to be renting his starting spot.

The Reds and Jim Bowden are in the unusual position of rebuilding, this one a multi-year project leading into the opening of their new stadium in 2003.

Best move: Owner Carl Lindner has the majors' quickest, tightest death grip on his wallet. He's held on all winter, leaving GM Jim Bowden with a stock excuse for every question about a potential signing or trade: "The money isn't there."

Worst offseason mess: The Reds' flirtation with Jeff Shaw was doomed right about the time Shaw said he'd sign with Cincinnati for less than market value. His proposal was $1.5 million next season and another $4.5 million deferred. Bowden said he was interested, but he never countered that proposal. That's how far off the term "less than market value" became, and how financially hamstrung the Reds have become after giving Griffey and Larkin fat contracts.

Preseason strength: The Reds have one of the best outfield mixes around. Griffey not only provides leadership in the clubhouse, he remains a defensive stud with enough range to make up for the inexperience on the corners. To the right, Dunn not only boasts frightening power and size but a cannon arm. To the left, Kearns has a better arm according to Reds scouts. Two 21-year-old phenoms flank a legend in center. Then come trade acquisitions Ruben Mateo and Encarnacion, both of whom were once tagged for stardom but have yet to translate their five-tool potential into big-league success.

Still need help: That's not a starting rotation; that's a collection of castoffs. Only Lance Davis and Jose Acevedo came up from the Reds organization. Elmer Dessens is an ace by default, a fourth starter at best on most other teams. Jim Brower and Seth Etherton are fill-in arms at best. Chris Reitsma has to prove that his decent first half last season wasn't a fluke.

Coming attraction: Kearns was actually rated higher than Dunn on the Reds' top prospect list a year ago after homering 27 times and driving in 104 runs at Class A in 2000. Injuries stalled his progress last summer before pummeling Arizona Fall League for a .371 average. If Dunn moves into the heart of the order, it'll be tempting to put Kearns in Dunn's old prime spot hitting in front of Griffey.

Offseason verdict: No improvement, no regression. Even without Pete Harnisch, the Reds can't receive much less from the rotation than they did in 2001.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Dave Littlefield ended the 2001 season looking over his club's roster and wondering where he could possibly begin rebuilding.

The team's weakest areas -- first base, outfield and starting pitching -- are constrained from overhaul by fat contracts and injuries. Even with Aramis Ramirez's emergence and Pokey Reese's signing, Pittsburgh's infield will rank among the weaker groups in the league until Kevin Young and Pat Meares go away when their contracts end. Derek Bell's signing little more than a year ago cast a giant shadow over the organization and its approach to improving a team in a small market. Ryan Vogelsong and Armando Rios, the two players Littlefield acquired from the Giants for Jason Schmidt and John Vander Wal, both suffered season-ending injuries.

Pittsburgh's needs are so great that Littlefield had to at least listen to offers for Brian Giles with the idea that a team could offer him so many prospects in so many areas that he couldn't refuse. He never quite received such an offer, but while the White Sox were shrugging off the idea of trading Carlos Lee and Jon Garland for Giles, they found a veteran pitcher on the market in Todd Ritchie.

And the Pirates found themselves more than a quarter of a pitching staff.

Kip Wells has the talent to become a first or second starter. Given the damaged arms on the staff, he might be the top starter now. Sean Lowe is a cheaper right-handed version of Terry Mulholland, providing versatility in the bullpen plus a surprisingly effective arm at the bottom of the rotation. Josh Fogg has a wide repertoire of pitches and an intelligent approach to relief.

The Pirates aren't much better after a late spurt of winter moves. But they're at least deeper and more talented in pitching, even if they have no idea who they'll send to the mound on Opening Day. They're also more confident that the money they spent this offseason was for good reason, since their lone free-agent signing, Mike Williams, was their closer until the end of July.

Best move: As much as the Pirates received in the Ritchie trade, it can't match the humor value of the Williams saga. First, the Pirates traded Williams to Houston because they knew the market for closers and didn't want to lose him for nothing as a free agent. Williams worked setup duty in Houston, then found no team willing to sign him for decent money as a closer ... except the Pirates, who never filled his vacancy long-term. So by subletting Williams to the Astros for two months, the Pirates received talented young pitcher Tony McKnight.

Worst offseason mess: The Bucs haven't gone anywhere in negotiations with Josias Manzanillo, the high-strung righty setup man who went from effective to dominant this season. He won't come close to the riches that bigger-name relievers are earning on the market this winter; he's 34 years old and bounced around eight other systems before Pittsburgh gave him a chance. Letting Manzanillo go would likely force the Pirates go with Mike Fetters in middle relief, provided he takes back that laughable trade demand.

Preseason strength: The Pirates' three solid hitters form a line from home plate to left field, from catcher Jason Kendall to third baseman Aramis Ramirez to Brian Giles. If Kendall can recover from last season's offensive struggles to reach base more often, if not find more power, he'll team with Giles and Ramirez to form a potent 2-3-4 trio in the Pittsburgh order.

Still need help: Middle infield, where the Bucs have plenty of bodies but no punch at the plate. Jack Wilson, Meares, Abraham Nunez, Rob Mackowiak, Mendy Lopez, Warren Morris and Enrique Wilson batted a combined .231 for the Pirates last season. Reese posted similar stats last season in Cincinnati, and his fly ball tendencies won't play well in PNC Park. Mike Benjamin will be back after missing all of last season, but that's not much consolation. This group was so bad that the team picked up Lopez. If they're this desperate, move Kendall to second base instead of the outfield.

Coming attraction: J.R. House probably won't win the catching job out of spring training, but if the Pirates are serious about moving Kendall from behind the plate, House will be receiving a call soon after.

Offseason verdict: They're better on talent alone, but with so many young players they'll be lucky to earn 70 wins. Fortunately, the Reds might be worse.